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» Calculation of Construction
   Costs for Building Projects
   using @RISK

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» Sharing Simulation Models
   with Function Swap in @RISK

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Attracting over 125 delegates, the April event in London was a big success. We look for-ward to exciting presentations at the next three conferences, scheduled around the world.
» Sydney: 20-21 Oct
» Las Vegas: 4-5 Nov
» Lima, Perú: 9-10 Nov

» North America
Seattle: 3-5 August
Toronto: 17-18 August
Denver: 1-3 Sept
Charlotte, NC: 14-15 Sept
Montreal: 28-29 Sept
Boston: 12-13 Oct
Chicago: 26-28 Oct
Dallas: 3-4 Nov
Las Vegas Conference:
   4-5 Nov
Richmond: 16-17 Nov
Redondo Beach, CA: 1-2 Dec
Atlanta: 13-14 Dec

» Asia-Pacific
Brisbane: 25-26 August
Sydney Conference:
  20-21 October
Melbourne: 10-11 November
Perth: 1-2 December
Sydney: 8-10 December

» Latin America
Panamá, Panamá:
   21-23 de julio
Bogotá, Colombia:
   28-30 de julio
Lima, Perú, Conferencia:
   9-10 de noviembre

» Brasil
Rio de Janeiro:
   20-22 de julho (@RISK
    for Project)
   17-19 de agosto
   25-27 de agosto (Project)
   20-22 de outubro
   9-11 de novembro (Project)
São Paulo:
    21-23 de setembro (@RISK
    for Project)
    28-30 de setembro
    26-28 de outubro (Project)
    23-25 de novembro



» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
PART I
3-4 Aug, 09.00am-
    13.00pm BST
9-10 Sept, 1-5pm ET
11-12 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

PART II
14-15 Sept, 09.00am-
    13.00pm BST
20-21 Sept, 1-5pm ET
22-23 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite
PART I
10-11 August, 11am-3pm ET
5-6 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
7-8 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

PART II
23-24 August, 11am-3pm ET
19-20 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
20-21 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

» Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
6 August, 11am-3pm ET

» Decision-Making and Uncertainty for Project Managers
21 Sept, 09.00am-
   13.00pm BST

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!


The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit


The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
» @RISK for Excel
» @RISK for Project
» @RISK for Six Sigma


Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets


Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets


Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets


The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

Financial Times, Oliver Wyman:
Better Risk Implementation Needed

The Financial Times and Oliver Wyman, an international management consulting firm, recently collaborated on a research project on emerging risks. The research was based on a comprehensive Fortune 1000 executive survey and focused on new risks facing global organizations, the expected impacts on business and the methods used to identify and assess risks.

The survey confirms that, in the words of one Chief Risk Officer respondent, “It’s the implementation of risk management that failed, not the practice itself.” This is highlighted in the tools and methods being used versus what should be used. The survey made clear that not nearly enough firms are implementing critical quantitative practices such as probabilistic analysis, simulation, scenario analysis, and decision trees – all techniques found in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. It also indicated that where such methods were used, they were among the more effective techniques.

» Learn more about the DecisionTools Suite
» Download the white paper, entitled
   “Emerging Risks: Strategic Decision Making in the Face of Uncertainty”
» Read more about the paper

INFORMS Analytics:
Monte Carlo Tops Decision Analysis Methods

According to Analytics magazine, published by INFORMS, Monte Carlo simulation is one of the most effective methods for decision and risk analysis. The article, entitled “Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models” by Douglas Hubbard and Douglas Samuelson, examines decision analysis methods that merely make people feel better about their decisions with those that produce measurable improvements over time. According to the authors:

“The use of Monte Carlo modeling methods appears to outperform soft risk analysis methods when applied to exploratory oil companies or NASA space missions (Hubbard 2009)…In over a hundred missions, the Monte Carlo simulations and historical models consistently outperformed the project scientists and engineers (who used a ‘softer’ ordinal scoring method) in the forecasts of costs, schedule and mission failure risks.”

» Learn more about @RISK
» Read the full article

Palisade is pleased to announce its 2010 Conference on Risk Analysis, Applications, and Training. This year we’re moving to a fantastic new location where risk analysis is performed around the clock – Las Vegas! The event will be held November 4-5, 2010 at the Monte Carlo Resort and Casino on the Vegas Strip. Every year the Palisade conference has grown in attendance and scope, and we are building on that success with another great program filled with real-world case studies, software training, and model building. There will be something for everyone at the Palisade Conference, with sessions drawing on expert experience in fields such as energy, finance, insurance, manufacturing, project management, health care, and much more. The latest versions of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite software will be featured, as well as a sneak peek at what’s coming next.

This is one of a global series of Palisade Risk Conferences taking place in London, Sydney, Lima, and Las Vegas in 2010.

» Register today
» Call for Papers: Contact Jameson Romeo-Hall at
   jromeo-hall@palisade.com if you are interested in presenting

Following the resounding success of our last Palisade Risk Conference in Sydney, which attracted over 60 attendees from industry, academia and government, Palisade is pleased to announce the 2010 Palisade Risk Conference which will take place on 20-21 October 2010. The location will be at The Radisson Plaza Hotel Sydney. We have attracted a number of outstanding presentations in past events and look forward to bringing more interesting presentations this year surrounding various applications of our modelling and decision support tools.

This is one of a global series of Palisade Risk Conferences taking place in London, Sydney, Lima, and Las Vegas in 2010.

» Register today
» Call for Papers: Contact Mark Meurisse, Managing Director, at
   mmeurisse@palisade.com if you are interested in presenting

Upcoming Webcasts
Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse mit
@RISK und der DecisionTools Suite – Webinar
Präsentiert von Stephan Beeusaert, Palisade Corporation
Diese Live-Veranstaltungen sind so konzipiert, Ihnen eine Einführung in die probabilistische Analyse anzubieten und Ihnen zu zeigen wie Monte-Carlo-Simulation und andere Analyseverfahren Ihre tägliche Business-Analysen erweitern können. Wenn Sie Modelle in Excel anfertigen, dann können Ihnen die Palisade Softwarelösungen sicherlich helfen bessere fundierte Entscheidungen zu treffen. (Es gibt keine Gebühr für diese Präsentation.)
» 22 Juli, 10am GMT
» 17 August, 10am GMT

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions avec
@RISK et DecisionTools Suite - Session Web
Présenté par Manuel Carmona, Palisade Corporation
Ces sessions présentent une introduction à l'analyse probabiliste et montrent comment la simulation Monte Carlo et d’autres techniques, peuvent être appliquées dans la solution de problèmes d’analyse des risques et décisions dans le cadre des affaires. Si vous construisez déjà des modèles avec Excel, les solutions de Palisade vous aideront à prendre meilleures décisions dans votre entreprise. (Il n'ya aucun frais pour cette présentation.)
» 3 Août, 10am GMT
» 10 Août, 10am GMT

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con @RISK y
DecisionTools Suite - Sesión Web – En Español
Presentado por Manuel Carmona, Palisade Corporation
Los seminarios en línea están planteados como una introducción al análisis probabilístico, mostrando como la simulación Monte Carlo y otras técnicas, pueden ser aplicadas en la solución de problemas en el ámbito empresarial y de negocios. Si Vd. construye actualmente modelos con Excel, las soluciones de Palisade le ayudaran a tomar mejores decisiones. (No existe ningún coste para esta presentación.)
» 5 de Agosto, 10am GMT

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK and
The DecisionTools Suite - Web Session – English
Presented by Palisade Corporation
This event is designed to provide an entry-level introduction into probabilistic analysis and will show how Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques can be applied to your everyday business analyses. If you build models in Excel then Palisade solutions can almost certainly help you to make more informed decisions, right from your desktop. (There is NO CHARGE for this presentation.)
» 12 August, 10am GMT, with Doug Oldfield
» 24 August, 10am GMT, with Chris Marlow

Introductie van risico- en beslisanalyse met @RISK en de DecisionTools Suite – Webinar - Nederlands
Georganiseerd door Stephan Beeusaert, Palisade Corporation
Deze live evenementen zijn bedoeld om een inleiding tot de probabilistische analyse te bieden en u te laten zien hoe Monte Carlo simulatie en andere analytische methodes uw dagelijkse businessanalyses kunnen verbeteren. Als u in Excel modelleert, dan kan u de Palisade software zeker helpen betere geïnformeerde beslissingen te nemen. (Er zijn geen kosten voor deze presentatie.)
» 19 Augustus, 10am GMT

The Use of the DecisionTools Suite in
Biotechnology Project and Portfolio Decision Making
Presented by Svetlana A. Sigalova, Vertex Pharmaceuticals
September 2, 2010, 11:00am ET
Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a global biotechnology company based out of Cambridge, MA. Given the uncertainty of outcomes in the biotech industry, consideration of variability is an inherent part of the decision process. Consideration of variability allows a decision maker to bring in their own risk tolerance into the decision. Vertex’s strategy and analytics group within the corporate finance division seeks to provide the senior management with dynamic revenue and profit forecasting methodology that helps to identify types of drugs that should be developed given a finite amount of cash and resources. Vertex’s team uses the DecisonTools Suite to establish the average outcome, the variability of outcomes and to pressure-test risk and uncertainty of a particular scenario throughout the decision process. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

Palisade Blog Headlines
Oops! Didn't see that coming!
Monday, July 19, 2010
How often do we hear these words after we have made a change to product, service or process? We frequently solve one problem only to discover a new problem; or the solution we selected didn’t really resolve the problem. Consultant and trainer David Roy of Six Sigma Professionals, Inc. covers the four phases of a Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) project under the framework of I-dentify, C-onceptualize, O-ptimize, and V-erify or ICOV for short. He gives a high level look at the steps within these phases and the tools used to reduce the risk of the change and un-intended consequences.
» Part 1
» Part 2
» Part 3
» Part 4 coming soon!

Ensuring water supply when the heavens
rarely open, using risk simulation software
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Abu Dhabi has no rain for several months of the year, and relies almost completely on desalinated seawater for its potable water requirements. The desalination process is challenging in terms of operation, costs, and environmental impact. Whilst over-production capacity is expensive, at the other end of the scale it is essential that Abu Dhabi has sufficient water production capacity to support the Abu Dhabi government development plan (Abu Dhabi Plan 2030). This plan means that the Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company (ADWEC) is required by the Regulation and Supervision Bureau (RSB), the regulatory body of Abu Dhabi, to use a risk-based methodology to assess the water demand and required capacity. As a result ADWEC uses @RISK risk analysis software to help it to forecast as accurately as possible the demand for water and electricity across the Emirate in order to plan for the optimum expansion as well as the efficient and effective use of water production plants.
» Read more

Subscribe to the Palisade blogs.

Calculation of Construction Costs for
Building Projects using @RISK
As presented by Dr. Christian Hofstadler at the
Palisade Risk Conference, London, April 2010

Construction time is of crucial importance when it comes to utilizing the production factors in an effective and efficient way. Construction periods that are too short usually result in higher cost, poorer quality and a larger number of disputes. This presentation sets out to demonstrate the calculation of construction time and cost whilst considering key construction management parameters. Beyond a simple, deterministic method, other options for calculation are shown that rely on probability calculus and Monte Carlo simulation with @RISK. The methods are then compared.

» Download the presentation

Sharing Simulation Models with
Function Swap in @RISK

Working in dynamic groups is a fact of modern life. You may work with different colleagues on different projects, and may work with others in remote offices as well. When you use risk modeling software, being able to share information with others is critical to team projects.

@RISK offers a number of ways to facilitate sharing and collaboration of risk analysis models. The most popular is the Function Swap feature.

Did you know that you can remove @RISK functions from @RISK spreadsheet models in order to share them with others? This enables those without @RISK installed to be able to read and edit the same models. It’s great for sharing and collaborating across various workgroups. Furthermore, changes that non-@RISK users make will be preserved when you go to restore the @RISK functions back into the model.

It’s easy to do:

» Watch a short video on how to swap out @RISK functions

Alternative Energy
Wind Power Can Make Sense For Utilities
Technique: Monte Carlo Simulation   » see @RISK
Source: RedOrbit, May 25, 2010

To see if wind power would fit into a profitable power-delivery model, MIT researchers built a Monte Carlo simulation model of the grid.

Astronomy
Computer Program Learns to Sort Galaxies Like a Human
Technique: Neural networks   » see NeuralTools
Source: Space.coml, June 1, 2010

An artificial neural network can now help flesh-and-blood stargazers with the daunting task of classifying billions of galaxies.

Software
Energy Management for the Enterprise
Technique: Decision analysis   » see DecisionTools
Source: TMCnet, June 3, 2010

The latest entrant in the field of “smart” products is a suite of decision analysis tools that focuses on corporate-wide energy use.