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@RISK Modeling Tips
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   VBA Presented at the
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   Analysis Conference

What's New in @RISK 5.0
» Demo Mode

@RISK Function
of the Month
» The Poisson Distribution

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» Building Security
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» Europe
London: 27-28 Jan 09
London: 27-29 Jan 09
London: 10-11 March 09
London: 10-12 March 09

» Latinoamérica
   (en español)
Distrito Federal, México:
   26-28 enero 2009

» North America
San Diego: 20-21 Jan 09
Bermuda: 4-5 Feb 09
Houston: 10-12 Feb 09
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Phoenix: 10-11 Mar 09
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Chicago: 21-23 Apr 09
Calgary: 5-6 May 09
New York: 29-21 May 09
Toronto: 2-3 June 09
San Francisco: 16-18 June 09
Ithaca: 24-25 June 09

» Risk and Decision Assessment Training
using @RISK 5.0
Part I
12-13 Jan 09, 1-5pm ET
2-3 March 09, 1-5pm ET
13-14 April 09, 1-5pm ET
11-12 May 09, 1-5pm ET
8-9 June 09, 1-5pm ET

Part II
15-16 Jan 09, 1-5pm ET
5-6 March 09, 1-5pm ET
16-17 April 09, 1-5pm ET
14-15 May 09, 1-5pm ET

» Quantitative Project Risk Analysis using @RISK for Project: One Day Course (8023/AACEI One)
11 February 09, 1-5pm ET

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!


The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit


The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
» @RISK for Excel
» @RISK for Project
» @RISK for Six Sigma


Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets


Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets


Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets


The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

» Read the full case study

Palisade 2009 Energy Risk Analysis Forum
May 21, 2009, Houston
Following the success of the 2008 Energy Forum held in Calgary in September, Palisade is pleased to announce the 2009 forum covering risk and decision analysis from all angles specific to the energy sector. The event includes hands-on software training and real-world case studies featuring @RISK and DecisionTools software. Whether you are in oil and gas, renewable energy, utilities, or related engineering services, this is an excellent opportunity to network with your peers and fellow @RISK users in your industry. The registration fee includes all sessions, food, a reception, and the book Decisions Involving Uncertainty: @RISK Tutorial for the Petroleum Industry by Dr. James Murtha. We are also calling for presenters to give case studies at the forum. Tell us how you use @RISK or DecisionTools software in your organization, and attend for free.

» Email us to register now for only $695 595 early bird
» View the 2008 Energy Forum schedule

Palisade Blog Headlines
Why Use Risk Analysis? Part I
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
To many people, it may seem "obvious" that conducting a risk analysis will produce a better analysis and decision-making under uncertainty than just static forecasting. However, management are justified in asking whether the extra effort and potential that is required to do so is really worthwhile. Why and when does risk analysis produce better results?
» Read more

Cpk; What is its "Capability?"
Monday, December 08, 2008
There seems to be some low level confusion about Cpk and Ppk and what they actually represent. Very basically, Cpk is short term "noiseless" process capability where Ppk is long term "noisy" process capability. Some of the confusion regarding these two metrics may be because the automotive industry had at one time used Cpk to represent long term process capability and Ppk for short term, the complete opposite of the rest of the Six Sigma community. They have since conformed to the industry's standard definitions. Another potential source of confusion is that Ppk is a much underutilized metric for what it measures. When developing a process performing at six sigma level, wouldn't we ultimately want be focused on Ppk instead of Cpk? That is another subject that hopefully will receive more attention in the future.
» Read more

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Upcoming Webcasts
“Introduction to @RISK for Project III"
Presented by Ian Wallace, ACMA
Palisade Corporation - January 14, 2009, 10:00am EST
Continuing our theme, this is the last in a series of three webcasts where we show how estimates and forecasts can be dramatically ‘tightened up’ using @RISK for Project.

» Register now

"Using @RISK to Simulate a Regression Derived
Transfer Function Created Using Minitab”
Presented by Anwar El-Homsi
TPS-Lean Six Sigma LLC - January 29, 2009, 1:00pm EST
This presentation will cover the methods used to generate and build a Regression Analysis equation and the tools necessary to evaluate and diagnose how effective the equation is. We'll also cover the application of Monte Carlo Simulation using @RISK software to assess the performance of the process.

» Register now

Webcast: @RISK and DFSS
“DFSS-based Design Optimization using
Design of Experiments and @RISK ”
This webcast will take you through the fundamental steps of the Design and Optimize phases of a Design for Six Sigma product development effort. The steps involve modeling a physical system using a designed experiment, and using the model to achieve the required system performance using Monte Carlo simulation to estimate system sensitivity and capability.

This webcast is aimed at the practicing product development engineer, quality engineers and technical project managers.

» View Webcast

Automating @RISK with VBA
Presented at the Palisade Risk
& Decision Analysis Conference
New York City, November 13, 2008
Chris Albright, author of the book VBA for Modelers, recently presented a number of examples of how to automate @RISK, RISKOptimizer, and StatTools in Excel using Excel's VBA and Palisade's built-in object-oriented Excel Developer Kit. These examples include production applications, scheduling applications, World Series simulation, and more. All examples include macros written by Dr. Albright, so you'll need to enable macros when you open them.

Download the examples

» Order Dr. Albright's book VBA for Modelers

The release of @RISK 5.0 has spurred tremendous response from our users. Every day customers ask us, "What's new in @RISK 5.0?" To help answer this question, this series highlights key new features in @RISK 5.0. You can always see a complete list of new features, including short 30-second movies, here:

» What's New in @RISK 5.0

Demo Mode
You can put @RISK into Demo Mode to demonstrate to others how Monte Carlo simulation works. During a simulation in Demo Mode, all graphs and statistics are updated every iteration.

See how Demo Mode works

The Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution is a model for the number of events that occur in a given time period where the intensity of the process is constant (that is, it can equally be applied to processes over other domains e.g. spatial). The distribution can be thought of as an extension of the Binomial distribution (which has a discrete domain). It is often used in insurance modeling and financial markets as a distribution of the number of events (e.g. earthquakes, fires, stock market crashes) that might occur in a given period.

RiskPoisson(lambda) specifies a Poisson distribution with the specified lambda value, where lamba must be greater than zero. The argument lambda is also the same as the mean of the Poisson distribution. The Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution returning only integer values greater than or equal to zero.

Examples
RiskPoisson(5) specifies a Poisson distribution with a lambda of 5.
RiskPoisson(A6) specifies a Poisson distribution with a lambda value taken from cell A6.

Astronomy
Weighing the Black Hole at the Center of the Milky Way
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK 5.0
Source: Ars Technica , December 10, 2008

A team of scientists at the Keck Observatory in Hawaii has announced the first successful effort to measure and weigh a black hole.

Building Security
Analyzing a Crowd
Technique: Neural networks   » see NeuralTools 5.0
Source: AutomatedBuildings.com, December 2008

A new building security device based on neural networks analyzes the number, gender, and gestures of people moving within a room.

Marketing
Nudge Your Customers Toward Better Choices
Technique: Decision trees   » see PrecisionTree 5.0
Source: Insurance News Net, December 2008

Three business school professors have developed a decision tree that allows online marketers to optimize customer satisfaction with better management of default settings.

Medicine
Analysis Supports Use Of Surgery to Treat Epilepsy
Technique: Decision analysis   » see The DecisionTools Suite 5.0
Source: Science Daily, December 9, 2008

A decision analysis study of treatment for the most common form of
epilepsy, temporal lobe epilepsy, supports the use of surgery when the
condition is resistant to drugs.

Physiology
New Test Measures Stress to Predict Future Health
Technique: Neural networks   » see NeuralTools 5.0
Source: MarketWatch, December 8, 2008

A biotechnology startup company has introduced a new test based on a neural network to measure the effects of stress on the body and predict future health.

The Palisade User Forums are online discussion boards where users are invited
to post questions and share ideas on their use of @RISK and other Palisade
software. It's also a great place to check for announcements regarding updates
of Palisade software. Forums are organized by products.

» Join or view the Palisade Forums

Recent topics include:

» Appropriate Ranking of Cost Drivers and Costs