View online at http://www.palisade.com/news/2008/09_news_PE.asp |
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@RISK Modelling Tips @RISK Function Palisade Analytics
NORTH AMERICA
Calgary, AB,
25 September » Register Now for the Energy Forum
» Brasil (em português) » Europe » Latinoamérica » North America
» Risk and Decision Assessment Training using @RISK 5.0
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Pretoria, 30 September New three day training schedule Palisade at ADIPEC – Middle East Oil & Gas show for Investment Analysis Palisade’s successful expansion into Latin America is exemplified by Colombian energy transport company ISA’s (Interconexión Eléctrica S.A.) use of @RISK for corporate wide financial analysis and forecasting. The giant utility consists of 10 component enterprises which offer energy and telecommunications transmission throughout Central and South America. ISA’s individual investments and projects are often valued with the most rigorous strategic and financial plans, and the ISA financial team’s goal is to produce detailed, integrated models to simulate the potential performance of these investments and determine the optimum use of its financial resources. Diagnosis of the Corporate Portfolio » Read the full Case Study
» Download example model: OilSimulationWithRISK.xls Projecting Interest Rates and Other Trends: Random Trend and Random WalkIn this example, distribution functions are used to model uncertain trends. Both a simple random trend and a random walk are illustrated. For each iteration, a new value is sampled for each period in a trend. This allows your results to include the effects of all possible trend values as opposed to a single set of best estimates. In the random trend there is no correlation between periods. In the random walk, the value in each period is influenced by the value of the previous period. » Download example model: Rate.xls
The release of @RISK 5.0 has spurred tremendous response from our users. Every day customers ask us, “What’s new in @RISK 5.0?” To help answer this question, this series highlights key new features in @RISK 5.0. You can always see a complete list of new features, including short 30-second movies, here: The RiskMakeInput Function
This distribution is perhaps the most readily understandable and pragmatic distribution for basic risk models. It has a number of desirable properties, including a simple set of parameters including the use of a modal value i.e. a most likely case. There are two main disadvantages of a Triangular distribution. First, when the parameters result in a skewed distribution, then there may be an over-emphasis of the outcomes in the direction of the skew. Second, the distribution is bounded on both sides, whereas many real-life processes are bounded on one side but unbounded on the other. RiskTriang(minimum,most likely,maximum) specifies a triangular distribution with three points — a minimum, most likely, and maximum. The direction of the "skew" of the triangular distribution is set by the size of the most likely value relative to the minimum and the maximum. ExamplesRiskTriang(100,200,30) specifies a triangular distribution with a minimum value of 100, a most likely value of 200 and a maximum value of 300. RiskTriang(A10/90,B10,500) specifies a triangular distribution with a minimum value equaling the value in cell A10 divided by 90, a most likely value taken from cell B10 and a maximum value of 500.
Auto Racing Race fan and columnist Long John Silver launches a three-part investigation of how much carbon dioxide Formula One cars produce on an average race day. Climate Change Researchers from the University of Arizona used Monte Carlo simulation to determine that changes in storm tracks were due to human activities. Corporate Partnering IBM’s guidance to staff on selling to corporate partners comes in the form of a decision tree. Drug Testing A combined decision tree and Markov model helped researchers weigh the costs and benefits of a drug often used during coronary interventions. Environmental Policy A new report from NASA highlights the need to expand the use of decision support tools to inform environmental policies. Government Contracting When the government issued a revised RFP for a new tanker aircraft, Boeing used Monte Carlo simulation to make its case persuasively. Law As the role of so-called “settlement counsel” has grown, these intermediaries have turned frequently to risk analysis and decision trees. Public Works Evidence from decision tree and risk assessment analyses are likely to dissuade one town’s public officials from approving construction of a multiuse recreational facility. Robotics As part of a futuristic demonstration of programmable intelligence, Intel showed off tiny micro-robots that use a neural network to form self-programming objects that can reshape themselves. The Mirror Image? A new robot developed at Meiji University in Japan uses a neural network to distinguish between its own image in a mirror and an identical robot mimicking it. Social Security The Congressional Budget Office used Monte Carlo simulation to arrive at projections of Social Security financing that differed from the predictions of the Social Security Administration. Space Science A team of engineers used Monte Carlo simulation to improve fault tolerance and recovery in unmanned missions launched by the European Space Agency.
The Palisade User Forums are online discussion boards where users are invited to post questions and share ideas on their use of @RISK and other Palisade software. It’s also a great place to check for announcements regarding updates of Palisade software. Forums are organised by products. » Join or view the Palisade Forums Recent topics include: |
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