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Palisade Corporation

Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Conferences
*US$199 HOTEL SPECIAL
*US$1000 Off the
  DecisionTools Suite


In This Issue
What’s New

» ISA uses @RISK for
   Investment Analysis

» $199 Hotel Room Special
» Latin American Risk &
   Decision Analysis
   Conference

» Transformation Partners
   joins ranks of Six Sigma
   Consultants using @RISK

@RISK Modeling Tips
» PrecisionTree and @RISK:
   Oil Drilling

» Random Trend and
   Random Walk

@RISK Function
of the Month

» The Triangular Distribution

Palisade Analytics
in the Press

» Auto Racing
» Climate Change
» Corporate Partnering
» Drug Testing
» Environmental Policy
» Government Contracting
» Law
» Public Works
» Robotics
» Social Security
» Space Science

» Palisade User Forums

Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Conferences
» Latinoamérica
20-21 octubre, Medellín
» North America
13-14 Nov, New York City
» Asia-Pacific
Spring 2009, Melbourne
» Europe
Fall 2009


Live chat Click
to chat live
with a sales
representative


DecisionTools Suite 5.0 World Tour
Special live demonstrations of the all-new DecisionTools Suite 5.0. Learn how the Suite products combine to deliver more complete results than any single product can provide.

EUROPE
London, 22 September
Aberdeen, 23 September

Manchester, 24 September
Dublin, 25 September

NORTH AMERICA
Boston, 22 September
Baltimore, 10 October

Washington DC, 15 October
Irvine, CA, 15 October
Download LA, 16 October
Orlando, 28 October

St. Louis, 29 October
Chicago, 30 October

» Sign up for a Tour date

Palisade Energy Risk Analysis Forum
A one-day forum covering risk and decision analysis from all angles specific to the energy sector.

Calgary, AB, 25 September

» Register Now for the Energy Forum

Palisade Academic Symposia
Free one-day events for professors, lecturers and post graduate students. Find out exactly how and why over 40,000 students are trained annually to perform quantitative risk and decision analysis using Palisade software DecisionTools Suite and @RISK.

Pretoria, 30 September
Frankfurt, 18 October

» Free registration


Regional Seminars
» Africa
Pretoria: 1-2 Oct

» Brasil (em português)
Salvador: 9-10 outubro
Rio de Janeiro: 24-28 nov

» Europe
London: 15-17 Oct
Oslo: 28-29 Oct
London: 5-7 Nov
London: 4-5 Dec

» Latinoamérica
   (en español)
Bogotá, Colombia:
   24-28 de noviembre

» North America
Boston: 23-24 Sept
Chicago: 29-30 Sept
Toronto: 1-2 Oct
Baltimore: 8-9 Oct
Manhattan Beach: 16 Oct
Calgary: 21-22 Oct
Orlando: 29-30 Oct
Los Angeles: 20-21 Nov
Dallas: 3-4 Dec
Atlanta: 16-17 Dec



Live Web Training
» Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
2-3 September, 1-5pm ET

» Risk and Decision Assessment Training using @RISK 5.0
Part I
:
13-14 Oct, 1-5pm ET
3-4 Nov, 1-5pm ET
8-9 Dec, 1-5pm ET
Part II
16-17 Oct, 1-5pm ET
6-7 Nov, 1-5pm ET
11-12 Dec, 1-5pm ET


Free Trial Versions
Palisade software is available in fully functional free trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and decision analysis toolkit

@RISK
The world's most widely used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

PrecisionTree
Visual decision analysis for spreadsheets

NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


The DecisionTools Suite

Colombian Energy Giant Grupo ISA uses @RISK for Investment Analysis - e-focus
 

What's New
Colombian Energy Giant ISA uses @RISK
for Investment Analysis
Palisade’s successful expansion into Latin America is exemplified by Colombian energy transport company ISA’s (Interconexión Eléctrica S.A.) use of @RISK for corporate wide financial analysis and forecasting. The giant utility consists of 10 component enterprises which offer energy and telecommunications transmission throughout Central and South America. ISA’s individual investments and projects are often valued with the most rigorous strategic and financial plans, and the ISA financial team’s goal is to produce detailed, integrated models to simulate the potential performance of these investments and determine the optimum use of its financial resources.

Diagnosis of the Corporate Portfolio
Rather than assess each potential investment or project in isolation, the ISA financial team looks at the effect that transaction will have on the entire portfolio of ISA investments. @RISK is used to account for factors that occur irregularly throughout the portfolio. What if the exchange rate shifts in one of the countries involved in an ISA investment but not in the others? Or perhaps potential revenues vary widely across the group’s region.

» Read the full Case Study
» Grupo ISA is presenting at the Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Conference
   Latin America. Click here for more (in Spanish) and see below.


2008 Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Conference

$199 Hotel Special and
$1000 off DecisionTools Suite
There are a limited number of rooms available at the for only $199 during the 2008 Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Conference taking place November 13-14 at the Hyatt Regency Jersey City on the Hudson. Normally rooms at this four-star venue go for $399 per night, so register for the conference and book your room now to save. Plus, when you register for the conference you’ll receive a coupon for $1,000 off the DecisionTools Suite 5.0 Industrial.

» Register for the conference for US$200 off: $795 $595

Ask for US$199 room by contacting us at:
800 432 RISK
607 277 8000
sales@palisade.com
($199 rate not available online)

Presentations from Lockheed Martin, BC Hydro, Harvard and more
The conference program is available for this two-day forum on practical approaches to risk problems. Industry case studies will be presented from finance, insurance, energy, project management, health care, and other areas. Join decision-makers from Lockheed Martin, Harvard University, Lloyd’s Register, BC Hydro, Kimberly-Clark, and many more.

» View the conference program

 

Palisade Gears up for Latin American Risk & Decision Analysis Conference
October 20-21, Medellín, Colombia
Delegates are lining up for the second Palisade conference to be held in Latin America. Following the success of last year’s event in San José, Costa Rica, this year’s all-Spanish program features a keynote address from KPMG Panama on strategic planning in the analysis of credit reserve and operational risks. Case studies include approaches to risk mitigation (Petrobras), hurricane prediction (Agroasemex), value generation for shareholders through risk management (Grupo ISA), uncertainty analysis in agriculture (Innovastat) and many more.

» Register and learn more (in Spanish)

 

Transformation Partners Joins Ranks of Six Sigma Consultants Using @RISK
Transformation Partners Company is a full service Lean Six Sigma consultancy firm based in Fairport, NY. Transformation Partners has chosen Palisade's @RISK software to be used exclusively for their Monte Carlo Simulation modules taught during their Black Belt, Master Black Belt, Design for Six Sigma (DFSS), and Product Development programs.

Transformation Partners joins Rath & Strong, Consulting with Impact, and other Six Sigma consultants and education providers who are adding @RISK to their software toolkits and course offerings. Growing numbers of quality organizations are realizing the benefits @RISK’s Monte Carlo simulation can bring to their clients. Rath & Strong Vice President Augie Stagliano says of their adoption of @RISK: “We have always been open to new approaches that will give our clients an edge.”

Upcoming TPC classes:

Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Certification
Adirondack Community College (Queensbury, NY) - Starting Sep 22, 2008

Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Certification
Monroe Community College (Rochester, NY) - Starting Nov 17, 2008

» Visit Transformation Partners
» Rath & Strong, Consulting with Impact, and other Six Sigma partners


Product Spotlight

PrecisionTree 5.0
and @RISK 5.0: Oil Drilling

The results of finding oil in the oil drilling decision tree Oil.xls are divided into three discrete outcomes - Dry, Wet and Soaking. But, in reality, the uncertain amount of oil found should be described with a continuous distribution. @RISK is used in this model to describe the uncertainty of this chance event. By adding @RISK probability distribution functions to decision trees, you gain more accurate modeling and can simulate more possible outcomes.

Download example model: OilSimulationWithRISK.xls

Projecting Interest Rates and Other Trends: Random Trend and Random Walk
In this example, distribution functions are used to model uncertain trends. Both a simple random trend and a random walk are illustrated. For each iteration, a new value is sampled for each period in a trend. This allows your results to include the effects of all possible trend values as opposed to a single set of best estimates. In the random trend there is no correlation between periods. In the random walk, the value in each period is influenced by the value of the previous period.

Download example model: Rate.xls


Product Spotlight

The release of @RISK 5.0 has spurred tremendous response from our users. Every day customers ask us, “What’s new in @RISK 5.0?” To help answer this question, this series highlights key new features in @RISK 5.0. You can always see a complete list of new features, including short 30-second movies, here:

» What's New in @RISK 5.0

The RiskMakeInput Function
The RiskMakeInput function turns any Excel formula into a @RISK simulation input, even if it does not contain a probability distribution. Use this to get @RISK to treat your proprietary calculations just as it does its own probability distributions when calculating simulation results. RiskMakeInput can also summarize many individual probability distributions into a single input, simplifying your Tornado graphs.

See how RiskMakeInput works


Function of the Month

The Triangular Distribution

This distribution is perhaps the most readily understandable and pragmatic distribution for basic risk models. It has a number of desirable properties, including a simple set of parameters including the use of a modal value i.e. a most likely case. There are two main disadvantages of a Triangular distribution. First, when the parameters result in a skewed distribution, then there may be an over-emphasis of the outcomes in the direction of the skew. Second, the distribution is bounded on both sides, whereas many real-life processes are bounded on one side but unbounded on the other.

RiskTriang(minimum,most likely,maximum) specifies a triangular distribution with three points — a minimum, most likely, and maximum. The direction of the "skew" of the triangular distribution is set by the size of the most likely value relative to the minimum and the maximum.

Examples

RiskTriang(100,200,30) specifies a triangular distribution with a minimum value of 100, a most likely value of 200 and a maximum value of 300.

RiskTriang(A10/90,B10,500) specifies a triangular distribution with a minimum value equaling the value in cell A10 divided by 90, a most likely value taken from cell B10 and a maximum value of 500.



Palisade Software Techniques in the News

Auto Racing
Carbon Footprint of Formula One Cars
Technique: Statistical analysis, sensitivity analysis   » see DecisionTools Suite
Source: Bleacher Report, August 25, 2008

Race fan and columnist Long John Silver launches a three-part investigation of how much carbon dioxide Formula One cars produce on an average race day.

Climate Change
Human-Caused Changes in Winds Result in Drier, Warmer Springs
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK 5.0
Source: DigitalJournal.com, August 4, 2008

Researchers from the University of Arizona used Monte Carlo simulation to determine that changes in storm tracks were due to human activities.

Corporate Partnering
IBM Publishes Principles of Engagement for Sales
Technique: Decision trees   » see PrecisionTree 5.0
Source: eChannelLine, August 26, 2008

IBM’s guidance to staff on selling to corporate partners comes in the form of a decision tree.

Drug Testing
Cost-Effectiveness of Clopidogrel during Coronary Intervention
Technique: Decision trees, risk analysis   » see DecisionTools Suite 5.0
Source: RedOrbit, August 29, 2008

A combined decision tree and Markov model helped researchers weigh the costs and benefits of a drug often used during coronary interventions.

Environmental Policy
Climate Data Available, But Report Cites Need for Wider Use of Computer Power
Technique: Decision analysis   » see DecisionTools Suite 5.0
Source: MarketWatch, September 8, 2008

A new report from NASA highlights the need to expand the use of decision support tools to inform environmental policies.

Government Contracting
Dilemma for Boeing as Pentagon Issues New Tanker Specs
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK 5.0
Source: Aviation International News, August 22, 2008

When the government issued a revised RFP for a new tanker aircraft, Boeing used Monte Carlo simulation to make its case persuasively.

Law
Settlement Counsel: A New Player in Resolving Tough Issues
Technique: Decision analysis   » see DecisionTools Suite 5.0
Source: Lawyers Weekly, September 12, 2008

As the role of so-called “settlement counsel” has grown, these intermediaries have turned frequently to risk analysis and decision trees.

Public Works
Evidence from Risk Assessment on New Rec Facility
Technique: Decision trees, risk analysis   » see DecisionTools Suite 5.0
Source: Orillia Today (Ontario, Canada), August 20, 2008

Evidence from decision tree and risk assessment analyses are likely to dissuade one town’s public officials from approving construction of a multiuse recreational facility.

Robotics
Intel's Building Blocks for Shape-Shifting Robots
Technique: Neural networks   » see NeuralTools 5.0
Source: The Register (London), August 21, 2008

As part of a futuristic demonstration of programmable intelligence, Intel showed off tiny micro-robots that use a neural network to form self-programming objects that can reshape themselves.

The Mirror Image?
Technique: Neural networks   » see NeuralTools 5.0
Source: Times of India, August 22, 2008

A new robot developed at Meiji University in Japan uses a neural network to distinguish between its own image in a mirror and an identical robot mimicking it.

Social Security
New CBO Projections of Social Security Financing
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK 5.0
Source: American Enterprise Institute, August 22, 2008

The Congressional Budget Office used Monte Carlo simulation to arrive at projections of Social Security financing that differed from the predictions of the Social Security Administration.

Space Science
Controlling Spacecraft
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation with optimization  » see RISKOptimizer 5.0
Source: The Engineer (London), September 2, 2008

A team of engineers used Monte Carlo simulation to improve fault tolerance and recovery in unmanned missions launched by the European Space Agency.

 


Palisade User Forums

The Palisade User Forums are online discussion boards where users are invited to post questions and share ideas on their use of @RISK and other Palisade software. It’s also a great place to check for announcements regarding updates of Palisade software. Forums are organized by products.

» Join or view the Palisade Forums

Recent topics include:

» Adapting @RISK Shifts to Excel Probabilities

Palisade Corporation

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