The 2008 Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Conference is a two-day conference covering risk, decision, and data analysis from all angles. From hands-on software training to real-world case studies, you will learn new approaches to the problems you face every day. You will also see how new versions of @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, TopRank, NeuralTools, StatTools, and other Palisade software work together to give you the most complete picture possible. This variety of analytical approaches to real-life problems is the theme of this year’s conference. Top-level consultants, industry practitioners, and Palisade experts will present to an audience of professionals from across the spectrum of business and research.

» Register now and save US $200

Call for Presentations
If you have an application of a risk or decision analysis problem you’d like to share, please let us know. The registration fee is waived for conference presenters.

» Call for New York Presentations

The Hyatt and Manhattan
The Palisade Risk & Decision Analysis Conference will take place at the gorgeous Hyatt Regency Jersey City on the Hudson. The hotel offers stunning views of New York City. Join us for cocktails and a dinner cruise around Manhattan and the Statue of Liberty, debarking from the Hyatt.

» Book your room now for only US $309

Free Live Webcast
Monte Carlo Simulations & Sensitivity Analyses for Assessing & Optimizing Design of Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture Sites
Presented by Dr. Gregor K. Reid
University of New Brunswick & Canadian Dept of Fisheries and Oceans
» 8 May 2008, 11:00 AM – Noon ET

» Learn more about webcasts and register

VAIR Financial Courses
Featuring @RISK
The VAIR Companies, in cooperation with Palisade, is offering comprehensive financial modeling seminars featuring @RISK. The classes are:

Financial Statement Modeling and Analysis with Excel
and @RISK 5.0
This class demonstrates efficient model creation and how these financial models should guide commercial discussions. Participants learn how to "negotiate off the financial model." This course is indispensable to the effective use of financial spreadsheets for any industry or sector.

» More information or Register

Project Finance Advanced Modeling with Excel and @RISK 5.0
This is a master-level class and focuses on project finance and its related modeling issues. After reviewing some basic elements of project finance, the participants are given a full suite of project documents and macroeconomic information that are indicative to any infrastructure project. Immediately following is a step-by-step procedure of building a complex equity case model. The final phase of this module uses sophisticated model techniques with @RISK to help the practitioner price the deal.

» More information or Register

Public-Private Partnership Modeling with Excel and @RISK 5.0
This specialty class focuses on Public-Private Partnership (“PPP”) projects in Canada and their related modeling issues. After reviewing some basic elements that separate PPP from traditional infrastructure and project financing, the participants are given a full suite of project documents and macroeconomic information that are indicative to infrastructure projects. This is followed by a step-by-step procedure of building a complex model for a concessionaire bid. The final phase of this module uses sophisticated model techniques, including @RISK 5.0, to help the practitioner price the deal and negotiate off the financial model.

» More information or Register

Optimization and
Enterprise Resource Planning
With Enterprise Resource Planning a nearly universal but continually evolving business model, consultant Don Mettler fulfills a vital role for the large manufacturing companies that are his clients. He specializes in integrating software systems to help these companies make the most efficient use of their plant and material resources. For the past fifteen years he has worked with companies in businesses that range from pharmaceuticals to aerospace and automotive to high-tech hardware—and Palisade’s Evolver, @RISK, and the @RISK Developer Kit have been essential to much of this work. In one example, Mettler developed a model to optimize the production and minimize inventory costs of corrugated cardboard boxes for fresh produce.

» Read the full case study

Oil & Gas:
Simple Volumetric Reserves
This model calculates simple volumetric reserves, N=AhR. The three input cells for A, h, and R contain Triang distributions. The single output cell, Reserves, is the product of the inputs, scaled down by 10^6. After simulation, the resulting distribution for N is skewed to the right.

» Example model: AHR1.xls

Design for Six Sigma:
Electrical Design
This simple DC circuit consists of two voltage sources - one independent and one dependent - and two resistors. The independent source specified by the design engineer has an operational power range of 5,550 W + 300 W. If the power draw on the independent voltage source is outside of the specification, the circuit will be defective. The design performance results clearly indicate that the design is not capable of performance with a percentage of the circuits failing on both the high and low end of the limits. The PNC values identify the Percent of Nonconforming units expected on the upper and lower ends of the specification. A RiskSixSigma property function in the Output cell PowerDEP defines Upper Limit, Lower Limit, and Target that are used for Six Sigma results calculations. @RISK Six Sigma functions are used to calculate Cpk Lower, Cpk Upper, Cpk, Cp, DPM, PNC Upper and PNC Lower.

» Example model: SixSigmaElectricalDesign.xls

The release of @RISK 5.0 has spurred tremendous response from our users. Every day customers ask us, “What’s new in @RISK 5.0?” To help answer this question, this series highlights key new features in @RISK 5.0. You can always see a complete list of new features, including short 30-second movies, here:

» What's New in @RISK 5.0

Six Sigma Process Capability Function
A new RiskSixSigma property function for simulation outputs specifies LSL, USL and Target values for use in Six Sigma statistics calculations. There is a new set of @RISK statistics functions that return desired Six Sigma process capability metrics on simulation outputs such as Cp, Cpk, DPM, and many more.

» See how the Six Sigma functions work

 

Lognormal Distribution

Like the Normal distribution, the Lognormal has two parameters (μ,σ) corresponding to the mean and standard deviation. Just as the Normal distribution results from adding many random processes, so the Lognormal arises by multiplying many random processes. In practice it is often used as a representation of the future value of an asset whose value in percentage terms changes in a random and independent fashion. It is often used in the oil industry as a model of reserves following geological studies whose results are uncertain. The distribution has a number of desirable properties of real world processes. These include that it is skewed, and that it has a positive and unbounded range i.e. it ranges from 0 to infinity. Another useful property is that when σ is small compared to μ, the skew is small and the distribution approaches a Normal distribution; so any Normal distribution can be approximated by a Lognormal by using the same standard deviation, but increasing the mean (so that the ratio σ / μ is small), and then shifting the distribution by adding a constant amount so that the means match.

RiskLognorm(mean,standard deviation) specifies a lognormal distribution with the entered mean and standard deviation.

Examples

RiskLognorm(10,20) specifies a lognormal distribution with a mean of 10 and a standard deviation of 20.

RiskLognorm(C10*3.14,B10) specifies a lognormal distribution with a mean equaling the value in cell C10 times 3.14 and a standard deviation equaling the value in cell B10.

Astrophysics
New Telescope Will Look Back to Early Formation of the Universe Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK 5.0
Source: International Science Grid This Week, April 2, 2008

Designers developing a new radio telescope are using Monte Carlo simulation to anticipate the behavior of photons.

Baseball
Probability and the Playoffs
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK 5.0
Source: True Blue LA, April 10, 2008

One blogger describes how to run a Monte Carlo simulation that will anticipate which teams will make the playoffs.

Corporate Management
Intangible Measures
Technique: Decision trees   » see PrecisionTree
Source: Inc.com

A consideration of how marketing professionals can assign values to “intangibles” that are known to influence customers.

Electronics
Analyzing Circuit Sensitivity for Analog Circuit Design
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK 5.0
Source: Embedded.com, April 16, 2008

A Texas Instrument engineer uses Monte Carlo simulation to balance the performance and the cost of circuits.

Game Theory
Computer Wins Ancient Game of Strategy
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Source: PR Newswire, April 9, 2008

A computer optimized the strategy for its simulated play and beat a Go master at the traditional Chinese game.

Marketing
How to Diversify Your Customer Portfolio
Technique: Decision analysis   » see PrecisionTree, StatTools
Source: Multichannel Merchant, April 7, 2008

A veteran marketing analyst offers a four-step segmentation strategy for analyzing customer portfolio expansion.

Material Science
Infrared remote sensing to measure the temperature of flames
Technique: Neural networks   » see NeuralTools
Source: Innovations Report (Bad Homburg,Germany), April 9, 2008

In order to study burning efficiency and reduce contamination from the combustion process, scientists from the Universidad Carlos III used multilayer perceptron neural network to translate their data on light to data on temperature.

Medical Practice
Doctors Wary of Offering Prognoses
Technique: Decision analysis   » see PrecisionTree, @RISK 5.0
Source: Irish Medical News

What a patient wants most and what doctors feel less and less prepared to provide is a prognosis. But decision analysis and mathematical modeling offer a convenient alternative for doctors.

Retirement
Dancing Bears at Your Retirement Party?
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK 5.0
Source: Wall Street Journal, March 30, 2008

Simulating risk over time will help retirees calculate optimal timing and amounts of withdrawals from their retirement funds.

Robotics
The Toughest, Smartest, Best Terminators of All Time
Technique: Neural networks   » see NeuralTools
Source: Military.com, March 20, 2008

The robot who stars in the Terminator movies has a neural network preloaded with cookie-cutter verbal interactions that can also record and assimilate additional phrases that it hears.

Social Networks
Friends and Enemies Size Up a Social Networking Sites
Technique: Statistical analysis, Decision trees   » StatTools, PrecisionTree
Source: Il Sole 24 Ore (Italy), April 8, 2008

An analysis of voting behavior on a social networking site reveals that users may need features that allow them to distinguish among their various kinds of friendships.

The Palisade User Forums are online discussion boards where users are invited to post questions and share ideas on their use of @RISK and other Palisade software. It’s also a great place to check for announcements regarding updates of Palisade software. Forums are organized by products.

» Join or view the Palisade Forums

Recent topics include:

» Summing Values of Each Iteration of a Simulation