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Case Study
@RISK Modeling Tips What's New in @RISK 5.0 @RISK Function Palisade Analytics
Using Integrated Integrating @RISK into the DMAIC Process Monte Carlo Simulations & Sensitivity Analyses for Assessing & Optimizing Design of Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture Sites
Philadelphia,
7 April
» Latinoamérica » Europe » Asia-Pacific
» Introduction to » Risk and Decision Assessment Training using @RISK, Part I » Risk and Decision Assessment Training using @RISK, Part II
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Try DecisionTools Suite 5.0 at the Palisade User Conference Europe London, 22-23 April 2008 Representatives from blue-chip organizations like PricewaterhouseCoopers, Infineon, Unilever, Munich Re, London Business School, Chase Cooper, and Norsk Regnesentral will be among the witnesses for the unveiling of the brand-new DecisionTools Suite 5.0 at the Palisade User Conference in London by Palisade President Sam McLafferty. Delegates will take part in hands-on training sessions using the new software, and will experience the stunning new interface, powerful analyses and unprecedented sharing capabilities of this exciting new release. Real world case studies on topics ranging from utilities regulation to brand management, demand forecasting to environmental cleanup, and energy risk assessment to traffic forecasting will greet attendees at the London headquarters of the Institute of Directors. Check out the program and register today. » See the conference schedule
@RISK 5.0 World Tour
Robust Dynamic Pricing of Perishable Products Using Integrated Stochastic Process for Integrating @RISK into the DMAIC Process Monte Carlo Simulations & Sensitivity Analyses for Assessing & Optimizing Design of Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture Sites » Learn more about webcasts and register
Six Sigma DMAIC: » Example model: SixSigmaDMAICRTY.xls New Product Profitability: » Example model: HippoSensitivity.xls
The binomial distribution is a discrete distribution returning only integer values greater than or equal to zero. This distribution corresponds to the number of events that occur in a trial of a set of independent events of equal probability. RiskBinomial(n, p) specifies a binomial distribution with n number of trials and p probability of success on each trial. The number of trials is often referred to as the number of draws or samples made. For example, RiskBinomial(10,20%) would represent the number of discoveries of oil from a portfolio of 10 prospects, where each prospect has a 20% chance of having oil. The most important modelling application is when n=1, so that there are two possible outcomes (0 or 1), where the 1 has a specified probability p, and the 0 has probability 1-p. With p=0.5, it is equivalent to tossing a fair coin. For other values of p, the distribution can be used to model event risk i.e. the occurrence or not of an event, and to transform registers of risks into simulation models in order to aggregate the risks. Examples RiskBinomial(5,.25) specifies a binomial distribution generated from 5 trials or “draws” with a 25% probability of success on each draw. RiskBinomial(C10*3,B10) specifies a binomial distribution generated from the trials or “draws” given by the value in cell C10 times 3. The probability of success on each draw is given in cell B10.
Business School Curriculum In Palisade consultant Sam Bodily’s decision analysis class, playing for high stakes show first-year MBAs the value of quantitative decision analysis. Credit Card Fraud VISA –the membership association now recasting itself as a for-profit enterprise—was applying neural networks technology to reduce fraud as early as 1993. Enterprise Resource Planning An ERP system usually represents a large investment, and one expert recommends Monte Carlo simulation to assess the financial risks before purchasing or upgrading a system. Experimental Computing A new form of quantum computing that mimics a neural network promises to create more dynamic, robust pattern recognition. Fire Safety Research on a tragic Rhode Island night club fire called for more computer-aided decision tools to assess the effectiveness of lifesaving regulations. IT Integration Decision tree technology can help companies analyze information flow for better decisions about systems integration. Medical Practice A Vanderbilt University mathematician has demonstrated how to use Monte Carlo simulation to optimize antibiotic use and cut down on overuse and resulting resistance. Dual Screening Needed for Women Who Carry Breast Cancer Gene A new study based on predictive modeling showed that women who carry the BRCA1 gene should be evaluated by regular screening by both mammography and MRI. Retirement Planning For one couple with adequate income but very big retirement plans, a Monte Carlo simulation suggested how to balance their dreams with wealth preservation. Robotics Agile rescue robots under development at the University of Edinburgh will rely on an artificial neural network to direct their insect-like appendages over rough terrain. Semiconductor Manufacture / Quality Control Recent advances in nanofabrication are based on neural networks regulation of quality control. Water Quality Using a three-dimensional grid based on Monte Carlo simulation, researchers are studying the sustainable management of groundwater. The Palisade User Forums are online discussion boards where users are invited to post questions and share ideas on their use of @RISK and other Palisade software. It’s also a great place to check for announcements regarding updates of Palisade software. Forums are organized by products. » Join or view the Palisade Forums Recent topics include:
» Converting 95% Confidence Interval to Standard Deviation |
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