|View online at http://www.palisade.com/news/2007/10_news.asp|
» Denmark uses @RISK
for Road and Infrastructure Projects
» Join the Party:
Palisade User Conference Miami Almost Here!
» 2007 Palisade User Conference Asia-Pacific
Draws Record Crowd
» Free Live Webcast: The DecisionTools Suite at Unilever
» Risk and Decision Assessment Training using @RISK, Part II
» Project Risk Assessment using @RISK for Project
Society of Actuaries Annual Meeting and Exhibit
INFORMS Annual Meeting 2007
SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition - 2007
38th Annual Meeting of the Decision Sciences Institute - DSI 2007
European Banking and Insurance Fair
Mines and Money
PMI New Zealand
International Conference on Operations and Quantitative Management
SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference
Denmark uses @RISK for
In particular, the CTT undertakes extensive evaluations with @RISK to produce a cost-benefit ratio that determines whether the benefits of a proposed transport venture justify its economic, social, and environmental cost. Risk assessments include calculating if a new road will shorten journey times, reduce accidents, increase pollution, and more.
The story was picked up by Hoovers, Wachovia, Directions magazine, and nearly a dozen other outlets.
Join the Party: Palisade User
2007 Palisade User Conference
“A lot of attendees heard about our conference from colleagues,” noted Palisade Asia-Pacific Managing Director Mark Meurisse. “The word is spreading – the Palisade User Conference is becoming the forum for quantitative risk and decision analysis.”
Customers that took part in Asia-Pacific event included: Sanofi-Aventis, Hatch, BlueScope Steel, Sydney Water, OneSteel, CH3MHILL, Marsh Ltd, Telstra, Shell, Western Australia Department of Agriculture, the University of New South Wales, and many more.
Free Live Webcast:
@RISK Professional and Industrial include integrated distribution fitting. Just read your data into @RISK and click the Fit button. @RISK will find the distribution which best describes your data. A handy right-click command writes the newfound distribution to your spreadsheet cell. You can also link your fit to the resulting @RISK functions. If the underlying data changes, the fit automatically re-runs and updates the distribution in your model.
@RISK ranks dozens of distribution functions against your data, and provides comprehensive results. Four types of graphs are available to assess accuracy of the fit, and there are complete statistical reports and goodness-of-fit data.
Choose from Comparison, Difference, Probability-Probability, or Quantile-Quantile graphs. All graphs include sliding delimiters and probability bars. Graphs are also easily formatted, and exported to Excel in native Excel format.
@RISK uses three advanced fitting algorithms to optimize its fits – Chi Square, Anderson-Darling, and Komolgorov-Smirnov. You can read in data sets with up to 100,000 points, in sample, density, or cumulative format. You can fit multiple data sets in a single project, and specify which predefined distributions to fit to. BestFit allows full control over Chi-squared calculations, including equal interval binning, equal probability binning, and full custom binning. It will also perform the RMS (root mean square error) test for cumulative and density data.
Visa is now adding Verifed by Visa to the multiple layers of protection it offers cardholders through programs such as the three-digit code (CVV2), address authentication and neural networks.
Using decision trees, the UK government contemplates vaccination to combat foot and mouth disease.
» ISU receives $842,000 from DOD to Develop
Under a new grant from the Department of Defense, researchers will try to develop an “intelligent” control for prosthetics using a variety of sophisticated computing techniques, including neural networks and genetic algorithms.
At Swarthmore College, paleontology professor Steve Wang presented research based on Monte Carlo simulation that aimed to uncover the cause of an unexplained extinction event 250 million years ago that brought the annihilation of nearly 95% of Earth’s then-living species.
» Retirement Advice: Putting off Retirement
A financial columnist relies on widely used Monte Carlo simulation software to help advise a retiree on how to maximize her income over her lifetime.
A look at how retirement expert William Klinger calculates how changing withdrawal rates affects retirement income. His Monte Carlo simulations make use of 78 years of data on asset and inflation...
One planning approach has improved since the current bear market began. “Monte Carlo simulation programs are now standard for advisers preparing a financial plan. . .”
» The Odds of Your Team Making the Playoffs Are...
» Playing the Postseason Percentages
» How the Mariners' Ship Sank So Fast
» Highline Wealth Management Achieves
Highline Wealth Management pursues an alternative investment strategy to reduce the effects of volatility on investments, and leverages a variety of allocation models including Monte Carlo simulation.
Expert Answers to Technical Questions
How do I get the RiskLognorm function to output an expected “textbook” mean and standard deviation after a simulated distribution?
@RISK, RISKOptimizer, and the developer kits have two lognormal distributions. RiskLognorm2 is the traditional distribution and will behave in the way described in statistics books. Palisade also offers RiskLognorm, where the mu and sigma you enter are the actual mean and standard deviation of the distribution, subject to the usual sampling fluctuation. The two distributions are the same except for the way you enter parameters.
If you know the actual mean and standard deviation you want in a log-normal distribution, use RiskLognorm. If you want to use parameters that match the lognormal distribution in many textbooks, use RiskLognorm2.
Finally, if you know the desired geometric mean and standard deviation of a log-normal distribution, use RiskLognorm2 but set mu to the natural log of the desired geometric mean, and sigma to the natural log of the desired geometric standard deviation.
E-mail comments or suggestions to:firstname.lastname@example.org
©2007 Palisade Corporation, 798 Cascadilla Street, Ithaca, NY 14850 USA