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» Miami User Conference Session Program Announced
» DecisionTools Suite Blooms among the Bloomberg Set
» Free Live Webcast: Determining the Optimal
Level of Swaps
Ask Amy Tech Tips
» Risk and Decision Assessment Training using @RISK, Part II
» Project Risk Assessment using @RISK for Project
» Improving Estimates and Budgets
PMI Global Congress 2007 – North America
Society of Actuaries Annual Meeting and Exhibit
INFORMS Annual Meeting 2007
SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition - 2007
38th Annual Meeting of the Decision Sciences Institute - DSI 2007
Australian Risk Management Summit 2007
PMI New Zealand
International Conference on Operations and Quantitative Management
SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference
Palisade is pleased to announce the schedule for its North America User Conference is now available. Kicked off by an overview of the new @RISK 5.0 from Palisade president Sam McLafferty, the schedule includes a keynote address discussing business and financial applications of @RISK from noted author and professor Dr. Wayne Winston. A top MBA professor at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business, Dr. Winston will speak on sports modeling, project selection, capital budgeting, and more.
Tracks include hands-on training using @RISK 5.0, @RISK for Project, and other Palisade software; software presentations on how to choose the best @RISK distribution and value real options; and industry case studies from actual users. Oil and gas, insurance loss modeling, utilities regulation, environmental applications and more will be presented by experts from Suncor, Florida Power and Light, and many others.
Please note that the schedule is subject to change without notice.
Swaps are a means of controlling risk. If a high price or a low price for a commodity, or a high or low rate for currency exchange or interest rates, represents risk, then a swap can “prevent” that risk from occurring. But there is a cost if the market swings in the opposite direction. For instance, a crude oil swap at $50 per barrel may save a company from having to sell oil below $50, but it must forego incremental profits if oil prices were to rise above $50 up to the swap volume. Thus swaps can be dangerous to one’s financial health in the sense of foregoing incremental profits!
and Wool Pricing
PrecisionTree Advanced Nodes
Logic Nodes - Logic nodes are a special type of node where the optimum branch is selected according to conditions the user defines. The name of this node derives from the fact that the pre-set conditions are usually phrased in a logic statement (using expressions such as "less than", "equal to", etc.). A logic node behaves like a decision node, but it selects the branch whose branch logic formula evaluates to TRUE as the logical (optimum) decision.
Reference Nodes - Reference nodes can be used to reference a sub-tree. The sub-tree can be on any sheet in the workbook. Use reference nodes to simplify a tree, to reference the same sub-tree many times in a tree, or to build a tree that’s too large to fit on one spreadsheet.
Australian banking security firm FraudSight detected more than AU$100 million worth of fraud over the last two years by applying data analytics and neural networking to financial crimes such as online banking fraud and money laundering.
» Using Engineering Techniques to Study
Systems biology software is taking advantage of the modeling, simulation, and analysis techniques created for engineering and mathematical systems. For example, the drug Artemisinin is a proven cure for malaria. At $2 per dose, however, it is far beyond the reach of the developing countries that need it most. A team of systems biologists solved this problem by designing a new organism that produces the same drug compound for $0.02 a dose.
Simulation allows engineers to observe a system in action, change its inputs, parameters, and components, and analyze the results computationally. Most engineering simulations are deterministic, but biological simulations must incorporate the innate randomness of nature. To account for this randomness, systems biologists use Monte Carlo techniques and stochastic simulations.
Derivative Fitch has released a beta version of its Vector CFXO model for collateralized foreign exchange obligations (CFXOs). Fitch’s quantitative analysis of forex reference assets is based on Monte Carlo simulation using asymmetric Garch processes with jumps to fit individual FX rates.
» Pre-kindergarten TB testing not cost effective,
The health care system in California could save nearly $1.3 million a year with few adverse public health effects if it discontinued universal tuberculosis skin testing of children entering kindergarten, according to a new study by researchers at the University of California, San Francisco. The study was conducted using a computer-based decision analysis model.
» SAS Customers Honored at Computerworld’s
Computerworld chose Healthways for its program employing artificial neural network predictive models to risk stratify health plan members and improve healthcare outcomes. Every day, the company helps more than 2.5 million people manage their health and potentially improve their quality of life.
Sometimes it makes sense to express a rule as an if-then statement, but often it is more useful to express a set of rules that involve the same conditional terms in either a table or tree form. A decision table is defined by the set of conditional terms as column headers with each row representing a single rule and the result of each rule in the final column.
A decision tree also combines a set of business rules into one graphical display, but rather than each rule being a row, each rule is a path through the tree, branching at each conditional term. Decision trees are extremely useful for viewing multiple related rules at once, to ensure that you have addressed all scenarios and that the rules makes business sense as a group.
The U.S. Department of Energy has designed a Web program to help oil and natural gas companies solve the environmental challenge of produced water. Produced water is water extracted from the subsurface with oil and gas. The program provides a decision tree for technological options to deal with produced water issues.
» Making sure retirement portfolio goes the distance: Older investor must weigh risk vs. time
» Are your finances ready for retirement?
» Nanotechnology fabrication depends on
Continuing miniaturization has moved the semiconductor industry into the nano realm with leading chip manufacturers well on their way to CPUs using 32nm process technology (expected by 2009). Being able to model and simulate nanodevices requires an entirely new generation of simulation tools and techniques. "Among the various simulation techniques, the most advanced is certainly the so-called Monte Carlo simulation method, based on the solution of particles physics and transport by means of random numbers" Dr. Jean Michel Sellier explains.
BP predicted the Brewers would win the division 76.6% of the time, running a real Monte Carlo and using the real schedule. I then reran the numbers with all possible outcomes for this series. Here are the results.
» Development of a New
The Monte Carlo method is a basic tool in particle transport problems, and it is well suited for tasks requiring the detailed modeling of geometry and physics. The method has been used in reactor physics calculations for decades, and the applications have mainly been restricted by computer capacity. In Leppänen's thesis, the use of the method is extended to new applications, when input parameters for three-dimensional reactor simulator calculations are generated using a Monte Carlo based lattice code.
» Carbon Nanoscrolls:
This is said by a report on the paper by New Scientist magazine to be more than twice the hydrogen storage density achieved so far with other materials.
Expert Answers to Technical Questions
I’d like to troubleshoot my @RISK model. Can I stop and view each iteration - one at a time?
Choosing ‘Monte Carlo’ for the Standard Recalc setting in @RISK for Excel allows you to single step through one Excel recalculation at a time, mimicking a single iteration in @RISK. This can be a helpful tool when troubleshooting a model.
To use this feature:
When a recalculation is executed by pressing the <F9> key, the cells that contain @RISK distribution functions appear as they would during execution of a simulation with new samples drawn for distribution functions each recalculation. @RISK is a perfect companion to PrecisionTree. @RISK allows you to 1) quantify the uncertainty that exists in the values and probabilities which define your decision trees, and 2) more accurately describe chance events as a continuous range of possible outcomes. Using this information, @RISK performs a Monte Carlo simulation on your decision tree, analyzing every possible outcome and graphically illustrating the risks you face.
E-mail comments or suggestions to:firstname.lastname@example.org
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