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» Risk and Decision Assessment Training using @RISK, Part II
» Improving Estimates and Budgets
» Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
PMI Global Congress 2007 – North America
Society of Actuaries Annual Meeting and Exhibit
INFORMS Annual Meeting 2007
SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition - 2007
38th Annual Meeting of the Decision Sciences Institute - DSI 2007
PMI Frankfurt Chapter Meeting
Risk Management Forum
@RISK 5.0 a Hit at Palisade User Conference
Sam McLafferty, President and CEO of Palisade Corporation provided an overview of the upcoming @RISK 5.0, and several sessions provided hands-on training with this new release. The response was overwhelmingly positive. Soon to be released in beta, @RISK 5.0 and its companion products in the DecisionTools Suite will set new standards in the risk and decision science marketplace.
User Conference Call for Presentations
@RISK and Evolver used for Enterprise Resource Planning
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Order @RISK FLEXnet network licenses and take 15% off. PLUS: Get a free upgrade to version 5.0 when released.
The aim of this presentation is to demonstrate @RISK to users with little or no experience with stochastic modeling, and to provide a good introduction to the basic features of the software. Additionally, the presentation will be useful for more expert users, should they want to consider using @RISK as a tool to model a number of practical business situations.
We will work on a number of models and case studies such as how to use @RISK to model the administration of an investment portfolio and how to design an @RISK model for the launch of a new business idea. We’ll design proforma cash-flow models, P&L, and balance statements.
» The application of statistical tools to business continuity management
The practical implementation of Monte Carlo simulation to business continuity has been greatly simplified by the emergence of Excel add-ins such as @RISK. It is used to calculate probabilities where there is no analytical formula and has been widely used in fields as diverse as:
Applying the technique to calculate, for example, losses from business disruption is very straightforward.
» Hedging foreign currency risks
Until recently, Indian exporters profited from the gradual depreciation of the rupee against the dollar, euro, or yen. With currency inflows and a fluctuating rupee, there is a need to consider hedging foreign currency receivables/payables. Systematic assessment requires thinking through the following “decision tree” process: To hedge or not? If no, the receivable is converted at maturity to rupees at the prevailing spot rate. If yes, then…
» After small-scale anthrax attack: vaccinate, treat
Researchers used Monte Carlo simulation over a 10-year time frame from a societal perspective to assess the most cost-effective response to an anthrax attack through US mail distribution centers in a large metropolitan area.
» Plan gets money out of land: Former teacher looks to sell real estate holdings to diversify nest egg for retirement
» Your Economic Dashboard: Personal Financial Ratios
» The Wisdom Of Brackets: Breaking complex questions into binary steps can lead to smarter calls
» Pension, health insurance again on city agenda
Battle Creek, MI faces an estimated $70 million cost to cover the current health insurance premiums for retired firefighters and police officers. Generating the money could require service cuts or a tax increase for Battle Creek households. City commissioners may work toward their decision using a decision tree that works through each choice. They can vote yes or no, and depending on the majority opinion, go to the next choice until a plan is settled upon.
» Don't Scrimp on System To Run Workers' Comp
Between 5% and 20% of the workers' comp claims insurers pay are fraudulent, bilking the industry out of something like $5 billion annually. A recent industry report recommends implementing neural networks in worker’s comp fraud prevention systems to identify potential fraud.
» Design flows become increasingly complex for SiGe BiCMOS
Silicon germanium (SiGe) BiCMOS technologies are used in a range of wireless and wired applications, such as cellular phones, wireless LANs, Bluetooth, and global positioning systems. Silicon foundries utilize Monte Carlo simulation to account for the effects for process variations.
» PAT Solution: Eight Advanced Process Control Technologies Worth Considering
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Process Analytical Technologies (PAT) initiative allows pharmaceutical manufacturers to optimize the way they use their plant assets to produce specific drugs, ultimately permitting them to reduce the price that the consumer pays for their products. Neural Networks can be amazing for determining quantitative relationships between plant operating variables. The resulting statistical models can be used predict "product quality" from real time data.
» Cost Benefit Study Supports the Use of Longport's Technology in Pressure Ulcer Prevention
Longport, Inc., a medical technology specialist in high-frequency high resolution ultrasound imaging, today announced interim results from a cost benefit study supporting the use of its EPISCAN I-200 system as an ulcer prevention tool. Analysis using Monte Carlo simulation showed the use of the EPISCAN Ultrasound diagnosis to be the preferred option 73.7% of the time.
» Early Alzheimer diagnosis possible, claims study
A collaborative study by US researchers has shown that Alzheimer's can be detected and diagnosed with a high rate of accuracy in its early stages with the help of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. The researchers monitored how the patients' brains reacted to a series of auditory stimuli by using automated neural network analysis.
» Robot nose given keen smell sense
A layer of artificial mucus has been found to improve the ability of an "electronic nose" to precisely sniff out aromas in foods and perfumes. An artificial nose consists of a much smaller array of chemical sensors, typically between six and 12, connected to a computer or neural network capable of recognizing patterns of molecules.
» Two Pulitzer Prices for the Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal has been honored with two Pulitzer Prizes, including the Public Service Gold Medal for uncovering the improper backdating by companies of executive stock options. Journal reporter Charles Forelle used Monte Carlo simulation to identify which companies were most likely to have been backdating their options.
» Shape-shifting 'smart dust' may explore alien worlds
Thousands of minuscule wireless sensors, or "smart dust", could one-day be used to explore other planets, swirling across the landscape by subtly altering their shape. Researcher John Barker employed Monte Carlo simulation to reproduce the erratic behavior of the Martian wind.
» The Unblinking Eye
Intelligent video analysis can locate potential terrorists and detect suspicious objects—all without a human operator. The Windows-based technology is based on sophisticated adaptive processing and neural networks. The software detects suspicious situations with an accuracy rate between 95% and 98%.
» Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Hospital Pharmacy Bar Code Solution
» How L’Ecuyer Fine Tunes Number Randomization
How do I run multiple simulations to see how changes in model variables affect my simulation results?
Example Model: SENSIM.XLS
As you know, @RISK sensitivity analysis lets you see the impact of uncertain model parameters on your results. But what if some of the uncertain model parameters are under your control? In this case the value a variable will take is not random, but can be set by you. For example, you might need to choose between some possible prices you could charge, different possible raw materials you could use or from a set of possible bids or bets. To properly analyze your model, you need to run a simulation at each possible value for the "user-controlled" variables and compare the results. A Sensitivity Simulation in @RISK allows you to quickly and easily do this - offering a powerful analysis technique for selecting between available alternatives.
In @RISK any number of simulations can be included in a single Sensitivity Simulation. The RiskSimtable function is used to enter lists of values, which will be used in the individual simulations, into your worksheet cells and formulas. @RISK will automatically process and display the results from each of the individual simulations together, allowing easy comparison.
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