June 2006

The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA) commissioned three prominent authorities in finance, actuarial science, and mathematics to develop a model using @RISK for pension and insurance risk planning. Kevin Ahlgrim, Illinois State
University, and Stephen D'Arcy and
Richard Gorvett, both of University of
Illinois Champaign-Urbana,
collaborated on the research and
the model development.

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Seminar Schedule
:: Regional Seminars
Risk and Decision Assessment Training using @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite
July 10–11, Seattle, WA
July 24–25, Montreal, QB

Project Risk Assessment
using @RISK for Project
July 31–Aug 1, Ithaca, NY

:: Live Web Training
Risk and Decision Assessment Using @RISK: Part I
June 28–29
July 17–18

Risk and Decision Assessment Using @RISK: Part II
July 20–21

full schedule and registration

Ask Amy
Expert Answers to
Technical Questions

Dear Amy,

Why is there a difference between the expected value that appears in the spreadsheet cell that contains an @RISK function and the mean of the simulation results for the input?

— A.S.

Dear A.S.,

This is normal statistical behavior, and is really the difference between a theoretical value and an observed value.

To illustrate, set up a simulation in the following way:

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