Risk and Decision Assessment Training with an Introduction to Insurance Applications
Feb. 6-7, Hamilton, Bermuda
Project Risk Assessment
using @RISK for Project
Jan. 26-27, Denver, CO
:: Live Web Training
Introduction to Risk and Decision Assessment Training Part I
Introduction to Risk and Decision Assessment Training Part II
I need to define an @RISK probability distribution, and I have a three-point estimate. But instead of using minimum, maximum, and most likely values, my estimates are the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles. Can I use these values as is?
- D. R., Columbus, OHDear D. R.,
Absolutely! With @RISK’s Alternate Parameters feature you can enter values for specific percentile locations of an input distribution. For example, you can define a triangular distribution using the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile values you have. To use Alternate Parameters, select the [ALT] button in the Define Distribution window and then check “Use Alternate Parameters to Specify This Distribution”. Then select the parameters and percentiles you want to use. You can even mix and match alternate and traditional parameters to meet your needs.
NeuralTools Used for Tumor Diagnosis
Researchers at the Katharinenhospital in Stuttgart, Germany are using Palisade NeuralTools for classification and grading of tumors. Tumor grading is a very important aspect of diagnosis since the treatment and outcome of each case depends greatly on the assigned grade. Neural networks analysis, which intelligently predicts outcomes based on multiple pieces of input data, is a natural fit for such medical diagnosis applications.
:: Tumor Malignancy Predictions
Leading the research was Dr. José R. Iglesias-Rozas, Associate Professor at the Universität Tübingen and researcher at the Laboratory of Neuropathology in the Institute for Pathology at Katharinenhospital. The aim of Dr. Iglesias-Rozas’ study was to predict the degree of malignancy of tumors based on ten discrete characteristics in 786 patients.
:: NeuralTools Analysis
The NeuralTools training set consisted of 629 tumors and 157 independent cases were used as the NeuralTools test set. NeuralTools accurately predicted 98.58 % of the training set cases and 95 % of the testing set cases!
According to Dr. Iglesias-Rozas, “I am delighted with the program for its speed and the easy handling.” He adds: "The program is super quick".
What’s next for NeuralTools and the study? Dr. Iglesias-Rozas explains, “We have over 30 years of data and more than 8000 patients with different brain tumors to assess next.”
Risk in Agricultural Policy
:: Cornell & Purdue use @RISK to Assess US Agricultural Policy
The US Government spent $24 billion on farm programs in 2000. Researchers at Cornell University and Purdue University recently completed a study that assesses the impacts of US farm programs on farm returns. The researchers used Palisade’s @RISK to create a simulation model that illustrates the effects of government policy tools on farm incomes.
:: @RISK Simulation Model
The @RISK simulation model demonstrated that a combination of all government programs would raise average farm incomes by almost 45%. Additionally, the programs would reduce the economic risks associated with farming by half.
:: @RISK Vital to the Study
Assistant Professor Brent Gloy of Cornell University’s Applied Economics and Management Department was one of the researchers. “@RISK was vital to the simulation model. It allowed us to incorporate uncertainties and run random simulations on the various scenarios.” He adds, “@RISK’s ability to correlate distributions of random variables was essential to the model. Additionally, we used @RISK’s output statistics to compare the various model scenarios.”
@RISK is the leading risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation add-in for Microsoft Excel. @RISK is available in Standard, Professional, and Industrial Editions to meet a broad range of risk analysis needs. @RISK Industrial has all the advanced analytical features of @RISK Professional, such as integrated data fitting, Goal Seek, and Stress Analysis, but adds a whole lot more.
@RISK Industrial integrates @RISKAccelerator which speeds up large simulations by using all CPUs in a multi-CPU computer. Additionally @RISK Industrial includes RISKOptimizer. RISKOptimizer combines the power of Monte Carlo simulation with genetic algorithms for the ultimate in problem solving and optimization. RISKOptimizer finds the best combination of controllable input variables while accounting for uncertain, uncontrollable factors in every scenario. No other package can maximize your return or minimize your exposure quite like RISKOptimizer.
@RISK Industrial provides the ultimate in risk analysis speed, flexibility, and features. With @RISK Industrial, power risk analysts can take on any risk assessment challenge.
According to René Köhler, Aftermarket Business Planning Manager at Rolls-Royce, "I really appreciate working with @RISK. It is a simple-to-use tool that calculates scenarios for a given situation. The result tells you how likely it is that a scenario will happen. The simulation results can be displayed as graphs and charts that have presentation quality."
Introducing NeuralTools continued from above :: Extensive Beta Testing :: Introductory Offer – Save up to 50%
:: Live Prediction Feature a Standout
Two powerful new features separate NeuralTools from its competition. NeuralTools Live Prediction updates the predicted results automatically when the input data changes. Also, One-step Train-Test-Predict accelerates your work by completely automating the analysis process, from raw data to prediction.
Over 2000 professionals previewed beta versions of NeuralTools and many provided unsolicited feedback. “I have been very happy with this new product,” wrote Michael Cochrane, research engineer for the U.S. Army. “I particularly like the Live Prediction feature.” Consultant and PhD candidate Barb Tawney adds, “NeuralTools was very easy to use, much like StatTools. Summary: Ease of Use 10/10. Results 10/10. It is a must have for Excel users.”
Be the first to take advantage of NeuralTools robust and accurate prediction capabilities. Save up to 50% when you purchase NeuralTools before December 31, 2005. This offer is only available by contacting your Palisade Regional Sales Manager at 800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000 or firstname.lastname@example.org
:: Extensive Beta Testing
:: Introductory Offer – Save up to 50%