University of Adelaide Prof uses Palisade's @RISK to Predict FIFA World Cup
Steve Begg is Professor of Decision-making and Risk Analysis in the University’s Australian School of Petroleum. His research and teaching focuses on decision-making under uncertainty, and the psychological and judgmental factors that impact it. Normally he applies this work to decision-making in the oil and gas and other industries.
For the FIFA World Cup, which kicked off last week, he developed a Monte Carlo simulation of the competition using @RISK, based on team rankings with other input including recent form.
PrecisionTree Aids Commercial Law Firm in Case Outcome Estimates
Ascendion Law's Managing Partner, Chilwin Cheng, uses Palisade Corporation's PrecisionTree software to create detailed decision trees to map out the numerous probabilities at play in a commercial legal dispute. Cheng uses these trees to calculate estimates to clients regarding the risks and rewards of a case, forecast case budgets, understand investigation areas that warrant greater effort, and help focus settlement negotiations with opposing sides.
@RISK Aids SCIRT in New Zealand Earthquake Rebuild
Facing a massive rebuilding project after two devastating earthquakes in 2010 and 2011, the New Zealand government and Christchurch City Council established the Stronger Christchurch Infrastructure Rebuild Team (SCIRT) to repair infrastructure. SCIRT's job was to provide a cost-effective and efficient vehicle to quickly get the city's civil infrastructure back on its feet. Palisade's @RISK was used to apply a risk framework to the $2.2 billion project.
Johns Hopkins and Interdisciplinary Solutions Use @RISK to Support Pandemic Preparedness at Mayo Clinic Rochester
A severe influenza pandemic could overwhelm hospitals, but planning guidance that accounts for specifics is lacking. To address this issue, Mark Abramovich of Interdisciplinary Solutions, LLC, decided to apply Monte Carlo simulation via @RISK. Working with several other experts, the team was able to gather data to run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations using various combinations of variables to determine resource needs across a spectrum of scenarios.
Kinder Morgan uses @RISK for Cost Estimate Risk Analysis of $7.4B Trans-Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project
The Trans-Mountain Pipeline Expansion Project (TMEP) in Western Canada features some big, even daunting, numbers: 700 miles, 900,000 barrels of crude oil and refined oil a day, four years to build, and the biggest and most significant number of all, its projected cost of approximately $7.4 Billion. Risk quantification in any project requires not only an experienced and competent analyst, but also a reliable risk model. Hired by Kinder Morgan, John Zhao, of Riskcore Ltd. used @RISK to perform cost estimate risk analysis for project contingency (uncertainties) and escalation (inflation) on the TMEP.
@RISK Aids Innovative Oil & Gas Producer Red Leaf Resources in Development of New Shale Extraction Technology
Red Leaf Resources, Inc. (RLR), based in Salt Lake City, is a start-up energy company focused on providing a novel method for accessing oil shale reserves with the smallest environmental impact possible. Using @RISK, RLR has been able to give stakeholders a view of the range of potential outcomes, including ranges of Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return, depending on variations in factors affecting these numbers.
Petroleum and Petrochemical Leader Sinopec uses @RISK to Evaluate Major Projects
Petrochemical giant Sinopec often encounters projects worth up to US$10bn. Such projects not only have enormous risks, but also have long construction periods that may be 5 to 6 years from commencement to completion in normal conditions. During construction, risks are manifold and scenarios unpredictable, making risk analysis essential.
Jin Feng, Project Risk Manager at Sinopec Engineering Group, uses @RISK frequently for risk quantification, mathematical models of risk, and other related topics applied to refinery bidding, mergers, and investment projects.
@RISK used by National Grid in Electricity Network Restoration
Although total and even maor partial system failures are rare, utilities still need to be prepared to respond to them by developing detailed and robust service restoration plans. National Grid UK, the electicity transmission system owner for England and Wales and the system operator for all of Great Britain, uses @RISK's probabilistic modeling techniques to measure network restoration performance in a variety of simulated failure scenarios. This allows them to estimate what and how long it will take to fix their system if it shuts down.
CONTI Uses @RISK for Shipping Success
After the financial crisis of 2007-2008, the European Union introduced new requirements for better regulation and supervision of the financial sector. CONTI-Group was already unique in its reputation for financial transparency, but when these regulatory requirements for visibility were introduced, CONTI began using Palisade’s @RISK to construct financial models that capture and assess potential risks in the fluctuating shipping market. This has enabled the company to provide higher levels of transparency to its investors, successfully steer its shipping fleet, and subsequently generate above-average results on its investments.
Amway Improves Capacity Planning with @RISK and Palisade Custom Services
Faced with a planned expansion that eventually added five new manufacturing sites, Amway's Industrial Engineering team wanted to find a solution that required less time for data collection, thereby provideing more time for critical analysis. Hence, they partnered with Palisade's Custom Development team to design a new interface and customize Amway's Excel-based models, using @RISK in the background to power analysis.
@RISK Used to Prepare Hospitals for Hurricane Strike
Due in part to the significant impact of hurricane season on the Gulf Coast of the U.S., Louisiana is considered a "wet lab" for emergency preparedness. As part of its annual preparations, the State creates and maintains plans that involve the full coastal evacuation of entire hospitals and nursing homes in Southeastern Louisiana, mostly via aircraft. Palisade's @RISK software plays a critical part in both estimating needs, and justifying resources.