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Example Models

@RISK Models

xls Building Onshore Versus Offshore

Minimum Edition: @RISK 6.0 Industrial. The purpose of this model is to provide a comparison between building an onshore plant in the U.S. and building an offshore plant in China. The model is for a company based in the U.S. with sales in the U.S. However, despite transportation costs, there might be benefits to building in China. The model includes uncertainty in the exchange rate, weekly demand, and amounts of extra weekly capacity available. The future exchange rates are based on fitting historical exchange rates with @RISK's Time Series Fit tool.

xls Capacity Decision with Time Series

Minimum Edition: @RISK 6.0 Industrial. A manufacturing company that is building a new production facility for the next 15 years must decide how much capacity to build now in the face of future demand uncertainty, where demand in excess of capacity is lost. Future demands are forecast by using @RISK's Time Series Fit tool on historical demand data. There is also uncertainty in the plant cost, the unit production cost, and the unit operating cost.

xls Comparison of Ordering Policies

Minimum Edition: @RISK Industrial. A company faces infrequent and uncertain demands for a high-priced product. The company orders the product from a supplier, and there is an uncertain lead time from when an order is placed until it arrives. The company wants an ordering policy that keeps average inventory low but also keeps stockouts low. The model compares a standard ordering policy to a more anticipatory policy.

xls Line Balancing

Minimum Edition: @RISK Industrial. This is a simplified model of a multistage manufacturing process. Each stage has a number of identical machines, and each machine can produce a random number of items in a fixed period of time. Each stage feeds the next stage. However, any stage from stage 2 on can produce only as many items as it receives, even it has the potential to produce more. The problem is to determine the number of machines at each stage to maximize mean profit, which is the revenue from selling all items produced during the period minus the operating costs of the machines.

xls Managing Supplier Inventory, Production

Minimum Edition: @RISK Industrial. This is a supply chain model of the relationship between a manufacturer and its supplier, modeled from the point of view of the supplier. The manufacturer produces several products with random daily demands. These products require several components from the supplier. The supplier produces these components and stores them at the manufacturer's site so that they are on hand when needed. In turn, the components requires several subcomponents. These subcomponents are stored at the supplier's location for use in the components. Production of components and subcomponents is driven by two sets of decision variables, triggers and batch sizes, and the model explores the effects of these.

xls Newsvendor Model with Demand Diversion

Minimum Edition: @RISK Industrial. This model illustrates the newsvendor ordering model in a multiple-product setting with the possibility of demand diversion. This means that if supply of product A, say, is not sufficient to satisfy demand for product A, some customers (but not all of them) who wanted product A but couldn't get it are willing to purchase another product instead.

xls Supply Chain Disruptions

This model illustrates how disruptions at suppliers, such as weather, strikes, or others, can affect a supply chain, and how such disruptions can be mitigated. The model has two suppliers and two manufacturers. Normally, each supplier supplies a single manufacturer. However, there are occasional disruptions at the suppliers, and each disruption can last a random number of weeks. If an order is placed during a disruption period, this order is ignored by the supplier, resulting in an increased chance of stockouts at the manufacturer. The model explores the mitigation strategy where the manufacturers can "share" suppliers.

 

 

 

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