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Example Models

@RISK Features

xls Sensitivity Analysis with Simtable

This simple model illustrates how the RiskSimtable function can be used for a quick sensitivity analysis on an input. The year 1 price in cell C3 drives future prices, as well as current and future sales, and hence revenues. The RiskSimtable function lets you see how the outputs, the yearly revenues, vary for different initial prices.

xls Modeling Costs from Events 1 - At Most One Event

This simple model illustrates one way to model a cost that might occur in any of the next 12 months. There are three inputs: (1) a Bernoulli random variable that indicates whether an event will occur in the next year; (2) a discrete random variable that indicates the month when the event occurs (if it occurs at all); and (3) a Pert random variable that indicates the cost if the event occurs. The outputs include monthly costs and the NPV of these costs.

xls Modeling Costs from Events 2 - Multiple Possible Events

This model extends the previous model so that an event is possible in each of the 12 months. Now the inputs include (1) a Bernoulli random variable for each month that indicates whether an event occurs that month; and (2) a Pert random variable that specifies the cost in that month if an event occurs. In addition, the model includes correlations between event occurrences and between monthly costs.

xls Modeling Costs from Events 3 -
       Multiple Possible Events Throughout Year

This model is another variation of the two previous models. Now any number of events (up to a maximum) can occur during the year, and a discrete distribution over the months indicates when each of the events occurs. Then for each of these events, a discrete distribution generates the month of occurrence. Finally, the costs for all events are generated from a Pert distribution, and the model builds in weak correlations (0.25) between these costs.

xls Risk Results Graph

This model illustrates the RiskResultsGraph function for creating (non-interactive) graphs of specified inputs or outputs when a simulation is run.

xls Travel Expense with RiskCollect

This model simulates the daily expenses of a business traveler who faces uncertainty each day on whether he makes a trip, and if so, the miles, miles per hour, miles per gallon, and price per gallon for the trip. Its outputs are total cost and total hours driven for a month, and it uses the RiskCollect function to enable sensitivity analysis of these outputs to "inputs" of interest, such as the average miles per gallon per trip.

 

 

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