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Product: NeuralTools
Application: Credit and debt risk analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Product: @RISK
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
Novartis Pharmaceutical
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Product: @RISK
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Hedge Fund management
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Product: @RISK
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Product: @RISK
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
READ ALSO
In Academic:
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
Casualty Actuary Society
Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning
SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Finance/Banking Models
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling Business Valuation Scenarios for a Surgery Center
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Estimating Outcomes of Litigation
Industry: Legal
Product: @RISK
Application: Infrastructure Cost Estimation
Industry: Construction
Product: @RISK
Application: Refinery Optimization
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Pandemic Preparedness
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance/Banking
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil Exploration
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Technology Implementation
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy and Public Policy
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Statistical analysis
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Sports Wagering
Product: @RISK
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Options and Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Product: @RISK
Application: Election Forecasting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Product: StatTools, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Operations Research
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Transportation research
Product: @RISK
Application: Food Safety
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Managerial Decision Making
Product: @RISK
Application: Health and food safety
Product: @RISK
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
Product: @RISK
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Organizational Dynamics
Product: DecisionTools Suite, @RISK, TopRank
Application: Viral Exposure
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Financial Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Product: @RISK
Application: Value at Risk Analysis
READ ALSO
In Agriculture:
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
Product: @RISK
Application: Agricultural Investment
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture
Lower Colorado River Authority
Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
Novartis Pharmaceutical
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Disease Prevention
Product: @RISK
Application: New product development, feasibility studies, business initiatives
Product: @RISK
Application: Schedule risk assessment
Product: @RISK
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Market Feasibility
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Financial Risk Management in Agriculture
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
Product: @RISK
Application: Food Safety
Product: @RISK
Application: Biosecurity to Avoid Disease Introduction
Product: @RISK
Application: Analyzing Hybrid Varieties of Rice Crops
Product: @RISK
Application: Agricultural Investment
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating Financial Risk in new Salmon Farming Scenarios
Product: @RISK
Application: Food safety, Detection of BSE
Department of Agriculture
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Wool Pricing
Product: @RISK
Application: Helping aquatic farmers to make informed choices that reduce risk of disease in their animals without extensive and costly testing
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating enterprise risks using risk modelling for a cash flow based approach
Product: @RISK
Application: Fire Risk Mitigation
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project cost and schedule risk analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link
Product: @RISK
Application: Infrastructure Cost Estimation
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Estate Development
Electricity Company
Product: @RISK
Application: Demand Forecasting
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost Reduction
Services Limited
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Product: @RISK
Application: Drilling Productivity
Product: @RISK
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
Product: @RISK
Application: ROI of Different Projects
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project Planning
Product: @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Product: @RISK
Application: Price Hedging
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost estimation
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Exploration, Drilling, and Production Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy supply and Electricity Demand
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Rescue Operations
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration
Public Service Company
Product: @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Product: @RISK
Application: Exploration & Production
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Energy Production and Pricing
Product: @RISK
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Product: @RISK
Application: Refinery Optimization
Product: @RISK
Application: Solar energy savings
Product: @RISK
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
Product: @RISK
Application: Return on Investment
SEE ALSO:
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection
SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Energy Models
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
Lower Colorado River Authority
Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection
UK Environment Agency
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Product: @RISK
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Endangered Species Protection
READ ALSO
In Academic:
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Product: @RISK
Application: Helping aquatic farmers to make informed choices that reduce risk of disease in their animals without extensive and costly testing
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Credit and debt risk analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Product: @RISK
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
Novartis Pharmaceutical
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Product: @RISK
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Hedge Fund management
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Product: @RISK
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Product: @RISK
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
READ ALSO
In Academic:
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
Casualty Actuary Society
Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning
SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Finance/Banking Models
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Product: @RISK
Application: Budgeting
Product: @RISK
Application: Urban Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Projection
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Disaster Response Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Air Quality
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Insurance Premium Reduction
Product: @RISK
Application: Food safety, monitoring contaminants
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk for Acquisitions
Product: @RISK
Application: Project management, cost estimation, event risk
READ ALSO
In Environment:
UK Environment Agency
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Management

Product: NeuralTools
Application: Enhancement of MRIs
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Enhancement of MRIs
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: rNPV of New Companies and Technologies
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling Business Valuation Scenarios for a Surgery Center
Product: @RISK
Application: Pandemic Preparedness
Institute for Pathology
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Medical Diagnosis
of Health and Mental Hygiene
Product: @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Application: Future Pandemic Planning
Product: NeuralTools, StatTools
Application: Forecasting Patient Load
Product: @RISK
Application: Disease Prevention
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Public Health screening
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating kidney function for organ transplant
READ ALSO
In Finance:
Novartis Pharmaceutical
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Planning
Product: @RISK, BestFit
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Projection
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Catastrophic Drought Risk
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Reinsurance Strategy
Product: @RISK
Application: Cell Captive Insurance
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Environmental Rehabilitation
Product: @RISK
Application: Comparing commercial properties; RAROC
Casualty Actuary Society
Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning
READ ALSO
In Government:
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Product: @RISK
Application: Insurance Premium Reduction
SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Insurance Models
Product: @RISK
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost Justification of Water Recycling Systems
Product: @RISK
Application: Factory Shutdown
Product: @RISK
Application: Supply Chain Management
Product: @RISK Developer Kit (RDK)
Application: Value at Risk (VaR)
Product: @RISK
Application: Future Net Income Forecasting
Project Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Management
Product: Evolver, @RISK
Application: Enterprise Resource Planning
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project Evaluation
Product: @RISK
Application: Tolerance Stacking
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Management
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Product launch, capex, and many others
READ ALSO
In Finance:
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Product: @RISK
Application: Six Sigma Quality Analysis
Product: Evolver, @RISK
Application: Six Sigma Quality Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Product: DecisionTools Suite, PrecisionTree
Application: Evaluating Efficacy of Public Health Initiatives
READ ALSO
In Government:
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Projection
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Endangered Species Protection
& Transport, Denmark
Product: @RISK
Application: Transportation Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Product: @RISK
Application: Project management
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Demand and Pricing Elasticity
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Risk and cost-benefit analysis to enhance the safety of ships and ship systems
Product: @RISK
Application: Pavement Cost Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Product: @RISK for Project
Application: Regulation Compliance in Public Transit Projects
Product: @RISK, TopRank, BestFit, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Transportation Safety and Investments
Product: @RISK
Application: Capital Investment
Product: @RISK
Application: Infrastructure PPP projects
Product: @RISK
Application: PPP rail project financing
Product: @RISK
Application: Freight transport
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling Business Valuation Scenarios for a Surgery Center
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Estimating Outcomes of Litigation
Industry: Legal
Product: @RISK
Application: Infrastructure Cost Estimation
Industry: Construction
Product: @RISK
Application: Refinery Optimization
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Pandemic Preparedness
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance/Banking
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Financial Risk Management in Agriculture
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Application: rNPV of New Companies and Technologies
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Industry: Academia
Application: Sports Wagering
Industry: Shipping
Application: Risk and cost-benefit analysis to enhance the safety of ships and ship systems
Industry: Energy
Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Evaluating Efficacy of Public Health Initiatives
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
Novartis Pharmaceutical
Industry: Financing/Banking
Application: Portfolio Management
Industry: Utilities
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Telecommunications
Application: Enterprise Risk Management
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Design of Experiments
Industry: Finance
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Evaluation
Industry: Engineering, Construction
Application: Project cost and schedule risk analysis
Industry: Academic
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Sustainable energy (project consulting)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Industry: Finance
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Product launch, capex, and many others
Industry: Healthcare / Pharmaceutical
Application: Public Health screening
Industry: Energy, Finance, Medical, and more
Application: Managerial Decision Making
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
Industry: Sciences
Application: Viral Exposure
Industry: Environment
Application: Endangered Species Protection
SEE ALSO
In StatTools:
Industry: Academic
Application: Operations Research
In @RISK:
Public Service Company
Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Electricity Company
Industry: Energy and Utilities
Application: Demand Forecasting
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Assessing Catastrophic Drought Risk
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Services Limited
Industry: Energy
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
Services Limited
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Academic
Application: Health and food safety
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost Reduction
Industry: Aerospace
Application: New product development, feasibility studies, business initiatives
Industry: Environment
Application: Cost Justification of Water Recycling Systems
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Environment
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Analysis
Industry: Finance
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Industry: Energy
Application: Drilling Productivity
Industry: Academic
Application: Oil Exploration
Industry: Mining
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Industry: Academic
Application: Climate Change
Industry: Nuclear Energy / Energy Infrastructure
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
& Transport, Denmark
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Planning
Industry: Energy
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Industry: Transportation / Government
Application: Project management
Industry: Academic
Application: Energy and Public Policy
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
Illinois State University
Industry: Insurance
Application: Reinsurance Strategy
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Factory Shutdown
Industry: Energy
Application: Equipment Reliability
Lower Colorado River Authority
Industry: Environment
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Quality Analysis
Industry: Academic
Application: Statistical analysis
Industry: Government
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Cell Captive Insurance
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Financial Planning for Environmental Rehabilitation
Industry: Energy
Application: ROI of Different Projects
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, SHE Risk Management, Operational Risk Management
Industry: Energy research organisation
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
Industry: Government/Defense
Application: Budgeting
Industry: Transportation
Application: Pavement Cost Analysis
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
Industry: Energy / Utilities
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Industry: Energy
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Industry:Transportation
Application: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Industry: Energy
Application: Price Hedging
Industry: Government
Application: Urban Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Supply Chain Management
Industry: Finance
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
Industry: Energy
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Industry: Energy
Application: Investment Analysis
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Flood Protection
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceuticals
Application: Modeling Business Valuation Scenarios for a Surgury Center
UK Environment Agency
Industry: Environment
Application: Flood Management
Industry: Government
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
Industry: Medical
Application: Blood Screening
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost estimation
Industry: Academic / Pharmaceutical
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Industry: Academic
Application: Real Options and Finance
Industry: Academic
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Industry: Environment
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Energy Supply and Electricity Demand
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Future Net Income Forecasting
Industry: Medical
Application: Pandemic Preparedness
Industry: Academic / Politics
Application: Election Forecasting
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Food Safety
Industry: Government
Application: Disaster Response Planning
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Biosecurity to Avoid Disease Introduction
Industry: Government
Application: Air Quality
Project Management
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule risk assessment
Industry: Government
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Finance
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Industry: Academic
Application: Mining Engineering
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Construction
Application: Evaluating enterprise risks using risk modelling for a cash flow based approach
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Finance
Application: Budget Forecasting
of Health and Mental Hygiene
Industry: Medical
Application: Future Pandemic Planning
Public Service Company
Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Industry: Construction
Application: Fire Risk Mitigation
Industry: Government
Application: Budget Projection
Industry: Construction
Application: Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
Industry: Construction
Application: Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link
Industry: Finance
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Energy
Application: Exploration & Production
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Tolerance Stacking
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Industry: Government
Application: Insurance Premium Reduction
Industry: Environment, Government
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Property
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Industry: Medical
Application: Disease Prevention
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
Industry: Energy
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Industry: Insurance
Application: Comparing commercial properties; RAROC
Industry: Government
Application: Food safety, monitoring contaminants
Industry: Energy
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Transportation
Application: Capital Investment
Casualty Actuary Society
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning
Industry: Financial Forensics
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits.
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Infrastructure
Industry: Construction
Application: Infrastructure Cost Estimation
Industry: Academic
Application: Venture Capital Management
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
Industry: Academic
Application: Transportation research
Industry: Utilities
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Market Feasibility
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Refinery Optimization
Industry: Energy
Application: Solar energy savings
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» Finance/Banking Models

When multiple sources of debt with different financing terms are available to the decision maker–for example, a ten-year loan with 5% interest, and a 5-year loan with 10% interest–the environment is fraught with uncertainty. “The challenge is to determine an appropriate or optimal mix of these different debt sources that simultaneously maximizes project value and reduces the risk of default,” explains Dr. Emmanuel Donkor, a quantitative analyst and faculty member of the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) at George Washington University. To address complicated debt portfolio and capital investment problems, Donkor uses Palisade software @RISK and RISKOptimizer. His research has led to new and better methods for addressing financial statistical problems, using @RISK.
Dr. Donkor used Palisade software tools @RISK and RISKOptimizer to conduct two separate research projects published in the journal the Engineering Economist. The first tackled the improvement of debt portfolios for financing capital investment plans, while the other project empirically tested stochastic dominance relationships in risky capital investments.
Diversifying DebtIn his first project published in the Engineering Economist, Donkor, along with Associate Professor Michael Duffey, addressed the question of how project promoters, who wish to use project finance as a procurement vehicle, can choose an optimal debt portfolio. The aim for these promoters is to develop a portfolio that maximizes project value but minimizes default risk when project cash flows are uncertain, and when debt with different financing terms can be sourced from multiple sources. For example, the promoter may face the previously-mentioned situation of multiple sources of debt with different financing terms—such as a ten-year loan with 5% interest, and a 5-year loan with 10% interest. “It is a difficult problem because the environment is fraught with uncertainty,” says Dr. Donkor.
To address this decision problem, Dr. Donkor and Dr. Duffey used @RISK and RISKOptimizer to help analyze and then recommend an appropriate mix of different debt instruments for financing a capital investment project. “Palisade’s RISKOptimizer allows the analyst to incorporate what’s known as probabilistic or chance constraints—this ensures that the risk of defaulting on loan payments, in any given period of the loan tenure is limited to say 5%,” says Dr. Donkor. They first developed a stochastic financial model in Excel, and used RISKOptimizer’s simulation optimization capability to select an optimal mix of fixed-rate debt instruments such that default occurred no more than 5% of the time. They then used @RISK simulation to evaluate the performance of the debt policy prescribed by the optimization model.
This new approach improves on the traditional methods used in risk analysis in capital investment planning, in which analysts would “take the value of debt as given, and simulate it without taking into consideration the probability of default on debt service each year,” says Dr. Donkor. “Furthermore, analysts do not consider multiple sources of debt with different financing terms—you hardly ever see debt portfolios with different terms and interest rates—it’s usually homogenous, with debt having one tenure and one interest rate.” Dr. Donkor and Dr. Duffey’s new approach, which shows how to model chance constraints in a spreadsheet environment, and implement it with Palisade’s RISKOptimizer, has sparked interest in the field. The paper detailing their work has become one of the highest ranked articles in the Engineering Economist.

Figure 1: The profile of excess earnings after debt service, indicating that the chances of defaulting on debt service are well contained.

Figure 2: Plot of excess earnings after interest coverage.


Ranking Opportunities
Dr. Donkor also addressed the problem that analysts face when they must choose between multiple, risky, mutually exclusive capital investments. He did this by creating a spreadsheet framework that uses Palisade’s @RISK to implement empirical tests of stochastic dominance—a term used in decision theory which describes the ranking of random prospects based on preferences regarding outcomes. As a result of Dr. Donkor’s work, analysts involved in comparing risky capital investments do not have to rely on qualitative and visually-based ‘best guesses’.
This solution benefits those who are faced with investment choices in which only one option can be selected. For example, a person owns a building, and has to decide whether to rent it out as residential apartments or as a factory. “You can’t do both at the same time,” says Dr. Donkor, “so you have to choose one option.”
Typically these kinds of opportunities are compared by using decision rules based on the mean-variance criterion (selecting portfolios based on the means and variances of their returns) or safety-first criterion (setting a minimum required return for a given level of risk). However, at times, the mean variance criterion and its variants result in an efficiency frontier in which more than one investment option offers maximal expected return for some given level of risk, and minimal risk for some given level of expected return. This can make it difficult to select only one option.
“The problem becomes complicated when you have opportunity A, which gives you the highest value, but it has a high risk, and opportunity B, which will give you lower value but a lower risk,” says Donkor. “As a decision maker, you want high value and low risk, but these qualities are not always enshrined in the same opportunity.” For such problems, stochastic dominance rules, typically implemented by visually inspecting the cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of the alternatives, are applied. However, for many practical applications, it is common for the distributions to cross tails, creating what’s known as the ‘tail problem’. In these circumstances, analysts apply what’s known as ‘almost stochastic dominance’ (ASD), which allows decision makers to ignore the crossing at the tails so that dominance inferences can be made.
These approaches are inexact and lack quantitative certainty; on top of these issues, Dr. Donkor says that most analysts do capital planning problems in Microsoft Excel, but are not able to make stochastic dominance inferences in that program. “A theory has been developed, but no one has turned that theory into a code in Excel where it can be used,” says Dr. Donkor. Thus, the majority of practitioners, researchers, and students who analyze alternative capital investment plans under uncertainty in Excel are limited to using either visual inspection or ASD without any empirical support.
Dr. Donkor has improved this process with his @RISK-enabled spreadsheet framework which empirically tests stochastic dominance. Now, instead of using a visual best guess, analysts can use an @RISK model to empirically test for the best option among many, allowing them to make empirically defensible decisions when comparing risky capital investments.
»
@RISK
» RISKOptimizer
»
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) at George Washington University
» "Empirical Tests of Stochastic Dominance in Capital Investment Planning: A Spreadsheet Framework"
in the The Engineering Economist
» "Optimal Capital Structure and Financial Risk of Project Finance Investments: A Simulation Optimization Model
With Chance Constraints" in the The Engineering Economist
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