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Case Studies
Recently Added
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
University of Tasmania
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
CONTI-Group
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Amway
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Louisiana Department of Health
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Rusnano
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
MRAG Asia Pacific
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
Academic
Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil Exploration
Bucknell University
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Technology Implementation
Cambridge University
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Columbia University
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy and Public Policy
Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Management
Curtin University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Statistical analysis
DePaul University/Advanced Analytics LLC
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Sports Wagering
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Options and Finance
INCAE Business School
Product: @RISK
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Election Forecasting
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Pace University
Product: StatTools, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Operations Research
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
Technical University of Denmark
Product: @RISK
Application: Transportation research
Tulane University
Product: @RISK
Application: Food Safety
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
University of Houston
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Managerial Decision Making
University of London Royal Veterinary College / EpiX Analytics
Product: @RISK
Application: Health and food safety
University Melbourne
Product: @RISK
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
University of New Brunswick
Product: @RISK
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
University of Pennsylvania
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Organizational Dynamics
University of Pretoria
Product: DecisionTools Suite, @RISK, TopRank
Application: Viral Exposure
University of Toronto
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Financial Management
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
University of Witwatersrand
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Virginia Commonwealth University
Product: @RISK
Application: Value at Risk Analysis

READ ALSO
In Agriculture:
Cornell University / Purdue University
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
University of Buenos Aires
Product: @RISK
Application: Agricultural Investment
University of Tokyo
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture
In Environment:
Cornell University /
Lower Colorado River Authority

Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
In Energy:
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
In Finance:
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
In Medical:
Royal Veterinary College
Product: @RISK
Application: Disease Prevention
Energy & Utilities
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Product: @RISK
Application: Demand Forecasting
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost Reduction
Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Product: @RISK
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
BC Hydro
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Analysis
Bigen Africa
Product: @RISK
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Blade Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Drilling Productivity
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
Product: @RISK
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Product: @RISK
Application: ROI of Different Projects
ECN
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
Enex
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project Planning
Fitness First
Product: @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Fluor Corporation
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Futuremetrics
Product: @RISK
Application: Price Hedging
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost estimation
IHS Energy Group
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Exploration, Drilling, and Production Analysis
Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy supply and Electricity Demand
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Metaproject
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Rescue Operations
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Product: @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Petrobras
Product: @RISK
Application: Exploration & Production
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
RiskAdvisory
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Energy Production and Pricing
Rudd Asset Management (RAM)
Product: @RISK
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Tioga Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Solar energy savings
Transelectrica
Product: @RISK
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
WEnergy Global
Product: @RISK
Application: Return on Investment

SEE ALSO:
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Energy Models

Environment
Air and Waste Management Association
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Aspinall & Associates
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
AECOM
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK)
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
Cornell University /
Lower Colorado River Authority

Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Management
Greenup Locks and Dam
Product: @RISK
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection
Halcrow Group Ltd /
UK Environment Agency

Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Management
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Kennecott Utah Copper
Product: @RISK
Application: Pollution Cleanup
MRAG Asia Pacific
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
NOAA Fisheries
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Purdue University
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Triangle Economic Research
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Pollution Cleanup
University of California, Berkeley
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
World Conservation Union
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Endangered Species Protection

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Cambridge University
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
In Agriculture:
World Aquatic Veterinary Medical Association (WAVMA)
Product: @RISK
Application: Helping aquatic farmers to make informed choices that reduce risk of disease in their animals without extensive and costly testing
Finance
Albert Fensterstock Associates
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Credit and debt risk analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Product: @RISK
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Cynametrix
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
FiduciaryVest
Product: @RISK
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
George Washington University
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
LStar Capital
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Merck
Product: @RISK
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Nighthawk Intelligence
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Performance Thinking & Technologies
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Hedge Fund management
Procter & Gamble
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Risqworx
Product: @RISK
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
RoseCap Investment Advisors
Product: @RISK
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
In Energy:
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
In Government:
Her Majesty's Prison Service
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
In Insurance/Reinsurance:
Society of Actuaries /
Casualty Actuary Society

Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Finance/Banking Models
Recently Added
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
University of Tasmania
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
CONTI-Group
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Amway
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Louisiana Department of Health
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Rusnano
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
MRAG Asia Pacific
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
DecisionTools Suite Cases
Aspinall & Associates
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK)
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Financial Risk Management in Agriculture
Captum Capital
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Application: rNPV of New Companies and Technologies
Cynametrix
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
DePaul University/Advanced Analytics LLC
Industry: Academia
Application: Sports Wagering
DNV GL SE
Industry: Shipping
Application: Risk and cost-benefit analysis to enhance the safety of ships and ship systems
Enex
Industry: Energy
Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
Linksbridge SPC
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Evaluating Efficacy of Public Health Initiatives
Logion BV
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Industry: Financing/Banking
Application: Portfolio Management
Major Utility in Eastern US
Industry: Utilities
Application: Load Forecasting
MegaFon
Industry: Telecommunications
Application: Enterprise Risk Management
Met-Mex Peñoles
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Design of Experiments
Nighthawk Intelligence
Industry: Finance
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Novelis
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Evaluation
PragmaRisk
Industry: Engineering, Construction
Application: Project cost and schedule risk analysis
Procter & Gamble
Industry: Academic
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Sark7
Industry: Sustainable energy (project consulting)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Industry: Finance
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Triangle Economic Research
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Unilever
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Product launch, capex, and many others
University of California San Diego School of Medicine
Industry: Healthcare / Pharmaceutical
Application: Public Health screening
University of Houston
Industry: Energy, Finance, Medical, and more
Application: Managerial Decision Making
University of Toronto
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
University of Pretoria
Industry: Sciences
Application: Viral Exposure
World Conservation Union
Industry: Environment
Application: Endangered Species Protection

SEE ALSO
In StatTools:
Pace University
Industry: Academic
Application: Operations Research

In @RISK:
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance


@RISK Cases
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Industry: Energy and Utilities
Application: Demand Forecasting
African Risk Capacity (ARC)
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Assessing Catastrophic Drought Risk
Air and Waste Management Association
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Industry: Energy
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
Amway
Services Limited

Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Analytics
Industry: Academic
Application: Health and food safety
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost Reduction
AgustaWestland
Industry: Aerospace
Application: New product development, feasibility studies, business initiatives
Antea Group
Industry: Environment
Application: Cost Justification of Water Recycling Systems
ARC of Yates
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Budget Forecasting
AECOM
Industry: Environment
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
BC Hydro
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Industry: Finance
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Bigen Africa
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Blade Energy
Industry: Energy
Application: Drilling Productivity
Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Industry: Academic
Application: Oil Exploration
Broadleaf Capital International
Industry: Mining
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Cambridge University
Industry: Academic
Application: Climate Change
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
Industry: Nuclear Energy / Energy Infrastructure
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Centre for Traffic
& Transport, Denmark

Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Planning
Cinergy
Industry: Energy
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
City of Edmonton / SMA Consulting
Industry: Transportation / Government
Application: Project management
Columbia University
Industry: Academic
Application: Energy and Public Policy
CONTI-Group
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Cornell University
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
CP Risk Solutions/
Illinois State University

Industry: Insurance
Application: Reinsurance Strategy
CP Risk Solutions/Illinois State University
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Factory Shutdown
Cranfield University
Industry: Energy
Application: Equipment Reliability
Cornell University/
Lower Colorado River Authority

Industry: Environment
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
Cornell University
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
Cummins Inc.
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Quality Analysis
Curtin University of Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Statistical analysis
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Industry: Government
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Deloitte
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Cell Captive Insurance
Deloitte AIS
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Financial Planning for Environmental Rehabilitation
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Industry: Energy
Application: ROI of Different Projects
DNV GL
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, SHE Risk Management, Operational Risk Management
ECN
Industry: Energy research organisation
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
ENGCOMP
Industry: Government/Defense
Application: Budgeting
Federal Highway Adminstration
Industry: Transportation
Application: Pavement Cost Analysis
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
FiduciaryVest
Industry: Finance
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
Fitness First
Industry: Energy / Utilities
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Fluor Corporation
Industry: Energy
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Fort McMurray Airport Authority (FMAA) / Revay and Associates Ltd.
Industry:Transportation
Application: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Futuremetrics
Industry: Energy
Application: Price Hedging
Gemeente Hoorn
Industry: Government
Application: Urban Planning
Graphic Era University - Dehradun
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Supply Chain Management
George Washington University
Industry: Finance
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
Greenup Locks and Dam
Industry: Energy
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Grupo ISA
Industry: Energy
Application: Investment Analysis
Halcrow
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Flood Protection
Halcrow Group Ltd /
UK Environment Agency

Industry: Environment
Application: Flood Management
Her Majesty's Prison Service
Industry: Government
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
Hospital Clinic Barcelona
Industry: Medical
Application: Blood Screening
Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost estimation
Illinois State University
Industry: Academic / Pharmaceutical
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Illinois State University
Industry: Academic
Application: Real Options and Finance
INCAE Business School
Industry: Academic
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Integral Consulting
Industry: Environment
Application: Mine Remediation
Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Energy Supply and Electricity Demand
JB Scherer Consulting Group LLC
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Future Net Income Forecasting
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University
Industry: Academic / Politics
Application: Election Forecasting
Kewpie Corporation and University of Tokyo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Food Safety
Katrina Disaster Response Center
Industry: Government
Application: Disaster Response Planning
Kennecott Utah Copper
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
KSU College of Veterinary Medicine
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Biosecurity to Avoid Disease Introduction
Kuwait Environment Public Authority
Industry: Government
Application: Air Quality
Larsen & Toubro Institute of
Project Management

Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Lockheed Martin / NASA
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule risk assessment
Louisiana Department of Health
Industry: Government
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
LStar Capital
Industry: Finance
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Merck
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Mining Engineering
MRAG Asia Pacific
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Murray & Roberts
Industry: Construction
Application: Evaluating enterprise risks using risk modelling for a cash flow based approach
National Grid UK
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Netconomy
Industry: Finance
Application: Budget Forecasting
New York City Department
of Health and Mental Hygiene

Industry: Medical
Application: Future Pandemic Planning
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
NOAA Fisheries
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Pantektor AB
Industry: Construction
Application: Fire Risk Mitigation
Pareto Solutions
Industry: Government
Application: Budget Projection
Patrick Engineering / MBTA
Industry: Construction
Application: Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
RD&I Consulting
Industry: Construction
Application: Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link
Pellegrino & Associates
Industry: Finance
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Petrobras
Industry: Energy
Application: Exploration & Production
Preformed Line Products
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Tolerance Stacking
ProjectPMO
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Post Danmark / PricewaterhouseCoopers
Industry: Government
Application: Insurance Premium Reduction
Purdue University
Industry: Environment, Government
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Red Leaf Resources
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
RisqWorx
Industry: Property
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Royal Veterinary College
Industry: Medical
Application: Disease Prevention
RoseCap
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
Rudd Asset Management (RAM)
Industry: Energy
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Scottsdale Insurance Company
Industry: Insurance
Application: Comparing commercial properties; RAROC
Shanghai Food and Drug Administration
Industry: Government
Application: Food safety, monitoring contaminants
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Industry: Energy
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Slovak Rail Company
Industry: Transportation
Application: Capital Investment
Society of Actuaries/
Casualty Actuary Society

Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Industry: Financial Forensics
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits.
Solvĕre
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Infrastructure
Swinburne University of Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Venture Capital Management
SzigmaSzervíz Ltd
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
Technical University of Denmark
Industry: Academic
Application: Transportation research
Tesla Consultants, Delta Utilities
Industry: Utilities
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Thales Group
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Market Feasibility
Tioga Energy
Industry: Energy
Application: Solar energy savings
Transelectrica
Industry: Power
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
Transae/Réseau Ferré de France
Industry: Transportation
Application: PPP rail project financing
Transnet
Industry: Transportation
Application: Freight Transport
Tulane University
Industry: Academic
Application: Food Safety
UK Ministry of Defence
Industry: Defence
Application: Project Management
University of Adelaide
Industry: Academic
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
University of Arkansas
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Analyzing Hybrid Varieties of Rice Crops
University of Buenos Aires
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agricultural Investment
University of California, Berkeley
Industry: Environment
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
University Melbourne
Industry: Academic / Agriculture
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
University of New Brunswick
Industry: Academic / Agriculture
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
University of Pennsylvania
Industry: Academic
Application: Organizational Dynamics
University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center
Industry: Health
Application: Evaluating kidney function for organ transplant
University of Tasmania
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
University of Tokyo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Food safety, detection of BSE
University Of Victoria
Industry: Academic
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
University of Witwatersrand
Industry: Academic
Application: Mining Engineering
US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA)
Industry: Government / Defense
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@RISK Used by Interdisciplinary Solutions to Help the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene Prepare for Future Pandemics

The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC DOHMH) is one of the world's oldest and largest public health agencies, with an annual budget of $1.6 billion and more than 6,000 staff.

In October 2008, its Health Emergency Preparedness Program, in collaboration with the Greater New York Hospital Association (GNYHA), was awarded funds by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to develop new strategies to mitigate a severe influenza pandemic should one occur. A key objective was to understand how essential healthcare services and their delivery would be affected.

Interdisciplinary Solutions executed the quantitative side of this year long public health project using its Panálysis model which projects healthcare demands during a pandemic to include critical product requirements and staffing needs. This epidemiologic model integrates Palisade’s risk and decision analysis software @RISK and RISKOptimizer in order to account for uncertainty. 

@RISK Used to Assess Nursing Capacity
A wide range of data was extracted from New York City’s 64 hospitals and, where data was not available, expert opinion and peer reviewed literature were used to define ranges for the inputs to the @RISK-based portions of the model. From there, Interdisciplinary Solutions generated a multitude of 'what-if' scenarios by using Monte Carlo Simulation to randomly select values for the input variables so that the results from each demonstrated a range of possible outcomes. The following example shows the utility of Monte Carlo simulation as performed through @RISK to determine nurse staffing needs during a severe pandemic.

Nurses are amongst the most critical working assets employed during a pandemic and their availability can significantly impact hospitals’ provision of service during an emergency situation. However, during an influenza pandemic, there is substantial uncertainty that surrounds nurse availability. To model and determine the nurse capacity that might be required during a pandemic to care for all hospital patients, Interdisciplinary Solutions took a number of variables into account. These incorporated the total number of nurses working in partner hospitals, including those involved in direct patient care and in a supervisory and administrative capacity, as well as full-time registered nurses and licensed practical nurses.

Additional consideration was given to the number of hospital beds, the number of shifts a nurse can perform in a week and the total number of shifts available in a week dependent on pre-pandemic occupancy. Nurse absenteeism on account of their own family members suffering from the disease or their desire to avoid exposing themselves to the virus, was also taken into account.

As such, Interdisciplinary Solutions used @RISK to study the differences in potential shortage levels and the effect of interventions designed to mitigate such shortages. One such intervention is the Agency for Healthcare Quality and Research’s (AHRQ) recommended nurse-patient modified standards of care ratios. (These are 16:1 for non-ICU patients and 5:1 for ICU patients).

After determining the actual nurse patient ratios in various parts of the hospital, Interdisciplinary Solutions studied the effect of using the AHRQ’s recommended modified standards of care nurse patient ratios for emergency situations where nursing shortages exist. By generating tens of thousands of results it was demonstrated that a middle case scenario can be very misleading in emergency preparedness. While the mean result (i.e. average) of all modelled interventions eliminates shortages, simulation demonstrates that in a sample hospital during peak pandemic weeks, even with interventions there would be:

  • A 26.5% chance that shortages would exist
  • A 10% chance of shortages of 46 nurses or above
  • A 5% chance of shortages of 67 nurses or above
  • A 1% chance of shortages of 102 nurses of above
  • A maximum potential shortage level of 149 nurses

RISKOptimizer Used to Create Critical Resource Capacity Scenarios for New York City Hospitals

Graph 1: Nurse overages and shortages as measured by full time equivalents using modified standards of care and all available interventions

Planning for severe pandemics is speculative especially because there is little retrospective data available on which to base projections. Therefore, rather than be confined by the limitations of historical statistical analysis, Interdisciplinary Solutions used RISKOptimizer, Palisade's simulation optimisation add-in for Microsoft Excel®, to understand the just how severe the effects of pandemics on critical resources can be.

Given the limited availability of historical data, in close coordination with a team of experts at the NYC DOHMH and the New York City pandemic Emergency Medical Services committee, Interdisciplinary Solutions populated 11 disease profile variables. These included: percentage of population infected seeking medical help; percentage of population actually requiring hospitalisation; average length of stay of non-ICU patients; and ICU fatality rate assuming no bed is available and that there are ventilator shortages. Inputs used realistic but deliberately broad ranges to account for the lack of historical data points.

Rather than use RISKOptimizer to determine the minimum or maximum shortage levels for any individual hospital, Interdisciplinary Solutions input the variables above into the model to determine the minimum and maximum ranges used to define the disease’s characteristics. From this, different plausible scenarios were created to ascertain resource requirements for ICU and non-ICU beds, ventilators and emergency department capacity that New York City hospitals would need in each of those eventualities. To ensure accuracy, Interdisciplinary Solutions, ran extensive simulations (up to half a million in some instances) to ascertain a minimum or maximum point to define the range. As such, these techniques allowed the NYC DOHMH to take a logical scientific approach to a task that would otherwise rely heavily on guess work.

“By nature, emergency preparedness situations are speculative and therefore not predictable. At the same time they are extremely high risk because peoples' lives are in danger. The key to handling such events is to acknowledge that our predictive abilities are limited and, with that in mind, to use quantitative methods to study a multitude of possibilities,” explains Mark Abramovich, principal at Interdisciplinary Solutions. “Palisade's @RISK and RISKOptimizer are designed to make it easy to do this, and the results generated enable organisations to plan for a wide range of scenarios.”

Graph 2: Values for disease profile characteristics that produce minimum and maximum shortage levels derived from RISKOPtimizer

Graph 2, developed from the results of RISKOptimizer, shows the maximum and minimum values for the 11 disease profile variables that correlate to minimum or maximum shortage levels of ICU and non-ICU beds, ventilators and emergency room visits based on a pandemic of similar severity to the one that occurred in 1918. The “Harvey Ball” portion demonstrates which quintile within the possible range of values the result fell.

Conclusion
The results of the study are now being reviewed by the CDC.

Building on this project, there is now potential to extend this study to include other variables in emergency preparedness such as pharmaceuticals, staff members other than nurses and supporting supplies (e.g. oxygen for ventilators) that could result in equipment not functioning properly. In addition, there is scope to analyse the effects of the geographical, spatial and temporal spread of the disease.

Additional Information

Distributions used
A severe pandemic is a low probability, high impact, event. When dealing with instances of this kind, use of distributions such as the normal distribution can be misleading (and potentially dangerous). This is because classic distribution patterns, such as the normal distribution are predicated on the idea that if there are an infinite number of historical data points, or at least many, many data points one can fit a curve to the distribution that best matches the pattern of historical data. However, historically major pandemics appear roughly once every 70 to 100 years and hence data collection is not as robust. Therefore, Interdisciplinary Solutions used expert opinion to determine some initial ranges since the consultancy only had the pandemic event of 1918 from which to work. For RISKOptimizer, a triangular distribution was used to acknowledge that there isn’t a historical distribution pattern available. Where @RISK was used, the consultancy used the Latin Hypercube method seeded with a random initial seed that fell within its estimated range.

Additional background information:

  1. An influenza pandemic is a global disease outbreak that occurs when a new strain of influenza virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity and for which there is no vaccine. The most severe pandemic influenza in recent history was the Avian Flu of 1918, which killed 660,000 people in the US out of a population of approximately 108 million. Typically, severe influenza pandemics occur roughly every 100 years, so it is imperative that the healthcare system is geared to deal with the intense surge in demand for medical services.
  1. For the NYC DOHMH study, Interdisciplinary Solutions collected data from 64 New York City hospitals and worked with three partner hospitals to perform in-depth analysis. 1918 was considered to be the benchmark for this study to measure the impact of a future pandemic on medical services in New York City but given the then current H1N1 threat, actual lessons from that experience were incorporated into the work.
  1. By coincidence, during the study, the H1N1 variant (now deemed mild) of the flu struck the globe and New York City, a region that in many ways was considered the pandemic’s epicentre in the United States. 
  1. Interdisciplinary Solutions' Panálysis model was initially developed in collaboration with the Center for Biosecurity at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, who provided expertise on a pro bono basis to better advance its public health and defence orientated mission. Since then, advancements include integrating risk and decision analysis software @RISK and RISKOptimizer from Palisade.

This publication was made possible by Grant Number 1U90TP000138-01 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to Public Health Solutions on behalf of the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene Healthcare Emergency Preparedness Program Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or Public Health Solutions or the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene Healthcare Emergency Preparedness Program.

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