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Case Studies
Recently Added
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
University of Tasmania
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
CONTI-Group
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Amway
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Louisiana Department of Health
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Rusnano
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
MRAG Asia Pacific
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
Academic
Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil Exploration
Bucknell University
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Technology Implementation
Cambridge University
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Columbia University
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy and Public Policy
Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Management
Curtin University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Statistical analysis
DePaul University/Advanced Analytics LLC
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Sports Wagering
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Options and Finance
INCAE Business School
Product: @RISK
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Election Forecasting
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Pace University
Product: StatTools, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Operations Research
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
Technical University of Denmark
Product: @RISK
Application: Transportation research
Tulane University
Product: @RISK
Application: Food Safety
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
University of Houston
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Managerial Decision Making
University of London Royal Veterinary College / EpiX Analytics
Product: @RISK
Application: Health and food safety
University Melbourne
Product: @RISK
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
University of New Brunswick
Product: @RISK
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
University of Pennsylvania
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Organizational Dynamics
University of Pretoria
Product: DecisionTools Suite, @RISK, TopRank
Application: Viral Exposure
University of Toronto
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Financial Management
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
University of Witwatersrand
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Virginia Commonwealth University
Product: @RISK
Application: Value at Risk Analysis

READ ALSO
In Agriculture:
Cornell University / Purdue University
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
University of Buenos Aires
Product: @RISK
Application: Agricultural Investment
University of Tokyo
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture
In Environment:
Cornell University /
Lower Colorado River Authority

Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
In Energy:
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
In Finance:
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
In Medical:
Royal Veterinary College
Product: @RISK
Application: Disease Prevention
Energy & Utilities
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Product: @RISK
Application: Demand Forecasting
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost Reduction
Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Product: @RISK
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
BC Hydro
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Analysis
Bigen Africa
Product: @RISK
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Blade Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Drilling Productivity
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
Product: @RISK
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Product: @RISK
Application: ROI of Different Projects
ECN
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
Enex
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project Planning
Fitness First
Product: @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Fluor Corporation
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Futuremetrics
Product: @RISK
Application: Price Hedging
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost estimation
IHS Energy Group
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Exploration, Drilling, and Production Analysis
Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy supply and Electricity Demand
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Metaproject
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Rescue Operations
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Product: @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Petrobras
Product: @RISK
Application: Exploration & Production
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
RiskAdvisory
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Energy Production and Pricing
Rudd Asset Management (RAM)
Product: @RISK
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Tioga Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Solar energy savings
Transelectrica
Product: @RISK
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
WEnergy Global
Product: @RISK
Application: Return on Investment

SEE ALSO:
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Energy Models

Environment
Air and Waste Management Association
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Aspinall & Associates
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
AECOM
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK)
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
Cornell University /
Lower Colorado River Authority

Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Management
Greenup Locks and Dam
Product: @RISK
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection
Halcrow Group Ltd /
UK Environment Agency

Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Management
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Kennecott Utah Copper
Product: @RISK
Application: Pollution Cleanup
MRAG Asia Pacific
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
NOAA Fisheries
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Purdue University
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Triangle Economic Research
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Pollution Cleanup
University of California, Berkeley
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
World Conservation Union
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Endangered Species Protection

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Cambridge University
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
In Agriculture:
World Aquatic Veterinary Medical Association (WAVMA)
Product: @RISK
Application: Helping aquatic farmers to make informed choices that reduce risk of disease in their animals without extensive and costly testing
Finance
Albert Fensterstock Associates
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Credit and debt risk analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Product: @RISK
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Cynametrix
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
FiduciaryVest
Product: @RISK
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
George Washington University
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
LStar Capital
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Merck
Product: @RISK
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Nighthawk Intelligence
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Performance Thinking & Technologies
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Hedge Fund management
Procter & Gamble
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Risqworx
Product: @RISK
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
RoseCap Investment Advisors
Product: @RISK
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
In Energy:
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
In Government:
Her Majesty's Prison Service
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
In Insurance/Reinsurance:
Society of Actuaries /
Casualty Actuary Society

Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Finance/Banking Models
Recently Added
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
University of Tasmania
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
CONTI-Group
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Amway
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Louisiana Department of Health
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Rusnano
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
MRAG Asia Pacific
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
DecisionTools Suite Cases
Aspinall & Associates
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK)
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Financial Risk Management in Agriculture
Captum Capital
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Application: rNPV of New Companies and Technologies
Cynametrix
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
DePaul University/Advanced Analytics LLC
Industry: Academia
Application: Sports Wagering
DNV GL SE
Industry: Shipping
Application: Risk and cost-benefit analysis to enhance the safety of ships and ship systems
Enex
Industry: Energy
Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
Linksbridge SPC
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Evaluating Efficacy of Public Health Initiatives
Logion BV
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Industry: Financing/Banking
Application: Portfolio Management
Major Utility in Eastern US
Industry: Utilities
Application: Load Forecasting
MegaFon
Industry: Telecommunications
Application: Enterprise Risk Management
Met-Mex Peñoles
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Design of Experiments
Nighthawk Intelligence
Industry: Finance
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Novelis
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Evaluation
PragmaRisk
Industry: Engineering, Construction
Application: Project cost and schedule risk analysis
Procter & Gamble
Industry: Academic
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Sark7
Industry: Sustainable energy (project consulting)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Industry: Finance
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Triangle Economic Research
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Unilever
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Product launch, capex, and many others
University of California San Diego School of Medicine
Industry: Healthcare / Pharmaceutical
Application: Public Health screening
University of Houston
Industry: Energy, Finance, Medical, and more
Application: Managerial Decision Making
University of Toronto
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
University of Pretoria
Industry: Sciences
Application: Viral Exposure
World Conservation Union
Industry: Environment
Application: Endangered Species Protection

SEE ALSO
In StatTools:
Pace University
Industry: Academic
Application: Operations Research

In @RISK:
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance


@RISK Cases
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Industry: Energy and Utilities
Application: Demand Forecasting
African Risk Capacity (ARC)
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Assessing Catastrophic Drought Risk
Air and Waste Management Association
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Industry: Energy
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
Amway
Services Limited

Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Analytics
Industry: Academic
Application: Health and food safety
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost Reduction
AgustaWestland
Industry: Aerospace
Application: New product development, feasibility studies, business initiatives
Antea Group
Industry: Environment
Application: Cost Justification of Water Recycling Systems
ARC of Yates
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Budget Forecasting
AECOM
Industry: Environment
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
BC Hydro
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Industry: Finance
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Bigen Africa
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Blade Energy
Industry: Energy
Application: Drilling Productivity
Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Industry: Academic
Application: Oil Exploration
Broadleaf Capital International
Industry: Mining
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Cambridge University
Industry: Academic
Application: Climate Change
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
Industry: Nuclear Energy / Energy Infrastructure
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Centre for Traffic
& Transport, Denmark

Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Planning
Cinergy
Industry: Energy
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
City of Edmonton / SMA Consulting
Industry: Transportation / Government
Application: Project management
Columbia University
Industry: Academic
Application: Energy and Public Policy
CONTI-Group
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Cornell University
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
CP Risk Solutions/
Illinois State University

Industry: Insurance
Application: Reinsurance Strategy
CP Risk Solutions/Illinois State University
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Factory Shutdown
Cranfield University
Industry: Energy
Application: Equipment Reliability
Cornell University/
Lower Colorado River Authority

Industry: Environment
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
Cornell University
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
Cummins Inc.
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Quality Analysis
Curtin University of Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Statistical analysis
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Industry: Government
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Deloitte
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Cell Captive Insurance
Deloitte AIS
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Financial Planning for Environmental Rehabilitation
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Industry: Energy
Application: ROI of Different Projects
DNV GL
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, SHE Risk Management, Operational Risk Management
ECN
Industry: Energy research organisation
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
ENGCOMP
Industry: Government/Defense
Application: Budgeting
Federal Highway Adminstration
Industry: Transportation
Application: Pavement Cost Analysis
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
FiduciaryVest
Industry: Finance
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
Fitness First
Industry: Energy / Utilities
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Fluor Corporation
Industry: Energy
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Fort McMurray Airport Authority (FMAA) / Revay and Associates Ltd.
Industry:Transportation
Application: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Futuremetrics
Industry: Energy
Application: Price Hedging
Gemeente Hoorn
Industry: Government
Application: Urban Planning
Graphic Era University - Dehradun
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Supply Chain Management
George Washington University
Industry: Finance
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
Greenup Locks and Dam
Industry: Energy
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Grupo ISA
Industry: Energy
Application: Investment Analysis
Halcrow
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Flood Protection
Halcrow Group Ltd /
UK Environment Agency

Industry: Environment
Application: Flood Management
Her Majesty's Prison Service
Industry: Government
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
Hospital Clinic Barcelona
Industry: Medical
Application: Blood Screening
Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost estimation
Illinois State University
Industry: Academic / Pharmaceutical
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Illinois State University
Industry: Academic
Application: Real Options and Finance
INCAE Business School
Industry: Academic
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Integral Consulting
Industry: Environment
Application: Mine Remediation
Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Energy Supply and Electricity Demand
JB Scherer Consulting Group LLC
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Future Net Income Forecasting
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University
Industry: Academic / Politics
Application: Election Forecasting
Kewpie Corporation and University of Tokyo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Food Safety
Katrina Disaster Response Center
Industry: Government
Application: Disaster Response Planning
Kennecott Utah Copper
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
KSU College of Veterinary Medicine
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Biosecurity to Avoid Disease Introduction
Kuwait Environment Public Authority
Industry: Government
Application: Air Quality
Larsen & Toubro Institute of
Project Management

Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Lockheed Martin / NASA
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule risk assessment
Louisiana Department of Health
Industry: Government
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
LStar Capital
Industry: Finance
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Merck
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Mining Engineering
MRAG Asia Pacific
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Murray & Roberts
Industry: Construction
Application: Evaluating enterprise risks using risk modelling for a cash flow based approach
National Grid UK
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Netconomy
Industry: Finance
Application: Budget Forecasting
New York City Department
of Health and Mental Hygiene

Industry: Medical
Application: Future Pandemic Planning
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
NOAA Fisheries
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Pantektor AB
Industry: Construction
Application: Fire Risk Mitigation
Pareto Solutions
Industry: Government
Application: Budget Projection
Patrick Engineering / MBTA
Industry: Construction
Application: Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
RD&I Consulting
Industry: Construction
Application: Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link
Pellegrino & Associates
Industry: Finance
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Petrobras
Industry: Energy
Application: Exploration & Production
Preformed Line Products
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Tolerance Stacking
ProjectPMO
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Post Danmark / PricewaterhouseCoopers
Industry: Government
Application: Insurance Premium Reduction
Purdue University
Industry: Environment, Government
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Red Leaf Resources
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
RisqWorx
Industry: Property
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Royal Veterinary College
Industry: Medical
Application: Disease Prevention
RoseCap
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
Rudd Asset Management (RAM)
Industry: Energy
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Scottsdale Insurance Company
Industry: Insurance
Application: Comparing commercial properties; RAROC
Shanghai Food and Drug Administration
Industry: Government
Application: Food safety, monitoring contaminants
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Industry: Energy
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Slovak Rail Company
Industry: Transportation
Application: Capital Investment
Society of Actuaries/
Casualty Actuary Society

Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Industry: Financial Forensics
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits.
Solvĕre
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Infrastructure
Swinburne University of Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Venture Capital Management
SzigmaSzervíz Ltd
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
Technical University of Denmark
Industry: Academic
Application: Transportation research
Tesla Consultants, Delta Utilities
Industry: Utilities
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Thales Group
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Market Feasibility
Tioga Energy
Industry: Energy
Application: Solar energy savings
Transelectrica
Industry: Power
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
Transae/Réseau Ferré de France
Industry: Transportation
Application: PPP rail project financing
Transnet
Industry: Transportation
Application: Freight Transport
Tulane University
Industry: Academic
Application: Food Safety
UK Ministry of Defence
Industry: Defence
Application: Project Management
University of Adelaide
Industry: Academic
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
University of Arkansas
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Analyzing Hybrid Varieties of Rice Crops
University of Buenos Aires
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agricultural Investment
University of California, Berkeley
Industry: Environment
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
University Melbourne
Industry: Academic / Agriculture
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
University of New Brunswick
Industry: Academic / Agriculture
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
University of Pennsylvania
Industry: Academic
Application: Organizational Dynamics
University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center
Industry: Health
Application: Evaluating kidney function for organ transplant
University of Tasmania
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
University of Tokyo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Food safety, detection of BSE
University Of Victoria
Industry: Academic
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
University of Witwatersrand
Industry: Academic
Application: Mining Engineering
US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA)
Industry: Government / Defense
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PragmaRisk uses the DecisionTools Suite to Determine and Monitor Contingency Funds for Construction Projects

Summary
PragmaRisk uses the DecisionTools Suite to assess the risks related to budgets and schedules overrunning for engineering and construction projects. Using @RISK and StatTools (both part of the DecisionTools Suite), PragmaRisk determines the contingency funds required to mitigate risks, based on budgets available and the risk appetite of the organisation.

Background
PragmaRisk is a risk management consultancy based in northern France, that provides services and support covering enterprise risk management, project risk management and quantitative risk assessment (QRA).

The company’s key focus is the engineering and construction sector, with clients including Technip, Alstom, Air Liquide, SBM, CB&I, Heurtey Petrochem and Prosernat, and it has delivered risk analysis, QRA and training projects across Europe, North America, the Middle-East and Asia.

PragmaRisk helps its clients to develop risk management best practices. This includes using Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the risks and uncertainties inherent in the execution of a project, and advising on contingency funding and budgets. It also carries out enterprise risk management (ERM) in the form of risk profiling, portfolio analysis and risk datamining (which helps organisations collect and structure data so that it benefits their ERM programme).

Using @RISK for contingency planning
The objective of contingency recommendation and monitoring is to account for the many uncertainties when planning budgets in order to determine the amount of contingency fund that should be added to the original budget, or to check whether what has been allowed to date is enough. PragmaRisk performs integrated cost and schedule QRA using @RISK (part of Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite) throughout the life of a project, which can run over several years.

Common and seemingly simple occurrences can have detrimental effects on the budget. For example, a construction project over-running means that equipment and manpower must be hired for longer, while costly schedule recovery plans (such as working at night) may be required and contractual damages for delay applied.

PragmaRisk’s models are able to bring together cost and schedule modelling in one environment, because @RISK bridges Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Project. It can also exploit ‘data exports’ from other project scheduling software.

Bruno Berroyer, the founder of PragmaRisk, is an experienced risk manager. He has used other Monte Carlo software, but prefers @RISK. He explains: “@RISK integrates really well with Microsoft Excel, which is a big advantage in terms of productivity when we are developing risk models. In addition, the software is integrated with the popular MS Project, which makes the modelling process quicker and smoother. Overall, Palisade’s DecisionTools is exactly that – a ‘toolbox’ that enables advanced risk analysis.”

Models account for the cost estimate / budget sensitivity aspects, but also the risk / opportunity events (contractual, sourcing, technical, etc) that can affect the execution plan of the project.

In line with guidelines from the Engineering and Construction Risk Institute, this approach can be illustrated as follows:

Data plays a key role in cost engineering and risk management
Safety and Environmental QRAs use publically available data that, because it is gathered from actual industrial accidents and hazards, is generally trusted. In contrast, the nature of cost engineering information makes data highly sensitive, and therefore usually confidential. This results in QRA inputs usually being determined solely through interviewing experts and project team members, which means they are often seen as subjective or biased. A key challenge for risk managers is to structure, consolidate and exploit the internal feedback data used for risk analysis so that the outcomes are trusted.

Inputs to the @RISK model
For most projects, PragmaRisk models the risks related to the budget and schedule overrunning, taking this integrated approach because cost and time are interdependent, and result in the most indirect costs.

Typical inputs to a Cost and Schedule Integrated QRA include:

  • Simplified Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS), showing how much is expected to be spent on each element of a project.
  • The sensitivity of key costs. For example, procurement of industrial equipment and materials depends on the market conditions for raw materials and prices can change by the time purchase orders are placed. When historical data is available, some probability density functions (that determine previous patterns) can be derived and exploited.
  • Simplified Schedule. This is the plan of a project’s key constituent tasks, showing those that are critical to the process, with sensitivity / range analysis of their durations and the way these are linked (ie the knock-on effect that each has on the other).
  • List of risks / opportunities that could impact the project. Ideally these are taken from a specific risk analysis performed on the project, combined with historical information of similar projects.
  • 'Risk mapping' ensures consistency and analyses the interdependencies between the inputs in order to ensure no important correlations are missed and to avoid ‘double dips’ and omissions. (A detailed screening of the risk register ensures issues have not been omitted. At the same time, to avoid uncontrolled cumulative effects, it must be factored in that several risks might impact the same individual cost item or scheduled task.)

@RISK outputs
Running a Cost and Schedule Integrated QRA using @RISK, PragmaRisk typically first identifies the probability of meeting the estimated budget if there is no contingency fund. This will depend on how the budget has been calculated, with factors such as estimator practices, company culture and the aggressiveness of assumptions influencing the figure:


From there it can be determined how much contingency budget is required to ensure the required level of ‘risk comfort’. This is expressed as the percentage likelihood of not overrunning the cost estimate. For the purpose of budget, when projects are in their early stages, most companies use percentile 50%. This is the median value, and is regarded as a realistic forecast that also avoids ‘killing’ projects before they have been studied sufficiently (Class 5 to Class 3 as per AACE cost estimate classification guidelines).


Source: AACE Cost Estimate Classification System – Recommended Guideline 18R-97

When the scope of work and risks are better defined and understood, percentiles 70% or 80% are traditionally used. By this stage, companies are committed to success and wish to secure their financial forecast. However, an engineering and construction contractor bidding for a new project must make its tender competitive, and might price aggressively (while ensuring this is consistent with its own ‘strategy’ and ‘risk appetite’).

A 'P80' rating indicates that there is an 80% chance of being on or below budget, while a P60 shows a good degree of confidence and a P50 is ambitious but realistic about the budget being met. Pricing aggressively, for example to win a contract for strategic reasons, might see a P30 figure.

The amount of contingency selected for the project will depend on its risk profile, but also on the contractor’s ’risk appetite. Using a Monte Carlo approach does not predict what will actually happen, but it applies reasoning under conditions of risk and uncertainty so that these two key aspects to be distinguished. However, because of the nature of risk this does not always produce satisfactory results. While some researchers try to remove ‘unknown risk events’ and ‘black swans’ via their QRA models, PragmaRisk focuses on the operational aspects of a project and the need to accept working with uncertainty. A project outcome that falls outside the contingency figures forecast is regarded as a learning opportunity to analyse whether a different approach should be taken in future.

Finally, the main uncertainties and risks affecting the budget of the project can be outlined. This allows mitigating action to be taken to reduce risks where possible. It also provides a complementary view to the usual ‘Top-Risks’ identified by qualitative risk analysis. This increased coherence between qualitative and quantitative risk management provides a wider view of the project and related risks.


Building project risk profiles with StatTools
Monte Carlo simulation is not the only method with which to determine and monitor contingency. In some circumstances, for example if time or the resources available are limited, or for projects undertaken by small to medium sized companies, a detailed 'risk register' and / or Monte Carlo risk analysis are usually not feasible because no dedicated resource or risk manager is available.

In these instances, an alternative, 'parametric' approach can easily and efficiently provide a risk profile for each new proposal or project using both qualitative and quantitative risk management information. PragmaRisk uses Palisade's StatTools (also part of the DecisionTools Suite) to analyse the historical data for portfolio projects and produce typical overruns / contingency consumption curves in line with a project’s specific risk profile.

Qualitative risk management uses a scoring mechanism to profile projects based on key risk drivers. These include the country where it is to be carried out and the context in which the client operates there, contractual and financial terms, complexity and technology challenges, the basis of the estimate / proposal preparation (for example, whether the contractor has had enough time to research constituent costs), the aggressiveness of cost and schedule assumptions, execution plan sourcing and subcontracting constraints.

From a quantitative perspective, the parametric approach provides a view that complements the traditional 'expert judgment' contingency recommendation method. This tailors typical contingency curves built from StatTools, using the accounting project risk profile and current context (ie: the risk drivers, physical progress, etc).

The completed risk profile highlights areas on which to focus and the risks to be mitigated.

StatTools also allows advanced analysis of feedback data, which enables the relationship between the qualitative risk profile of projects and their financial performance to be determined. Details examined include the extent of overruns as a function of a project's physical progress (ie: to flag accuracy issues), the overall effect of each risk driver and the correlation between them.

"Widely-used and well-maintained and supported"
"Widely used around the world, Palisade's software is well-maintained and supported, which means we can introduce risk analysis to our clients that have never undertaken QRA, or have had poor experiences in the past. Even for clients who use ERPs (enterprise resource planning software) rather than Excel, Palisade Custom Development can also deliver," Berroyer concludes.

Most useful software features:

  • Good integration with Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Project
  • Wide variety of input models available in @RISK
  • Wide variety report and graph formats to show outputs
  • Integration between statistical software (StatTools) and probabilistic software (@RISK)

Specific techniques used for quantitative analysis

  • Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk analysis: Excel, MSProject or exploiting Primavera schedule and risk analysis
  • Matching historical data with the ‘best-fit’ curve

Distributions used

  • For Cost Engineering applications, PragmaRisk usually uses bounded continuous functions. It chooses distributions that will allow it to better capture ‘expert’ views (from the engineering, procurement, construction, project management teams, etc) to ensure a close match between what is stated and what is incorporated into the model. (Experience shows that practitioners can, unintentionally, provide inputs that are biased).
  • As recommended by AACE (formerly the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering), PragmaRisk mainly uses double triangular distributions which are ‘4 points’ distribution (minimum, mode, maximum, probability not to overrun the mode). This gives more control than traditional triangular ‘3-points’ distributions, especially for very asymmetric ranges (ie: -2% / +10%).
  • When more ‘points’ are required, ‘Artist’ fitting functions are used to strictly capture expert views.
  • When structured feedback data is available, we use fitting functions to generate the most appropriate probability density functions.
  • On occasion a risk requires a specific approach, PragmaRisk selects one of the other continuous functions available from the extensive @RISK library.
  • PragmaRisk also uses ‘discrete’ function to model whether or not a risk event will occur


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