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Case Studies
Energy & Utilities
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Product: @RISK
Application: Demand Forecasting
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost Reduction
Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Product: @RISK
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
BC Hydro
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Analysis
Bigen Africa
Product: @RISK
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Blade Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Drilling Productivity
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
Product: @RISK
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Product: @RISK
Application: ROI of Different Projects
ECN
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
Enex
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project Planning
Fitness First
Product: @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Fluor Corporation
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Futuremetrics
Product: @RISK
Application: Price Hedging
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost estimation
IHS Energy Group
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Exploration, Drilling, and Production Analysis
Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy supply and Electricity Demand
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Metaproject
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Rescue Operations
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Product: @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Petrobras
Product: @RISK
Application: Exploration & Production
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
RiskAdvisory
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Energy Production and Pricing
Rudd Asset Management (RAM)
Product: @RISK
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Tioga Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Solar energy savings
Transelectrica
Product: @RISK
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
WEnergy Global
Product: @RISK
Application: Return on Investment

SEE ALSO:
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Energy Models

Recently Added
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
University of Tasmania
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
CONTI-Group
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Amway
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Louisiana Department of Health
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Rusnano
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
MRAG Asia Pacific
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
Academic
Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil Exploration
Bucknell University
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Technology Implementation
Cambridge University
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Columbia University
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy and Public Policy
Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Management
Curtin University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Statistical analysis
DePaul University/Advanced Analytics LLC
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Sports Wagering
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Options and Finance
INCAE Business School
Product: @RISK
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Election Forecasting
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Pace University
Product: StatTools, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Operations Research
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
Technical University of Denmark
Product: @RISK
Application: Transportation research
Tulane University
Product: @RISK
Application: Food Safety
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
University of Houston
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Managerial Decision Making
University of London Royal Veterinary College / EpiX Analytics
Product: @RISK
Application: Health and food safety
University Melbourne
Product: @RISK
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
University of New Brunswick
Product: @RISK
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
University of Pennsylvania
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Organizational Dynamics
University of Pretoria
Product: DecisionTools Suite, @RISK, TopRank
Application: Viral Exposure
University of Toronto
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Financial Management
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
University of Witwatersrand
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Virginia Commonwealth University
Product: @RISK
Application: Value at Risk Analysis

READ ALSO
In Agriculture:
Cornell University / Purdue University
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
University of Buenos Aires
Product: @RISK
Application: Agricultural Investment
University of Tokyo
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture
In Environment:
Cornell University /
Lower Colorado River Authority

Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
In Energy:
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
In Finance:
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
In Medical:
Royal Veterinary College
Product: @RISK
Application: Disease Prevention
Energy & Utilities
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Product: @RISK
Application: Demand Forecasting
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost Reduction
Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Product: @RISK
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
BC Hydro
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Analysis
Bigen Africa
Product: @RISK
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Blade Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Drilling Productivity
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
Product: @RISK
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Product: @RISK
Application: ROI of Different Projects
ECN
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
Enex
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project Planning
Fitness First
Product: @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Fluor Corporation
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Futuremetrics
Product: @RISK
Application: Price Hedging
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost estimation
IHS Energy Group
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Exploration, Drilling, and Production Analysis
Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy supply and Electricity Demand
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Metaproject
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Rescue Operations
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Product: @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Petrobras
Product: @RISK
Application: Exploration & Production
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
RiskAdvisory
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Energy Production and Pricing
Rudd Asset Management (RAM)
Product: @RISK
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Tioga Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Solar energy savings
Transelectrica
Product: @RISK
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
WEnergy Global
Product: @RISK
Application: Return on Investment

SEE ALSO:
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Energy Models

Environment
Air and Waste Management Association
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Aspinall & Associates
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
AECOM
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK)
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
Cornell University /
Lower Colorado River Authority

Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Management
Greenup Locks and Dam
Product: @RISK
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection
Halcrow Group Ltd /
UK Environment Agency

Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Management
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Kennecott Utah Copper
Product: @RISK
Application: Pollution Cleanup
MRAG Asia Pacific
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
NOAA Fisheries
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Purdue University
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Triangle Economic Research
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Pollution Cleanup
University of California, Berkeley
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
World Conservation Union
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Endangered Species Protection

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Cambridge University
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
In Agriculture:
World Aquatic Veterinary Medical Association (WAVMA)
Product: @RISK
Application: Helping aquatic farmers to make informed choices that reduce risk of disease in their animals without extensive and costly testing
Finance
Albert Fensterstock Associates
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Credit and debt risk analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Product: @RISK
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Cynametrix
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
FiduciaryVest
Product: @RISK
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
George Washington University
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
LStar Capital
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Merck
Product: @RISK
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Nighthawk Intelligence
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Performance Thinking & Technologies
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Hedge Fund management
Procter & Gamble
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Risqworx
Product: @RISK
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
RoseCap Investment Advisors
Product: @RISK
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
In Energy:
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
In Government:
Her Majesty's Prison Service
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
In Insurance/Reinsurance:
Society of Actuaries /
Casualty Actuary Society

Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Finance/Banking Models
Recently Added
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
University of Tasmania
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
CONTI-Group
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Amway
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Louisiana Department of Health
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Rusnano
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
MRAG Asia Pacific
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
DecisionTools Suite Cases
Aspinall & Associates
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK)
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Financial Risk Management in Agriculture
Captum Capital
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Application: rNPV of New Companies and Technologies
Cynametrix
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
DePaul University/Advanced Analytics LLC
Industry: Academia
Application: Sports Wagering
DNV GL SE
Industry: Shipping
Application: Risk and cost-benefit analysis to enhance the safety of ships and ship systems
Enex
Industry: Energy
Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
Linksbridge SPC
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Evaluating Efficacy of Public Health Initiatives
Logion BV
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Industry: Financing/Banking
Application: Portfolio Management
Major Utility in Eastern US
Industry: Utilities
Application: Load Forecasting
MegaFon
Industry: Telecommunications
Application: Enterprise Risk Management
Met-Mex Peñoles
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Design of Experiments
Nighthawk Intelligence
Industry: Finance
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Novelis
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Evaluation
PragmaRisk
Industry: Engineering, Construction
Application: Project cost and schedule risk analysis
Procter & Gamble
Industry: Academic
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Sark7
Industry: Sustainable energy (project consulting)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Industry: Finance
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Triangle Economic Research
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Unilever
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Product launch, capex, and many others
University of California San Diego School of Medicine
Industry: Healthcare / Pharmaceutical
Application: Public Health screening
University of Houston
Industry: Energy, Finance, Medical, and more
Application: Managerial Decision Making
University of Toronto
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
University of Pretoria
Industry: Sciences
Application: Viral Exposure
World Conservation Union
Industry: Environment
Application: Endangered Species Protection

SEE ALSO
In StatTools:
Pace University
Industry: Academic
Application: Operations Research

In @RISK:
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance


@RISK Cases
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Industry: Energy and Utilities
Application: Demand Forecasting
African Risk Capacity (ARC)
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Assessing Catastrophic Drought Risk
Air and Waste Management Association
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Industry: Energy
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
Amway
Services Limited

Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Analytics
Industry: Academic
Application: Health and food safety
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost Reduction
AgustaWestland
Industry: Aerospace
Application: New product development, feasibility studies, business initiatives
Antea Group
Industry: Environment
Application: Cost Justification of Water Recycling Systems
ARC of Yates
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Budget Forecasting
AECOM
Industry: Environment
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
BC Hydro
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Industry: Finance
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Bigen Africa
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Blade Energy
Industry: Energy
Application: Drilling Productivity
Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Industry: Academic
Application: Oil Exploration
Broadleaf Capital International
Industry: Mining
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Cambridge University
Industry: Academic
Application: Climate Change
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
Industry: Nuclear Energy / Energy Infrastructure
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Centre for Traffic
& Transport, Denmark

Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Planning
Cinergy
Industry: Energy
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
City of Edmonton / SMA Consulting
Industry: Transportation / Government
Application: Project management
Columbia University
Industry: Academic
Application: Energy and Public Policy
CONTI-Group
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Cornell University
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
CP Risk Solutions/
Illinois State University

Industry: Insurance
Application: Reinsurance Strategy
CP Risk Solutions/Illinois State University
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Factory Shutdown
Cranfield University
Industry: Energy
Application: Equipment Reliability
Cornell University/
Lower Colorado River Authority

Industry: Environment
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
Cornell University
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
Cummins Inc.
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Quality Analysis
Curtin University of Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Statistical analysis
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Industry: Government
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Deloitte
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Cell Captive Insurance
Deloitte AIS
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Financial Planning for Environmental Rehabilitation
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Industry: Energy
Application: ROI of Different Projects
DNV GL
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, SHE Risk Management, Operational Risk Management
ECN
Industry: Energy research organisation
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
ENGCOMP
Industry: Government/Defense
Application: Budgeting
Federal Highway Adminstration
Industry: Transportation
Application: Pavement Cost Analysis
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
FiduciaryVest
Industry: Finance
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
Fitness First
Industry: Energy / Utilities
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Fluor Corporation
Industry: Energy
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Fort McMurray Airport Authority (FMAA) / Revay and Associates Ltd.
Industry:Transportation
Application: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Futuremetrics
Industry: Energy
Application: Price Hedging
Gemeente Hoorn
Industry: Government
Application: Urban Planning
Graphic Era University - Dehradun
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Supply Chain Management
George Washington University
Industry: Finance
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
Greenup Locks and Dam
Industry: Energy
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Grupo ISA
Industry: Energy
Application: Investment Analysis
Halcrow
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Flood Protection
Halcrow Group Ltd /
UK Environment Agency

Industry: Environment
Application: Flood Management
Her Majesty's Prison Service
Industry: Government
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
Hospital Clinic Barcelona
Industry: Medical
Application: Blood Screening
Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost estimation
Illinois State University
Industry: Academic / Pharmaceutical
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Illinois State University
Industry: Academic
Application: Real Options and Finance
INCAE Business School
Industry: Academic
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Integral Consulting
Industry: Environment
Application: Mine Remediation
Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Energy Supply and Electricity Demand
JB Scherer Consulting Group LLC
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Future Net Income Forecasting
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University
Industry: Academic / Politics
Application: Election Forecasting
Kewpie Corporation and University of Tokyo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Food Safety
Katrina Disaster Response Center
Industry: Government
Application: Disaster Response Planning
Kennecott Utah Copper
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
KSU College of Veterinary Medicine
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Biosecurity to Avoid Disease Introduction
Kuwait Environment Public Authority
Industry: Government
Application: Air Quality
Larsen & Toubro Institute of
Project Management

Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Lockheed Martin / NASA
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule risk assessment
Louisiana Department of Health
Industry: Government
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
LStar Capital
Industry: Finance
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Merck
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Mining Engineering
MRAG Asia Pacific
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Murray & Roberts
Industry: Construction
Application: Evaluating enterprise risks using risk modelling for a cash flow based approach
National Grid UK
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Netconomy
Industry: Finance
Application: Budget Forecasting
New York City Department
of Health and Mental Hygiene

Industry: Medical
Application: Future Pandemic Planning
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
NOAA Fisheries
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Pantektor AB
Industry: Construction
Application: Fire Risk Mitigation
Pareto Solutions
Industry: Government
Application: Budget Projection
Patrick Engineering / MBTA
Industry: Construction
Application: Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
RD&I Consulting
Industry: Construction
Application: Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link
Pellegrino & Associates
Industry: Finance
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Petrobras
Industry: Energy
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Preformed Line Products
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ProjectPMO
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Post Danmark / PricewaterhouseCoopers
Industry: Government
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Purdue University
Industry: Environment, Government
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Red Leaf Resources
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Royal Veterinary College
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RoseCap
Industry: Finance/Banking
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Rudd Asset Management (RAM)
Industry: Energy
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Scottsdale Insurance Company
Industry: Insurance
Application: Comparing commercial properties; RAROC
Shanghai Food and Drug Administration
Industry: Government
Application: Food safety, monitoring contaminants
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Industry: Energy
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Slovak Rail Company
Industry: Transportation
Application: Capital Investment
Society of Actuaries/
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Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
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Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Industry: Financial Forensics
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits.
Solvĕre
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Infrastructure
Swinburne University of Technology
Industry: Academic
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SzigmaSzervíz Ltd
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
Technical University of Denmark
Industry: Academic
Application: Transportation research
Tesla Consultants, Delta Utilities
Industry: Utilities
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Thales Group
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Market Feasibility
Tioga Energy
Industry: Energy
Application: Solar energy savings
Transelectrica
Industry: Power
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
Transae/Réseau Ferré de France
Industry: Transportation
Application: PPP rail project financing
Transnet
Industry: Transportation
Application: Freight Transport
Tulane University
Industry: Academic
Application: Food Safety
UK Ministry of Defence
Industry: Defence
Application: Project Management
University of Adelaide
Industry: Academic
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
University of Arkansas
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Analyzing Hybrid Varieties of Rice Crops
University of Buenos Aires
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agricultural Investment
University of California, Berkeley
Industry: Environment
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
University Melbourne
Industry: Academic / Agriculture
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
University of New Brunswick
Industry: Academic / Agriculture
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
University of Pennsylvania
Industry: Academic
Application: Organizational Dynamics
University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center
Industry: Health
Application: Evaluating kidney function for organ transplant
University of Tasmania
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
University of Tokyo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Food safety, detection of BSE
University Of Victoria
Industry: Academic
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
University of Witwatersrand
Industry: Academic
Application: Mining Engineering
US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA)
Industry: Government / Defense
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk for Acquisitions
Value Management Strategies, Inc.
Industry: Government, Manufacturing
Application: Project management, cost estimation, event risk
Virginia Commonwealth University
Industry: Academic
Application: Value at Risk Analysis
Visual Reporting / Danish Government / Agency for Digitisation
Industry: Government, IT
Application: Risk assessment of major IT projects
WEnergy Global
Industry: Energy
Application: Return on Investment
Wright Homes
Industry: Construction
Application: Real Estate Development
World Aquatic Veterinary Medical Association (WAVMA)
Industry: Environment
Application: Aquaculture and biosecurity

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Example Models

In DecisionTools Suite:
Aspinall & Associates
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Enex
Industry: Energy
Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
Logion BV
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Industry: Financing/Banking
Application: Portfolio Management
Triangle Economic Research
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Procter & Gamble
Industry: Finance
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
World Conservation Union
Industry: Environment
Application: Endangered Species Protection

In @RISK Developer Kit:
London Underground / Istria
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Safety and Investments

In Evolver:
Mettler Consulting
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Enterprise Resource Planning


Petrobras Uses @RISK for E&P Analysis

Energy & Utilities
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Product: @RISK
Application: Demand Forecasting
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Product: @RISK
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Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Product: @RISK
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BC Hydro
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Analysis
Bigen Africa
Product: @RISK
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Blade Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Drilling Productivity
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
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Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Product: @RISK
Application: ROI of Different Projects
DNV GL
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, SHE Risk Management, Operational Risk Management
ECN
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Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
Enex
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Fitness First
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Fluor Corporation
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Futuremetrics
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Grupo ISA
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Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost estimation
IHS Energy Group
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Exploration, Drilling, and Production Analysis
Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
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Application: Energy supply and Electricity Demand
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Major Utility in Eastern US
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Application: Load Forecasting
Metaproject
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National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Product: @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Petrobras
Product: @RISK
Application: Exploration & Production
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
RiskAdvisory
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Application: Energy Production and Pricing
Rudd Asset Management (RAM)
Product: @RISK
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Tioga Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Solar energy savings
Transelectrica
Product: @RISK
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
WEnergy Global
Product: @RISK
Application: Return on Investment

SEE ALSO:
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Energy Models

The Challenge

In terms of its market value, Petrobras, the Brazilian oil producer and refinery operator, is the eighth largest global company in the world.  Its investments amount to more than $53 billion, and these include more than thirteen thousand productive oil and gas wells and 112 production platforms. 

Recently the company implemented a corporate-wide protocol for evaluating the economic risks associated with potential investments. Key risks of interest to Petrobras include those associated with: the production of oil and natural gas; the demand for derivatives; the prices of various commodities; the start dates for various operations; and changes in company capital (CAPEX) and operating (OPEX) expenditures. In performing analysis of these risks, Petrobras looks to several key indicators: expected NPV; the standard deviation of NPV to get a sense of the risk associated with the reward; the probability of a negative NPV, or of losing money; and the 95% Value at Risk (VAR) of the NPV, which is the minimum amount that Petrobras stands a 5% chance of losing.

Petrobras’s Progride System

To evaluate these risks, the Exploration and Production (E & P) section of Petrobras developed an in-house system for corporate-wide use called Progride.  Progride is based in Excel and uses customized C++ subroutines to perform it analyses.  The company uses it to model a variety of E & P applications, including: oil trends like prices and spreads; income taxes and royalties; depreciation, residual value, and economic life of a project; sensitivity analysis; and other internal economic indicators.  Progride also has risk analysis capabilities.

The system is capable of handling complexities such as multiple dependent projects (i.e. a base project plus complementary projects) within the same geographic site or “concession.”  A concession represents the right for Petrobras to drill in a specific area, and typically carries with it obligations of rent, tax, and royalty payments. Proglide can also manage anticipated future production projects as well as projects that reduce operating expenses (i.e. have “negative” future operating expense).

Conventional Progride Analysis

E & P analysts at Petrobras enter a variety of data to run a conventional Progride analysis, making assumptions for what is uncertain.  These data include: discount, inflation, tax and exchange rates; operation start dates; depreciation time; oil prices; production curves at the site for oil, natural gas, and water as well as water injection; capital expenditures such as drilling, surface installations, and collection; fixed and variable operating costs; and the cost of abandonment. 

From such an analysis, Progride returns the NPV, IRR, and project return time; the best date for project abandonment; and the financial exposure to the company.  However these results are based on best-guess point values in the input data that are assumed to be 100% certain.  Thus risk is not taken into account.

Risk Analysis in Progride

For a risk analysis in Progride, analysts must construct distributions to represent ranges of possibilities for key input variables.  These include: probabilistic production curves at the site for oil, natural gas, and water as well as water injection; unit production operational capacity; distributions for deviations in each CAPEX and OPEX component; and a distribution for the operation’s start date.

From this risk analysis, Progride provides the expected NPV of the project along with a histogram and measures of dispersion, or risk, around the expected NPV.  It also estimates the probability of a negative NPV, or of losing money on the project.

Limitations of Progride

As useful as Progride is to Petrobras, it has a number of significant limitations that led the company to look to @RISK.  For one, Progride’s risk analysis does not provide user access to the simulation data, preventing analysts from getting a closer look at different probabilistic scenarios.  Furthermore, Progride cannot effectively handle more complex projects, such as those done in partnership with other companies, projects that share common infrastructure, or integrated projects with multiple concessions.



Figure 1.

To illustrate the effect of these limitations, consider an integrated development project with production from two concessions, or specific sites.  Petrobras invests in a single shared production oil flow unit to handle both concessions – a shared CAPEX.  However, the company must treat each concession individually for Brazil’s National Petroleum Agency (ANP) for purposes such as area rent, royalties, and R&D.  See Figure 1.

In such a situation, risk analysis must be done on the integrated project as a whole.  There are risk factors shared by both of the concessions, such as prices and CAPEX.  And, there are independent risk factors, such as production and project start dates.  However, some costs should be treated individually for each concession, like area rent, royalties, and R&D.  Certain types of depreciation (on wells, for instance) should also be calculated for each concession as well.  Multiple-concession projects are fairly common, yet Progride cannot analyze them without running for thousands of hours – an impractical, and potentially inaccurate, prospect.



Figure 2.



Figure 3.



Figure 4.

The @RISK-Progride Solution

To address this problem, Petrobras E&P brought in @RISK.  Rafael Hartke, who heads up financial planning and risk management for Petrobras’s investment operations, has developed a method to integrate @RISK with Progride, all in Excel.  This system allows him to make an accurate and comprehensive assessment of a production platform with multiple concessions—and to save a huge amount of run time. 

For the multiple concession project described above, the company sets up three separate Progride analyses – one for concession A, one for concession B, and one for the integrated project A+B.  Then, analysts model probabilistic scenarios in @RISK for both the shared risk factors (prices, CAPEX deviations, e.g.) and the independent risks (production and start dates of operation, e.g.) for each concession.  A conventional Progride analysis is performed for each concession individually, using the probabilistic scenarios generated by @RISK as input data.  This analysis is performed while running @RISK by calling a macro that runs Progride during the @RISK simulation. The results of these two conventional concession analyses form the probabilistic scenario for each (e.g. production, revenue, CAPEX, OPEX, fiscal costs, and depreciation).  See Figures 2 and 3.

These individual concession results are then summed together to determine the probabilistic scenarios for the integrated project as a whole (A+B).  Next, a conventional Progride analysis is performed on the integrated project in @RISK using the combined probabilistic scenarios as entry data.  Desired risk indicators for the entire project are then calculated from the analysis results.  See Figure 4.

Easy as 3-2-1

The @RISK-Progride process can be summed up in 3 stages, 2 functions, and 1 macro. 

The 3 stages of the process are:

  1. Use @RISK to model and generate probabilistic scenarios for the shared and independent risk factors.
  2. Link the probabilistic scenarios generated in @RISK to the input data of each concession’s conventional Progride analysis using the Excel’s Offset and @RISK’s RiskCurrentIter functions.
  3. Execute each Prograde conventional analysis individually in @RISK, calling the macro which executes the Progride conventional analysis after each @RISK iteration.

The two primary functions used to accomplish the integration between @RISK and Progride are:

  1. RiskCurrentIter(): This is an @RISK Statistics function which returns the value of the current iteration of the simulation while running.
  2. Offset(cell ref, rows, columns): This is an Excel function which returns the value of a cell located a specified number of rows and columns from a particular cell reference.

Finally, there is only one macro needed in the process.  @RISK is set to run this Excel macro after each iteration recalculation during a simulation.  The macro simply runs Progride and contains the code: SendKeys "%PX", True

Benefits of the @RISK-Progride Solution

Petrobras’s integrated solution gives the company a number of valuable benefits.  First, it permits the separation of probabilistic scenarios for shared risk factors common to the projects being analyzed.  Second, the use of @RISK allows the analysis of projects undertaken with partners.  Similar to the above example, a separate Progride analysis is done for each partner, treating the fiscal aspects individually, but sharing the project risk factors.  Third, as we’ve just seen, this approach enables the analysis of integrated projects with multiple concessions, with a separate Progride analysis for each concession that treats the fiscal and depreciation aspects individually while sharing project risk factors.  Similarly, projects that share infrastructure with other, separate projects or concessions can now also be modeled in the same manner. Lastly, @RISK helps Petrobras reduce the calculation time for projections that used to take thousands of hours to a single day. If you multiply the saved hours by staff pay rates, you can get a pretty good picture of some huge cost savings.

» Integration of Corporate Systems and Risk Analysis with @RISK," Rafael Hartke, Petrobras. Delivered at the Palisade Conference in Brazil, November 2009
» @RISK
» Petrobras

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