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Case Studies
Finance
Albert Fensterstock Associates
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Credit and debt risk analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Product: @RISK
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Cynametrix
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
FiduciaryVest
Product: @RISK
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
George Washington University
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
LStar Capital
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Merck
Product: @RISK
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Nighthawk Intelligence
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Performance Thinking & Technologies
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Hedge Fund management
Procter & Gamble
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Risqworx
Product: @RISK
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
RoseCap Investment Advisors
Product: @RISK
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
In Energy:
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
In Government:
Her Majesty's Prison Service
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
In Insurance/Reinsurance:
Society of Actuaries /
Casualty Actuary Society

Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Finance/Banking Models
Recently Added
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
University of Tasmania
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
CONTI-Group
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Amway
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Louisiana Department of Health
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Rusnano
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
MRAG Asia Pacific
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
Academic
Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil Exploration
Bucknell University
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Technology Implementation
Cambridge University
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Columbia University
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy and Public Policy
Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Management
Curtin University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Statistical analysis
DePaul University/Advanced Analytics LLC
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Sports Wagering
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Options and Finance
INCAE Business School
Product: @RISK
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Election Forecasting
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Pace University
Product: StatTools, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Operations Research
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
Technical University of Denmark
Product: @RISK
Application: Transportation research
Tulane University
Product: @RISK
Application: Food Safety
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
University of Houston
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Managerial Decision Making
University of London Royal Veterinary College / EpiX Analytics
Product: @RISK
Application: Health and food safety
University Melbourne
Product: @RISK
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
University of New Brunswick
Product: @RISK
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
University of Pennsylvania
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Organizational Dynamics
University of Pretoria
Product: DecisionTools Suite, @RISK, TopRank
Application: Viral Exposure
University of Toronto
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Financial Management
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
University of Witwatersrand
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Virginia Commonwealth University
Product: @RISK
Application: Value at Risk Analysis

READ ALSO
In Agriculture:
Cornell University / Purdue University
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
University of Buenos Aires
Product: @RISK
Application: Agricultural Investment
University of Tokyo
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture
In Environment:
Cornell University /
Lower Colorado River Authority

Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
In Energy:
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
In Finance:
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
In Medical:
Royal Veterinary College
Product: @RISK
Application: Disease Prevention
Energy & Utilities
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Product: @RISK
Application: Demand Forecasting
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost Reduction
Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Product: @RISK
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
BC Hydro
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Analysis
Bigen Africa
Product: @RISK
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Blade Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Drilling Productivity
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
Product: @RISK
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Product: @RISK
Application: ROI of Different Projects
ECN
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
Enex
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project Planning
Fitness First
Product: @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Fluor Corporation
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Futuremetrics
Product: @RISK
Application: Price Hedging
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost estimation
IHS Energy Group
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Exploration, Drilling, and Production Analysis
Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy supply and Electricity Demand
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Metaproject
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Rescue Operations
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Product: @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Petrobras
Product: @RISK
Application: Exploration & Production
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
RiskAdvisory
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Energy Production and Pricing
Rudd Asset Management (RAM)
Product: @RISK
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Tioga Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Solar energy savings
Transelectrica
Product: @RISK
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
WEnergy Global
Product: @RISK
Application: Return on Investment

SEE ALSO:
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Energy Models

Environment
Air and Waste Management Association
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Aspinall & Associates
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
Australian Department of Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK)
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
Cornell University /
Lower Colorado River Authority

Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Management
Greenup Locks and Dam
Product: @RISK
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection
Halcrow Group Ltd /
UK Environment Agency

Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Management
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Kennecott Utah Copper
Product: @RISK
Application: Pollution Cleanup
MRAG Asia Pacific
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
NOAA Fisheries
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Purdue University
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Triangle Economic Research
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Pollution Cleanup
University of California, Berkeley
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
World Conservation Union
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Endangered Species Protection

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Cambridge University
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
In Agriculture:
World Aquatic Veterinary Medical Association (WAVMA)
Product: @RISK
Application: Helping aquatic farmers to make informed choices that reduce risk of disease in their animals without extensive and costly testing
Finance
Albert Fensterstock Associates
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Credit and debt risk analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Product: @RISK
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Cynametrix
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
FiduciaryVest
Product: @RISK
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
George Washington University
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
LStar Capital
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Merck
Product: @RISK
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Nighthawk Intelligence
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Performance Thinking & Technologies
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Hedge Fund management
Procter & Gamble
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Risqworx
Product: @RISK
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
RoseCap Investment Advisors
Product: @RISK
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
In Energy:
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
In Government:
Her Majesty's Prison Service
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
In Insurance/Reinsurance:
Society of Actuaries /
Casualty Actuary Society

Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Finance/Banking Models
Recently Added
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
University of Tasmania
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
CONTI-Group
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Amway
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Louisiana Department of Health
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Rusnano
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
MRAG Asia Pacific
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
DecisionTools Suite Cases
Aspinall & Associates
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK)
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Financial Risk Management in Agriculture
Captum Capital
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Application: rNPV of New Companies and Technologies
Cynametrix
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
DePaul University/Advanced Analytics LLC
Industry: Academia
Application: Sports Wagering
DNV GL SE
Industry: Shipping
Application: Risk and cost-benefit analysis to enhance the safety of ships and ship systems
Enex
Industry: Energy
Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
Linksbridge SPC
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Evaluating Efficacy of Public Health Initiatives
Logion BV
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Industry: Financing/Banking
Application: Portfolio Management
Major Utility in Eastern US
Industry: Utilities
Application: Load Forecasting
MegaFon
Industry: Telecommunications
Application: Enterprise Risk Management
Met-Mex Peñoles
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Design of Experiments
Nighthawk Intelligence
Industry: Finance
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Novelis
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Evaluation
PragmaRisk
Industry: Engineering, Construction
Application: Project cost and schedule risk analysis
Procter & Gamble
Industry: Academic
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Sark7
Industry: Sustainable energy (project consulting)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Industry: Finance
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Triangle Economic Research
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Unilever
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Product launch, capex, and many others
University of California San Diego School of Medicine
Industry: Healthcare / Pharmaceutical
Application: Public Health screening
University of Houston
Industry: Energy, Finance, Medical, and more
Application: Managerial Decision Making
University of Toronto
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
University of Pretoria
Industry: Sciences
Application: Viral Exposure
World Conservation Union
Industry: Environment
Application: Endangered Species Protection

SEE ALSO
In StatTools:
Pace University
Industry: Academic
Application: Operations Research

In @RISK:
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance


@RISK Cases
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Industry: Energy and Utilities
Application: Demand Forecasting
African Risk Capacity (ARC)
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Assessing Catastrophic Drought Risk
Air and Waste Management Association
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Industry: Energy
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
Amway
Services Limited

Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Analytics
Industry: Academic
Application: Health and food safety
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost Reduction
AgustaWestland
Industry: Aerospace
Application: New product development, feasibility studies, business initiatives
Antea Group
Industry: Environment
Application: Cost Justification of Water Recycling Systems
ARC of Yates
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Budget Forecasting
Australian Department of Climate Change
Industry: Environment
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
BC Hydro
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Industry: Finance
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Bigen Africa
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Blade Energy
Industry: Energy
Application: Drilling Productivity
Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Industry: Academic
Application: Oil Exploration
Broadleaf Capital International
Industry: Mining
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Cambridge University
Industry: Academic
Application: Climate Change
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
Industry: Nuclear Energy / Energy Infrastructure
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Centre for Traffic
& Transport, Denmark

Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Planning
Cinergy
Industry: Energy
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
City of Edmonton / SMA Consulting
Industry: Transportation / Government
Application: Project management
Columbia University
Industry: Academic
Application: Energy and Public Policy
CONTI-Group
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Cornell University
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
CP Risk Solutions/
Illinois State University

Industry: Insurance
Application: Reinsurance Strategy
CP Risk Solutions/Illinois State University
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Factory Shutdown
Cranfield University
Industry: Energy
Application: Equipment Reliability
Cornell University/
Lower Colorado River Authority

Industry: Environment
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
Cornell University
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
Cummins Inc.
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Quality Analysis
Curtin University of Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Statistical analysis
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Industry: Government
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Deloitte
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Cell Captive Insurance
Deloitte AIS
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Financial Planning for Environmental Rehabilitation
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Industry: Energy
Application: ROI of Different Projects
DNV GL
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, SHE Risk Management, Operational Risk Management
ECN
Industry: Energy research organisation
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
ENGCOMP
Industry: Government/Defense
Application: Budgeting
Federal Highway Adminstration
Industry: Transportation
Application: Pavement Cost Analysis
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
FiduciaryVest
Industry: Finance
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
Fitness First
Industry: Energy / Utilities
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Fluor Corporation
Industry: Energy
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Fort McMurray Airport Authority (FMAA) / Revay and Associates Ltd.
Industry:Transportation
Application: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Futuremetrics
Industry: Energy
Application: Price Hedging
Gemeente Hoorn
Industry: Government
Application: Urban Planning
Graphic Era University - Dehradun
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Supply Chain Management
George Washington University
Industry: Finance
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
Greenup Locks and Dam
Industry: Energy
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Grupo ISA
Industry: Energy
Application: Investment Analysis
Halcrow
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Flood Protection
Halcrow Group Ltd /
UK Environment Agency

Industry: Environment
Application: Flood Management
Her Majesty's Prison Service
Industry: Government
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
Hospital Clinic Barcelona
Industry: Medical
Application: Blood Screening
Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost estimation
Illinois State University
Industry: Academic / Pharmaceutical
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Illinois State University
Industry: Academic
Application: Real Options and Finance
INCAE Business School
Industry: Academic
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Integral Consulting
Industry: Environment
Application: Mine Remediation
Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Energy Supply and Electricity Demand
JB Scherer Consulting Group LLC
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Future Net Income Forecasting
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University
Industry: Academic / Politics
Application: Election Forecasting
Kewpie Corporation and University of Tokyo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Food Safety
Katrina Disaster Response Center
Industry: Government
Application: Disaster Response Planning
Kennecott Utah Copper
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
KSU College of Veterinary Medicine
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Biosecurity to Avoid Disease Introduction
Kuwait Environment Public Authority
Industry: Government
Application: Air Quality
Larsen & Toubro Institute of
Project Management

Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Lockheed Martin / NASA
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule risk assessment
Louisiana Department of Health
Industry: Government
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
LStar Capital
Industry: Finance
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Merck
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Mining Engineering
MRAG Asia Pacific
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Murray & Roberts
Industry: Construction
Application: Evaluating enterprise risks using risk modelling for a cash flow based approach
National Grid UK
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Netconomy
Industry: Finance
Application: Budget Forecasting
New York City Department
of Health and Mental Hygiene

Industry: Medical
Application: Future Pandemic Planning
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
NOAA Fisheries
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Pantektor AB
Industry: Construction
Application: Fire Risk Mitigation
Pareto Solutions
Industry: Government
Application: Budget Projection
Patrick Engineering
Industry: Construction
Application: Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
RD&I Consulting
Industry: Construction
Application: Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link
Pellegrino & Associates
Industry: Finance
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Petrobras
Industry: Energy
Application: Exploration & Production
Preformed Line Products
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Tolerance Stacking
ProjectPMO
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Post Danmark / PricewaterhouseCoopers
Industry: Government
Application: Insurance Premium Reduction
Purdue University
Industry: Environment, Government
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Red Leaf Resources
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
RisqWorx
Industry: Property
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Royal Veterinary College
Industry: Medical
Application: Disease Prevention
RoseCap
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
Rudd Asset Management (RAM)
Industry: Energy
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Scottsdale Insurance Company
Industry: Insurance
Application: Comparing commercial properties; RAROC
Shanghai Food and Drug Administration
Industry: Government
Application: Food safety, monitoring contaminants
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Industry: Energy
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Slovak Rail Company
Industry: Transportation
Application: Capital Investment
Society of Actuaries/
Casualty Actuary Society

Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Industry: Financial Forensics
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits.
Solvĕre
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Infrastructure
Swinburne University of Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Venture Capital Management
SzigmaSzervíz Ltd
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
Technical University of Denmark
Industry: Academic
Application: Transportation research
Tesla Consultants, Delta Utilities
Industry: Utilities
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Thales Group
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Market Feasibility
Tioga Energy
Industry: Energy
Application: Solar energy savings
Transelectrica
Industry: Power
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
Transae/Réseau Ferré de France
Industry: Transportation
Application: PPP rail project financing
Transnet
Industry: Transportation
Application: Freight Transport
Tulane University
Industry: Academic
Application: Food Safety
UK Ministry of Defence
Industry: Defence
Application: Project Management
University of Adelaide
Industry: Academic
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
University of Arkansas
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Analyzing Hybrid Varieties of Rice Crops
University of Buenos Aires
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agricultural Investment
University of California, Berkeley
Industry: Environment
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
University Melbourne
Industry: Academic / Agriculture
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
University of New Brunswick
Industry: Academic / Agriculture
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
University of Pennsylvania
Industry: Academic
Application: Organizational Dynamics
University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center
Industry: Health
Application: Evaluating kidney function for organ transplant
University of Tasmania
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
University of Tokyo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Food safety, detection of BSE
University Of Victoria
Industry: Academic
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
University of Witwatersrand
Industry: Academic
Application: Mining Engineering
US Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity (AMSAA)
Industry: Government / Defense
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk for Acquisitions
Value Management Strategies, Inc.
Industry: Government, Manufacturing
Application: Project management, cost estimation, event risk
Virginia Commonwealth University
Industry: Academic
Application: Value at Risk Analysis
Visual Reporting / Danish Government / Agency for Digitisation
Industry: Government, IT
Application: Risk assessment of major IT projects
WEnergy Global
Industry: Energy
Application: Return on Investment
Wright Homes
Industry: Construction
Application: Real Estate Development
World Aquatic Veterinary Medical Association (WAVMA)
Industry: Environment
Application: Aquaculture and biosecurity

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Example Models

In DecisionTools Suite:
Aspinall & Associates
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Enex
Industry: Energy
Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
Logion BV
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Industry: Financing/Banking
Application: Portfolio Management
Triangle Economic Research
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Procter & Gamble
Industry: Finance
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
World Conservation Union
Industry: Environment
Application: Endangered Species Protection

In @RISK Developer Kit:
London Underground / Istria
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Safety and Investments

In Evolver:
Mettler Consulting
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Enterprise Resource Planning


From Boardroom to Courtroom: Using @RISK to Value Early-Stage Companies

Finance
Albert Fensterstock Associates
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Credit and debt risk analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Product: @RISK
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Cynametrix
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
FiduciaryVest
Product: @RISK
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
George Washington University
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
LStar Capital
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Merck
Product: @RISK
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Nighthawk Intelligence
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Performance Thinking & Technologies
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Hedge Fund management
Procter & Gamble
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Risqworx
Product: @RISK
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
RoseCap Investment Advisors
Product: @RISK
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
In Energy:
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
In Government:
Her Majesty's Prison Service
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
In Insurance/Reinsurance:
Society of Actuaries /
Casualty Actuary Society

Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Finance/Banking Models

Pellegrino & Associates, LLC is a boutique valuation company with a specialty in software and intellectual property (IP) valuations that include patents, copyrights, trademarks and trade secrets. The firm focuses on building credible valuations for a wide range of companies, from privately-owned businesses to Fortune 500 organizations. These valuations are used for a variety of purposes including internal budgeting and planning, property tax reporting, raising investment capital and economic feasibility analysis.

One of the challenges faced by early-stage companies with no assets other than untested technology is how to determine a fair market value for their intellectual property (IP) should they face a civil lawsuit. Pellegrino & Associates uses @RISK risk analysis software to calculate fair IP values, based on discounted future incomes. The method is detailed in the book BVR’s Guide to Intellectual Property Valuation, by Michael Pellegrino, a leading expert in IP valuation.

Intellectual property (IP) makes a huge contribution to local, national and global economies. Businesses rely on the enforcement of their IP, e.g. patents, trademarks and copyrights, while consumers use IP to ensure they are purchasing safe, guaranteed products. This is why it is important for organizations to understand the value and protect intellectual property.

Determining the value of IP is a significant challenge, especially for early-stage companies with no IP assets other than untested technology. Many variables need to be considered, including estimated market share and adoption, taxes, risks, regulation, and IP protections, operating budgets and capital requirements. One of the key problems relating to the uncertainty of these variables: If a company faces a civil lawsuit, how should the financial value for the IP be determined so that any awarded damages are equitable, regardless of whether the IP proves to be highly valuable or fails to be adopted in the future.

According to Michael Pellegrino, owner of Pellegrino & Associates and chair of the Licensing Executives Society (LES) IP Valuation Standards Committee, "Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of all IP valuation, as there are many unknown drivers and it's impossible for anyone to forecast what will happen in the future and their related interdependencies." These drivers can include taxes, timing, margins, quantities sold, staffing costs, revenue per unit, risks, market adoption rates, and development timelines. With so many uncertainties, IP experts either don't model at all, or tend to rely on three main ways to create valuations: model discrete outcomes on certain value drivers (e.g. best case, worst case, expected case), use of functional math models (e.g. Black-Scholes), and use of Monte Carlo simulation.

Pellegrino & Associates uses Palisade's @RISK software to run Monte Carlo simulations for their risk analysis. "We've used it on more than 300 client engagements in every major sector of the economy, from software and semiconductors to chemical coatings and consumer electronics," said Pellegrino. "We apply it to a range of damages models including the assessed value of a product, reasonable royalty payments, total cost of product reproduction, as well as the potential for lost profits – and in all the cases that went to court where we used Monte Carlo simulation, our results were accepted every time."

Building the Model

In one civil case between the founders of a small, private company that specialized in lubrication technologies for pharmaceutical containers, such as prefilled syringes and insulin pumps, Pellegrino & Associates needed to determine the value of two different products. One product was a syringe lubricant, which was based on seven patents and several pending patents; the other product was a scratch-resistant coating, which was based on two patents and also had several pending patents. Neither product was generating significant revenue, but needed to be valued for potential compensatory damages in a court case.

While both products tested well in the lab, they were very early stage and not yet proven in the market. This made it difficult to forecast the future market response or easily assign a credible value. An additional level of complexity was generated by the parties involved in the court case. The plaintiffs wanted the valuation as high as possible, while the defendants wanted it as low as possible. This meant that at least one of the parties would be unhappy with the valuation, so the model would need to be easy to understand and defend.

The Pellegrino team built a valuation model based on a total of 35 simulated inputs: 27 inputs for the syringe lubricant and 8 inputs for the scratch-resistant coating. "With the possibility of each input having up to 10 potential values, we were looking at 1035 possible value permutations – that's a pretty big number," explained Pellegrino. "What made the situation even more difficult was the fact that we didn’t have much discrete, numerical data. It was mostly continuous, which meant the inputs could have had hundreds of possible values." The model would have been unmanageable without computer assistance, so the Pellegrino team used Palisade's risk analysis software to build an integrated decision tree and discounted free cash flow model.

The team used Palisade's @RISK software to build statistical models based on simulation algorithms and Monte Carlo simulations, which calculated fair value based on discounted future income. While neither party in the civil court case contested the valuation model – or the simulated inputs – Pellegrino & Associates was required to explain and defend the variances, distributions, and final outputs. For this case, they needed to distill these complex statistical concepts into common analogies and easy-to-understand visual representations. "While Monte Carlo simulation can be complicated, how you present it doesn’t have to be," said Pellegrino. "In addition to using life insurance actuaries as an analogy, we also used @RISK to create graphics that helped us easily illustrate the variances and final outputs."

Pellegrino & Associates primarily used discrete distributions to show the probability of occurrence of discrete random variables, and triangular distributions to determine the minimum, maximum and peak probability of continuous variables. Of the 35 different inputs that were measured, only 4 had great statistical significance: per-syringe royalty rates, discount rate variance, the first two companies that might license the patents, and when these companies might license the patents.

In the end, the court felt that Pellegrino & Associates' analysis was competent and ruled that their valuation report set forth clearly and in layman's terms the factors, limitations, assumptions, and methodologies used to determine fair value.

"With @RISK, we were able to increase confidence in our conclusion by presenting clear and convincing evidence that was easy to defend. I use @RISK for every court case," concluded Pellegrino.

» @RISK
» Pellegrino & Associates
» BVR's Guide to Intellectual Property Valuation

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