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Case Studies
Academic
Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil Exploration
Bucknell University
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Technology Implementation
Cambridge University
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Columbia University
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy and Public Policy
Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Management
Curtin University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Statistical analysis
DePaul University/Advanced Analytics LLC
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Sports Wagering
FIFA World Cup 2018
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling outcomes in the 2018 FIFA World Cup
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Options and Finance
INCAE Business School
Product: @RISK
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Election Forecasting
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Pace University
Product: StatTools, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Operations Research
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
Technical University of Denmark
Product: @RISK
Application: Transportation research
Tulane University
Product: @RISK
Application: Food Safety
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
University of Houston
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Managerial Decision Making
University of London Royal Veterinary College / EpiX Analytics
Product: @RISK
Application: Health and food safety
University Melbourne
Product: @RISK
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
University of New Brunswick
Product: @RISK
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
University of Pennsylvania
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Organizational Dynamics
University of Pretoria
Product: DecisionTools Suite, @RISK, TopRank
Application: Viral Exposure
University of Toronto
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Financial Management
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
University of Witwatersrand
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Virginia Commonwealth University
Product: @RISK
Application: Value at Risk Analysis

READ ALSO
In Agriculture:
Cornell University / Purdue University
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
University of Buenos Aires
Product: @RISK
Application: Agricultural Investment
University of Tokyo
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture
In Environment:
Cornell University /
Lower Colorado River Authority

Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
In Energy:
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
In Finance:
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
In Medical:
Royal Veterinary College
Product: @RISK
Application: Disease Prevention
Recently Added
FIFA World Cup 2018
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling outcomes in the 2018 FIFA World Cup
Industry: Academic
Aquenta
Product: @RISK
Application: Schedule and cost estimation for major infrastructure projects
Industry: Construction
Zachry Industrial, Inc.
Product: @RISK
Application: Early Identification of Equipment Failure Rate Change
Industry: Construction/Engineering
EpiX Analytics
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk management and analytical process
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Project and Portfolio Value Creation
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Using Decision Trees in Biopharmaceutical investment decision-making
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceuticals
HealthCare Appraisers Inc.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling Business Valuation Scenarios for a Surgery Center
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Ascendion Law
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Estimating Outcomes of Litigation
Industry: Legal
Stronger Christchurch Infrastructure Rebuild Team (SCIRT)
Product: @RISK
Application: Infrastructure Cost Estimation
Industry: Construction
Throughput Professionals
Product: @RISK
Application: Refinery Optimization
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Johns Hopkins, Mayo Clinic, and Interdisciplinary Solutions
Product: @RISK
Application: Pandemic Preparedness
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance/Banking
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
University of Tasmania
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
CONTI-Group
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Amway
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Louisiana Department of Health
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Rusnano
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
MRAG Asia Pacific
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
Academic
Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil Exploration
Bucknell University
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Technology Implementation
Cambridge University
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Columbia University
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy and Public Policy
Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Management
Curtin University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Statistical analysis
DePaul University/Advanced Analytics LLC
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Sports Wagering
FIFA World Cup 2018
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling outcomes in the 2018 FIFA World Cup
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Options and Finance
INCAE Business School
Product: @RISK
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University
Product: @RISK
Application: Election Forecasting
Missouri University of Science and Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Pace University
Product: StatTools, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Operations Research
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
Technical University of Denmark
Product: @RISK
Application: Transportation research
Tulane University
Product: @RISK
Application: Food Safety
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
University of Houston
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Managerial Decision Making
University of London Royal Veterinary College / EpiX Analytics
Product: @RISK
Application: Health and food safety
University Melbourne
Product: @RISK
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
University of New Brunswick
Product: @RISK
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
University of Pennsylvania
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Organizational Dynamics
University of Pretoria
Product: DecisionTools Suite, @RISK, TopRank
Application: Viral Exposure
University of Toronto
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Financial Management
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
University of Witwatersrand
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Virginia Commonwealth University
Product: @RISK
Application: Value at Risk Analysis

READ ALSO
In Agriculture:
Cornell University / Purdue University
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
University of Buenos Aires
Product: @RISK
Application: Agricultural Investment
University of Tokyo
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture
In Environment:
Cornell University /
Lower Colorado River Authority

Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
In Energy:
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
In Finance:
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
In Medical:
Royal Veterinary College
Product: @RISK
Application: Disease Prevention
Energy & Utilities
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Product: @RISK
Application: Demand Forecasting
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost Reduction
Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Product: @RISK
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
BC Hydro
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Analysis
Bigen Africa
Product: @RISK
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Blade Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Drilling Productivity
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
Product: @RISK
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Cranfield University
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Product: @RISK
Application: ROI of Different Projects
ECN
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
Enex
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project Planning
EpiX Analytics
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk management and analytical process
Fitness First
Product: @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Fluor Corporation
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Futuremetrics
Product: @RISK
Application: Price Hedging
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost estimation
IHS Energy Group
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Exploration, Drilling, and Production Analysis
Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy supply and Electricity Demand
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Metaproject
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Rescue Operations
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Product: @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Petrobras
Product: @RISK
Application: Exploration & Production
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
RiskAdvisory
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Energy Production and Pricing
Rudd Asset Management (RAM)
Product: @RISK
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Throughput Professionals
Product: @RISK
Application: Refinery Optimization
Tioga Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Solar energy savings
Transelectrica
Product: @RISK
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
WEnergy Global
Product: @RISK
Application: Return on Investment

SEE ALSO:
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Energy Models

Environment
Air and Waste Management Association
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Aspinall & Associates
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
AECOM
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK)
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
Cornell University /
Lower Colorado River Authority

Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Management
Greenup Locks and Dam
Product: @RISK
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Halcrow
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection
Halcrow Group Ltd /
UK Environment Agency

Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Management
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Kennecott Utah Copper
Product: @RISK
Application: Pollution Cleanup
MRAG Asia Pacific
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
NOAA Fisheries
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Purdue University
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Triangle Economic Research
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Pollution Cleanup
University of California, Berkeley
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
World Conservation Union
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Endangered Species Protection

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Cambridge University
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Sark7
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
In Agriculture:
World Aquatic Veterinary Medical Association (WAVMA)
Product: @RISK
Application: Helping aquatic farmers to make informed choices that reduce risk of disease in their animals without extensive and costly testing
Finance
Albert Fensterstock Associates
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Credit and debt risk analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Product: @RISK
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Cynametrix
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
FiduciaryVest
Product: @RISK
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
George Washington University
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
LStar Capital
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Merck
Product: @RISK
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Nighthawk Intelligence
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Performance Thinking & Technologies
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Hedge Fund management
Procter & Gamble
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Risqworx
Product: @RISK
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
RoseCap Investment Advisors
Product: @RISK
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment

READ ALSO
In Academic:
Swinburne University of Technology
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
In Energy:
Cinergy
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Grupo ISA
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
In Government:
Her Majesty's Prison Service
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
In Insurance/Reinsurance:
Society of Actuaries /
Casualty Actuary Society

Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning

SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Finance/Banking Models
Medical
Biswas X-Ray and Scan Centre
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Enhancement of MRIs
Biswas X-Ray and Scan Centre
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Enhancement of MRIs
Captum Capital
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: rNPV of New Companies and Technologies
HealthCare Appraisers Inc.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling Business Valuation Scenarios for a Surgery Center
Johns Hopkins, Mayo Clinic, and Interdisciplinary Solutions
Product: @RISK
Application: Pandemic Preparedness
Katharinenhospital Stuttgart
Institute for Pathology

Product: NeuralTools
Application: Medical Diagnosis
New York City Department
of Health and Mental Hygiene

Product: @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Application: Future Pandemic Planning
Richmond Hospital System
Product: NeuralTools, StatTools
Application: Forecasting Patient Load
Royal Veterinary College
Product: @RISK
Application: Disease Prevention
University of California San Diego School of Medicine
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Public Health screening
University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating kidney function for organ transplant

READ ALSO
In Finance:
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Planning
Merck
Product: @RISK, BestFit
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Project and Portfolio Value Creation
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Using Decision Trees in Biopharmaceutical investment decision-making
In Government:
Pareto Solutions
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Projection
Recently Added
FIFA World Cup 2018
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling outcomes in the 2018 FIFA World Cup
Industry: Academic
Aquenta
Product: @RISK
Application: Schedule and cost estimation for major infrastructure projects
Industry: Construction
Zachry Industrial, Inc.
Product: @RISK
Application: Early Identification of Equipment Failure Rate Change
Industry: Construction/Engineering
EpiX Analytics
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk management and analytical process
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Project and Portfolio Value Creation
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Using Decision Trees in Biopharmaceutical investment decision-making
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceuticals
HealthCare Appraisers Inc.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling Business Valuation Scenarios for a Surgery Center
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Ascendion Law
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Estimating Outcomes of Litigation
Industry: Legal
Stronger Christchurch Infrastructure Rebuild Team (SCIRT)
Product: @RISK
Application: Infrastructure Cost Estimation
Industry: Construction
Throughput Professionals
Product: @RISK
Application: Refinery Optimization
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Johns Hopkins, Mayo Clinic, and Interdisciplinary Solutions
Product: @RISK
Application: Pandemic Preparedness
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Kinder Morgan / Riskcore Ltd.
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance/Banking
Red Leaf Resources
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Sinopec Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd (SEG)
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Tesla Consultants
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
University of Adelaide
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
University of Tasmania
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
National Grid UK
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Solis Financial Forensics LLC
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
CONTI-Group
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Major Utility in Eastern US
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Amway
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
L.E. Peabody & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Louisiana Department of Health
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Pellegrino & Associates
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Integral Consulting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
University Of Victoria
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Rusnano
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
MRAG Asia Pacific
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Netconomy
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
DecisionTools Suite Cases
Aspinall & Associates
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK)
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Financial Risk Management in Agriculture
Captum Capital
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Application: rNPV of New Companies and Technologies
Cynametrix
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
DePaul University/Advanced Analytics LLC
Industry: Academia
Application: Sports Wagering
DNV GL SE
Industry: Shipping
Application: Risk and cost-benefit analysis to enhance the safety of ships and ship systems
Enex
Industry: Energy
Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
Linksbridge SPC
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Evaluating Efficacy of Public Health Initiatives
Logion BV
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
London Business School /
Novartis Pharmaceutical

Industry: Financing/Banking
Application: Portfolio Management
Major Utility in Eastern US
Industry: Utilities
Application: Load Forecasting
MegaFon
Industry: Telecommunications
Application: Enterprise Risk Management
Met-Mex Peñoles
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Design of Experiments
Nighthawk Intelligence
Industry: Finance
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Novelis
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Evaluation
PragmaRisk
Industry: Engineering, Construction
Application: Project cost and schedule risk analysis
Procter & Gamble
Industry: Academic
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Rusnano
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Sark7
Industry: Sustainable energy (project consulting)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Industry: Finance
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Triangle Economic Research
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Unilever
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Product launch, capex, and many others
University of California San Diego School of Medicine
Industry: Healthcare / Pharmaceutical
Application: Public Health screening
University of Houston
Industry: Energy, Finance, Medical, and more
Application: Managerial Decision Making
University of Toronto
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
University of Pretoria
Industry: Sciences
Application: Viral Exposure
World Conservation Union
Industry: Environment
Application: Endangered Species Protection

SEE ALSO
In StatTools:
Pace University
Industry: Academic
Application: Operations Research

In @RISK:
Northern Indiana
Public Service Company

Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance


@RISK Cases
Abu Dhabi Water &
Electricity Company

Industry: Energy and Utilities
Application: Demand Forecasting
African Risk Capacity (ARC)
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Assessing Catastrophic Drought Risk
Air and Waste Management Association
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Alesco Risk Management
Services Limited

Industry: Energy
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
Amway
Services Limited

Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Analytics
Industry: Academic
Application: Health and food safety
Águas do Douro e Paiva
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost Reduction
AgustaWestland
Industry: Aerospace
Application: New product development, feasibility studies, business initiatives
Antea Group
Industry: Environment
Application: Cost Justification of Water Recycling Systems
ARC of Yates
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Budget Forecasting
AECOM
Industry: Environment
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
Aquenta
Industry: Construction
Application: Schedule and cost estimation for major infrastructure projects
BC Hydro
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Analysis
Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla
Industry: Finance
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Bigen Africa
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Blade Energy
Industry: Energy
Application: Drilling Productivity
Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Industry: Academic
Application: Oil Exploration
Broadleaf Capital International
Industry: Mining
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Cambridge University
Industry: Academic
Application: Climate Change
Carnegie Mellon University / Pittsburgh Technical
Industry: Nuclear Energy / Energy Infrastructure
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Centre for Traffic
& Transport, Denmark

Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Planning
Cinergy
Industry: Energy
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
City of Edmonton / SMA Consulting
Industry: Transportation / Government
Application: Project management
Columbia University
Industry: Academic
Application: Energy and Public Policy
CONTI-Group
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Cornell University
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
CP Risk Solutions/
Illinois State University

Industry: Insurance
Application: Reinsurance Strategy
CP Risk Solutions/Illinois State University
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Factory Shutdown
Cranfield University
Industry: Energy
Application: Equipment Reliability
Cornell University/
Lower Colorado River Authority

Industry: Environment
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
Cornell University
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
Cummins Inc.
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Quality Analysis
Curtin University of Technology
Industry: Academic
Application: Statistical analysis
Department of Energy and Climate Change
Industry: Government
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Deloitte
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Cell Captive Insurance
Deloitte AIS
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Financial Planning for Environmental Rehabilitation
Det Norske Veritas (DNV)
Industry: Energy
Application: ROI of Different Projects
DNV GL
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, SHE Risk Management, Operational Risk Management
ECN
Industry: Energy research organisation
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
ENGCOMP
Industry: Government/Defense
Application: Budgeting
EpiX Analytics
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Risk management and analytical process
Federal Highway Adminstration
Industry: Transportation
Application: Pavement Cost Analysis
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indiana
Industry: Finance
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FiduciaryVest
Industry: Finance
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
FIFA World Cup 2018
Industry: Academic
Application: Modeling outcomes in the 2018 FIFA World Cup
Fitness First
Industry: Energy / Utilities
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Fluor Corporation
Industry: Energy
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Fort McMurray Airport Authority (FMAA) / Revay and Associates Ltd.
Industry:Transportation
Application: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Futuremetrics
Industry: Energy
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Gemeente Hoorn
Industry: Government
Application: Urban Planning
Graphic Era University - Dehradun
Industry: Manufacturing
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George Washington University
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Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
Greenup Locks and Dam
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Grupo ISA
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Halcrow
Industry: Energy & Utilities
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HealthCare Appraisers Inc.
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceuticals
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UK Environment Agency

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Her Majesty's Prison Service
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Hospital Clinic Barcelona
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Hydroelectric Power in Colombia
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Illinois State University
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INCAE Business School
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Integral Consulting
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Integrating Renewables with Electricity Storage
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» Example Models

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Industry: Environment
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Enex
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Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
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Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
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Probability Outcomes in the 2018 FIFA World Cup

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FIFA World Cup 2018
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Summary
An Australian university professor and veteran oil and gas industry analyst and decision-making expert garnered some global media attention prior to the FIFA World Cup when he used his expertise with @RISK to build a model to simulate outcomes for the popular, month-long international tournament that kicked off in Moscow, Russia June 14.

Background
Steve Begg has spent most of his career dealing with uncertainty in the oil and gas business, initially with BP and Halliburton and lately on the teaching side of the industry in his adopted home of Australia. But the native of Northern Ireland recently took a temporary, and arguably more fun, detour when he combined his lifelong passion for soccer and his expertise with Monte Carlo simulation to build an @RISK-powered model to generate outcomes for the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

A professor and former Head of the University of Adelaide's School of Petroleum whose research and teaching focus on decision-making under uncertainty and the psychological and judgmental factors that influence it, Begg created a probability model to estimate the chances of particular outcomes occurring during the tournament. Though the difference between the uncertainty in a team’s playing ability and their chance of winning is perhaps a subtle one to many, it is one of the things that make Begg’s exercise unique.

“The difficulty is in knowing how to propagate uncertainty in something we can assess, the teams’ playing ability, through to an assessment of their chance of advancing to various stages of the tournament, ultimately to the final. This is what Monte Carlo simulation enables us to do.”

In the end, the model calculated the highest probabilities of winning for world number two-ranked Brazil, with 15.4%, and not number one-ranked and defending champion Germany (13.32%). Of the top 10 teams ranked by Begg’s model, only Germany (part of Group F, the consensus “Group of Death’) and tenth-ranked Poland failed to advance to the Round of 16.

An "Uncertain" Approach
“The outcomes of many decisions we make are uncertain because of lack of information and things outside of our control,” Begg says. “Uncertainty is crucial in predicting the chance of an oil or gas field being economic. In the World Cup, it determines the many ways the whole tournament might play out – there are nearly 430 million possible outcomes of the Group Stage alone. What makes it so hard to predict is not just uncertainty in how a team will perform in general, but random factors that can occur in each match.”

Begg’s approach was to model enough possibilities to estimate the chance of any particular team progressing. FIFA world rankings, essentially determined through a relatively simple system in which points are earned through victories on the pitch, are but one part of predicting a team’s success in a tournament, and a rather simplistic one at that. Due to the complex World Cup tournament format, which places the qualifying teams in eight groups of varying difficulty, with prescribed rules as to how the winners progress, Begg constructed a sophisticated model that incorporated both the known (tournament structure) and the unknown or uncertain (team performances). The latter included what he called “tournament form” (how well a team will play, on average, over the course of the finals) and “match form” (the extent to which the team plays better or worse than its tournament form in any given match).

PERT Distribution
For each of his 100,000 simulations, Begg used the PERT probability distribution function (PDF) to describe uncertainty in tournament form. “The PERT distribution is easy to use because it just requires three numbers, a minimum, maximum and most likely,” Begg says.

The “most likely” value was derived from FIFA rankings over the past four years, supplemented by Begg’s own knowledge of international soccer to account for factors like recent “friendlies” played. The biggest change he made was to give Russia a higher score than its FIFA ranking suggested, due to its home advantage. (With a victory over heavily favored Spain in a penalty kicks shootout July 1, Russia moved on to the quarterfinals, which the model gave it a 10.9% probability of doing).

The PERT minimum and maximum values were assigned based on the most likely values. For lower-ranking teams, Begg skewed the distribution upwards based on the theory that they have a greater chance of playing better than their rankings suggest (as it turned out for Russia and Japan) than playing worse. The higher-ranking teams had the reverse – a greater chance of playing worse than their ranking (as it turned out for Germany and Argentina) than outperforming them. Middle ranked teams had a more symmetrical distribution.

For each match, each team’s “match form” was drawn from a truncated normal Probability Distribution Function (PDF) whose “mean” was that simulation’s tournament form, with a standard deviation of 1/10th the mean.

Begg then assigned the total number of goals scored in a match from a discrete PDF, derived from the number of goals scored in all of the matches played in the last three World Cups. The total goals were then divided between the two teams based on their relative match form. In the 100,000 simulations of the event’s first match, which saw Russia defeat Saudi Arabia by the unusually high score of 5-0, the model picked that exact score 91 times.

For the Group Stage, the order in the table (including goal difference and goals scored) was computed and the top two teams moved on to the next round according to the competition rules. The same process was used for all subsequent rounds. If there was a draw (tie) in a later round, then the winner of the penalty shootout was drawn from a Bernoulli PDF (featuring discrete, random variables and having only two outcomes – success/failure) with a mean of the teams’ relative form.

“From an experienced-user perspective, I really liked being able to use an @RISK function, just like any other Excel function, without having to go through a series of input screens or boxes.”
Steve Begg, University of Adelaide

Degrees of Belief
Begg stored all of the winners after each round in order to calculate the probabilities of a team progressing based on 100,000 simulations (one million simulations produced no significant differences) – which he says took only five minutes on his laptop. He also calculated the probability of the World Cup Final being between any two teams.

“Its important to realize that probability is subjective. It depends on what information you have. There’s this tendency for people who do this kind of work to obsess on data,” Begg says. “You might argue that these simulations are the most useful when you have no data at all. But you do need to understand your uncertain quantities well enough to assign a probability distribution that reflects your degree of belief in what the outcomes might be. What’s crucial is that neither the information nor your reasoning is biased.”

Although he’ll continue updating his model until the World Cup ends on July 15, Begg is already back at his paying job, where he’s been using @RISK since the mid-1990s for technical and business uncertainty assessments to support decision-making.

“At one point the nature of my work changed to things that could be tackled in spreadsheets, like economic evaluations and simple production models, so I adopted @RISK to model their uncertainty. From an experienced-user perspective, I really liked being able to use an @RISK function, just like any other Excel function, without having to go through a series of input screens or boxes,” Begg says.

“When I teach Monte Carlo simulation I do it native in Excel, so that my students in industry and at the University can see how easy it is and that there is nothing mysterious about the process – but it is cumbersome. They are then delighted to find out how much quicker and simpler it is to do it with @RISK.”

» See related story: 2018 World Cup Russia


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