» @RISK Manages Operational Risks in the Green Supply Chain
"Going green" can be a complex transition from an operational perspective, and not all companies are convinced that improved environmental performance will lead to financial gains. Dr. Sachin K. Mangla with Graphic Era University-Dehradun used Palisade risk analysis software @RISK to identify and evaluate the operational risks of implementing a green supply chain for a well-established plastic manufacturing company in India.
» UK Department of Energy and Climate Change uses @RISK for carbon emission targets
The UK government's Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), is tasked with maintaining secure and economic energy supplies for the UK, while ensuring that the UK's greenhouse gas emissions meet international targets set to combat climate change.
» The Most Un-Likely Scenario: Financial Case Study with Example Model
Jerry Scherer, President of JB Scherer Consulting Group LLC, uses @RISK to provide risk modeling services to companies in the Midwest, identifying the key drivers in their plans, budgets, or forecasts.
» @RISK Helps Integrate Renewable Energy Sources
@RISK used by Roy Nersesian, a professor at the Leon Hess Business School at Monmouth University and author of the book, Energy Risk Modeling. Nersesian used @RISK to develop a detailed model that takes into account the size and location of farms, fluctuations in electricity supply and demand, and electricity storage requirements.
» University of Pretoria Creates an @RISK Model for Stopping the Spread of Avian Flu
“@RISK is a valuable tool to investigate these problems and do risk predictions either prospectively or retrospectively. Utilizing the outputs from models like this can help health policy planners and public health officials to take anticipatory measures to prevent future disasters associated with infectious diseases like the avian flu.”, Says Dr. Folorunso Oludayo Fasina, a senior lecturer at the University of Pretoria’s Department of Production Animal Studies.“
» At University of Melbourne, Modeling the Potential Impact of a Carbon Tax on Australian Farmers, with @RISK
Agricultural scientist Dr. Şeyda Özkan used @RISK to examine how a carbon tax would financially impact dairy farmers in Australia that employ two different feeding systems: a traditional ryegrass pasture-based system, and a complementary forage-based system.
» Cal Poly uses DecisionTools Suite to Examine Hedging Strategy of Agricultural Producers
California grows nearly half of the fruits, nuts, and vegetables consumed in the United States – worth $46.4 billion – yet agriculture can be one of the highest risk economic activities. Many California produce farm operations use an 80/20 rule of thumb as a hedge ratio for seasonal production. Steven Slezak, a Lecturer in the Agribusiness Department at Cal Poly, and Dr. Jay Noel, the former Agribusiness Department Chair, used the DecisionTools Suite to evaluate the 80% hedge strategy in use by a lettuce producer.
» School of Mining Engineering at the U of Witwatersrand uses @RISK for Financial Analysis Modeling
“It’s very important to give students a real-world feel of how mining operations are managed financially – before they head out into the professional world,” explains Professor RCA Minnitt. “An understanding of Monte Carlo simulation is absolutely essential. Without this discipline’s knowledge and use, robust and credible financial analysis is not possible. @RISK is an essential tool for both our undergraduate and post graduate programmes. In any one year, we have anywhere between 700 – 900 students in the School of Mining Engineering. All our students are exposed to Monte Carlo simulation via @RISK.”
» US National Marine Fisheries Service uses @RISK for Salmon Population Models
Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Marine Fisheries Service used @RISK to model the effects of dams on the population viability of Atlantic salmon in the Penobscot River watershed in Maine. Their results showed that abundance and distribution upstream increased when dams in the primary downstream segments of the river, also called “mainstem dams," were removed, or fish passage survival was increased. The findings were recently published online in the ICES Journal of Marine Science.
» Will Aviation Biofuels Fly?
@RISK Helps Assess Two Different Government Policies in Purdue University Study
Developing biofuels for aircraft is a risky endeavor, as transforming plant material into liquid fuel is still very expensive compared to the price of fossil fuels. Dr. Wallace Tyner and his colleagues at Purdue University in Indiana used @RISK to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of building an aviation biofuel plant, and to determine the potential impacts of two different government policies to jump-start this technology: reverse auction and capital subsidy.
» @RISK Helps Keep Endangered Fish from Extinction
The Devils Hole pupfish (Cyprinodon diabolis) is one of the world’s most endangered animals. A major strategy for conserving the pupfish has been to create additional captive populations, but scientists needed to know how to best extract wild pupfish for breeding purposes without unduly accelerating the extinction risk for the population in Devils Hole. Dr. Steven Beissinger, Professor of Conservation Biology at the University of California, Berkeley, constructed a population variability analysis (PVA) using @RISK to better inform this dilemma.
» How Safe is That Shrimp? @RISK Weighs Health Risks of Seafood after Deepwater Horizon Spill
Southeast Louisiana is home to a large population of Vietnamese Americans who rely heavily on the shrimp caught in the Gulf for their livelihood and as a food source. When the Deepwater Horizon oil spill happened in in April 2010, this group was particularly concerned. Dr. Jeffrey Wickliffe, Associate Professor of Global Environmental Health Sciences at the Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, conducted a targeted health risk analysis on the Vietnamese shrimping community and their potential for heightened risk from the Deepwater Horizon spill.
» @RISK Crucial in Live Donor Kidney Transplant Study
Dr. Bekir Tanriover, Assistant Professor of Internal Medicine at University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, wanted to examine kidney transplant asymmetry more closely. Tanriover and his colleagues conducted a retrospective study of 100 kidney donors who had asymmetric kidneys, gathering three measurements from each patient: the kidney size (volume), filtration efficiency, and biopsy scores, and plugged them into @RISK.
» VCU Students use @RISK to Analyze Amazon and FedEx Financial Risk
Dr. Etti Baranoff, an Associate Professor of Insurance and Finance at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, has her students collect real-life financial info about current companies so they can learn how to apply Value at Risk (VaR) analysis. Dr. Baranoff's students use @RISK to analyze which accounting data inputs (from both the balance sheet and income statements) can be most damaging to the net income and net worth of a company.
» Professor Hooked on @RISK Brings its Benefits to Cal State Monterey Bay
Dr. Sumadhur Shakya, Assistant Professor of Operations Management & Agribusiness at California State University, Monterey Bay (CSUMB), has used @RISK in his own academic research and as a teaching tool in his classes, Operations Management and Supply Chain Management. Indeed, thanks to his championing of the software, 360 students at CSUMB will use @RISK, annually, either in Dr. Shakya's classes, or in other business courses such as Commodity Trading.
» Using @RISK for a Drug Development Decision: A Classroom Example
At Illinois State University, Associate Professor of Finance Domingo Joaquin uses @RISK to demonstrate how simulation modeling can be employed to support the R&D decision of a pharmaceutical firm, illustrating countless risk evaluation examples to students.
» Johnson Graduate School of Management Prof Examines FiveThirtyEight Election Predictions using @RISK
Dr. Lawrence Robinson, Professor of Operations Management at Cornell University’s Johnson Graduate School of Management, explains that FiveThirtyEight, the stats-centered news site that builds interactive forecasts that are updated almost daily, introduces correlation through an additional random variable representing what they’ve labelled "national error". They generate and add it to the mean margin of victory of every candidate. "Unfortunately, nowhere in their post do they specify the probability distribution for his new 'national error' random variable," Robinson says. "Thus it is not possible to know how correlated the individual races are with one another." Robinson devised a way to arrive at these forecasts using his own statistical methods, and to use a correlation that is explicitly defined.
» UCSD Research uses @RISK and PrecisionTree Informs Public Health Policy
The Hepatitis B virus is 100 times more infectious than HIV, and kills more than 780,000 people each year. Yet throughout the past 30 years, the U.S. Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) had calculated the societal cost-benefits of universal Hepatitis B screening, and found that screening the entire US population was not worth the cost. After dedicated field work, @RISK modeling, and PrecisionTree analysis, researchers at the University of California San Diego School of Medicine found that, rather than screening the entire US population, targeting key at-risk groups would indeed result in worthwhile health outcomes.
» University of New Brunswick Applies @RISK to Sustainable Seafood Farming
Aquaculture has become a booming industry in many regions of the world. According to the World Bank, nearly two-thirds of the seafood we consume will be farm-raised in 2030. However, commercial aquaculture can have negative environmental impacts, such as high nutrient waste and low oxygen environments. Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) are managed, multi-species aquaculture systems designed to improve environmental management, and increase harvest value through product diversification and recycling of nutrients. Dr. Gregor Reid, a senior research scientist with the University of New Brunswick, used @RISK to determine the ideal ratios of kelps to uptake soluble metabolites from a salmon IMTA system.
» @RISK Improves Upon Black-Scholes Options Pricing Method
The financial world holds a great deal of risk. To help balance some of the unknowns, Dr. José Raúl Castro Esparza, professor at Benemerita Universidad Autonoma de Puebla, in Puebla, Mexico has used @RISK to create a more exact and accurate pricing strategy for a key financial tool, the derivative. He has used this model as a teaching tool for both graduate and undergraduate students in the Actuarial Sciences and Masters of Finance programs at his university.
» GWU Researchers Use
@RISK for Debt Portfolios and Capital Investment Decisions
When faced with multiple kinds of debt instruments or exclusive capital investments, how can an analyst make a decision that maximizes reward but minimizes risk? Emmanuel Donkor, a quantitative analyst and faculty member of the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS) at George Washington University addressed these complicated problems, using Palisade software @RISK and RISKOptimizer. His research has led to new and better methods for addressing these financial statistical problems.
» Kansas State University Utilizes @RISK to Aid in Biosecurity for Beef Cattle
Dr. Michael Sanderson, a professor of Beef Production and Epidemiology at Kansas State University’s (KSU) College of Veterinary Medicine, used @RISK to improve disease management and controls—primarily by identifying management practices that affect the probability of disease introduction and production, as well as strategies that would lower biological and economic risk over a ten-year planning horizon.
» University of Arkansas Researchers Use @RISK to Analyze Rice
Farmer Mass Tort Claims
Recently, some Arkansas rice farmers banded together in a mass tort action against RiceTec®. These rice farmers claimed that RiceTec's pricier varieties of rice were faulty and milled poorly. According to the farmers, this combination of higher costs to them along with (in their view) lower quality meant the group could not earn profits on the hybrid rice which were equivalent to conventional varieties. By using @RISK's Monte Carlo Simulation features, Dr. L. Lanier Nalley, an associate professor of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness at the University of Arkansas, was able to show that RiceTec’s hybrids were not only more profitable, but also less risky than their conventional counterparts.
» University of Tokyo uses @RISK to Help Improve Mad Cow Disease Detection
In Japan, all cattle butchered for human consumption are tested for BSE, as well as all cattle that died over 24 months old. However, due to the variability of the age of slaughter and death, and duration of incubation period and the limited detection capability of the diagnostic test, Professor Sugiura uses Monte Carlo simulation in @RISK to improve the surveillance program. He builds stochastic models that predict how changing the testing age of the cattle will impact the number of cattle tested and BSE infected cattle detected.
» Using @RISK to Improve Success of
New Ventures at
Australia’s Swinburne University of Technology
In new ventures there is often very little known about the market that is to be exploited. There is no sales history and often no experience delivering the product or service in question. Sometimes it might not even be known if the product that is the centre of the business will work. Researchers Dr Clint Steele and Kourosh Dini of Australia’s Swinburne University of Technology decided to use @RISK to resolve this issue. With Darcy Naunton of the Australian venture capital firm Adventure Capital they put this idea to the test. The plan: use @RISK to apply probabilistic design to a new venture.
» University of London and EpiX Analytics
Teach @RISK in Health
and Food Safety Postgraduate Certificate
Risk analysis is increasingly being used to support decisions relevant to national food safety and animal health policies as well as international trade agreements, with an overall goal of reducing the probability and impact of diseases in animals and humans. This has led to a growing demand for suitably qualified risk analysts and cutting-edge risk analysis practices in health and food safety. EpiX Analytics has teamed up with University of London, to launch an academic Postgraduate Certificate in Risk Analysis in Health and Food Safety.
» Shanghai’s Top University Relies on @RISK and DecisionTools
Suite to Train Next Generation of Engineering Leaders
Professor Li Mian of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, one of China’s top universities, demonstrates to his students how Palisade software can be used in the Engineering sector. Dr. Li gives two examples on how the software is used in his teaching and research. The first example involves a study of pricing risk and decision-making when introducing a new product to the market. The second example is how the software can be applied when determining the influences of various factors on tolerances in car engine design.
» At King’s College, @RISK is used to Evaluate the Economic
Impact of Medical Interventions
Dr. Sadmir Ciketic, Research Fellow in Health Economics at King’s College London has been using Palisade’s @RISK since his postgraduate days. His research in health economics and public health involves economic evaluation of healthcare programs and quantifying risks and uncertainties to evaluate the economic impact of medical interventions, such as the costs and benefits/harms of new medications, new or existing treatments and medical technologies.
» Palisade Publishes New Book by Roy Nersesian on Energy Risk Modeling
Roy Nersesian's new book, Energy Risk Modeling is loaded with real-life examples that demonstrate how @RISK, PrecisionTree, and Evolver can be used to make better financial decisions within the oil and gas, electricity, and renewable energy industries. Much of Energy Risk Modeling is a result of Professor Nersesian’s Energy Modeling course at Columbia University.
» Project Portfolio Management at
In an award-winning case study, researchers at the London Business School used @RISK, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer to demonstrate some of the analytical techniques used by Novartis for R&D project selection and prioritization.
» @RISK Utilized in Spelman College Grant Research Project on Health Care
Costs of Former Inmates
According to Dr. Marionette Holmes, assistant professor at Spelman College, the homeless and previously-incarcerated population represents one of the most vulnerable demographics in the United States in terms of health care, and the cost for caring for these individuals can be staggering. One of the implementations of @RISK in this research is through a model that converts risky sexual behavior into HIV transmission risk and uses findings to project future HIV transmission probabilities.
» University of Houston MBAs put the DecisionTools Suite to Work
When people talk about leverage, they are most likely talking about financial instruments or mechanical advantage. But when Phil Rogers talks about leverage, he could very well be referring to the use of powerful PC software. Phil teaches Managerial Decision Making to MBA candidates at the University of Houston’s C. T. Bauer College of Business where most of his students are managers with industry experience—and this is where leverage from software comes in.
» Research at Curtin University of Technology Explores Tools for
Teaching Probability and Risk
According to Darren O’Connell, Australian institutes of higher learning weren’t teaching probability and risk in a manner that reflected the technological advancements of the 21st century. To prove the point, he explored these deficiencies in his doctoral research at Curtin University of Technology (Australia), using Palisade solutions.
» Rotman School of Management Students Learn To Make Key Financial Decisions
Using Monte Carlo Simulation
In Professor Asher Drory's Financial Management course, Drory uses @RISK to teach some 200 graduate students each year how to use Monte Carlo simulation in analyzing working capital and capital budgeting decisions. Monte Carlo simulation furnishes the decision-maker with a range of possible outcomes and the probabilities that will occur for any choice of action.
» Pepperdine’s Graziadio School of Business Leverages Palisade DecisionTools
Software to Teach Students the “Why” Behind Decision Analysis
MBA students are learning the value of decision analysis at Pepperdine University’s Graziadio School of Business and Management. Dr. Warren “Joe” Hahn, Assistant Professor of Decision Sciences, teaches his Applied Data Analysis class to 75 Pepperdine MBA students a year. Realizing that data analysis alone is not what the majority of MBA graduates will do, he relies on Palisade software to facilitate understanding of the business implications behind the analysis—key skills employers are looking for in MBA grads.
» Illinois State's MBA Corporate Finance uses @RISK for Advanced Techniques
Students in corporate finance classes at Illinois State University’s College of Business rely on Palisade’s @RISK. Dr. Domingo Castelo Joaquin teaches Advanced Corporate Finance in a special MBA program for executives and managers from Archer Daniels Midland and other neighboring firms such as Caterpillar, and he also teaches undergraduate seniors in the University’s College of Business. Both groups of students use @RISK to learn advanced financial analysis techniques using Monte Carlo simulation.
» Teaching Concepts of Risk Analysis in Economic Evaluations with @RISK
For several years, Professor Cuneo (Civil Engineer, MBA Finance, and Certificate in Risk Management) has taught graduate-level energy economics and development using @RISK at the Federico Santa Maria Technical University and the Universidad de Antofagasta. @RISK helps Professor Cuneo’s students to understand and apply the basic concepts of risk analysis in economics valuations, such as Jensen Inequality, Means Fallacy, Risk Index, and more.
» @RISK Helps Columbia University Students Tackle Global Risks
Students in Professor Roy Nersesian’s Quantitative Methods in Energy and Policy Analysis course gain hands-on experience in the development and interpretation of quantitative models for project evaluation and policy assessment. The students develop cash flow and market models using Palisade’s @RISK.
» Cornell and Purdue use @RISK to Assess US Agriculture
To assess the impacts of government policy tools on farmland risk and return researchers at Cornell and Purdue developed an economic model for farm income and expenses based on a representative parcel of land and crop mix. @RISK allowed the researchers to model the uncertainties associated with crop yield and price.
» Palisade DecisionTools Suite version 6.0 Now Available!
New DecisionTools Suite version 6.0 includes a wide range of improvements, including powerful new integration of @RISK with Microsoft Project that allows you to perform risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation on your Microsoft Project schedules – all from the @RISK for Excel platform!
» Cranfield University uses @RISK for Product Reliability
A project focusing on sub-sea equipment for the oil and gas industry at Cranfield University provided evidence to business managers that a better return on investment (ROI) is achieved through enhancing a product's long-term reliability as a result of spending time and resources early in the product design lifecycle.
» Royal Veterinary College uses @RISK to Combat Avian Flu
The RVC's epidemiology skills enable it to identify and understand the risks associated with specific diseases. However, in order to determine appropriate activity to prevent infections spreading, the RVC must quantify the risks it has outlined. To do this it uses @RISK software.
» @RISK and StatTools critical for
Masters of Accounting students
Professor Joe Callaghan teaches Financial Analysis and Evaluation to students at Oakland University, where he has been an instructor for more than 20 years. A colleague who was using @RISK in a Management Information Systems Decision Modeling course sung its praises. Professor Callaghan was intrigued, and discovered that Palisade software has many useful applications in financial analysis.
» Students Solve Probabilistic Problems
Productivity at Northeastern University
Professor Ali Touran of Northeastern University in Boston has been using @RISK for over 20 years. In the early 1990s, he prepared the first risk assessment manual for the US Federal Transit Administration, using @RISK.
» CRC Press Publishes Primer on Risk Analysis:
Decision Making Under Uncertainty by Charles Yoe
This new book lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions “what is risk analysis?” and "how do I do this?” The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis.
» Decision Making and Risk Management at Ruhr University, Germany
Dr. Brigitte Werners at Ruhr-University in Bochum, Germany first came to learn of @RISK when it was recommended to her by a colleague. Eight years later, she continues to use @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite in her 120-student undergraduate course Risk Management and Simulation, and her 80-graduate student course, Rational Decision Making.
» March Madness Simulations Demonstrate Uncertainty and Decision-Making
Villanova University Professor Robert Nydick, PhD, finds that the NCAA March Madness tournament makes an excellent simulation to show his MBA students how @RISK software can measure the impact of uncertainty and enhance decision-making.
» Grad Students use @RISK to Tackle Real-Life Challenges
When Glasgow Caledonian University Prof. John Houston was looking to show his Risk Management students the power of @RISK software, he turned to a real-life problem facing Network Rail – the demolition of redundant coal sheds and signal boxes on the east coast of Scotland.
» Grad Students at IE Business School in Spain Use @RISK to Simulate Catastrophe
In a course taught at the Instituto de Empresa Business School, Madrid, Dr. Milo Jones uses Palisade software to illustrate the possible effects of various geopolitical scenarios (pandemics, earthquakes, terrorist attacks, etc.) on a firm's revenues, expenses and operations.
» New Experts’ Corner Video Series
Palisade is pleased to announce a new series of how-to video tutorials on getting the most from @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software. The Experts’ Corner is a great place to get a refresher on Palisade tools or refer students for a quick overview./p>
» Stanford University Press Publishes New Text on Entrepreneurial
Finance Featuring DecisionTools Software
Stanford University Press has released an important new textbook in the rapidly expanding field of entrepreneurship: Entrepreneurial Finance: Strategy, Valuation, and Deal Structure by Janet Kiholm Smith, Richard L. Smith, and Richard T. Bliss. The new title is unique in its application of quantitative, probabilistic analysis to tackle the enormous uncertainties facing any new venture.
» Palisade Publishes Three New
Books on Business Risk Management
Leading risk analysis expert and professor at Monmouth and Columbia Universities Roy Nersesian has written three practical, how-to textbooks on applying quantitative risk analysis techniques to a wide range of business problems. All books include step-by-step examples using Excel and DecisionTools Suite software and example Excel files, enabling readers to put this expertise to work immediately.
» At the Univeristy of Pennsylvania, @RISK
Helps Future Leaders Handle Uncertainty
What traits make a person an effective leader? How that person handles uncertainty has to be near the top of the list, says Keith Hornbacher, MBA, Affiliated Faculty, Organizational Dynamics, at the University of Pennsylvania. But how do you teach a concept as hard to grasp as, well, uncertainty?
» Transportation Research Students “Question Everything”
with the Help of @RISK – and Decide on Answers
In Denmark, where gas costs around €1.65/liter ($9 USD/gallon), planners have to make transportation as efficient as possible. For Kim Bang Salling, Ph.D., assistant professor at the Technical University of Denmark, that means teaching graduate students in his “Risk Analysis and Decision Support” class to question everything when reviewing a transportation project.
» Classroom Experiences Applied
to Local Oil Industry at the Brazilian Petroleum Institute
Most of Professor Luciano Arantes Rezende Costa’s students at the Brazilian Petroleum Institute work in the local oil industry. So, when he teaches his 20-hour course on evaluation of petroleum exploration opportunities, he has to provide hands-on lessons his students can immediately apply in their own careers.
» Integrating Palisade Tools into the
Classroom, Dr. Samuel Frimpong of the Missouri University of Science and Technology
For their capstone design projects, undergraduate mining engineering students at Missouri University of Science and Technology have to develop “real-world” solutions. So, Dr. Samuel Frimpong provides his students with real-world tools, including Palisade’s @RISK software.
» University of Buenos Aires Analyzes
Agricultural Portfolios with @RISK
With the advent of corporate farming, analysts at large agricultural companies have begun to apply the same kinds of risk analysis techniques that their counterparts in the manufacturing and finances sectors use, to the powerful uncertainties of market prices and the natural world.
» Cornell University and @RISK Help
LCRA Manage Water Supplies
In a unique partnership, Cornell University Operations Research students collaborated with the LRCA to develop a water supply model using Palisade’s @RISK software.
» Bucknell University Uses PrecisionTree
in Cable TV Rollout Decision
Bucknell University offers digital cable television service in all of its 1,700 residence rooms. Palisade’s PrecisionTree decision analysis tool was instrumental in Bucknell’s decision to build the network and deploy the service.
» Cambridge University's Judge
uses @RISK to advise on climate change
The Judge Business School at Cambridge University in the UK performs scientific research in addition to management work. The School’s Management Research Group provided key input to the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. The Review was the largest and most widely referenced report of its kind and was used by government bodies such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC). The report was undertaken for the British government by Lord Stern and discusses the effect of climate change and global warming on the world economy.
» @RISK 5.7 and DecisionTools Suite 5.7
Academic 64-bit Now Available
We are pleased to announce the release of @RISK 5.7 and DecisionTools Suite 5.7 academic versions, with full compatibility with Excel 2010, both 64-bit and 32-bit versions. Now all academic versions, including those bundled with textbooks and all course licenses, are compatible with 64-bit Excel.