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Manage the Future@RISK performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your Microsoft Excel spreadsheet—and tells you how likely they are to occur. This means you can judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid, allowing for the best decision making under uncertainty. With @RISK, you can answer questions like, “What is the probability of profit exceeding $10 million?” or “What are the chances of losing money on this venture?”
Getting Started in @RISK
» More on risk analysis
» More on Monte Carlo simulation
Announcing @RISK 5.5.1
New @RISK 5.5.1 for Excel runs simulations 2 to 20 times faster than @RISK 5.0! It also includes scatter plots from scenario analysis, a freehand distribution artist, and an Excel-style Insert Function dialog with graphs. @RISK brings a wide range of new features to improve your analysis, save time, and encourage systematic adoption of risk analysis across your organization.
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In addition, @RISK has been fully translated into Spanish, German, French, Portuguese and Japanese.
» What's New in @RISK 5.5.1
» What's New in @RISK 5.5
» What's New in @RISK 5.0
@RISK 5.5.1 Industrial includes RISKOptimizer 5.5.1 in the same toolbar ribbon. RISKOptimizer features a constraint solver, streamlined interface, support for cell ranges, and much more. RISKOptimizer is also fully translated into Spanish, German, French, Portuguese and Japanese
» More about RISKOptimizer
Watch Quick Tips on What's New in RISKOptimizer
@RISK for Six Sigma
@RISK comes with Six Sigma statistics, functions, and reports. It is used to identify, measure, and root out the causes of variability in your production and service processes and designs.
» Learn more about @RISK for Six Sigma and download example models
@RISK Industries & Applications
@RISK is used to analyze risk and uncertainty in a wide variety of industries. From the financial to the scientific, anyone who faces uncertainty in their quantitative analyses can benefit from @RISK.
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INDUSTRY
SAMPLE APPLICATION
Retirement planning
Currency valuation Real options analysis Discounted Cash Flow analysis Value-at-risk Portfolio optimization Loss reserves estimation
Premium pricing Exploration and production
Oil reserves estimation Capital project estimation Pricing Regulation compliance Manufacturing quality control
Customer service improvement DMAIC DFSS / DOE Lean Six Sigma Six Sigma and quality analysis
New product analysis Production siting Plant shutdown Product life cycle analysis New product analysis
R&D estimation Disease infection estimation Endangered species preservation
Pollution cleanup and projections
Resource allocation
War games Welfare and budgetary projections Cost estimating
Highway planning and optimization Supply chain distribution |
Excel Ease of Use
@RISK is a true add-in to Microsoft Excel, integrating completely with your spreadsheet. Browse, define, analyze—while never leaving Excel. All @RISK functions are true Excel functions, and behave exactly as native Excel functions do. @RISK windows are all linked directly to cells in your spreadsheet, so changes in one place are carried out in the other. @RISK graphs point to their cells via callout windows. Drag-and-drop ease, context-sensitive right-click menus, and the @RISK toolbar make learning and navigating @RISK a snap.
Model, Simulate, Understand
Running an analysis with @RISK involves three simple steps:
1. Set Up Your Model. Start by replacing uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK probability distribution functions, like Normal, Uniform, or over 35 others. These @RISK functions simply represent a range of different possible values that a cell could take instead of limiting it to just one case. Choose your distribution from a graphical gallery, or define distributions using historical data for a given input. Even combine distributions with @RISK’s Compound function. Share specific distribution functions with others using the @RISK Library, or swap out @RISK functions for colleagues who don’t have @RISK.
See the @RISK distribution palette
Next, select your outputs—the "bottom line" cells whose values interest you. This could be potential profits, ROI, insurance claims payout, disease recovery rate, or anything at all.
Define Uncertainty with Ease
@RISK comes with 38 distribution functions. These are true Excel functions, behaving the same way as Excel’s native functions and giving you total modeling flexibility. Choosing which @RISK distribution function to use is easy because @RISK comes with a graphical distribution gallery that lets you preview and compare various distributions before selecting them. You can even set up your distributions using percentiles as well as standard parameters, and overlay different distribution graphs for comparison. You can use historical or industry data and @RISK’s integrated data fitting tool to select the best distribution function and the right parameters. You can select the type of data to be fit (e.g. continuous. discrete, or cumulative), filter the data, specify distribution types to be fit and specify Chi-Squared binning to be used. Fitted distributions are ranked based on three statistical tests, and may be compared graphically. You can even overlay graphs of multiple fitted distributions. Fit results can be linked to @RISK functions, so the functions will update automatically when input data changes.
Input distributions may be correlated with one another, individually or in a time series. Correlations are quickly defined in matrices that pop up over Excel, and a Correlated Time Series can be added in a single click. A Correlated Time Series is created from a multi-period range that contains a set of similar distributions in each time period.
All @RISK functions and correlations in your model are summarized—with thumbnail graphs—in the dashboard-style @RISK Model window, and you can watch distribution graphs pop up as you browse through cells in your spreadsheet.
Share Your Model with Others
@RISK functions can be stored in the @RISK Library, a SQL database for sharing with other @RISK users. @RISK functions may also be removed with the Function Swap feature, enabling your models be to shared with colleagues who don’t have @RISK installed. @RISK will keep track of any changes that occur in the spreadsheet while the @RISK functions were “swapped out.” You can control how @RISK should update formulas when it finds changes in the model. In addition, you can have @RISK automatically swap out functions when a workbook is saved and closed and automatically swap in if necessary when a workbook is opened.
2. Run the Simulation. Click the Simulate button and watch. @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet model thousands of times. Each time, @RISK samples random values from the @RISK functions you entered, places them in your model, and records the resulting outcome. Explain the process to others by running your simulation in Demo Mode, with graphs and reports updating live as the simulation runs.
See simulation in progress 3. Understand Your Risks. The result of a simulation is a look at a whole range of possible outcomes, including the probabilities they will occur. Graph your results with histograms, Scatter Plots, cumulative curves, Box Plots, and more. Identify critical factors with Tornado charts and sensitivity analysis. Paste results into Excel, Word, or PowerPoint, or place them in the @RISK Library for other @RISK users. You can even save results and charts right inside your Excel workbook.
See sampling of @RISK graphs
Clear, Easy-to-Understand Results
@RISK provides a wide range of graphs for interpreting and presenting your results to others. Histograms and cumulative curves show the probability of different outcomes occurring. Use overlay graphs to compare multiple results, and summary graphs and Box Plots to see risk and trends over time or over ranges. Right-click menus and handy toolbars make navigation a snap. All graphs are fully customizable—including titles, axes, scaling, colors, and more—and ready for export to Excel, Word, or PowerPoint. You can watch results graphs pop up as you browse through cells in your spreadsheet.
@RISK provides you with sensitivity and scenario analyses to determine the critical factors in your models. Use sensitivity analysis to rank the distribution functions in your model according to the impact they have on your outputs. See the results clearly with an easy-to-interpret Tornado diagram, or uncover relationships with Scatter Plots. Sensitivity analysis pre-screens all inputs based on their precedence in formulas to outputs in your model, thus reducing irrelevant data. In addition, you can use @RISK’s MakeInput function to select a formula whose value will be treated as an @RISK input for sensitivity analysis. In this way, multiple distributions can be combined into a single input, streamlining your sensitivity reports.
All simulation results for both outputs and inputs are summarized—with thumbnail graphs—in the dashboard-style @RISK Results Summary window. Simulation results may be saved directly in your Excel workbook, and also placed in the @RISK Library to for sharing with other @RISK users.
Three Editions to Meet Your Needs
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Advanced Simulation Engine
Support for 2 CPUs or processor cores
Over 40 Built-in Distribution Functions
Integrated Distribution Gallery
Insert Function Command
Compound and Six Sigma functions
Variety of Result Graphs and Charts
Live Updating During Simulation
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
Correlation of Inputs
Freehand Distribution Artist
Integrated Data Fitting
@RISK Library
Excel Developer Kit (XDK)
Stress Analysis
Advanced Sensitivity Analysis
@RISK Goal Seek
Advanced @RISKAccelerator
Optimization under uncertainty
Ranges for adjustable cells and
constraints Six solving methods
RISKOptimizer Watcher
Genetic algorithms
Convergence monitoring and
genetic operators Original, Best, Last model updating
@RISK Industrial
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@RISK Pro
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@RISK Standard
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@RISK is available in English, Spanish, French, German, Portuguese, and Japanese.
@RISK Professional
Designed for professional-grade problems in any industry, @RISK Professional is perfect for most commercial uses. It provides a balance of advanced analysis and point-and-click ease of use, and includes:
- Integrated distribution fitting: Defines distribution functions for you based on historical or industry data.
- @RISK Library: A SQL database for storing and sharing with others @RISK distribution functions, model components, and simulation results.
- Excel Developer Kit (XDK): Automate and customize @RISK for Excel through a complete library of commands and functions that let you control every aspect of @RISK in your spreadsheet. Add @RISK for Excel to any custom application.
- Stress Analysis: Lets you control the range that is sampled from a distribution function, enabling you to see how different scenarios affect your bottom line without changing your model.
- Advanced Sensitivity Analysis: Lets you see how changes in any input—distributions or regular values—affect simulation results.
- @RISK Goal Seek: Uses multiple simulations to find an input value that achieves a target simulation result you specify.
@RISK Industrial
Designed for your largest, most complex models, @RISK Industrial includes everything in @RISK Professional, plus the following:
- RISKOptimizer 5.5: Combine Monte Carlo simulation with genetic algorithm-based optimization to find the best combination of factors to lead to a desired result under uncertain conditions.
» More about RISKOptimizer
- Advanced @RISKAccelerator: Speed up simulations with parallel processing by using all multi-core processors and available CPUs within a single machine.
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FEATURES
Monte Carlo simulation
100% Excel calculations for simulation
Seamless integration into Microsoft Excel
Intuitive toolbars and right-click menus
Distribution palette and Insert Function command
Data fitting and Distribution Artist
Over 40 built-in distribution functions
@RISK Function Swap
@RISK Library
Compound function
Percentile distribution parameters
Correlation of inputs and correlation time series
Demo Mode and live updating
Extensive settings control
Fully customizable presentation-quality graphs
Reporting in Office
One-click Quick Reports
Histograms, area, line, cumulative, summary,
box plot, and overlay graphs Tornado charts and scatter plots
Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
Six Sigma functions
Multi-core processor and multiple CPU support
BENEFITS
Shows possible outcomes to avoid pitfalls and identify opportunities
Highest level of accuracy, and maximum
use of multi-core processors for speed Never leave your spreadsheet; get up to speed quickly
Easy navigation—multiple ways to perform common tasks
Easy and accurate definition of uncertain factors
Use data and expert judgment to define uncertain factors
Represent virtually any uncertain
factor for accurate modeling Remove (and later restore) @RISK functions for sharing models with non-@RISK users
Define, reuse, and share custom distributions and simulation results
Combines two distributions into one to streamline
insurance or other large models More flexible ways to define uncertainty
Represent dependency between related
variables for accurate modeling Graphs and reports update during simulation for
illustration to others Customize simulations to specific needs
See the impact of risk and communicate to stakeholders
All graphs and charts can be exported to Excel,
Word, and PowerPoint in native chart format for easy distribution to others See summary of charts and graphs
pre-formatted for one page Variety of graphing and charting options
for easy, accurate communication Visually identify critical factors and trends, overall and for particular scenarios
Identify the individual tasks that have the
most impact on results, and the particular scenarios that lead to certain results Report Six Sigma statistics for quality analysis
Speed up simulations
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Licensing and Training
@RISK is available through a variety of licensing options, including corporate, network, and academic licenses. Training, consulting, and books can be bundled with your software to ensure you and your staff get the most out of your investment.
Part of the DecisionTools Suite
@RISK is available by itself or as part of the DecisionTools Suite, Palisade’s complete risk and decision analysis toolkit. The DecisionTools Suite includes PrecisionTree for decision trees, TopRank for what-if analysis, NeuralTools and StatTools for data analysis, and more. @RISK is fully compatible with all DecisionTools programs and can be combined with them for greater insight and analysis. For example:
@RISK and TopRank
The focus of an @RISK analysis can be narrowed using TopRank. Especially with large models, this saves time and improves accuracy of your @RISK analysis. @RISK functions can also be used by TopRank to represent a wider range of values than TopRank’s standard functions.
Watch how @RISK and TopRank work together
@RISK and PrecisionTree
In addition, @RISK can be combined with PrecisionTree to represent uncertain chance events and payoffs in decision tree models. This enhances the accuracy of decision tree models by considering wider ranges of values for chance events instead of a few limited, discrete options.
Watch how @RISK and PrecisionTree work together
@RISK results can be run through a StatTools analysis to assess confidence intervals. @RISK can also be applied to results from a StatTools time-series forecast to simulate possible outcomes with more precision.
Watch how @RISK and StatTools work together
» More about The DecisionTools Suite
Save Over 50% When You Buy the Suite
The DecisionTools Suite costs less than buying just two component products separately.
In fact, you save over 50% versus buying all components individually. The best analyses at a
great price—with the DecisionTools Suite.
100% Excel
@RISK simulations are calculated 100% within Excel, supported by Palisade sampling and statistics proven in over twenty years of use. Palisade does not attempt to rewrite Excel in an external recalculator to gain speed. A single recalculation from an unsupported or poorly reproduced macro or function can dramatically change your results. Where will it occur, and when? Palisade harnesses the power of multiple CPUs and multi-core processors to give you the fastest calculations. Correct results-and fast-using @RISK!
Compatibility:
Compatible with PC Excel 2000 and higher and PC Windows 2000 and higher.
