Taking the Right Route
CENTRE FOR TRAFFIC AND TRANSPORT USES PALISADE RISK ANALYSIS TOOLS TO
EVALUATE ROAD AND TRANSPORT PROJECTS
18 September 2007, London - The Centre for Traffic and Transport (CTT), part of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU), is using risk analysis software from Palisade to evaluate the feasibility of new roads and transport projects. On behalf of a department of the Danish Ministry of Transport, it also assesses large infrastructure programmes such as proposals for bridges.
In particular, the CTT undertakes extensive evaluations with Palisade's @RISK analysis tool to produce a cost-benefit ratio that determines whether the benefits of a proposed transport venture justify its economic, social and environmental cost. Risk assessments include calculating if a new road will shorten journey times and reduce accidents. They also analyse issues such as the increase in pollution resulting from the tendency of new roads to be longer than the routes that they replace and the net change in traffic noise, as well as the amount of land and housing affected.
@RISK is also used to make a detailed and sophisticated analysis of the building cost of a new project. This is a more accurate prediction than the initial estimate provided by the construction company, which is usually based on best/worst case scenarios, and often increases over the course of the programme. Expert risk analysis enables the CTT to ensure it is making effective use of its government budget.
Kim Bang Salling, research analyst at the CTT comments: “@RISK is a highly sophisticated analysis tool that enables us to perform complicated predictions to determine accurate cost-benefit of projects. Despite the complexity of these forecasts, @RISK is straightforward to use. We can therefore design systems that are easy to transfer to our customers and partners. In addition, we are also able to add on to the CTT’s own products and then adapt these as necessary. As a result, each @RISK user can build a bespoke system that is specific to their exact requirements.”
As part of its expanding remit, the CTT uses @RISK for the risk analysis element of a decision support model for an EU-financed venture to improve the 'East-West transport corridor'. The project will determine the most effective and efficient way of distributing goods between Karlshamn Harbour in Sweden and the rest of the Baltic Sea region, including Denmark, Poland, Norway and northern Germany.
Craig Ferri, managing director of Palisade Europe, says: “Traditionally, the standard way to measure risk in the transport industry is to take the median of best case/worst case scenarios. However, by incorporating structured risk analysis into the equation, the CTT is establishing a groundwork for sophisticated and accurate technical modelling. As a result it is setting the standard for better, and more accurate decision-making that paves the way for more effective transport plans, proposal and policies, both in Denmark and around the world.”