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2018




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

September 13th, 2018 • Minneapolis

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive half day risk and decision analysis conference. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry.

Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The program will also include practical software training presented by Palisade. We’ll explore the features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modeling and analysis accessible and powerful.

This event is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company


“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


Networking Opportunities

Mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. All networking events on the schedule are included with your complimentary registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2018 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis.

Information about 2018 Conferences

Schedule

Thursday 13 September 2018

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 8:30
Registration and Coffee
8:30 - 8:45
WELCOME REMARKS

Ryan Meluch
Palisade Corporation

8:45 - 9:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

9:45 - 10:30
CASE STUDY

Long-Term Electric Utility Planning using @RISK
Garrison Marr & Brian Booth
Snohomish Public Utility District

10:30 - 10:45
Networking Break with Refreshments
10:45 - 11:30
CASE STUDY

TBA

11:30 - 12:15
CASE STUDY

TBA

12:15 - 1:00
1:00 - 1:15
Closing Remarks

Presenters

  Brian Booth

Senior Manager of Rates, Economics, & Energy Risk Management
Snohomish Public Utility District

Brian Booth is Senior Manager of Rates, Economics, & Energy Risk Management at Snohomish Public Utility District. He manages the utility’s Cost of Service and rate design efforts along with the load forecasting and short-term energy risk management programs. Brian has a BS in Economics from Portland State University and an MBA from Washington State University.

  Garrison Marr

Principal Utility Analyst
Snohomish Public Utility District

Garrison Marr is a Principal Utility Analyst at Snohomish Public Utility District where he contributes to the management of power supply budgets and contracts, long and short-term planning, and resource evaluation. Previously, Garrison held roles in corporate energy management, sustainability, and housing development. Garrison has a BA in Economics from Western Washington University and an MPA in Financial Management from the University of Illinois at Chicago.

  Fernando Hernández

Senior Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Fernando Hernández' areas of expertise are banking, finance, manufacturing, project evaluation, market forecasting and pricing. Fernando currently owns and operates InfoMasters, a company geared towards training, consulting and developing financial applications and decision making models for financial and manufacturing companies, using Microsoft Office and Palisade software. He has developed and taught courses including Intro to Corporate Finance, and Financial Simulation and Investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has created financial models, risk analyses and feasibility studies using @RISK. Fernando earned his licentiate degree in Finance Administration from the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar, he completed his MBA at Indiana University majoring in Finance & MIS.

Abstracts

  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst's toolbox. We'll also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  Long-Term Utility Planning using @RISK

Garrison Marr
Brian Booth
Snohomish Public Utility District

Electric utilities must plan the acquisition of future generating or conservation resources far in advance in order to ensure that electricity is available from the utility’s portfolio of resources when customer’s need it. In the Pacific Northwest, the high concentration of generating fuels like wind and hydro can introduce uncertainty to the performance of a utility’s existing portfolio. To better understand the needs of the Snohomish Public Utility District, analysts used @Risk to create a Probabilistic Load Resource Balance Model, simulating the possible combinations of customer loads and portfolio generation and resulting energy needs over time. Data outputs from the Load Resource Balance Model fed a Portfolio Optimization Model which utilized @Risk’s RiskOptimizer, which solved for the most cost-effective portfolio of new and existing resources to meet customer needs under a variety of possible scenarios.

  Introduction to Optimization, Decision Trees, and Sensitivity Analysis using The DecisionTools Suite

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

Palisade's DecisionTools Suite package provides a number of different tools for risk and decision analysis. In addition to @RISK, popular tools in the set include TopRank, a powerful program which allows fast and easy sensitivity analysis on any Excel model, PrecisionTree which allows users to build decision trees for evaluating options, and Evolver/RISKOptimizer for building optimization models. In this presentation, we will look at some example models that demonstrate the capabilities of each of these tools.

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