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2017




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

April 27th, 2017 • London

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day conference in Sandton. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore the features in @RISK and The DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis accessible and powerful.

This event is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company


“Very impressive and good chance to link with colleagues.”

Michael Pemberton, Operations Research Analyst, Pueblo Community College (ret.)


“Excellent conference. Very informative. Great topics.”

Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk Management at CenterPoint Energy


“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


“Another great conference - well done! It's always a stimulating and thought-provoking experience, and great hospitality.”

Michael Brand, Captum Capital

Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer two types of sessions to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Networking Opportunities – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. All networking events on the schedule are included with your complimentary registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2018 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2018 include Mumbai, London, Moscow, Singapore, and Jakarta.

Information about 2018 Conferences

Schedule

Tuesday 27 February 2018

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:30 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:45
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri, Palisade Managing Director
Quinton Van Eden, Consultant

Palisade Corporation

9:45 - 11:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

11:00 - 11:20
Networking Break
11:20 - 12:00
CASE STUDY

Modelling the Meaningful: A Stochastic Approach to Business Risk and Risk Management
Jaco Van der Merwe / Shauib Ghoor
Deloitte

12:00 - 12:40
12:40 - 13:30
Networking Lunch
13:30 - 14:10
CASE STUDY

Implementing Objectives-Based ERM using @RISK
Quinton Van Eeden
Palisade Corporation

14:10 - 14:50
CASE STUDY

Evolution of Stroke Prevention Medicine for Medical Aid Scheme
Aleksandra Beverin
Old Mutual Insure

14:50 - 15:10
Networking Break
15:10 - 15:50
16:15 - 17:00
Closing Remarks and Networking Reception

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Presenters

  Aleksandra Beverin

Senior Manager: Analytics
Old Mutual Insure

Aleksandra Beverin holds BCom Hons from the University of Belgrade in Serbia. She immigrated to South Africa in 1993 and worked in automotive, mining/cement manufacturing, pharmaceutical and insurance industries as Market Analyst, Strategy and Risk Manager and Executive for Analytics.

  Quinton Van Eeden

Risk Analyst
TPG GRC

Quinton is a quantitative risk analyst and programme/project planning specialist with more than 20 years’ experience in risk and general management. He is a lawyer by training and holds advanced level professional PMI certifications in project- and project risk management as well as a Masters degree in Information and Knowledge Management. Currently undertaking a literature review for a PhD thesis on Capital Programme Risk Management. He specializes in the application of quantitative modelling and analysis techniques to determine the effect of uncertainty on project estimates, operations, exploration and strategic investment decisions.

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  Shauib Ghoor

Senior Actuarial Analyst
Deloitte South Africa

Shuaib is a senior actuarial analyst at Deloitte South Africa’s Short Term Insurance Actuarial practice. Shuaib has over 4 years of actuarial consulting experience both locally and abroad. He has designed, maintained and enhanced various tools such as stochastic capital projection, reserving and pricing models for a range of clients, including Government bodies, Insurers and Motor manufacturers. He also has experience in the development of asset and liability matching tools for non-traditional insurance companies and optimisation models for TelCo companies. Shuaib has experience in a wide range of actuarial and risk modelling software platforms. He has performed numerous independent reviews, on a wide range of models. He serves on the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s Exposure Research Working Group.

  Francois Joubert

Managing Director
Kwanto

Dr. Francois Joubert is a self-employed project risk management specialist. He graduated as a mechanical engineer in 1994 and has since obtained a MEng (Technology Management), MBA and MPhil (Ethics). He completed a PhD titled "Risk simulation in a portfolio of port and rail capital projects" in which he described an @RISK based model and framework which can be used to determine the most important risks in a portfolio of projects. In addition to his role as risk specialist, he has extensive experience on the systems and processes related to project management, construction management, project controls and quality management. He is a part time Extraordinary Lecturer at the University of Pretoria and has been associated with the Nelson Mandela university since 2014.

  Logan Nair

Senior Manager: Business Improvement
Anglo American

Logan Nair is a Senior Manager: Business Improvement for Anglo American Platinum (AAP), Logan has 30 years’ experience in the mining industry and holds masters degrees in both mining and industrial engineering from Witwatersrand University. His areas of expertise are mineral resource management, mining engineering and business process re-engineering. Logan’s main function currently at AAP is to implement in-house business process framework (Anglo American Operating Model), The Operating Model is a critical part of the platinum business improvement and change strategy.

  Doug Oldfield

Sales Manager
Palisade EMEA & India

Doug Oldfield joined Palisade in 2008 and is responsible for sales and business development in the Middle East. In his 8 years at Palisade, Doug has worked extensively with clients in lots of different industries, and has good experience of modelling business risk and opportunity. Prior to joining Palisade, Doug worked 8 years at an IT recruitment company in London, and also managed various retail shops around the UK, including "The Busiest Shop in the World" (according to the Guinness Book of Records). Doug holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Politics and Philosophy from the University of Warwick in the UK.

  Jaco Van der Merwe

Director
Deloitte South Africa

Jaco is the director responsible for heading up the Short Term Insurance Actuarial practice for Deloitte in South Africa. Jaco has over 12 years of actuarial consulting experience and is the appointed statutory actuary to a number of Short Term Insurers both locally and abroad. He has also designed numerous software tools such as stochastic reserving, pricing and capital optimisation models for a range of clients, including Government bodies, Insurers, Medical Schemes, TelCo companies and Motor manufacturers. He serves on the Short Term Insurance Committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa and chairs the Professional Guidance subcommittee. He was involved in the syllabus development of the South Africa professional actuarial examinations and was previously an examiner for the South African actuarial fellowship exams. He often presents to professional bodies such as ASSA, SAICA and IISA on a wide range of topics including Solvency II/SAM/FCR, Avian Flu, Pricing, Reinsurance, Capital & Reserving and other regulatory matters.

Abstracts

  Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Managing Director, Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst’s toolbox. We'll also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  Modelling the Meaningful: A Stochastic Approach to Business Risk and Risk Management

Jaco Van der Merwe
Shauib Ghoor
Deloitte

Aim of the Presentation:

  1. Understand that there is always underlying risk: Operational Risk.
  2. How do we measure those "immeasurable risks"?
  3. Explore the power of @RISK and how it can be used to model uncertainty.

This presentation is based on an actual business case. It intends to be illustrative, practical and thought provoking. It is aligned with what we see in the industry and will show how you can benefit from @RISK.

  Theory of Constraint Modelling Aligned to Levels of Work for a Typical Open Cast Platinum Mine

Logan Nair
Anglo American

The Operating Model is enabling Anglo American to refocus its businesses to become more efficient and effective in a highly competitive, constantly changing global marketplace. The 3 basic themes of operating model are, produce stability (surprises happen and arise from unanticipated conditions and actions), reduce variation (performance below the potential) and provide clarity (theory to achieve the purpose). As a first step, to provide an understanding of the current status of the capability of the production processes, a Value Stream Map (VSM) provides a high level view of the key activities for both mining and processing at the open cast platinum mine. The value chain is modelled, paying attention to the key activities that transfer, transform and store material in order to assess the true capability and variability of these activities.

  Implementing Objectives-Based ERM using @RISK

Quinton van Eeden
TPG GRC

Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives and the recent revisions to the COSO and ISO 31000 risk management frameworks, reinforce the maxim that “risk is uncertainty that matters”.

The presentation will therefore explore the application of quantitative risk analysis techniques using @RISK to the achievement of corporate objectives within corporations in Malawi and Bahrain respectively.

  Evaluation of Stroke Prevention Medicine for Medical Aid Scheme

Aleksandra Beverin
Old Mutual Insure

An innovative medicine, which is used to prevent stroke, was launched by a global pharmaceutical company and introduced to South Africa in 2014. The model aim was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the new medicine vs the available generic medicine, from a Medical Scheme perspective. Medical Schemes are using a formulary (list of prescription medicines), which promotes the use of generic medicines, which are typically priced at a fraction of the innovative medicine.

An economic model using @RISK was adapted using the international, local and Medical Scheme data to evaluate the impact of stroke severity categories on clinical and economic outcomes. The @RISK model demonstrated the total clinical event costs avoided for the new medicine. This positive result facilitated the development of the stroke risk management program and the Medical Scheme’s pilot of the innovative medicine formulary listing.

  Lessons Learned During Risk Identification and Schedule Simulation when Building a Container Terminal

Francois Joubert
Kwanto

The discussion gives some practical answers to some questions which came up during the modelling of a project schedule, using @RISK. The questions include topics such as:

  • Which risks does one model and which ones not? And how does one keep track of this?
  • How does one model opportunities?
  • How does one model risks which may realise on various parts of the project, such as safety incidents?
  • What may cause suspect simulation results and how can this be treated?

Radisson Blu Gautrain Hotel

Cnr Rivonia Road and West Street
Sandton 2196
South Africa
tel. +27 (11) 286 1000
For more information, see the hotel website.

Palisade Corporation
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Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
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