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2018




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

May 17th, 2018 • New York City

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive half day risk and decision analysis conference. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry.

Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The program will also include practical software training presented by Palisade. We’ll explore the features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modeling and analysis accessible and powerful.

This event is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company


“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


Networking Opportunities

Mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. All networking events on the schedule are included with your complimentary registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2018 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis.

Information about 2018 Conferences

Schedule

Thursday 17 May 2018

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 8:30
Registration and Coffee
8:30 - 8:45
WELCOME REMARKS

Andrew Sich
Palisade Corporation

8:45 - 9:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

9:45 - 10:30
CASE STUDY

Balance Sheet FX Stress Test with @RISK
Jacinto Diaz Hache
J.P. Morgan Chase

10:30 - 10:45
Networking Break with Refreshments
10:45 - 11:30
CASE STUDY

Integrating Renewables into a Utility's Operations
Roy Nersesian
Monmouth University

11:30 - 12:15
12:15 - 1:00
1:00 - 1:15
Closing Remarks

Presenters

  Gabor Debreczeni

Senior Economist
Louis Berger

Gabor Debreczeni is an economic geographer and a Senior Economist with Louis Berger. He has experience with regional and urban economics, transportation planning, socioeconomic forecasting, as well as the development of probabilistic risk profile models. At Louis Berger, he has conducted Monte Carlo simulations with @RISK for toll revenue projects for the U.S. Department of Transportation, as well as for construction cost risk for the MTA. Prior to Louis Berger, Mr. Debreczeni worked in emerging markets finance. He holds degrees in economics and international development.

  Jacinto Diaz Hache

Senior Associate
J.P. Morgan Chase

Commodities Derivatives Sales Desk covering Latin American Markets

Participated in the @RISK module in Atlanta during February with Raul Castro

  Fernando Hernández

Senior Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Fernando Hernández' areas of expertise are banking, finance, manufacturing, project evaluation, market forecasting and pricing. Fernando currently owns and operates InfoMasters, a company geared towards training, consulting and developing financial applications and decision making models for financial and manufacturing companies, using Microsoft Office and Palisade software. He has developed and taught courses including Intro to Corporate Finance, and Financial Simulation and Investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has created financial models, risk analyses and feasibility studies using @RISK. Fernando earned his licentiate degree in Finance Administration from the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar, he completed his MBA at Indiana University majoring in Finance & MIS.

  Roy Nersesian

Professor
Monmouth University

Roy Nersesian is a professor in the Management and Decision Sciences Department at the Leon Hess Business School at Monmouth University in New Jersey. He authored Energy Risk Modeling published by Palisade Corporation, which was an outgrowth of his teaching energy modeling at Columbia University. He also authored Energy Economics published by Routledge, and is currently writing Utility Risk Modeling, which concentrates on integrating solar and wind power into a utility’s operations. The principal findings in this book is the subject matter of this presentation.

Abstracts

  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst's toolbox. We'll also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  Balance Sheet FX Stress Test with @RISK

Jacinto Diaz Hache
J.P. Morgan Chase

We will go over an @RISK model that looks at the balance sheet of a company with FX exposure. We will look at how a stress test on the FX rates impacts the balance sheet.

  Integrating Renewables into a Utility's Operations

Roy Nersesian
Monmouth University

While previous work on Palisade’s website includes integrating renewables into a utility’s energy portfolio, this session will cover new techniques/approaches such as modeling demand with Pert probability distributions that will allow the shape of the demand curve to vary within bounds during a simulation; use of RISKOptimizer to determine the optimal capacity of the solar and wind farms and natural gas plants; Excel’s normal function to create seasonal indices on a daily basis; and Excel’s trend analysis to convert energy content in a reservoir as a function of depth to depth as a function of energy content.

  Monte Carlo Simulations and Distributions in Evaluating Transportation Revenue and Cost Risks

Gabor Debreczeni
Louis Berger

Louis Berger uses @RISK as a key tool to evaluate the levels of uncertainty and range of probabilities related to demand forecasts for roads and transit systems as part of comprehensive due diligence processes. This discussion will provide an overview of the types of variables assessed and the way in which @RISK helps us accurately reflect the variability of possible outcomes while still providing useful demand estimates. The presenter will discuss the approach used to select the types and bounds of distributions for different variables / inputs to the forecast ranging from socioeconomic variables to proxies for human behavior; and how he uses the probabilistic outcomes and confidence interval results from @RISK Monte Carlo simulations to inform decision-making.

  Introduction to Optimization, Decision Trees, and Sensitivity Analysis using The DecisionTools Suite

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

Palisade's DecisionTools Suite package provides a number of different tools for risk and decision analysis. In addition to @RISK, popular tools in the set include TopRank, a powerful program which allows fast and easy sensitivity analysis on any Excel model, PrecisionTree which allows users to build decision trees for evaluating options, and Evolver/RISKOptimizer for building optimization models. In this presentation, we will look at some example models that demonstrate the capabilities of each of these tools.

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