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Palisade Training Workshop
RISK & DECISION ANALYSIS
July 18, 2017 - Sydney








Palisade Training Workshop

Risk and Decision Analysis

July 18th, 2017 • Sydney

Intensive Risk and Decision
Analysis Training Workshop

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day Risk and Decision Analysis Training Workshop in Sydney on Tuesday, 18th July.

This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. This workshop is designed for anyone who performs risk analysis as part of their work, with all industries and modelling requirements catered to.

The programme includes training sessions run by expert Palisade consultants Rishi Prabhakar and Gustavo Vinueza. Palisade consultants will present a wide range of topics, including the practical application of optimisation, using NeuralTools to make Intelligent predictions from incomplete data, and advanced @RISK techniques. Participants will work on models along with the trainer to understand how quantitative techniques like Monte Carlo Simulation and Optimisation can apply to any business decision making problem involving uncertainty.

Also, industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a range of business applications.

The charge to attend this event is AUD $70/participant and includes a 3-month standalone license of DecisionTools Suite Industrial v7.5.

Refreshments and a lunch break are provided during the course of the day.

The event promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.


Register Now

This event has filled.

If you are interested in a similar event in the future, or to discuss other opportunities, please contact:

Duncan Hickman
dhickman@palisade.com
Business Development Manager
+61 2 9252 5922, 1 800 177 101

Schedule

Tuesday 18 July 2017

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:10
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Duncan Hickman
Palisade Corporation

9:10 - 9:50
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Project Portfolio Management and Risk Registers
Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

9:50 - 10:30
10:30 - 11:00
Networking Break
11:00 - 11:30
CASE STUDY

Estimating the Value of Private Companies using NeuralTools
James O'Brien
PricewaterhouseCoopers

11:30 - 12:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Using Efficient Frontier to Make Best Use of Your Resources
Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

12:00 - 12:45
Networking Lunch
12:45 - 1:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Practical Applications of Optimisation
Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

1:45 - 2:30
2:30 - 3:00
Networking Break
3:00 - 3:45
3:45 - 4:25
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Tips and Tricks for @RISK
Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

4:25 - 5:25
Closing Remarks and Networking Reception

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

Presenters

  Pedram Danesh-Mand

Director - Risk Management
Aquenta

With a successful record of executive positions with high profile companies and as an industry innovation award winner, Pedram has contributed to a number of major projects across Australia and overseas. Pedram is currently the national director of risk with Aquenta (a Jacobs Company). Prior to this, Pedram was Head of Planning & Risk with UGL Engineering in a wide range of projects across Transport, Water, Power Generation, Power Systems, Coal, Oil & Gas.

Pedram is an innovation award winner from Road and Maritime Services (RMS) and CPB Contractors for his exceptional knowledge and practical application of statistical analysis and the Primavera system in analysing project risks and schedules. He has been the NSW President of Risk Engineering Society (RES) since 2013 and is the key author of RES Contingency Guideline which been published by EA in May 2016. Pedram is also a lecturer of Advanced Project Risk Management to postgraduate students in University of Technology Sydney, (UTS).

  Duncan Hickman

Australia and New Zealand Regional Sales Manager
Palisade Corporation

Duncan Hickman is responsible for looking after customers and growing new business for Palisade throughout Australia and New Zealand. Prior to joining Palisade, Duncan consulted on business structure and growth strategies for software products in financial services, sustainability, energy efficiency and the growing carbon trading market. Duncan is an accredited equities and derivatives adviser with several years of experience in the financial services sector, including the establishment and sale of an online financial services company.

  James O'Brien

Director - Corporate Value Advisory
PricewaterhouseCoopers

James started his career as an officer in the Australian Army where he had the pleasure of jumping out of serviceable aircraft and rendering safe unexploded ordnance. Having gained a Master of Science in Operations Research and Statistics at the Australian Defence Force Academy he decided to make the transition into corporate life by undertaking an MBA at the Australian Graduate School of Management. He was recruited by the Australian office of Stern Stewart & Co, a global corporate finance consultancy focused on value, and then 8 years ago became a member of PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Corporate Value Advisory team in Sydney.

  Rishi Prabhakar

Trainer and Consultant
Palisade Corporation

Rishi brings a broad range of experience and expertise to the Palisade team. He has worked in and consulted to the energy industry, telecommunications, scientific research, banking and finance with an emphasis on operational risk and Basel II. Rishi has expert skills in the areas of statistical analysis, simulation, time series forecasting, risk/capital modelling, extreme value theory, survey design and analysis. He holds a BSc Mathematics from the University of Technology, Sydney.

  Gustavo Vinueza

Trainer and Consultant
Palisade Corporation

Gustavo Vinueza is a Systems Engineer with more than 16 years of experience consulting for companies in finance & banking, telecommunications, insurance, and IT related services. Gustavo has worked with Palisade since 2011 as a Training Consultant and in the last year as Director of Custom Solutions. He earned his MBA from Torcuato Di Tella University in Argentina and a MS in Finance from Adolfo Ibáñez University in Chile. His main focuses are in financial and operational modeling, including scientific and academic research into business practice as well as data mining related matters.

His experience includes managing project portfolios (both operational and IT related), cost reduction programs, public purchases bidding, operational controls, capacity analysis, audit processes and software development projects, beside technological infrastructure implementation. He has also earned diplomas in Project Management, Usability, Business Process Management and Business Analytics.

Abstracts

  Intro to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis

Duncan Hickman
Palisade Corporation

We will open the conference with a brief overview of Palisade, and then address the question you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Project Portfolio Management and Risk Registers

Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

In this session we will explore how Palisade creates a portfolio solution incorporating risk registers for enterprise wide deployment using the custom runtime environment. Palisade Custom Runtime (PCR) is a programming toolkit for adding the power of @RISK and The DecisionTools Suite functionality to any Windows application.

  Application of StatTools and TopRank: The Non-Probabilistic Side of The DecisionTools Suite

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

Rishi will show how TopRank can extract information about correlation and exposure without making probabilistic assumptions. Learn how to use StatTools to describe data graphically and statistically, and perform common analyses – regression, forecasting etc.

  Estimating the Value of Private Companies using NeuralTools

James O'Brien
PricewaterhouseCoopers

With the surge (or resurgence) of interest in machine learning tools such as neural nets, James wanted to apply this approach to the valuation of private companies. While the value of publicly listed companies at a point in time is indicated by share price, valuing private companies requires a detailed analysis of future cash-flows which is difficult and subject to bias. Can an estimate of the value of private companies be inferred from public company data? James will discuss the application of NeuralTools to this problem. The discussion should interest those who care about value, private equity, or as a machine learning technique which is accessible to anyone comfortable with Excel.

  Using Efficient Frontier to Make Best use of Resources

Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

It is possible to analyse trade-offs between two quantities in an optimisation problem using Efficient Frontiers. This presentation will include a demonstration of how to optimise a portfolio to maximise profit while minimising risk. With efficient frontiers, you can greatly enhance the performance of any portfolio.

  Practical Applications of Optimisation

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

Applying optimisation to your business can produce excellent returns on your invested time and money. Allocating staff to tasks to maximise team performance, or optimising a mitigation portfolio are two such applications. Rishi will show several optimisation problems framed in different ways – for example maximising an outcome for a fixed budget, or hitting a target most cheaply.

  Schedule Cost Risk Analysis for a Recent Major Transport Project at the FBC phase by using @RISK

Pedram Danesh-Mand
Aquenta

Contingencies for risk are an aggregate value made up of threats (which may add cost) and opportunities (which may reduce cost). In preparing estimates for capital works, it is also important to recognise that there are many situations where the inputs to the cost estimate are variable i.e. they may be less than or greater than that estimated.

Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) captures the risk and uncertainties that schedule durations may increase from technical challenges, lack of qualified personnel, lower productivity rates and resource uncertainties to perform the work. SRA examines the effect of activities and events slipping on a project’s critical path through the Schedule Model. Through a similar approach, Cost Risk Analysis (CRA) examines the uncertainties and risk events to the project and specifies how they may affect the project costs. The main purpose of CRA is to capture uncertainty in cost estimate methodology, technical parameters, schedule uncertainty, and programmatic factors in order to move the deterministic point estimate to a probabilistic estimate.

This presentation will discuss the above mentioned processes and tools, including @Risk, used in determination of contingency allowance for a recent multi-billion major transport project in Australia. It will also present audience how the undertaken approach could provide the project team with additional results including the relative importance of each risk in determining the overall project cost and schedule for their effective and efficient decision making.

  Modelling with Neural Networks: How to Get Meaningful Results from Apparently Disparate Data Sets

Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

An active demonstration of how NeuralTools can be applied to a wide range of data to give forecasts and predictions with high levels of accuracy. NeuralTools is a sophisticated data mining application that uses neural networks in Microsoft Excel. Examples include: Credit Scoring, Medicine and Crop Diseases forecasting.

  Tips and Tricks for @RISK

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

While many of the common features of @RISK have been explored in depth, there are some advanced and underutilised features that can add a lot of value to your modelling. This session will explain a number, including; fitting distributions to output simulation data, custom reporting, filtering, and storing simulation data.

UNSW CBD Campus

 

Level 6, 1 O'Connell Street
Sydney CBD
NSW 2000, Australia
tel. 02 9931 9451
For more information, see the venue website.

Palisade Corporation
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