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Palisade Training Workshop
RISK & DECISION ANALYSIS
November 23, 2017 - Stockholm








Palisade Training Workshop

Risk and Decision Analysis

November 23rd, 2017 • Stockholm

Intensive Risk and Decision
Analysis Training Workshop

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day Risk and Decision Analysis Training Workshop in Stockholm on Thursday, 23rd November.

This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk or decision making under uncertainty in any industry. This workshop is designed for anyone who performs risk analysis as part of their work, or deals with modelling situations where there is uncertainty, and there will be applicability to all industries and modelling requirements.

The programme includes training sessions run by Dr. Niklas Lampenius, who will present several sessions on quantitative modeling using @RISK, including an introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation, financial modeling, selecting the right distribution, risk registers, sensitivity analysis, project risk, and optimization. Participants will work on models along with the trainer to understand how quantitative techniques like Monte Carlo simulation and optimization can apply to any business decision making problem involving uncertainty.

The charge to attend this event is GBP £150. Registration includes a 2-month standalone license of the full DecisionTools Suite Industrial software.

Refreshments and a lunch break are provided during the course of the day.

The event promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.


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Schedule

Thursday 23 November 2017

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:45 - 9:15
Registration and Coffee
9:15 - 10:00
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Will van der Merwe
Palisade Corporation

10:00 - 11:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Project Cost and Schedule Uncertainty with @RISK
Niklas Lampenius
Palisade Corporation

11:00 - 11:15
Networking Break
11:15 - 12:30
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Financial and Insurance Modelling with @RISK
Niklas Lampenius
Palisade Corporation

12:30 - 13:30
Networking Lunch
13:30 - 14:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Selecting the Right Distribution
Niklas Lampenius
Palisade Corporation

14:00 - 14:45
CASE STUDY

TBA

14:45 - 15:00
Networking Break
15:00 - 15:30
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Making Risk Registers with @RISK
Niklas Lampenius
Palisade Corporation

15:30 - 16:30
16:30 - 17:30
Closing Remarks and Networking Reception

Will van der Merwe
Palisade Corporation

Presenters

  Niklas Lampenius

Instructor
University of Hohenheim

Dr. Niklas Lampenius currently holds a position as post-doctoral research assistant at the department of accounting and finance at the University of Hohenheim and works as instructor for the MBA-program at the FOM (University of Applied Science) in Munich, where he is in charge of the finance specialization. After having received a master's degree in psychology from the University of Eichstätt in Germany and a MBA degree from Bowling Green State University (Ohio , USA) he completed his doctorate degree in finance in 2008 at the Universität der Bundeswehr in Munich, Germany. His research interests include areas of regulatory efficiency, corporate finance, valuation, risk management, behavioral finance, and individual decision making.

  William Van der Merwe

Business Development Manager
Palisade EMEA

William Van der Merwe looks after business development for Palisade much of the African region. Prior to Palisade he worked in a Management Consulting capacity for McLagan, London, where he provided Performance Benchmarking services for the larger UK insurance companies. He spent a number of years at Aon in London, in various Reporting, Regulatory, and Project roles, incorporating Sarbanes-Oxley and Fiduciary accounting among other aspects. Will is originally South African but has been based in London for the last 9 years. He is ACCA qualified; and obtained his post graduate degree in Economics and Corporate Finance from The University of KwaZulu-Natal.

Abstracts

  Intro to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis


Will van der Merwe
Palisade Corporation

We will open the conference with a brief overview of Palisade, and then address the question you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Project Cost and Schedule Uncertainty


Niklas Lampenius
Palisade Corporation

In this session we will look at the role probabilistic quantitative analysis plays in Project Management, focussing on costs and risk events. We will discuss the concept of contingency, and introduce a mathematically correct approach to modelling risk registers.

We will aslso showcase @RISK's interface with MS Project via Excel to enable the modelling of schedule uncertainty. We will cover some of the uniques aspects of this modelling; variable start dates and durations, probabilistic Gantt charts and the Critical Index.

  Financial Insurance Modelling with @RISK


Niklas Lampenius
Palisade Corporation

This session is an introduction to the fundamentals of @RISK, using a Discounted Cash Flow model as the basis. This includes inserting input distributions and output functions to the spreadsheet, running a simulation, and then generating graphs and reports. We will discuss the interpretation of these Monte Carlo Simulation results, and describe the more advanced work that is possible. Following on from this we will work with an example from the Insurance industry modelling claims, highlighting the special functionality necessary to accurately represent such applications.

  Selecting the Right Distribution


Niklas Lampenius
Palisade Corporation

This session will look at the most popular distributions in @RISK. A variety of techniques for choosing the right distribution for your needs will be discussed and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions; discrete, continuous and a combination of both, to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.

  Making Risk Registers with @RISK

Niklas Lampenius
Palisade Corporation

Quantitative risk registers are something which can be added to any model, but are fundamentally about modelling likelihood (or frequency) and severity, and then combining them. This session will give attendees the opportunity to build one themselves from scratch.

Take outs will include:

  • Understanding why the average is a risky way to model risk
  • How to choose a distribution to model event risk
  • Why building a conditional risk register is the only theoretically sound way of modeling event risk
  • How to combine likelihood and severity using RiskMakeInput and RiskCompound

  Sensitivity Analysis with TopRank, decision analysis with PrecisionTree, and optimisation with RISKOptimizer


Niklas Lampenius
Palisade Corporation

This session will look at some of the companion tools that are available alongside @RISK within the DecisionTools Suite. First of all we'll take a look at TopRank, a very quick, yet powerful, tool which allows you to find key drivers in any model. It's also a very popular tool for auditing models to make sure they're behaving as expected. This will be followed by a look at PrecisionTree, a tool which allows you to quickly build up decision trees to guide strategy choices in the face of different options. Finally, the session will give an overview of RISKOptimizer, the software which utilises the power of @RISK to optimise under uncertain conditions - stochastic optimisation.

Radisson Blu Royal Park Hotel

 

Frösundviks allé 169 70 Solna
T: 08-624 55 20
For more information, see the hotel website.

Palisade Corporation
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