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Palisade Training Workshop
RISK & DECISION ANALYSIS
October 18, 2017 - Seoul








Palisade Training Workshop

Risk and Decision Analysis

October 18th, 2017 • Seoul

Intensive Risk and Decision
Analysis Training Workshop

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day Risk and Decision Analysis Training Workshop in Seoul on Wednesday, 18th of October.

귀하를 10월 18일 수요일 서울에서 개최되는 Palisade Risk and Decision Analysis Training Workshop 에 초대합니다.

This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. This workshop is designed for anyone who performs risk analysis as part of their work, with all industries and modelling requirements catered to.

이번 행사는 모든 산업분야에서 리스크 업무를 수행하는 전문가들을 위한 “필수 참석” 이벤트입니다. 이 워크숍은 업무의 일부분으로 리스크 분석을 수행하는 담당자들에게 유익하도록 기획되었습니다.

The programme includes training sessions run by Rishi Prabhakar and Duncan Hickman of Palisade. They will present several sessions on quantitative modeling using @RISK, including an introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation, insurance and financial modeling, and how to choose the right distribution. We will also look at other components of the DecisionTools Suite, including PrecisionTree, Evolver, and RISKOptimizer. Participants will work on models along with the trainer to understand how quantitative techniques like Monte Carlo Simulation and Optimization can apply to any business decision making problem involving uncertainty.

이 행사에는 Palisade 전문 컨설턴트인 Rishi Prabhakar와 Duncan Hickman이 진행하는 교육 세션이 포함되어 있습니다. Palisade 컨설턴트는 최적화의 실질적인 적용 방법, 불완전 데이터로부터 합리적인 예측을 위한 NeuralTools의 활용, 고급 @RISK기능 등을 포함하는 다양한 주제를 제공합니다. 참석자는 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션과 최적화와 같은 정량적인 테크닉을 불확실성을 포함하고 있는 모든 비즈니스 의사결정 문제에 어떻게 적용할 수 있는지를 트레이너와 함께 실습을 해 볼 수 있습니다.

Also, industry experts will present real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a range of business applications.

또한 각 산업분야 전문가들이 비즈니스상의 불확실성을 고려하여 리스크를 분석하고 의사결정에 어떻게 활용하고 있는지에 대한 실제 사례를 보실 수 있습니다.

The charge to attend this event is AUD $50/participant and includes a 3-month standalone license of DecisionTools Suite Industrial v7.5.

본 워크숍의 참가비는 50,000원이며(VAT별도) DecisionTools Suite Industrial 을 3개월 사용할 수 있는 교육용 라이선스가 무료로 제공됩니다.

Refreshments and a lunch break are provided during the course of the day.

참석자의 편의를 위해서 다과와 점심 식사(뷔폐)가 무료로 제공됩니다.

The event promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

이 행사는 리스크 모델링에 대한 지식을 넓히고 다양한 산업 분야의 의사 결정 전문가와 네트워킹 할 수 있는 귀중한 기회가 될 것입니다. 관심 있는 분들은 빨리 신청해 주십시오. 수용인원이 40명인 관계로 조기 마감될 수 있습니다.

Schedule

Wednesday 18 October 2017

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:10
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Duncan Hickman
Palisade Corporation

9:10 - 10:10
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

10:10 - 10:50
10:50 - 11:10
Networking Break
11:10 - 11:50
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Project Cost and Schedule Uncertainty with @RISK
Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

11:50 - 12:40
12:40 - 1:30
Networking Lunch
1:30 - 2:10
CASE STUDY

Business Valuation using Monte Carlo Simulation
Jinsam Cho
MakeFutures Inc.

2:10-2:50
2:50 - 3:10
Networking Break
3:10 - 3:50
CASE STUDY

Residual Income Model using @RISK
Tae Sik Kim
KICPA

3:50 - 4:30
CASE STUDY

How to use @RISK in Various Applications
Dongju Jeon
Korea Game Planning Group

4:30 - 5:10
CASE STUDY

Key Considerations when using Simulation with @RISK
Kyunghyun Min
ERETEC Inc.

5:10 - 6:00
Close and Networking Reception

Presenters

  Jinsam Cho

CEO
MakeFutures Inc.

CEO of MakeFutures Inc. (Business valuation startup with simulation and artificial intelligence, www.MakeFutures.com)
Ph.D. candidate, Graduate School of Future Strategy in KAIST.

  Donghwan Han

President
PMinside

Ph.D. of Business Administration
Masters of Business Administration
Vice President of PMI South Korea Chapter

Certifications: PMP, PMI-RMP, PRINCE2 Practitioner

  Duncan Hickman

Australia and New Zealand Regional Sales Manager
Palisade Corporation

Duncan Hickman is responsible for looking after customers and growing new business for Palisade throughout Australia and New Zealand. Prior to joining Palisade, Duncan consulted on business structure and growth strategies for software products in financial services, sustainability, energy efficiency and the growing carbon trading market. Duncan is an accredited equities and derivatives adviser with several years of experience in the financial services sector, including the establishment and sale of an online financial services company.

  Dongju Jeon

Marketing Manager
Korea Game Planning Group

Manager of MK - Illumination Korea
Operator of Korea Game Planning Group

  Wooyong Jung

Yonsei University
Research Professor

Wooyong Jung was a team leader to take charge of reviewing risk and contingency for international proeject bid at SK E&C. He majored in risk management for Ph.D. at Yonsei University and studied more at UC Berkeley and Stanford University. Recently, he performed consulting services to improve international project risk management in KOGAS, K-water, Daerim E&C and Hyundae Engineering.

  Tae Sik Kim

Team Leader
KICPA

Korea Institute of Certified Public Accountants (KICPA) XBRL team leader
Samil Accounting Corporation
Korea Accounting Standards Board

  Kyunghyun Min

Manager
ERETEC Inc.

Manager of ERETEC Inc.
Ph.D. course of Hanyang University
Masters of Business Administration

  Rishi Prabhakar

Trainer and Consultant
Palisade Corporation

Rishi brings a broad range of experience and expertise to the Palisade team. He has worked in and consulted to the energy industry, telecommunications, scientific research, banking and finance with an emphasis on operational risk and Basel II. Rishi has expert skills in the areas of statistical analysis, simulation, time series forecasting, risk/capital modelling, extreme value theory, survey design and analysis. He holds a BSc Mathematics from the University of Technology, Sydney.

Abstracts

  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst’s toolbox. We'll also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  How to Improve Efficiency of Project Schedule Management using @RISK

Donghwan Han
PMinside

» Download the presentation

The project always predicts the future, so it is difficult to finish it exactly within the desired schedule. When developing a schedule, it is difficult to accurately describe the likelihood of ending within the schedule, although the schedule is developed taking into account the risks of the project. One of the difficulties in project management is scheduling. In this presentation, we will look at how to develop project schedules considering risks, and how to use @RISK to increase the likelihood of ending in a schedule by stochastic approach to the project schedule.

  Project Cost and Schedule Uncertainty with @RISK

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

In this session we will look at the role probabilistic quantitative analysis plays in Project Management, focussing on costs and risk events. We will discuss the concept of contingency, and introduce a mathematically correct approach to modelling risk registers.

We will also showcase @RISK's interface with MS Project via Excel to enable the modelling of schedule uncertainty. We will cover some of the unique aspects of this modelling; variable start dates and durations, probabilistic Gantt charts and the Critical Index.

  Risk and Contingency Evaluation for International Construction Project

Wooyong Jung
Yonsei University

» Download the presentation

Any construction project, especially an international project, is fraught with a lot of risk. Unless you have a clear understanding of the risk and appropriate management, you will take unnecessary risks, which could lead to project loss. This presentation aims to introduce how to identify and evaluate project risk using @RISK program. This presentation also points out the wrong routines and calculation skills that many companies often commit.

  Business Valuation using Monte Carlo Simulation

Jinsam Cho
MakeFutures Inc.

» Download the presentation

DCF, Discounted Cash Flow, is a common way to evaluate any kinds of future business: However, its weakness lies in representing cash flow only with static numbers, which cannot show the variability of future risk. With actual cases, I proposed here applying Monte Carlo simulation to assuming future cash flow. This simulation based DCF presents more information on its future risk and additional usefulness in sensitivity analysis as well.

  Introduction to Optimization, Decision Trees, and Sensitivity Analysis using The DecisionTools Suite

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

Palisade's DecisionTools Suite package provides a number of different tools for risk and decision analysis. In addition to @RISK, popular tools in the set include TopRank, a powerful program which allows fast and easy sensitivity analysis on any Excel model, PrecisionTree which allows users to build decision trees for evaluating options, and Evolver/RISKOptimizer for building optimisation models. In this presentation, we will look at some example models that demonstrate the capabilities of each of these tools.

  Residual Income Model using @RISK

Tae Sik Kim
KICPA

» Download the presentation

This session will present how to use @RISK to solve problems when applying Residual Income Model in practice.

  How to use @RISK in Various Applications

Dongju Jeon
Korea Game Planning Group

» Download the presentation

This session will present how to use @RISK in various application such as mobile game industry, Marine ocean and project Schedule management.

  Key Considerations When Using Simulations with @RISK

Kyunghyun Min
ERETEC Inc.

» Download the presentation

It is important to increase the reliability of the simulation results. In this presentation, we would like to talk about the considerations that should be taken to improve the reliability of the results when performing simulation using @RISK.

The-K Hotel Seoul I 70

Baumoe-ro 12-gil
Seocho-gu, Seoul
tel. 82-2-571-8100
For more information, see the venue website.

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