Thursday 20 April 2017
Schedule is subject to change without notice.
Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day Risk and Decision Analysis Training Workshop in Mumbai on Thursday, 20th April.
This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. This workshop is designed for anyone who performs risk analysis as part of their work, with all industries and modelling requirements catered to.
The programme includes a hands-on training workshop run by expert Palisade trainer and consultant Rishi Prabhakar. While mainly using common examples such as project cost estimation and discounted cash flow models, all participants will work on models along with the trainer to understand how quantitative techniques like Monte Carlo Simulation and Optimisation can apply to any business decision making problem involving uncertainty.
Also, industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a range of business applications.
The charge to attend this event is GBP 65/participant and includes a 3-month standalone license of DecisionTools Suite Industrial v7.5.
Please note laptops are not provided by Palisade. All participants are required to bring their own laptops with a working copy of the software, if they would like to follow along. Refreshments and a lunch break are provided during the course of the day.
The event promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.
Schedule is subject to change without notice.
Aman joined Palisade towards the end of 2012 with a focus on growing the business for Palisade software and training services in India. During the last two years, Palisade has had considerable success in terms of winning new key customers on both the academic and industry side of the business in India. Aman holds a Bachelor of Engineering from Gulbarga University and also completed a Post Graduate Diploma in Capital and Financial Markets from Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, New Delhi. Having passed CFA Level 1 in 2010, he is also studying towards the next level of this certification.
Divya is an Actuarial Manager at Kotak General Insurance, established in 2015. She joined the company in 2016 where she has been primarily involved in technical pricing of health and other insurance products and their regulatory filings. She also assists in analysis of health portfolio across different rating factors and cohorts using SAS.
Prior to this, Divya has worked with Aon Hewitt (1.5 years) and Towers Watson (3 years) as an Employee Benefits and Pensions Consultant, where she performed and reviewed the actuarial valuations of Defined Benefit and long term employee benefit plans using pension modelling software. She also provided actuarial advice to large Indian companies and their auditors on Accounting and Funding of their schemes under Indian and International accounting standards.
She is a Graduate in Statistics from Ramnarain Ruia College, Mumbai University and has completed all the actuarial exams leading to fellowship from the Institute of Actuaries of India.
Prof. Pankaj Dutta is an Associate Professor of Shailesh J. Mehta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, India in the field of Quantitative Methods and Operations Research (Decision Sciences). He received his Ph.D. degree from Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India. Before joining SJMSOM, he has served as a Lecturer at Birla Institute of Technology and Science Pilani, Rajasthan. He has also worked as Visiting Fellow at EPFL, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland and Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany. His current areas of research interest include Supply Chain Optimization, Retail Inventory Management, Reverse Logistics, Project Management and Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty. He is also interested in Business Simulation, Fuzzy set theory and its application to Industrial Engineering & Management. Prof. Dutta has more than 40 publications in various international journals, book chapters and conferences. He is also a reviewer of many reputed international journals.
Rishi brings a broad range of experience and expertise to the Palisade team. He has worked in and consulted to the energy industry, telecommunications, scientific research, banking and finance with an emphasis on operational risk and Basel II. Rishi has expert skills in the areas of statistical analysis, simulation, time series forecasting, risk/capital modelling, extreme value theory, survey design and analysis. He holds a BSc Mathematics from the University of Technology, Sydney.
We will open the conference with a brief overview of Palisade, and then address the question you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?
This session is an introduction to the fundamentals of @RISK, using a Discounted Cash Flow model as the basis. This includes inserting input distributions and output functions to the spreadsheet, running a simulation, and then generating graphs and reports. We will discuss the interpretation of these Monte Carlo Simulation results, and describe the more advanced work that is possible. Following on from this we will work with an example from the Insurance industry modelling claims, highlighting the special functionality necessary to accurately represent such applications.
In this session we will look at the role probabilistic quantitative analysis plays in Project Management, focussing on costs and risk events. We will discuss the concept of contingency, and introduce a mathematically correct approach to modelling risk registers.
We will also showcase @RISK's interface with MS Project via Excel to enable the modelling of schedule uncertainty. We will cover some of the unique aspects of this modelling; variable start dates and durations, probabilistic Gantt charts and the Critical Index.
This case study will be regarding the pricing methodology of a Health Insurance product which has been done using @RISK. It will include techniques to analyse data such as fitting the data in statistical distributions and performing simulation exercise under different scenarios. We will also include simulations under compound distribution in order to suit our requirement of adjusting the shape of the claim distribution curve and include high claim amounts in the simulation results.
A concise introduction to these two very useful tools. With TopRank we will perform deterministic sensitivity analyses on spreadsheet models, creating tornado charts and spider graphs. TopRank can even find the inputs for you! Decision trees are a great tool for visualising complex decision problems and analysing them. PrecisionTree gives you the power to easily build them in Excel and produce Policy Suggestions and Risk Profiles.
In this session we will explore the idea of how to make optimal decisions for your business. Whether you are maximising profit with a fixed budget, minimising logistics costs, or working out where to locate cell phone towers, Evolver and RISKOptimizer can help you make these decisions and more. By operating on your spreadsheets, practically any decision can be optimised; Evolver solves deterministic problems, while RISKOptimizer provides optimal decisions under uncertainty.
The supply chain is arguably the most important aspect in ensuring that the customers get the correct product in the correct quantity at the correct location. The costs associated with the supply chain forms a major portion of the total cost and so, any cost savings in the supply chain is very significant. The supply chain of perishable products becomes more complex as compared to traditional supply chain due to the diminishing value of the products. Also, most supply chain studies assume transportation links and facilities will not fail. However, in reality, transportation links and facilities are subject to various sorts of disruptions.
We have considered real life case study from the milk industry that aims to solve the problem of supply chain network design which involves in determining the facility locations and distribution planning that would minimise the total cost of the supply chain considering disruptions. The modelling is done in @RISK software which considers both demand and process uncertainty (which is incorporated through random disruptions in the transportation link), simultaneously. We have also presented an extensive statistical analysis, again, using @RISK and each outcome was analysed. The observation made is that the resilient model with disruptions and the disruption free model yielded different results.