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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
April 27, 2017 London
2017
2017




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

April 27th, 2017 • London

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day conference in London. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore the features in @RISK and The DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis accessible and powerful.

This event is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company


“Very impressive and good chance to link with colleagues.”

Michael Pemberton, Operations Research Analyst, Pueblo Community College (ret.)


“Excellent conference. Very informative. Great topics.”

Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk Management at CenterPoint Energy


“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


“Another great conference - well done! It's always a stimulating and thought-provoking experience, and great hospitality.”

Michael Brand, Captum Capital

Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer two types of sessions to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Networking Opportunities – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. All networking events on the schedule are included with your complimentary registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2017 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2017 include Mumbai, London, Moscow, Singapore, and Jakarta.

Information about 2017 Conferences

Schedule

8:30 - 9:30
Registration and Coffee
9:30 - 9:45
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri, Palisade Managing Director
Palisade Corporation

9:45 - 10:55
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

10:55 - 11:15
Networking Break
11:15 - 12:00
12:00 - 12:45
CASE STUDY

Generating combined cost and schedule risk analysis
Jerry Uren
QinetiQ Ltd.

12:45 - 13:45
Networking Lunch
13:45 - 14:30
14:30 - 15:15
CASE STUDY

Advanded Valuations
Fernando Scarpati
Business Valuation International Ltd.

15:15 - 15:30
Networking Break
15:30 - 16:15
CASE STUDY

Net Present Value Risk Models for Projects
Martin Hopkinson
Risk Management Capability Ltd.

16:15 - 17:00
Closing Remarks and Networking Reception

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Presenters

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  Martin Hopkinson

Director
Risk Mangement Capability Ltd.

Martin Hopkinson is the Director of Risk Mangement Capability Ltd. and has 30 years experience as a project manager, risk management specialist and consultant. His experience has been gained across a wide variety of industries and engineering disciplines and includes multi-billion pound projects and programmes. Martin has contributed to the development of Association for Project Management (APM) professional guidance mamnuals in the fields of both risk management and project governance. He is also the author of two books: The Project Risk Maturity Model and Net Present Value and Risk Modelling for Projects.

  Rishi Prabhakar

Trainer and Consultant
Palisade Corporation

Rishi brings a broad range of experience and expertise to the Palisade team. He has worked in and consulted to the energy industry, telecommunications, scientific research, banking and finance with an emphasis on operational risk and Basel II. Rishi has expert skills in the areas of statistical analysis, simulation, time series forecasting, risk/capital modelling, extreme value theory, survey design and analysis. He holds a BSc Mathematics from the University of Technology, Sydney.

  Fernando Scarpati

Managing Partner
Business Valuation International Ltd.

Managing Partner at Business Valuation International Ltd. (BVint) (www.businessvaluationintl.com) and Managing Director at Phimpact Investment Fund. Fernando founded BVint in 2012 as a response to the financial crisis partly driven by the lack of accurate risk assessment in valuation practices. With more than 25 years’ experience in Valuation, Private Equity Deals, M&A, portfolio management, risk assessment and strategy (holding a PhD / DBA in Valuation "The Determinants of the Risk-Premium in PE Investments"). He started his career in a top tier consulting firm continuing as Investment Director and Financial Service Director in important groups and PEs. He also holds an MBA, an Industrial Engineer degree and Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Business. As visiting Professor of the Roehampton business school and Politecnico of Milan, he wrote many international articles in top financial journals and he is regularly interviewed by the Swiss Financial TV.

  Jerry Uren

Management Consultant
QinetiQ Ltd.

Jerry Uren is a Management Consultant in QinetiQ Advisory Services where he has used costs and schedule risk analysis to underpin a range of consulting assignments for the UK Ministry of Defence and Industry. Prior to joining QinetiQ last year, he worked as an analyst in the Defence Science & Technology Laboratory (Dstl) where his last role was working in RAF’s Headquarters providing advice on the current and future capability requirements including using cost and schedule risk analysis. Whilst at Dstl he worked on a number of cost benefit analysis studies for Defence capabilities. He has an MBA from the Open University.

  Simon Waters

Engineer
National Grid

Simon Waters has a keen interest in systems Engineering with particular focus on operational, economic and performance enhancement. Simon’s early career started with a 4 year Engineering apprenticeship in the airline industry where he then worked as a Technician for several years before leaving to attending Warwick University.

Simon studied Engineering at Warwick and joined National Grid in 1991 after graduation. Simon has enjoyed a wide range of commercial, operational and Engineering roles with National Grid since then, working on both electricity and gas transmission systems over the last 25 years.

Abstracts

  Conference Welcome & Introduction

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Palisade General Manager Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst’s toolbox. We'll also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  Modelling Electricity Transmission Restoration Performance using @RISK

Simon Waters
National Grid

There is a tendency for communities to take for granted the reliable electricity supplies that are essential for so many aspects of today’s modern life. This is perhaps because major incidents resulting in partial or total system black-out are exceedingly rare. However, such events can occur across the globe, and each nations electricity industry parties must have robust restoration plans to cater for such an event. Performing live (real world) performance measurement of these restoration plans is not a sensible approach owing to the resulting disruption, safety and economic implications.

This project revolves around utilising @Risk probabilistic modelling techniques to simulate and measure GB network restoration performance for a wide range of scenarios using the key technical, operational and human factors associated with such an adverse set of circumstances. The results provide a credible set of performance measures against which pinch-points can be identified, investment decisions may be made or plans adapted to optimise deployment.

  Generating combined cost and schedule risk analysis

Jerry Uren
QinetiQ Ltd.

This presentation will build from the basics of defining cost and schedule in terms of baseline, uncertainty and risk. It will take the audience through the aggregation of cost and schedule Monte Carlo analysis in @RISK to consider the combined cost and schedule risk analysis. The presentation will review combined cost and schedule output and the interpretation of confidence levels through the application of @RISK. Finally, the presentation will observe the realization that 50% cost and 50% schedule confidence does not equate to a combined 50% confidence level.

  Introduction to Optimization, Decision Trees, and Sensitivity Analysis using The DecisionTools Suite

Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

Palisade's DecisionTools Suite package provides a number of different tools for risk and decision analysis. In addition to @RISK, popular tools in the set include TopRank, a powerful program which allows fast and easy sensitivity analysis on any Excel model, PrecisionTree which allows users to build decision trees for evaluating options, and Evolver/RISKOptimizer for building optimisation models. In this presentation, we will look at some example models that demonstrate the capabilities of each of these tools.

  Advanced Valuations

Fernando Scarpati
Business Valuation International Ltd.

Advanced Valuation Cases with stochastic risk assessments based on macro economy, market, strategy, technology, operative and financial variables. We identify and measure both external and internal risk-value drivers using Palisdade's @RISK and advanced probabilistic analysis. Traditional valuations are static (or non-stochastic) and therefore they are far from reflecting reality and not able to show the business flow and risks necessary for decision making. Today, all industry stakeholders increasingly view a proper measurement of private equity risks as necessary. Our DCF at risk methodology is able to show the flow of the business detailing the impact of each driver and the final value at risk (rNPV, VaR and VaR based on NAV volatility). We will show how decisions can improve significantly.

  Net Present Value Risk Models for Projects

Martin Hopkinson
Risk Management Capability Ltd.

A Net Present Value (NPV) forecast lies at the heart of the business case on many projects. This presentation shows how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to model the implications of project specific risk within an NPV model and identifies why this is beneficial to both business decisions and the project risk management process itself. The models used in the presentation can be downloaded from the Palisade web site and demonstrate how NPV risk forecasts can be produced and interpreted. They will also be used to show how project risks to costs and benefits can be prioritized using tornado charts and how choices between different project solutions can be supported.

London

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36-37 Bloomsbury Way
London
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For more information, see the hotel website.

Palisade Corporation
798 Cascadilla Street
Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
+1 607 277 8000
+1 607 277 8001 fax
sales@palisade.com
Palisade EMEA & India
+44 1895 425050
sales@palisade-europe.com
Palisade Asia-Pacific
+61 2 9252 5922
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www.palisade.com/jp/
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