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Palisade Training Workshop
RISK & DECISION ANALYSIS
October 24, 2017 - Istanbul








Palisade Training Workshop

Risk and Decision Analysis

October 24th, 2017 • Istanbul

Intensive Risk and Decision
Analysis Training Workshop

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day Risk and Decision Analysis Training Workshop in Istanbul on Thursday, 24th October.

This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. This workshop is designed for anyone who performs risk analysis as part of their work, with all industries and modelling requirements catered to.

The programme includes training sessions run by Quinton van Eeden of Palisade. He will present several sessions on quantitative modeling using @RISK, including an introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation, financial modeling, selecting the right distribution, risk registers, and sensitivity analysis. Participants will work on models along with the trainer to understand how quantitative techniques like Monte Carlo simulation and optimization can apply to any business decision making problem involving uncertainty.

The charge to attend this event is GBP £100. Registration includes a 2-month standalone license of the full DecisionTools Suite Industrial software.

Refreshments and a lunch break are provided during the course of the day.

The event promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.


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Schedule

Tuesday 24 October 2017

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

9:00 - 9:30
Registration and Coffee
9:30 - 9:45
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Sascha Stange
Palisade Corporation

9:45 - 11:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Building a Project Cost Estimate with @RISK
Quinton van Eeden
Palisade Corporation

11:00 - 11:15
Networking Break
11:15 - 12:30
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Making Risk Registers with @RISK
Quinton van Eeden
Palisade Corporation

12:30 - 13:15
Networking Lunch
13:15 - 14:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Financial Modeling with @RISK
Quinton van Eeden
Palisade Corporation

14:00 - 15:00
SOFTWARE DEMONSTRATION

Sensitivity Analysis with TopRank and decision analysis with PrecisionTree
Quinton van Eeden
Palisade Corporation

15:00 - 15:15
Networking Break
15:15 - 16:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Building optimisation models with RISKOptimizer
Quinton van Eeden
Palisade Corporation

16:00 - 17:00
Closing Remarks and Networking Reception

Sascha Stange
Palisade Corporation

Presenter

  Quinton van Eeden

Programme/Project Risk and Value Management Specialist
Palisade Corporation

Quinton is a decision analysis, quantitative risk analyst and value management specialist with more than 15 years’ experience in programme/project risk management. He is a lawyer by training and holds advanced level professional certifications in project- and project risk management. He specialises in project risk management and the application of quantitative analysis techniques to model and simulate the effect of uncertainty on project schedules and estimates.

  Sascha Stange

Regional Sales Manager
Palisade Corporation

Sascha Stange is Palisade's Sales Manager responsible for the D/A/CH region, BeNeLux, and Eastern Europe. He has 10+ years’ experience in selling software solutions for well-known companies. Sascha looks after Palisade`s customers in these regions to help them find the solution which best suits their specific needs in order to deliver the highest possible ROI.

Abstracts

  Intro to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis


Sascha Stange
Palisade Corporation

We will open the conference with a brief overview of Palisade, and then address the question you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Building a Project Cost Estimate with @RISK


Quinton van Eeden
Palisade Corporation

In this session attendees will learn how to put together a simple cost model using @RISK, learning about a number of important features along the way.

Take outs will include:

  • Understanding how to get the same results each time a simulation is run
  • How to use Excel cell references in a model, and why it is best practice to do so
  • Generating a histogram/ S-Curve and customising it for reports
  • Interpreting tornado graphs to understand key drivers in models
  • Using scatter plots as a sanity check on a model
  • Using confidence levels (percentiles) to quantify the likelihood of an outcome
  • Automatically generating meaningful information using the @RISK statistics functions
  • Calculating how much contingency needs to be added to a base estimate

  Making Risk Registers with @RISK


Quinton va Eeden
Palisade Corporation

Quantitative risk registers are something which can be added to any model, but are fundamentally about modelling likelihood (or frequency) and severity, and then combining them. This session will give attendees the opportunity to build one themselves from scratch.

Take outs will include:

  • Understanding why the average is a risky way to model risk
  • How to choose a distribution to model event risk
  • Why building a conditional risk register is the only theoretically sound way of modeling event risk
  • How to combine likelihood and severity using RiskMakeInput and RiskCompound

  Financial Modeling with @RISK


Quinton va Eeden
Palisade Corporation

Many organizational decisions involve making calculated risk / return judgements, evaluating and managing risk must therefore be an integral part of business activities. This session is an introduction to the fundamentals of @RISK using a probabilistic discounted cash flow -NPV model as the basis. This includes setting out the model logic, inserting input distributions and output functions to the spreadsheet, running a simulation, and then generating various graphs and reports. We will discuss the interpretation of these Monte Carlo simulation results, and describe the more advanced features such as assessing different scenarios with special functions.

  Senstitivity Analysis with TopRank and decision analysis with PrecisionTree


Quinton va Eeden
Palisade Corporation

This session will look at two of the companion tools that is available alongside @RISK within the DecisionTools Suite. First of all we’ll take a look at TopRank, a very quick, yet powerful, tool which allows you to find key drivers in any model. It’s also a very popular tool for auditing models to make sure they’re behaving as expected. This will be followed by a look at PrecisionTree, a tool which allows you to quickly build up decision trees to guide strategy choices in the face of different options.

  Building optimisation models with @RISK


Quinton va Eeden
Palisade Corporation

The final session will give an overview of RISKOptimizer, the software which utilises the power of @RISK to optimise under uncertain conditions – stochastic optimisation. This powerful tool has a number of different applications ranging from investment analysis and production planning through to project portfolio schedule analysis. This presentation will explore how the tool works, and the different options which are available, including Efficient Frontier analysis.

Intercontinental Istanbul

 

Asker Ocagi Cad No. 1
34435 Taksim
Istanbul, Turkey

tel. +90 212 368 4444
For more information, see the hotel website.

Palisade Corporation
798 Cascadilla Street
Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
+1 607 277 8000
+1 607 277 8001 fax
sales@palisade.com
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+61 2 9252 5922
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