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Palisade Training Workshop
RISK & DECISION ANALYSIS
August 23, 2017 - Hong Kong








Palisade Training Workshop

Risk and Decision Analysis

August 23rd, 2017 • Hong Kong

Intensive Risk and Decision
Analysis Training Workshop

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day Risk and Decision Analysis Training Workshop in Hong Kong on Wednesday, 23rd August.

This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. This workshop is designed for anyone who performs risk analysis as part of their work, with all industries and modelling requirements catered to.

The programme includes training sessions run by Manuel Carmona and Ji Zhou of Palisade. They will present several sessions on quantitative modeling using @RISK, including an introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation, insurance and financial modeling, and how to choose the right distribution. We will also look at other components of the DecisionTools Suite, including PrecisionTree, Evolver, and RISKOptimizer. Participants will work on models along with the trainer to understand how quantitative techniques like Monte Carlo Simulation and Optimization can apply to any business decision making problem involving uncertainty.

Also, an industry expert will present a real-world case study about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a range of business applications.

The charge to attend this event is AUD $100/participant and includes a 3-month standalone license of DecisionTools Suite Industrial v7.5.

Refreshments and a lunch break are provided during the course of the day.

The event promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Schedule

Wednesday 23 August 2017

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:30 - 9:30
Registration and Coffee
9:30 - 9:45
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri/Ji Zhou
Palisade Corporation

9:45 - 10:45
10:45 - 11:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Financial and Insurance Modelling with @RISK
Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

11:45 - 12:15
Networking Break
12:15 - 1:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Choosing the Right Distribution for your Model
Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

1:00 - 1:45
CASE STUDY

Short Forecasting Model and Regression Coefficients to Set Priorities using @RISK
Francesco Muggeri
STMicroelectronics Ltd

1:45 - 2:30
Networking Lunch
2:30 - 3:15
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Modelling a Decision with PrecisionTree
Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

3:15 - 4:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Optimization with Evolver and RISKOptimizer
Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

4:00- 4:10
Closing Remarks

Craig Ferri/Ji Zhou
Palisade Corporation

Presenters

  Manuel Carmona

Sales Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Manuel joined Palisade UK Ltd in 2003 as European sales director. He currently works with Palisade’s European customers to help them implement @RISK and other Palisade products in their organizations. He has spent most of his career in Europe working in various management and business development positions in the software industry. In 1994 he received a diploma in Computing for Commerce and Industry from the University of Barcelona, and an MBA from the University of Westminster in 2002.

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and recently into India. He is now looking forward taking responsibility for the Asia Pacific Region in 2017.

Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  Francesco Muggeri

Director of Marketing
STMicroelectronics Ltd

With 21 years of experience in R&D, Sales, Marketing and business roles within the semiconductor industry, Francesco has been successful in setting, executing and exceeding business goals from a Corporate, Product Division and regional perspective.

  Ji Zhou

Regional Sales & Business Development - China
Palisade Corporation

Ji Zhou joined Palisade in 2017 with a focus on growing the business for Palisade software and training services in the China market. This year, Palisade has had considerable success in terms of winning new key customers on both the academic and industry side of the business in the China market. Ji Zhou holds a Masters degree of Business and Management from Bradford University, United Kingdom.

Abstracts

  Intro to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis

Craig Ferri
Ji Zhou
Palisade Corporation

We will open the conference with a brief overview of Palisade, and then address the question you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Introduction to the Power of Monte Carlo Simulation in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Using @RISK

Manuel Carmona
Ji Zhou
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications for an entry-level introduction to @RISK to give you an excellent briefing on how to use and get the most from these tools and methodologies.

The session begins with a tutorial on @RISK, walking you through a trial risk analysis using various example models. Key features of @RISK will be highlighted. You will experience the intuitive interface of @RISK as you define distributions, correlations, and other model components. During simulation, you will be able to see all charts, thumbnails, and reports update in real time, and can view your results with a variety of graphing and reporting options. We’ll also point out useful tricks to make risk modeling even easier.

  Financial and Insurance Modelling with @RISK

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

This session is an introduction to the fundamentals of @RISK, using a Discounted Cash Flow model as the basis. This includes inserting input distributions and output functions to the spreadsheet, running a simulation, and then generating graphs and reports. We will discuss the interpretation of these Monte Carlo Simulation results, and describe the more advanced work that is possible. Following on from this we will work with an example from the Insurance industry modelling claims, highlighting the special functionality necessary to accurately represent such applications.

  Choosing the Right Distribution for your Model

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

This session will look at the most popular distributions in @RISK. A variety of techniques for choosing the right distribution for your needs will be discussed and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.

  Short Forecasting Model and Regression Coefficients to Set Priorities using @RISK

Francesco Muggeri
STMicroelectronics

Abstract coming soon.

  Modelling a Decision with PrecisionTree

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

A concise introduction to this very useful tool. Decision trees are a great tool for visualizing complex decision problems and analyzing them. PrecisionTree gives you the power to easily build them in Excel and produce Policy Suggestions and Risk Profiles.

  Optimization with Evolver and RISKOptimizer

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

In this session, we will explore the idea of how to make optimal decisions for your business. Whether you are maximizing profit with a fixed budget, minimizing logistics costs, or working out where to locate cell phone towers, Evolver and RISKOptimizer can help you make these decisions and more. By operating on your spreadsheets, practically any decision can be optimized; Evolver solves deterministic problems, while RISKOptimizer provides optimal decisions under uncertainty.

Renaissance Hong Kong

Renaissance Hong Kong Harbour View Hotel

1 Harbour Road
Wanchai
Hong Kong, China
tel. +852 280 28888
For more information, see the venue website.

Palisade Corporation
798 Cascadilla Street
Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
+1 607 277 8000
+1 607 277 8001 fax
sales@palisade.com
Palisade EMEA & India
+44 1895 425050
sales@palisade-europe.com
Palisade Asia-Pacific
+61 2 9252 5922
salesAP@palisade.com
Palisade アジア・
パシフィック東京事務所
+81 3 5456 5287 tel
sales.jp@palisade.com
www.palisade.com/jp/
Palisade Latinoamérica
+1 607 277 8000 x318
+54-1152528795  Argentina
+56-25813492     Chile
+507-8365675     Panamá
+52 55 5350 2852     México
+511-7086781     Perú
+57-15085187     Colombia
servicioalcliente@palisade.com
ventas@palisade.com
www.palisade-lta.com
Palisade Brasil
+55 (21) 3958 1443
+1 607 277 8000 x318 tel
vendas@palisade.com
www.palisade-br.com