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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
June 7, 2017 Columbus
2017
2017




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

June 7th, 2017 • Columbus

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive half day conference in Chicago. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry.

Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The program will also include practical software training presented by Palisade. We’ll explore the features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modeling and analysis accessible and powerful.

This event is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company


“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


Networking Opportunities

Mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. All networking events on the schedule are included with your complimentary registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2017 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2017 include Mumbai, London, Abu Dhabi, Moscow, Singapore, and Jakarta.

Information about 2017 Conferences

Schedule

Wednesday 7 June 2017

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:30 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:10
WELCOME REMARKS

Stephen Hunt
Palisade Corporation

9:10 - 9:55
CASE STUDY

Evaluating Plant Closure Options using @RISK
Timothy J. Havranek
Optima Analytics, Inc.

9:55 - 10:30
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Creating Probabilistic Risk Registers for Cost Estimation and Schedule Risk Analysis
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

10:30 - 11:00
Networking Break with Refreshments
11:00 - 11:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Project and Portfolio Analysis with DecisionTools Suite for R&D Projects
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

11:45 - 12:30

Presenters

  Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP

Principal
Optima Analytics, Inc.

Mr. Havranek is a Principal at Optima Analytics, Inc. Tim has over 30 combined years of experience in strategic planning and project management for the environmental remediation and oil and gas production industries. He specializes in the application of multi-criteria decision analysis and probabilistic modeling for a wide range of projects including remediation, restoration, decommissioning, sediment environmental restoration and alternative energy projects. He is a certified Project Management Professional (PMP) and author of the book Modern Project Management Techniques for the Environmental Remediation Industry.

  Fernando Hernández

Senior Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Fernando Hernández' areas of expertise are banking, finance, manufacturing, project evaluation, market forecasting and pricing. Fernando currently owns and operates InfoMasters, a company geared towards training, consulting and developing financial applications and decision making models for financial and manufacturing companies, using Microsoft Office and Palisade software. He has developed and taught courses including Intro to Corporate Finance, and Financial Simulation and Investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has created financial models, risk analyses and feasibility studies using @RISK. Fernando earned his licentiate degree in Finance Administration from the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar, he completed his MBA at Indiana University majoring in Finance & MIS.

  JD Solomon

Vice President
CH2M

JD Solomon is the Vice President with CH2M and serves as a senior consultant focusing on risk, reliability, and strategic decision making. Some of his areas of practice include infrastructure health and prognostics, financial management, operations and maintenance (O&M) optimization, and master planning. He is a Certified Reliability Engineer (CRE), Certified Maintenance and Reliability Professional (CMRP), is certified in Lean Management, and is a Six Sigma Black Belt. JD has a Professional Certificate in Strategic Decision and Risk Management from Stanford, an MBA from the University of South Carolina, and a BS Civil Engineering from NC State.

Abstracts

  Evaluating Plant Closure Options using @RISK

Timothy J. Havranek
Optima Analytics, Inc.

This business example uses asset disposition strategies to explore different options for a copper mine nearing the end of its useful life. Mr. Havranek will demonstrate how @RISK was used to create multiple probabilistic financial models and multi-criteria scores to represent three scenarios. The three scenarios include; closure in one year; continued operations for the next ten years and then closure; and the possibility of expanding mine operations. Some of the challenges that were encountered include uncertain future copper prices, ambiguous lease agreement language, community impacts, regulatory requirements, and long-term management of environmental impacts. In addition to the challenges throughout this complex process, performance measures. These performance measures include community acceptance, cleanup standards achieved, net present value, cash flow, and timeframe for site resolution. @RISK provided the ability to use multi-criteria decision analysis to evaluate all of the asset disposition strategies. The results showed that the best strategy not only had the highest multi-criteria score, but also provided a net present value savings of 10’s of millions of dollars over the next best strategy.

  Creating Probabilistic Risk Registers for Cost Estimation and Schedule Risk Analysis

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

We will show how @RISK can be used to model cost uncertainty and risk events that will affect total project cost. How to model cost ranges and risk registers through the use of probability distributions. We will also discuss how to measure correlation between variables, how to add a correlation matrix into a model, and the impact of correlation in a result. Once the simulation model is run, we will learn how to assess the contingency required and develop mitigation strategies.

  Project and Portfolio Analysis with DecisionTools Suite for R&D Projects

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

Using Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees and optimization algorithms in any company that heavily relies on R&D

The nature of a drug development project or any other type of project that heavily relies on R&D successes, is characterized by high attrition rates, large capital expenditures, and long timelines. This makes the valuation of such projects and companies a challenging task. Not all valuation methods can cope with these particularities. We will use some of the most commonly used valuation methods such as risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) and decision trees within the framework of the DecisionTools Suite to solve for these cases.

  Why Don't They Understand? Communicating Risk and Reliability to Decision Makers

JD Solomon
CH2M

» Download the presentation

Communication of concepts and solutions related to risk and reliability is frequently cited by technical professionals as the most challenging and overlooked aspects of their work. Texts and guidance documents frequently reference the importance of better communication and education; however, there are few practical examples and limited practical guidance provided. This presentation will provide tips, pointers, and lessons learned to help the practitioner bridge these gaps. The use of the Palisade DecisionTools Suite will also be highlighted. The presentation will be provided from the perspective of an individual who dually serves on decision making bodies as well as who also provides risk and reliability information to decision makers.

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