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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
June 6, 2017 Chicago
2017
2017




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

June 6th, 2017 • Chicago

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive half day conference in Chicago. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry.

Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The program will also include practical software training presented by Palisade. We’ll explore the features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modeling and analysis accessible and powerful.

This event is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company


“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


Networking Opportunities

Mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. All networking events on the schedule are included with your complimentary registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2017 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2017 include Mumbai, London, Abu Dhabi, Moscow, Singapore, and Jakarta.

Information about 2017 Conferences

Schedule

Tuesday 6 June 2017

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:30 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:10
WELCOME REMARKS

Stephen Hunt
Palisade Corporation

9:10 - 9:55
CASE STUDY

Injecting Certainty into an Uncertain Process
Jerry Scherer
JBScherer Consulting Group LLC

9:55 - 10:30
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Creating Probabilistic Risk Registers for Cost Estimation and Schedule Risk Analysis
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

10:30 - 11:00
Networking Break with Refreshments
11:00 - 11:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Project and Portfolio Analysis with DecisionTools Suite for R&D Projects
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

11:45 - 12:30

Presenters

  Fernando Hernández

Senior Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Fernando Hernández' areas of expertise are banking, finance, manufacturing, project evaluation, market forecasting and pricing. Fernando currently owns and operates InfoMasters, a company geared towards training, consulting and developing financial applications and decision making models for financial and manufacturing companies, using Microsoft Office and Palisade software. He has developed and taught courses including Intro to Corporate Finance, and Financial Simulation and Investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has created financial models, risk analyses and feasibility studies using @RISK. Fernando earned his licentiate degree in Finance Administration from the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar, he completed his MBA at Indiana University majoring in Finance & MIS.

  Brendan McGrath

First Vice President, Director of Credit Risk Analysis
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis

Brendan McGrath is a First Vice President, Director of Credit Risk Analysis in the Enterprise Risk Management department at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis, one of 11 U.S. government sponsored entities that support housing finance by providing liquidity to its member financial institutions. Brendan joined FHLBI’s investments team in 2000 and has experience in trading, fixed income portfolio management, mortgage analytics, risk management, and credit, market and operational risk modeling.

Mr. McGrath earned a CFA charter and a CPA license and for six years sat on the Board of Directors for the CFA Society of Indianapolis, including serving as its President from 2009-2010. Mr. McGrath earned a BS in Finance and an MS in Accounting from Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business and is also a member of the Beta Gamma Sigma honor society.

  Jerry Scherer

President
JB Scherer Consulting Group LLC

With more than 30 years of experience in utilizing technology to assist in management decision making, Jerry Scherer focuses on changing corporate culture to embrace stochastic rather than deterministic modeling. As Assistant Treasurer of Northwest Industries, a Fortune 200 leader in management control and data systems, Jerry utilized Monte Carlo simulation and optimization in the management of a $1.1 Billion dollar Revolving Credit portfolio. Jerry has also been Chief Financial Officer of a tool and die company and was Managing Partner of a consulting firm engaged in providing strategic planning advice and modeling. He now builds success models for clients.

Abstracts

  Injecting Uncertainty into an Uncertain Process

Jerry Scherer
JB Scherer Consulting Group LLC

» Download the presentation
» Download the models from the presentation

How does a company deal with disagreements between its C-Suite executives on the number of units that will be sold in the ensuing year, the number of sub-assemblies that will be required to be purchased, the unit price of those sub-assemblies and whether or not there will be an increase in the minimum wage affecting their Direct Labor employees? Stay tuned to see how a deterministic model turned out to produce A Most (Un)Likely Case Scenario!

  Creating Probabilistic Risk Registers for Cost Estimation and Schedule Risk Analysis

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

We will show how @RISK can be used to model cost uncertainty and risk events that will affect total project cost. How to model cost ranges and risk registers through the use of probability distributions. We will also discuss how to measure correlation between variables, how to add a correlation matrix into a model, and the impact of correlation in a result. Once the simulation model is run, we will learn how to assess the contingency required and develop mitigation strategies.

  Project and Portfolio Analysis with DecisionTools Suite for R&D Projects

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

Using Monte Carlo simulation, decision trees and optimization algorithms in any company that heavily relies on R&D

The nature of a drug development project or any other type of project that heavily relies on R&D successes, is characterized by high attrition rates, large capital expenditures, and long timelines. This makes the valuation of such projects and companies a challenging task. Not all valuation methods can cope with these particularities. We will use some of the most commonly used valuation methods such as risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) and decision trees within the framework of the DecisionTools Suite to solve for these cases.

  Combining Expert Opinions with Observed Data: An Introduction to Bayesian Inference, Modelling, and Analysis

Brendan McGrath
Federal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis

» Download the presentation

Bayesian inference is used in a wide variety of applications: from finding lost nuclear bombs and sunken treasure ships to email spam filtering and machine learning. It is also commonly used in decision analysis and operational risk modeling. While it may initially seem daunting, there simple and effective ways to incorporate Bayesian inference into your @RISK and PrecisionTree models, simulations, and analysis. Mr. McGrath will walk through basic concepts and show several intuitive examples, with the ultimate goal of allowing attendees to create their own analysis and models using @RISK. Concepts covered include: Bayes’ theorem and statistical inference modeling, creating simple Bayesian networks and Monte Carlo simulation in @RISK, Bayesian revision in PrecisionTree, quantifying and calibrating subject matter experts’ opinions, and more.

Wyndham Grand Chicago Riverfront

71 East Upper Wacker Drive
Chicago, IL 60601
tel. +1 312-346-7100
For more information, see the hotel website.

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