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Palisade Risk Conference
Risk & Decision Analysis for Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
March 7, 2017 Cambridge
2017
2017




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

March 7th, 2017 • Cambridge

Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis in Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive half day conference in Cambridge. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology.

Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in pharma and biotech. Previous case studies have included Novartis Pharma and Captum Capital.

The program will also include practical software training presented by Palisade. We’ll explore the features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modeling and analysis accessible and powerful.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company


“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


Networking Opportunities

Mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. All networking events on the schedule are included with your complimentary registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2017 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2017 include Mumbai, London, Abu Dhabi, Moscow, Singapore, and Jakarta.

Information about 2017 Conferences

Schedule

Tuesday 7 March 2017

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:30 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:10
WELCOME REMARKS

Jaime Weisberg
Palisade Corporation

9:10 - 9:45
9:45 - 10:30
CASE STUDY

Use of PrecisionTree to Aid Complex Decision-Making in Drug Development
Richard Bayney
Project & Portfolio Value Creation

10:30 - 11:00
Networking Break with Refreshments
11:00 - 11:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Exploring Custom Solutions using Palisade Software
Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

11:45 - 12:30

Presenters

  Richard Bayney

President
Project & Portfolio Value Creation

Dr. Richard Bayney is President and Founder of Project and Portfolio Value Creation (PPVC), a consulting boutique providing training and education in Project, Program, Portfolio, Resource, and Risk Management as well as Business, Strategic, Portfolio, and Scenario Planning services. He lectures at the University of Pennsylvania to graduate and executive students in ‘Project Portfolio Management’. He delivers certification masterclasses on ‘Decision Analysis’ and ‘Portfolio Management’ in the US, EU, and Asia. Richard is a frequent speaker in ‘Portfolio and Resource Management, Risk Analysis and Risk Management, and Strategic Planning in Drug Development’.

Dr. Bayney is a 23-year veteran of the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industry at Merck & Co., Bayer Corp. and AG, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical Research and Development. In his previous position at Johnson & Johnson, Richard was Vice President, Portfolio Management and Decision Analysis. He has spent 11 years building and leading departments in Strategic Planning, Decision Analysis, and Portfolio Management, 2 years as an International Project Manager for a marketed cardiovascular drug, and 10 years in Molecular Biology research into gene expression in drug detoxification systems and in Alzheimer's Disease.

Dr. Bayney obtained his M.Sc. and Ph.D. from the University of London, MBA from Columbia University, and PMP from the Project Management Institute.

  Dave Bristol

Trainer/Consultant
Palisade Corporation

Dave Bristol has been with Palisade for 20 years, working in a variety of positions from marketing to support/QA to sales. His interest in statistical analysis started in 1985 with a Christmas gift of “The Hidden Game of Baseball”, which encouraged him to look beyond the surface narratives of sporting events and discover the true components of successful performance. During his years in Palisade’s sales team, he developed an interest in exploring his clients’ models, building a collection of examples spanning the wide ranges of industries and applications for which @RISK and DecisionTools Suite is used. His curiosity about new types of analytics makes him an excellent addition to Palisade’s growing training and consulting services team.

  Antoine Galou

Senior Director, Business Planning
Radius Health, Inc.

Antoine has more than 15 years of experience within the Biopharma industry, specializing in corporate finance, business and portfolio strategy and decision-analysis. He leads the Strategic Planning and Decision Analysis team at Radius, a fast-growing biotech developing innovative therapeutics in the areas of osteoporosis, oncology and endocrine diseases.

Prior to joining Radius, Antoine was the Director of Strategic Planning and Decision Support at Sunovion / Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma where he was responsible for global portfolio management and strategy across therapeutic areas (CNS, Respiratory, Regenerative Medicine).

Prior to Sunovion / DSP, Antoine worked at Shire Pharmaceuticals and Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, where he held roles of increasing responsibility in financial planning & analysis and strategic planning. He started his career at PwC in merger & acquisitions and other transaction-related services, working mostly with major European and US biopharmaceutical companies.

Antoine holds an M.B.A. from Ecole Superieure de Commerce de Paris (ESCP), and a Master’s Degree in Finance from City University Business School, London.

  Gustavo Vinueza

Training Consultant
Palisade Corporation

Gustavo Vinueza is a Systems Engineer with more than 16 years of experience consulting for companies in finance & banking, telecommunications, insurance, and IT related services. Gustavo has worked with Palisade since 2011 as a Training Consultant and in the last year as Director of Custom Solutions. He earned his MBA from Torcuato Di Tella University in Argentina and a MS in Finance from Adolfo Ibáñez University in Chile. His main focuses are in financial and operational modeling, including scientific and academic research into business practice as well as data mining related matters.

His experience includes managing project portfolios (both operational and IT related), cost reduction programs, public purchases bidding, operational controls, capacity analysis, audit processes and software development projects, beside technological infrastructure implementation. He has also earned diplomas in Project Management, Usability, Business Process Management and Business Analytics.

Abstracts

  Practical Applications of the DecisionTools Suite in Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare

Dave Bristol
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

In this session, we'll look at case studies from Captum Capital, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, and Katharinenhospital of Stuttgart, Germany, to examine how the DecisionTools Suite is applied successfully to risk and decision analysis problems in pharmaceuticals and healthcare. These applications include financial rNPV analysis, pandemic planning and optimization, and tumor diagnosis.

  Use of PrecisionTree to Aid Complex Decision-Making In Drug Development

Richard Bayney
Project & Portfolio Value Creation

» Download the presentation

The Biopharmaceutical industry faces expensive, complex, multi-phase decision-making punctuated by high technical and regulatory risks as well as uncertain commercial outcomes. Not surprisingly, data gathering and validation become the focal point for much discussion and debate, especially when an analysis of decision alternatives between competing investments results in a marginally dominant policy suggestion. Invariably, decision-makers request more data - not all of which may be decision-relevant - resulting in protracted and inefficient decision-making. In this vein, the challenge to transparent, defensible decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty rests in testing the sensitivity of data ranges to a dominant policy suggestion. In some cases, incrementally small changes to data result in a different policy suggestion while in other cases, a policy suggestion may remain unchanged by large variances in data. In any event, Decision Trees facilitate good discussion around phase-specific investments and risks as well as uncertain commercial value and enable decisions to be taken on the basis of phase-specific, risk-adjusted value. The most popularly used metric for such decisions in the Biopharmaceutical industry is risk-adjusted Net Present Value (eNPV).

This presentation examines the case of Drugs 'R' Us, a Biopharmaceutical company facing a decision to invest in either (a) lead molecule ABC for the treatment of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) or (b) lead molecule XYZ for the treatment of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and General Anxiety Disorder (GAD). Both compounds have clinical and regulatory risks associated with their development and regulatory approval and, because of the rapidly changing competitive environment, there are huge commercial uncertainties associated with their market uptake.

With the use of Palisade's Precision Tree, a multi-phase Decision Tree was constructed for each decision alternative. For the purposes of this presentation, this complex Decision Tree was subsequently collapsed and displayed by a single R&D node (to represent clinical and regulatory risks) along with a single Commercial node (to represent commercial uncertainties).

While the policy suggestion was easy to determine on the basis of eNPV, the company was hesitant to commit to a decision until a thorough examination of the sensitivity of the policy suggestion to combined clinical and regulatory risks and commercial uncertainties was conducted. This sensitivity analysis helped Drugs 'R' Us in its belief in the Subject Matter Expert (SME) judgments and subsequently, in its deliberations. With the aid of Precision Tree, the analysis demonstrated the following -

  • How to decompose a complex investment decision in a logically consistent manner.
  • How to conduct a defensible program evaluation.
  • How to challenge SME judgment and evaluate the sensitivity of the dominance of a policy suggestion to risks and uncertainties.
  • How to facilitate good decision-making by striving for approximate data correctness as opposed to absolute precision.

  Exploring Custom Solutions using Palisade Software

Gustavo Vinueza
Palisade Corporation

Explore how Palisade tools can help boost your productivity and how automation can enable you to focus more on results rather than modeling.

This presentation will show users how to use different techniques that make the decision process more productive, by enabling @RISK related processes to be performed automatically. During the presentation a series of automation examples will be shown for several industries. The main goal is to open the discussion of when this automation should be added and how to do it. Examples from Finance, Project Management and other industries will be shown.

  Use of TopRank, PrecisionTree and @RISK in complex drug development decision analysis

Antoine Galou
Radius Health, Inc.

In the biopharma industry, portfolio analysts and modelers are faced with the extreme complexity inherent to drug development. From probability of technical and regulatory success to development timelines, sales forecast, pricing and reimbursement, each valuation model can rely on hundreds of factors, sometimes interdependent, that can potentially affect the inherent value of an asset in drastic ways. It is important for decision-analysts to thoroughly understand these assumptions and derive key sensitivities that they should focus on and test as part of the decision analysis process. TopRank is a powerful tool that can provide a quick and exhaustive analysis of the critical assumptions that most influence a valuation model.

These assumptions, including major risks and uncertainties, can then be included in a decision-analysis model so analysts can test how much they influence outcome, value and therefore development decision. For instance, should a company continue to develop a program in-house to market, or should a company out-license that asset? This question can be modeled using PrecisionTree. Elements identified using TopRank that could impact the decision can now be included in the Tree. If only a couple of elements should be tested, using the one or two-way sensitivity analysis in PrecisionTree is enough to produce a decision map (reference to Richard Bayney’s presentation). If multiple elements influencing the decision should be tested, the decision analyst can use @RISK to model how distributions affect the expected outcome (eNPV). A Monte Carlo simulation provides insight into the “elasticity” of the decision path, and becomes an essential component supporting the final, managerial decision.

If @RISK is a powerful tool for decision analysis at the program-level, it can also help modeling how the level of risk of a given portfolio could potentially affect the enterprise. For instance, resource planning can be tremendously impacted whether 1, 2, 3 or X number of programs fail and are terminated, each potentially at different development stages and moments in the future. An @RISK resource model can be created and coupled to the portfolio probabilities of technical and regulatory success to provide insight into the resource level managers and leaders should anticipate to have at a given time with a reasonable level of assurance.

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