Palisade
Live Chat
Palisade Training Workshop
RISK & DECISION ANALYSIS
October 5, 2017 - Birmingham








Palisade Training Workshop

Risk and Decision Analysis

October 5th, 2017 • Birmingham

Intensive Risk and Decision
Analysis Training Workshop

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day Risk and Decision Analysis Training Workshop in Birmingham on Thursday, 5th October.

This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. This workshop is designed for anyone who performs risk analysis as part of their work.

The programme includes training sessions run by Aman Bajaj, Manuel Carmona, and Doug Oldfield of Palisade. They will present several sessions on quantitative modeling using @RISK, including an introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation, financial modeling, selecting the right distribution, risk registers, and sensitivity analysis. Participants will work on models along with the trainer to understand how quantitative techniques like Monte Carlo Simulation and Optimization can apply to any business decision making problem involving uncertainty.

The charge to attend this event is GBP £150 + VAT/Participant after August 31. Registration includes a 3-month standalone license of the full DecisionTools Suite Industrial.

Refreshments and a lunch break are provided during the course of the day.

The event promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.


Register Now

Register now for Birmingham - Save £50 with early registration by August 31.

 
Sorry, this product is not currently available.
 

Schedule

Thursday, 5 October 2017

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

9:00 - 9:30
Registration and Coffee
9:30 - 9:45
9:45 - 11:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Building a Project Cost Estimate with @RISK
Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

11:00 - 11:15
Networking Break
11:15 - 12:30
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Financial Modeling with @RISK
Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

12:30 - 13:15
Networking Lunch
13:15 - 14:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Selecting the Right Distribution
Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

14:00 - 15:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Making Risk Registers with @RISK
Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

15:00 - 15:15
Networking Break
15:15 - 15:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

What-if Sensitivity Analysis using TopRank
Aman Bajaj
Palisade Corporation

15:45 - 17:00
CLOSING

Closing Remarks and Networking Reception
Doug Oldfield & Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

Presenters

  Aman Bajaj

Business Development Manager
Palisade Corporation

Aman’s interest in decision modeling using Excel interested him to start a sales & business development role with Palisade in 2012. Though his previous experience of about 8 years had been in a sales role in various companies in India, he acquired a keenness for statistics and financial modeling in Excel when studying part-time for his Post Graduate Diploma in Capital and Financial Markets from IIFT, Delhi and the CFA Level 1 program which he cleared in 2011. At Palisade, Aman is responsible for looking after key regions such as the UK, Switzerland, India, Singapore, Malaysia and more countries in South East Asia. He is passionate about demonstrating how easy and necessary it is to implement quantitative techniques in business decision making, such as Monte Carlo simulation and Optimization, in various industries such as Management Consulting, Insurance, Banking, Asset Management, Engineering/Construction, Manufacturing, etc. Aman is based out of Palisade’s Europe office in London.

  Manuel Carmona

Business Development Manager
Palisade Corporation

Manuel Carmona is an passionate advocate of using software technology to improve decision making in organizations across industry sectors. He helps customers around the world to advance their knowledge of Palisade’s @RISK and the Decision Tools Suite, as a way of emphasizing the importance of risk estimation and simulation methods when companies face complex business problems that require making important decisions under uncertainty. Manuel participates frequently in though provoking training workshops for Excel modelers and also leads in-company and academic training sessions and presentations. Manuel is based in London and joined Palisade UK in 2003 after completing his MBA at the University of Westminster.

  Doug Oldfield

Business Development Manager
Palisade Corporation

Doug Oldfield joined Palisade in 2008. He has since travelled around the world showing organisations how they can utilise @RISK and other tools, to improve their decision making capability, and understanding of risk and uncertainty. He estimates that he has given more than 1,500 software presentations and has worked with clients in industries ranging from oil and gas, finance, and pharmaceutical, through to defence, engineering/construction, and finance. He is also a regular speaker on the topic of quantitative risk analysis, at conferences worldwide.

Abstracts

  Intro to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis

Aman Bajaj
Palisade Corporation

We will open the conference with a brief overview of Palisade, and then address the question you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Building a Project Cost Estimate with @RISK

Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

In this session attendees will learn how to put together a simple cost model using @RISK, learning about a number of important features along the way.

Take outs will include:

  • Understanding how to get the same results each time a simulation is run
  • How to use Excel cell references in a model, and why it is best practice to do so
  • Generating a histogram/ S-Curve and customising it for reports
  • Interpreting tornado graphs to understand key drivers in models
  • Using scatter plots as a sanity check on a model
  • Using confidence levels (percentiles) to quantify the likelihood of an outcome
  • Automatically generating meaningful information using the @RISK statistics functions
  • Calculating how much contingency needs to be added to a base estimate

  Financial Modeling with @RISK

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

Many organizational decisions involve making calculated risk / return judgements, evaluating and managing risk must therefore be an integral part of business activities. This session is an introduction to the fundamentals of @RISK using a probabilistic discounted cash flow -NPV model as the basis. This includes setting out the model logic, inserting input distributions and output functions to the spreadsheet, running a simulation, and then generating various graphs and reports. We will discuss the interpretation of these Monte Carlo simulation results, and describe the more advanced features such as assessing different scenarios with special functions.

  Selecting the Right Distribution

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

This session will look at the most popular distributions in @RISK. A variety of techniques for choosing the right distribution for your needs will be discussed and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions; discrete, continuous and a combination of both, to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.

  Making Risk Registers with @RISK

Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

Quantitative risk registers are something which can be added to any model, but are fundamentally about modelling likelihood (or frequency) and severity, and then combining them. This session will give attendees the opportunity to build one themselves from scratch.

Take outs will include:

  • Understanding why the average is a risky way to model risk
  • How to choose a distribution to model event risk
  • Why building a conditional risk register is the only theoretically sound way of modeling event risk
  • How to combine likelihood and severity using RiskMakeInput and RiskCompound

  What-if Sensitivity Analysis using TopRank

Aman Bajaj
Palisade Corporation

With TopRank we will perform deterministic sensitivity analyses on spreadsheet models, creating tornado charts and spider graphs. One of the key features of TopRank is that it can automatically find all inputs for you in the model! TopRank also supports @RISK functions and we will be reviewing this as well.

Hilton Garden Inn Birmingham

 

1 Brunswick Square
Brindleyplace
Birmingham
B1 2HW
tel: +44-121-6431003
For more information, see the hotel website.

Palisade Corporation
798 Cascadilla Street
Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
+1 607 277 8000
+1 607 277 8001 fax
sales@palisade.com
Palisade EMEA & India
+44 1895 425050
sales@palisade-europe.com
Palisade Asia-Pacific
+61 2 9252 5922
salesAP@palisade.com
Palisade アジア・
パシフィック東京事務所
+81 3 5456 5287 tel
sales.jp@palisade.com
www.palisade.com/jp/
Palisade Latinoamérica
+1 607 277 8000 x318
+54-1152528795  Argentina
+56-25813492     Chile
+507-8365675     Panamá
+52 55 5350 2852     México
+511-7086781     Perú
+57-15085187     Colombia
servicioalcliente@palisade.com
ventas@palisade.com
www.palisade-lta.com
Palisade Brasil
+55 (21) 3958 1443
+1 607 277 8000 x318 tel
vendas@palisade.com
www.palisade-br.com