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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
September 20, 2016 Edison, New Jersey
2016
2016




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

September 20th, 2016 • Edison, New Jersey

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive half-day conference in Edison New Jersey. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin

Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer two types of sessions to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Networking Opportunities – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff.

Join a Global Group

The 2016 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2016 include New Delhi, Bangalore, Munich, Amsterdam, Edinburgh, Moscow, Abu Dhabi and Cape Town.

Information about 2016 Conferences

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Tuesday 20 September 2016

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

9:00 - 9:10
WELCOME

Welcome and Introduction to Palisade
Dave Bristol
Palisade Corporation

9:15 - 10:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Best @RISK Features You Might Not Be Using
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

10:05 - 10:50
CASE STUDY

Use of PrecisionTree to Aid Complex Decision-Making in Drug Development
Richard Bayney
Project & Portfolio Value Creation

10:50 - 11:20
Break
11:20 - 12:05
12:10 - 1:00
CASE STUDY

Using Palisade Tools to Increase Project Confidence
Robert Masnik
Ernst & Young

Presenters

  Dave Bristol

Sales Manager
Palisade Corporation

Dave Bristol has been with Palisade since 1997 and worked out of the Ithaca HQ for over a decade before moving to Vermont in 2009. Dave started out in marketing, and then spent some time working with the QA team. In 2002, he oversaw the opening of Palisade's first regional office, Palisade Europe in London. Upon returning to the states he joined the sales team and has been the US Eastern Region Sales manager for the last decade. His interest in sports analytics dovetails nicely with Palisade’s simulation and decision analysis software packages, and his love of fishing serves as a constant reminder that nothing can be predicted with 100% certainty.

  Fernando Hernández

Senior Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Fernando Hernández' areas of expertise are banking, finance, manufacturing, project evaluation, market forecasting and pricing. Fernando currently owns and operates InfoMasters, a company geared towards training, consulting and developing financial applications and decision making models for financial and manufacturing companies, using Microsoft Office and Palisade software. He has developed and taught courses including Intro to Corporate Finance, and Financial Simulation and Investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has created financial models, risk analyses and feasibility studies using @RISK. Fernando earned his licentiate degree in Finance Administration from the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar, he completed his MBA at Indiana University majoring in Finance & MIS.

  Robert Ameo

Managing Director
Market Modelers

Robert Ameo has over 25 years’ experience in health care management, marketing, and business development. He served in the corporate development group at Johnson & Johnson evaluating L&A opportunities. Robert has extensive experience evaluating investment opportunities and their portfolio impact for mergers and acquisitions, venture investing, research development, and marketing efforts.

Robert founded Market Modelers (www.marketmodelers.com) in 2008. Since then, Market Modelers has become recognized as the go-to group for long range sales forecasting of novel life sciences and consumer products. Using extensive industry experience and behavioral research, they design and execute targeted market research to quantify defensible forecasts for new technology and product adoption. These forecasts are used both by start-up ventures to create a vision of their potential worth and well-established biopharmaceutical, medical device, and consumer goods companies to understand the true economic value of their potential investments.

Prior to his industry experience, Robert was VP of clinical operations and utilization management for a national managed-care company. He holds a behavioral science PhD from the University of Miami. Currently he is a member of the International Institute of Forecasters and ESOMAR, an international market research society.

  Richard Bayney

President
Project & Portfolio Value Creation

Dr. Richard Bayney is President and Founder of Project and Portfolio Value Creation (PPVC), a consulting boutique providing training and education in Project, Program, Portfolio, Resource, and Risk Management as well as Business, Strategic, Portfolio, and Scenario Planning services. He lectures at the University of Pennsylvania to graduate and executive students in ‘Project Portfolio Management’. He delivers certification masterclasses on ‘Decision Analysis’ and ‘Portfolio Management’ in the US, EU, and Asia. Richard is a frequent speaker in ‘Portfolio and Resource Management, Risk Analysis and Risk Management, and Strategic Planning in Drug Development’.

Dr. Bayney is a 23-year veteran of the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industry at Merck & Co., Bayer Corp. and AG, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical Research and Development. In his previous position at Johnson & Johnson, Richard was Vice President, Portfolio Management and Decision Analysis. He has spent 11 years building and leading departments in Strategic Planning, Decision Analysis, and Portfolio Management, 2 years as an International Project Manager for a marketed cardiovascular drug, and 10 years in Molecular Biology research into gene expression in drug detoxification systems and in Alzheimer's Disease.

Dr. Bayney obtained his M.Sc. and Ph.D. from the University of London, MBA from Columbia University, and PMP from the Project Management Institute.

  Robert Masnik

Senior Manager
Ernst & Young

Robert Masnik is a Senior Manager with Ernst & Young (EY). He has over 30 years of successfully managing global multi-billion dollar business and technology strategies, initiatives, facilities and services across healthcare, life science, aerospace, technology and telecommunications industries. Robert has been recognized for the successful transformation and turnaround of complex organizations and projects facing extensive risks, with the highest awards for global services and performance excellence.

Robert has proven expertise in Executive Information Systems, Decision Support Systems and Predictive Analytics for complex Operations, Program Execution, Project Portfolios and Quality Control. He is certified by the Project Management Institute as a Project Management Professional, and by ISACA with Certifications in Risk and Information Systems Control and the Governance of Enterprise Information Technology.

Abstracts

  Best @RISK Features You Might Not Be Using

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

The DecisionTools Suite is widely used in oil and gas exploration, production, and project decisions. For decades, @RISK has helped engineers and finance managers estimate unknown reserves, value new projects against each other, and craft optimal strategies. PrecisionTree, another tool in the DecisionTools Suite, is commonly used for drilling strategy discussions, production siting problems, and other multi-stage, sequential decisions. RISKOptimizer comes into play when companies need to determine the best “mix” of projects in their portfolio in order to maximize overall returns.

In this presentation, we will demonstrate how @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite can be applied to common types of issues faced by oil and gas producers.

  Evaluating L&A Investments Using an @RISK Monte Carlos Simulation of NPV - How to calculating the odds of winning

Robert Ameo
Market Modelers

» Download the presentation

This presentation describes how to use an @RISK Monte Carlo simulation of net present value (NPV) outcomes of potential L&A investments to pick the plays with the best odds of winning. Whether you’re a buyer, investor or seller, you have to know at what value an investment is a good bet. To do that you need to calculate the odds like a championship poker player. You need to know the “pot” odds i.e., how much is gambled, how much can be won and the likelihood of winning.

Two investments can have the same average NPV, but can be differentiated on their gambling odds. Traditional simulations produce histograms that lay out the range of possible outcomes from any venture, but these are often difficult to explain to decision makers used to evaluating single point ‘base’ cases. Giving executives information which encompasses both the potential risks and rewards and the probability ratio between them (“the odds”) shows the value of a well-executed NPV Monte Carlo simulation.

In his presentation Dr. Ameo describes how to interpret the output of a NPV Monte Carlo simulation as gambling odds. Using the simple, straightforward language of wagering to effectively communicate the relative risks and opportunities presented by specific investments.

The derivation of key gambling metrics—chances of winning, value of winning, cost of a loss, and “the odds”—will be presented along with the appropriate language and graphics to present and discuss the findings. Implications for portfolio planning and decision-making will be discussed.

  Use of PrecisionTree to Aid Complex Decision-Making In Drug Development

Richard Bayney
Project & Portfolio Value Creation

» Download the presentation

The Biopharmaceutical industry faces expensive, complex, multi-phase decision-making punctuated by high technical and regulatory risks as well as uncertain commercial outcomes. Not surprisingly, data gathering and validation become the focal point for much discussion and debate, especially when an analysis of decision alternatives between competing investments results in a marginally dominant policy suggestion. Invariably, decision-makers request more data - not all of which may be decision-relevant - resulting in protracted and inefficient decision-making. In this vein, the challenge to transparent, defensible decision-making under conditions of risk and uncertainty rests in testing the sensitivity of data ranges to a dominant policy suggestion. In some cases, incrementally small changes to data result in a different policy suggestion while in other cases, a policy suggestion may remain unchanged by large variances in data. In any event, Decision Trees facilitate good discussion around phase-specific investments and risks as well as uncertain commercial value and enable decisions to be taken on the basis of phase-specific, risk-adjusted value. The most popularly used metric for such decisions in the Biopharmaceutical industry is risk-adjusted Net Present Value (eNPV).

This presentation examines the case of Drugs 'R' Us, a Biopharmaceutical company facing a decision to invest in either (a) lead molecule ABC for the treatment of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) or (b) lead molecule XYZ for the treatment of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and General Anxiety Disorder (GAD). Both compounds have clinical and regulatory risks associated with their development and regulatory approval and, because of the rapidly changing competitive environment, there are huge commercial uncertainties associated with their market uptake.

With the use of Palisade's Precision Tree, a multi-phase Decision Tree was constructed for each decision alternative. For the purposes of this presentation, this complex Decision Tree was subsequently collapsed and displayed by a single R&D node (to represent clinical and regulatory risks) along with a single Commercial node (to represent commercial uncertainties).

While the policy suggestion was easy to determine on the basis of eNPV, the company was hesitant to commit to a decision until a thorough examination of the sensitivity of the policy suggestion to combined clinical and regulatory risks and commercial uncertainties was conducted. This sensitivity analysis helped Drugs 'R' Us in its belief in the Subject Matter Expert (SME) judgments and subsequently, in its deliberations. With the aid of Precision Tree, the analysis demonstrated the following -

  • How to decompose a complex investment decision in a logically consistent manner.
  • How to conduct a defensible program evaluation.
  • How to challenge SME judgment and evaluate the sensitivity of the dominance of a policy suggestion to risks and uncertainties.
  • How to facilitate good decision-making by striving for approximate data correctness as opposed to absolute precision.

  Using Palisade tools to increase project confidence

Robert Masnik
Ernst & Young

» Download the presentation

In this presentation, Robert will walk through using StatTools for statistical sampling and forecasting for project deliverable quality. Robert will also go over running an @RISK simulation with project cost/schedule estimation and PrecisionTree for complex risk decisions and interdependency analysis.

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