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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
September 22, 2016 Edinburgh
2016
2016




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

September 22th, 2016 • Edinburgh

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day conference in Edinburgh. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company


“Very impressive and good chance to link with colleagues.”

Michael Pemberton, Operations Research Analyst, Pueblo Community College (ret.)


“Excellent conference. Very informative. Great topics.”

Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk Management at CenterPoint Energy


“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


“Another great conference - well done! It's always a stimulating and thought-provoking experience, and great hospitality.”

Michael Brand, Captum Capital

Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer two types of sessions to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Networking Opportunities – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. Lunches, breaks and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2016 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2016 include Bangalore, New Delhi, Munich, Amsterdam, Edinburgh, Moscow and Cape Town.

Information about 2016 Conferences

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Thursday 22 September 2016

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:15
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri, Director
Palisade Corporation

9:15 - 10:15
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

10:15 - 10:35
Networking Break
10:35 - 11:20
CASE STUDY

Generating combined cost and schedule risk analysis
Dale Shermon
QinetiQ Ltd.

11:20 - 12:05
12:05 - 13:00
Networking Lunch
13:00 - 13:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Optimization, Decision Trees, and BigPicture
Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

13:45 - 14:30
14:30 - 14:50
Networking Break
14:50 - 15:35
15:35 - 15:40
Closing Remarks


Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

15:40 - 16:40
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  Cath Milne

Senior Agricultural Economist
SRUC

Cath Milne is a senior agricultural economist at SRUC who has over 30 years experience working in the industry and undertaking consultancy, teaching and research. Now primarily a researcher she specialises in farm management, looking at complex decisions particularly where the best choice for an individual business may have negative side effects for others.

  Doug Oldfield

Sales Manager
Palisade EMEA & India

Doug Oldfield joined Palisade in 2008 and is responsible for sales and business development in the Middle East. In his 6 years at Palisade, Doug has worked extensively with clients in lots of different industries, and has good experience of modelling business risk and opportunity. Prior to joining Palisade, Doug worked 8 years at an IT recruitment company in London, and also managed various retail shops around the UK, including "The Busiest Shop in the World" (according to the Guinness Book of Records). Doug holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Politics and Philosophy from the University of Warwick in the UK.

  Iain Poole

Head of Oil and Gas Consultancy
Barnett Waddingham

An understanding of the risks associated with subsurface uncertainties, facilities development, production forecasts and revenue projections is essential to asset valuation, project planning, selection for sanction at the portfolio level, and planning acquisition and divestment to optimize enterprise value.
This presentation will look at the value of developing an integrated approach to modelling uncertainty from subsurface to economics, incorporating a holistic view of the value of the natural, external and internal risks which affect major Upstream assets and projects.
Examples will be given of modelling risks and values associated with a major North Sea project, looking at the potential financial impacts of different approaches to risk valuation.

  Dale Shermon

Head of Profession - Cost Engineering
QinetiQ Ltd.

Dale Shermon is a QinetiQ Fellow and Head of Profession for Cost Engineering in QinetiQ Procurement Advisory Service (PAS). Dale has presented training courses in fundamentals of cost estimating, hardware estimating, software estimating, life cycle cost, Cost Estimating Relationships, Information Technology, risk analysis and supplier assessment in the UK, Italy, USA, Sweden, France, Australia, Singapore, Taiwan and Germany. He has conducted consulting assignments in UK, Switzerland, Italy, France, Australia and the Netherlands.
Dale was the author of the Gower publication “Systems Cost Engineering” (ISBN: 978-0-566-08861-2) which was published in July 2009. Dale contributed Chapter six “The Impact of Complexity on Project Cost and Schedule Estimates” in the PMI publication “Aspects of Complexity: Managing Projects in a Complex World” (ISBN: 978-1-935589-30-3) which was published in 2011.

  Simon Waters

Engineer
National Grid

Simon Waters has a keen interest in systems Engineering with particular focus on operational, economic and performance enhancement. Simon’s early career started with a 4 year Engineering apprenticeship in the airline industry where he then worked as a Technician for several years before leaving to attending Warwick University.

Simon studied Engineering at Warwick and joined National Grid in 1991 after graduation. Simon has enjoyed a wide range of commercial, operational and Engineering roles with National Grid since then, working on both electricity and gas transmission systems over the last 25 years.

Abstracts

  Conference Welcome & Introduction

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Palisade General Manager Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst’s toolbox. We'll also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  Generating combined cost and schedule risk analysis

Dale Shermon
QinetiQ Ltd.

» Download the presentation

This presentation will build from the basics of defining cost and schedule in terms of baseline, uncertainty and risk. It will take the audience from the start through the development of the aggregation of cost and schedule Monte Carlo analysis in @RISK to consider the combined cost and schedule risk analysis. Finally, the presentation will review the combine output and the interpretation of the confidence levels in @RISK and the realization that 50% cost and 50% schedule confidence does not equate to a combine 50% confidence level.

  Modelling Electricity Transmission Restoration Performance using @RISK

Simon Waters
National Grid

» Download the presentation

There is a tendency for communities to take for granted the reliable electricity supplies that are essential for so many aspects of today’s modern life. This is perhaps because major incidents resulting in partial or total system black-out are exceeding rare. However, such events can occur across the globe, and each nations electricity industry parties must have robust restoration plans to cater for such an event. Performing live (real world) performance measurement of these restoration plans is not a sensible approach owing to the resulting disruption, safety and economic implications.

This project revolves around utilising @RISK probabilistic modelling techniques to simulate and measure GB network restoration performance for a wide range of scenarios using the key technical, operational and human factors associated with such an adverse set of circumstances. The results provide a credible set of performance measures against which pinch-points can be identified, investment decisions may be made or plans adapted to optimise deployment.

  The search for efficient deployment of CAPEX: financial consequences of differenc approaches to modelling uncertainties for the Upstream Oil and Gas industry

Iain Poole
Barnett Waddingham

» Download the presentation

An understanding of the risks associated with subsurface uncertainties, facilities development, production forecasts and revenue projections is essential to asset valuation, project planning, selection for sanction at the portfolio level, and planning acquisition and divestment to optimize enterprise value.

This presentation will look at the value of developing an integrated approach to modelling uncertainty from subsurface to economics, incorporating a holistic view of the value of the natural, external and internal risks which affect major Upstream assets and projects.

Examples will be given of modelling risks and values associated with a major North Sea project, looking at the potential financial impacts of different approaches to risk valuation.

  Using PrecisionTree to explore complex decisions in farm animal health

Cath Milne
SRUC

» Download the presentation

This presentation will look at how Precision Tree can help describe complex decisions, explore optimal solutions for different conditions and communicate the problem to non-expert stakeholders. It will give a step guide to the construction of a model built to evaluate the choice alternatives and identify the profit maximising business solution to a farm management problem. In this case there negative side-effects can arise from each alternative course of action. How such a model can be used to help non-expert stakeholders gain an understanding of these management dilemmas will be illustrated.

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Edinburgh

DoubleTree by Hilton Edinburgh City Centre
34 Bread Street
Edinburgh
EH3 9AF
Scotland
tel. +44 (0) 131 221 5555
For more information, see the hotel website.

Palisade Corporation
798 Cascadilla Street
Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
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+1 607 277 8001 fax
sales@palisade.com
Palisade EMEA & India
+44 1895 425050
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