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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
April 21, 2016 New Delhi
2016
2016




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

April 21st, 2016 • New Delhi

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

On April 21st, we brought our popular Regional Risk Conference series to New Delhi for the first time, gathering at The Claridges New Delhi Hotel. This event explored quantitative risk and decision analysis for professionals across a range of industries. Around 50 attendees represented various interests, from banking, insurance, management consulting, energy to even construction/engineering and project risk management.

The Conference was opened by Craig Ferri, Managing Director, Palisade EMEA & India, who gave an Introduction to Palisade, followed by a presentation on "The World of Probabilistic Analysis”. Over the course of the day there were in-depth software demonstration sessions from Aman Bajaj, Business Development Manager for India who introduced @RISK, as well as showed how the new features in the latest releases such as Big Picture.

Throughout the day a number of interesting case studies were presented by guest speakers:

  • From University of Delhi - Dr. Pankaj Sinha - “Modeling of Uncertainty in Financial Decisions using @RISK”
  • From Strategic Decisions Group - Hitanshu Gandhi - “Prospect Level Decisions in Early Stage Exploration Blocks”
  • From L&T Institute of Project Management - Chakradhar Iyyunni - “Regaining Hope: Ensuring Indian Mega-Project Scope and Schedule Performance”
  • From Money Shastra - Viswanathan M.B. - “Liability Driven Investment Strategies for Individuals using Monte Carlo Method”
  • From Apollo Munich Health Insurance - Vishwanath Mahendra - “Application of @RISK in Reinsurance Optimisation”

Delegates took advantage of the chance to network with each other as well as communicate with Palisade experts, who helped participants, improve their understanding of the topics and gain useful insight to issues they may have been facing.

If you want to find out more about this or any of our upcoming conferences visit: http://www.palisade.com/Conf/ .

Join a Global Group

The 2016 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2016 include Bangalore, Munich, Amsterdam, Edinburgh, Moscow and Cape Town.

Information about 2016 Conferences

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Thursday 21 April 2016

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:15
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri, Director
Palisade Corporation

9:15 - 10:15
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Aman Bajaj
Palisade Corporation

10:15 - 10:35
Networking Break
10:35 - 11:15
CASE STUDY

Modeling of Uncertainty in Financial Decisions using @RISK
Dr. Pankaj Sinha
University of Delhi

11:15 - 12:00
CASE STUDY

Prospect Level Decisions in Early Stage Exploration Blocks
Hitanshu Gandhi
Strategic Decisions Group

12:00 - 1:00
Networking Lunch
1:00 - 1:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Optimization and BigPitcure
Aman Bajaj
Palisade Corporation

1:45 - 2:25
CASE STUDY

Regaining Hope: Ensuring Indian Mega-Project Scope and Schedule Performance
Chakradhar Iyyunni
L&T Institute of Project Management

2:25 - 3:05
3:05 - 3:25
Networking Break
3:25 - 4:05
CASE STUDY

Application of @RISK in Reinsurance Optimisation
Vishwanath Mahendra
Apollo Munich Health Insurance

4:05 - 4:20
Closing Remarks


Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

4:20 - 5:20
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  Aman Bajaj

Regional Sales & Business Development Manager – India
Palisade Corporation

Aman joined Palisade towards the end of 2012 with a focus on growing the business for Palisade software and training services in India. During the last two years, Palisade has had considerable success in terms of winning new key customers on both the academic and industry side of the business in India. Aman holds a Bachelor of Engineering from Gulbarga University and also completed a Post Graduate Diploma in Capital and Financial Markets from Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, New Delhi. Having passed CFA Level 1 in 2010, he is also studying towards the next level of this certification.

  Hitanshu Gandhi

Associate Partner
Strategic Decisions Group

Hitanshu, has a decade of experience spanning “blue sky” strategy engagements, evaluation of significant investment opportunities, program management of large & long-gestation investments and organizational re-structuring. He has worked across uncertain sectors like infrastructure, oil & gas where clients need to place “big bets”. As a decision analysis expert he has worked extensively with O&G majors including independents and NOCs, and has trained their staff in SDG's Decision Quality processes and tools.

  Chakradhar Iyyunni

Faculty
L&T Institute of Project Management

With 24+ years of academic & industrial research experience in oil & gas, energy utilities & aerospace industries and an earned Ph.D in Mechanical Engineering, Dr. Chakradhar Iyyunni conducts research on risk and decision-making. His goal is to create best practices by understanding experiential aspects of current projects. Grounded in optimization theory and nonlinear modeling, he believes that scientific, systematic and innovative project management techniques will lead to successful project execution. The focus on project control can be affected by scope or risk models, queuing theory-based scheduling concepts, communication protocols and managing people effectively.

  Vishwanath Mahendra

Appointed Actuary and Chief Risk Officer
Apollo Munich Health Insurance

Vishwanath Mahendra is working as Appointed Actuary and Chief Risk Officer. He is also member of the Executive Committee. He is associated with Apollo Munich since 2008. He has been instrumental in setting up actuarial and analytics functions in the Company.

He has over 20 years of experience in Actuarial and Finance domain in some of the best known companies.

He is an Associate Member of The Institute of Cost Accountants of India, Associate Member of Institute of Actuaries, UK and Fellow Member of Institute of Actuaries of India with specialisation in Health and Care Insurance. He is also working as the Chairman of Advisory Group on Health & Care Insurance of Institute of Actuaries of India.

Vishwanath is married and has two sons.

  Viswanathan M.B.

Founder
Money Shastra

Viswanathan is a Chartered Account with c.11 years of experience in a wide variety of roles including financial planning, corporate finance, equity research, consulting and teaching. He founded MoneyShastra.com an upcoming online portal that provides interesting tools and insights to retail investors. He also teaches corporate finance, risk management and financial engineering at various B-schools and institutes. Viswanathan holds FCA, CFA and FRM designations and is currently pursuing the actuary program.

  Dr. Pankaj Sinha

Professor
Delhi University

Dr. Pankaj Sinha is a senior Professor at Faculty of Management Studies. He received his Ph.D. degree in Bayesian Econometrics from the University of Delhi. Dr. Sinha’s research, professional and teaching interests revolve around the areas of Bayesian econometrics, financial forecasting, financial engineering, financial mathematics, financial risk management, investment analysis and computational finance. He has published papers in leading international academic journals as well as in international conferences.

He teaches financial modeling and forecasting, financial derivatives and financial engineering, quantitative analysis of financial decisions, financial risk management and Statistics to students of MBA at Faculty of Management Studies. He teaches Quantitative Economics to probationers of Indian Economics Service at Institute of Economic Growth.

Over the years, he has delivered lectures on Financial Risk Management, Financial Econometrics, computational finance, advanced quantitative methods, and advanced forecasting in India, USA and Europe. He has been regularly invited as a key speaker at IIM Lucknow, MDI, Gurgaon, National Labour Institute, National Academy of Customs Excise & Narcotics, National Academy of Direct Taxes, GAIL and National Institute of Criminology and Forensic Science. Dr. Sinha also has expertise in the area of Bayesian evaluation of forensic evidence and Probability of guilt. He is associated with the various training programmes for higher judicial officers, forensic scientists and police officers conducted by NICFSc, Ministry of Home Affairs.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in New Delhi
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

  Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Palisade General Manager Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Aman Bajaj
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst’s toolbox. We'll also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  Modeling of Uncertainty in Financial Decisions using @RISK

Dr. Pankaj Sinha
Delhi University

In the advance theory of Finance, we accept that financial variables such as asset prices, sales, demand revenue, cash flows and cost of capital are random variables. One of the hurdles in adopting random models in Finance is how to model the component of randomness that makes the financial variables unpredictable. @RISK is a powerful tool available to model uncertainties in financial Decisions. Some examples in the area of capital budgeting, business valuation, portfolio construction and evaluation can be used to illustrate that how better financial decisions can be made with the use of the @RISK software.

  Prospect Level Decisions in Early Stage Exploration Blocks

Hitanshu Gandhi
Strategic Decisions Group

» Download the presentation

Many oil and gas companies have some approaches / tools for taking portfolio level decisions. However, before a project enters the development stage, most companies do not know the true value of their prospects or contingents - at best they calculate prospect level Net Present Values and an Expected Monetary Value. Experience shows that this rudimentary approach when applied to mid-sized prospects often leaves value on the table. Recognizing and explicitly factoring in the inherent uncertainties, downstream development decisions, dependence between prospects and clustering can add considerable value.

Through a case study of SDG's work for a leading global oil major, we showcase how Precision Tree helped us evolve a rapid and scalable prospect evaluation methodology. We used a complex decision tree with tens of thousands of nodes in order to devise the optimum strategy for a highly risky exploration block having a set of dependent prospects.

  Introduction to Optimization and BigPitcure

Aman Bajaj
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

Do you know what kind of problems optimization solves? Is optimization too complex? Have you ever considered implementing optimization in your business? Should you attempt to build an optimization model yourself, or hire an external provider? Did you know that optimization can help your company to save money? Can you tell your goals, from your variables, from your constraints? In this short presentation we will evaluate optimization methods, present basic concepts, discuss case studies, and list the various benefits of using optimization. We will also look at how BigPicture helps by combining the power of both visuals and spreadsheets—all right in Excel. BigPicture allows you to translate your brainstorming process into a dynamic map of ideas and options that are easy to view and update.

  Regaining Hope: Ensuring Indian Mega-Project Scope and Schedule Performance

Chakradhar Iyyunni
L&T Institute of Project Management

Contextual basis for evaluating Indian Mega-Project Performance is discussed as a series of evolving uncertainties clouding project execution. We do not succeed because we expect failure. We demonstrate, if we allow ourselves, that a range of possibilities exist, hence, Hope . Using quantitative risk analysis, we integrate ways to deal with barriers stemming from poor forecasting [Sen/Dreze] to poor decision making [Flyvbjerg]. We assess impact, show Hope, by studying cascading and compounding mechanisms of risk. ​

  Liability Driven Investment Strategies for Individuals using Monte Carlo Method

Viswanathan M.B.
Money Shastra

» Download the presentation

In the presentation Viswanathan would be demonstrating Money Shastra’s innovative approach to liability driven investment strategies for individuals using the Monte Carlo method. The idea of this presentation is to expose participants to a completely different approach on risk profiling and strategic asset allocation than what is commonly practiced in today’s financial planning and wealth management arena.

  Application of @RISK in Reinsurance Optimisation

Vishwanath Mahendra
Apollo Munich Health Insurance

» Download the presentation

The fundamental business of Insurance Company is to deal with risk. They take risk from individual policyholders, manage the same and thereby create value for various stakeholders including Investors. In this respect the Risk Management becomes imperative. Monte Carlo Simulation has role to play in various facets of an insurance company, like, product pricing, reserving, forecasting solvency position, capital management, etc. The topic of this presentation is “Application of @Risk in Reinsurance Optimisation” where it is explained how @Risk can be used to apply Monte Carlo Simulation in constructing Reinsurance treaties for the benefit of the Insurer.

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New Delhi

The Claridges New Delhi
12 Dr. A P J Abdul Kalam Road, India
T: +91 11 3955 5000
For more information, see the hotel website.

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