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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
November 10, 2016 Cape Town
2016
2016




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

November 10th, 2016 • Cape Town

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day conference in Cape Town. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company


“Very impressive and good chance to link with colleagues.”

Michael Pemberton, Operations Research Analyst, Pueblo Community College (ret.)


“Excellent conference. Very informative. Great topics.”

Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk Management at CenterPoint Energy


“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


“Another great conference - well done! It's always a stimulating and thought-provoking experience, and great hospitality.”

Michael Brand, Captum Capital

Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer two types of sessions to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Networking Opportunities – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. Lunches, breaks and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2016 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2016 include Bangalore, New Delhi, Munich, Amsterdam, Edinburgh, Moscow and Cape Town.

Information about 2016 Conferences

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Thursday 10 November 2016

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:15
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri, Director
Palisade Corporation

9:15 - 10:15
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Will van der Merwe
Palisade Corporation

10:15 - 10:35
Break
10:35 - 11:20
CASE STUDY

Business Interruption Insurance: A Telco Case Study
Jaco van Der Merwe, Shuaib Ghoor
Deloitte South Africa

11:20 - 12:05
12:05 - 1:00
Lunch
1:00 - 1:45
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Optimization, Decision Tree and BigPicture
Will van der Merwe
Palisade Corporation

1:45 - 2:30
CASE STUDY

What Would You Pay for a Mothballed Platinum Mine?
David Holland
Credit Suisse

2:30 - 2:50
Break
2:50 - 3:35
CASE STUDY

"rPIM" - Incorporating Uncertainty Into Engineering Design
Quinton van Eeden
TPG GRC

3:35 - 3:40
Closing Remarks


Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

3:40 - 4:40
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  Jaco van Der Merwe

Director
Deloitte South Africa

Jaco is the director responsible for heading up the Short Term Insurance Actuarial practice for Deloitte in South Africa. Jaco has over 12 years of actuarial consulting experience and is the appointed statutory actuary to a number of Short Term Insurers both locally and abroad. He has also designed numerous software tools such as stochastic reserving, pricing and capital optimisation models for a range of clients, including Government bodies, Insurers, Medical Schemes, TelCo companies and Motor manufacturers. He serves on the Short Term Insurance Committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa and chairs the Professional Guidance subcommittee. He was involved in the syllabus development of the South Africa professional actuarial examinations and was previously an examiner for the South African actuarial fellowship exams. He often presents to professional bodies such as ASSA, SAICA and IISA on a wide range of topics including Solvency II/SAM/FCR, Avian Flu, Pricing, Reinsurance, Capital & Reserving and other regulatory matters.

  Quinton van Eeden PMI-RMP PMP

Risk and Value Management Specialist
TPG GRC

Quinton is a decision analysis, quantitative risk analyst and value management specialist with more than 15 years’ experience in programme/project risk management. He is a lawyer by training and holds advanced level professional certifications in project- and project risk management. He specialises in project risk management and the application of quantitative analysis techniques to model and simulate the effect of uncertainty on project schedules and estimates.

  Shuaib Ghoor

Senior Actuarial Analyst
Deloitte South Africa

Shuaib is a senior actuarial analyst at Deloitte South Africa’s Short Term Insurance Actuarial practice. Shuaib has over 4 years of actuarial consulting experience both locally and abroad. He has designed, maintained and enhanced various tools such as stochastic capital projection, reserving and pricing models for a range of clients, including Government bodies, Insurers and Motor manufacturers. He also has experience in the development of asset and liability matching tools for non-traditional insurance companies and optimisation models for TelCo companies. Shuaib has experience in a wide range of actuarial and risk modelling software platforms. He has performed numerous independent reviews, on a wide range of models. He serves on the Actuarial Society of South Africa’s Exposure Research Working Group.

  David Holland

Senior Advisor
Credit Suisse Europe

David Holland is an independent consultant who serves as a senior advisor to Credit Suisse Europe and an adjunct professor at the University of Cape Town Graduate School of Business. Until 2011, he was a managing director at Credit Suisse based in London. David was in charge of HOLT Valuation and Analytics, the research and development arm of Credit Suisse HOLT, and ran their global Custom Solutions Group. He was responsible for improvements to the cash flow return on investment (CFROI) framework and other Credit Suisse valuation models; the development of custom solutions and investment products based on the group’s intellectual property; and the generation of content for fund managers.

David joined CSFB in May 2002 from Fractal Value Advisors, a corporate strategy and finance advisory business he owned in South Africa. Fractal advised on the use of the HOLT CFROI framework at South Africa's leading corporations, parastatals and asset management firms.

David's experience is quite varied. Before becoming expert on the measurement of cash flow, he was an expert in measuring fluid flow, giving presentations throughout the world on the subject of rheology. David holds degrees in chemical engineering from the University of Illinois (BS) and Stanford University (MS). He earned his MBA at the University of Cape Town. He recently earned a professional certificate in Strategic Decision and Risk Management from Stanford University. He has presented at investment conferences, lectured at universities and written a book on equity valuation, "Beyond Earnings: A User’s Guide to Excess Return Models and the HOLT CFROI Framework." David lectures at the University of Cape Town Graduate School of Business.

  Dr. Francois Joubert

Principal Consultant
Kwanto Risk Management Ltd

Francois Joubert is a project risk management specialist. He graduated as a mechanical engineer in 1994 and has since obtained a MEng (Technology Management), MBA and MPhil (Ethics). He completed a PhD titled "Risk simulation in a portfolio of port and rail capital projects" in which he described an @RISK based model and framework which can be used to determine the most important risks in a portfolio of projects. In addition to his role as risk specialist, he has extensive experience on the systems and processes related to project management, construction management, project controls and quality management. He lectures Project Risk Management and Project Risk Simulation on post graduate level at the University of Pretoria as well as the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University in Port Elizabeth (South Africa).

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in Cape Town
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

  Conference Welcome & Introduction

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Palisade General Manager Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Business Interruption Insurance: A Telco Case study

Jaco van Der Merwe
Shuaib Ghoor
Deloitte South Africa

» Download the presentation

Business Interruption (or BI) insurance is a critical component of any business’ risk management solution set. Understanding exactly how much cover is enough is often a complex exercise, and impacts not only of the level of risk mitigation in the business but also directly on the expenses and bottom line, since insurance premiums are a material cost. For a business as intricate as that of a Telco the question is even more difficult to answer and all too often such vital decisions are made based on either gut-feel or based on prior year precedent, rather than on concrete analysis and quantification. In this simplified case study we highlight (based on an real-world exercise) how we used @Risk to replicate and model key features of a Telco business and how this translated into real, meaning numbers and conclusions. The outcome of this exercise highlights how putting a quantitative solution like this in place could not only save millions in BI premiums, but also provide extremely valuable input for optimising network design to reduce risk and exposure.

  Lessons Learned from Integrating the Project Estimate, Risk Register, and Schedule of Two Large Materials Handling Projects

Dr Francois Joubert
Kwanto Risk Management

» Download the presentation

The presentation discusses some lessons learned from two large materials handling projects in terms of the following:

  • Project context and phase.
  • Risk identification process.
  • How @RISK was used to do risk analysis and to determine the level of risk in the risk register, project estimate and schedule.
  • Reporting.

For the first project, the presentation considers the risk identification and quantification process in the risk register only, of a foreign manufactured large materials handling machine during the execution phase of the project. The lessons learned includes issues related to the level of risk management maturity at the contractors and phasing risk identification and analysis. The second example discusses how the risk register was integrated into the project cost estimate and schedule to determine "What Matters Most?" and "Where to focus?" for large materials handling machine and associated civil infrastructure, mostly during the project development phase of the project. The lessons here relate to how to integrate the risk register, project estimate and schedule as well as issues related to reporting.

  What Would You Pay for a Mothballed Platinum Mine? Generating Insights from Decision Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulations

David Holland
Credit Suisse Europe

» Download the presentation

A platinum mine was mothballed due to unprofitability. You have a chance to buy it. At what platinum price should it be re-commissioned? What is the mine’s expected value? What are the probabilities of the mine exceeding specific values?

This is a typical problem resource companies encounter when trying to decide if they should re-commission mothballed assets or mothball unprofitable operations. It is exacerbated by the high volatility of resource prices and other uncertainties. Decision trees and Monte Carlo simulations were employed to model a stylised example, and determine expected value and risk. Uncertainty should not be ignored or side-stepped by inappropriate assumptions. Modelling and quantifying uncertainty can create tremendous value.

  "rPIM" - Incorporating Uncertainty Into Engineering Design

Quinton van Eeden
TPG GRC

» Download the presentation

Current engineering design practice has the ability to achieve “5D” status by incorporating schedule (4D) and cost (5D) variables into current standard 3D engineering design – the latter being a visualisation of the design intent of the capital asset.

This ability (commonly referred to as BIM) provides an information model of all aspects of the capital asset with specifications, dimensions, quantity take-offs and functions detailed and all potential construction sequencing and spatial conflicts resolved prior to actual construction taking place. The value proposition of this approach is the apparent predictability of outcomes which appeals to all project stakeholders.

But how confident are you that the 5D model is in fact accurate and that outcomes are predictable?

3D engineering design is deterministic in nature in that single-point design specification values are used as inputs into the information model. By contrast, both schedule and cost variables are stochastic in nature, subject to various levels of uncertainty as sources of risk – and which have been consistently identified as the source of cost and schedule overruns.

The presentation will therefore examine the approach to incorporate uncertainty ("risk") into the project information model of a current capital asset project, in order to quantify the effects of uncertainty on cost and schedule objectives specifically.

Cape Town

Century City Conference Centre and Hotel
No. 4 Energy Lane
Bridgeways Precinct
Century City
7441
+27 (0) 21 204 8000
For more information, see the Hotel website

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