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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
June 14, 2016 Amsterdam
2016
2016




Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

June 14th, 2016 • Amsterdam

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

On June 14th, we brought our popular Regional Risk Conference series to The Netherlands again, gathering in Amsterdam at the Wyndham Apollo Hotel. This event explored quantitative risk and decision analysis for professionals across a range of industries. Around 30 attendees represented various interests, from banking, insurance, management consulting, energy to even construction/engineering and project risk management.

The Conference was opened by Craig Ferri, Managing Director, Palisade EMEA & India, who gave an Introduction to Palisade, followed by a presentation on "The World of Probabilistic Analysis”. Over the course of the day there were in-depth software demonstration sessions from Peter Vanneck, Palisade Consultant, who introduced @RISK, as well as showed how to find the right distribution.

View presentations from the 2016 Palisade Risk Conference in Amsterdam

Throughout the day a number of interesting case studies were presented by guest speakers:

  • From Van Oord Shipmanagement - Emile 't Gilde - “Procurement Decisions”
  • From Royal HaskoningDHV - Jacek Pachocki - “Risk management at the Noord-Zuidlijn, the new metro line in Amsterdam”
  • From EpiX Analytics - Huybert Groenendaal - “Lessons from @RISK case-studies: How to Build Accurate and Decision-Focused @RISK models?”
  • From Leiden University Medical Centre - Job Kievit - “Using @RISK to quantify attributable risk and proportional liability”
  • From Ballast Nedam Construction - Kees Vermeij- “Probabilistic Cost Engineering”

Delegates took advantage of the chance to network with each other as well as communicate with Palisade experts, who helped participants, improve their understanding of the topics and gain useful insight to issues they may have been facing.

If you want to find out more about this or any of our upcoming conferences visit www.palisade.com/Conf/.

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Tuesday 14 June 2016

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:15
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri, Director
Palisade Corporation

9:15 - 10:15
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Peter Vanneck
Palisade Corporation

10:15 - 10:35
Networking Break
10:35 - 11:20
CASE STUDY

Procurement Decisions
Emile 't Gilde
Van Oord Shipmanagement

11:20 - 12:05
CASE STUDY

Risk management at the Noord-Zuidlijn, the new metro line in Amsterdam
Jacek Pachocki
Royal HaskoningDHV

12:05 - 1:05
Networking Lunch
1:05 - 1:50
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Finding the right Distribution
Peter Vanneck
Palisade Corporation

1:50 - 2:35
2:35 - 2:55
Networking Break
2:55 - 3:40
CASE STUDY

Using @RISK to quantify attributable risk and proportional liability
Job Kievit
Leiden University Medical Centre

3:40 - 4:25
CASE STUDY

Probabilistic Cost Engineering
Kees Vermeij
Ballast Nedam Construction

4:25 - 4:30
Closing Remarks


Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

4:30 - 5:30
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  Huybert Groenendaal

Managing partner
EpiX Analytics

Dr. Huybert Groenendaal is a managing partner at EpiX Analytics, a consultancy that helps clients use Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic modeling in a broad range of industries and fields, ranging from financial risk analysis, business development, marketing, budgeting, inventory optimization, and pricing, to risk analysis in health. Dr. Groenendaal has extensive experience in risk modeling and analysis for business development, financial valuation, R&D portfolios and portfolio evaluations in pharmaceuticals and medical devices. Dr. Groenendaal also teaches a variety of risk analysis training courses including Financial Risk Modeling for Pharmaceuticals, Quantitative Risk Analysis, and Corporate Finance Risk Analysis and customized on-site courses. He also lectures on the use of risks modeling in business at the executive MBA program at the Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado and teaches an online risk analysis courses at Statistics.com. Dr. Groenendaal has an MBA in Finance from the Wharton School of Business and PhD from Wageningen University and is affiliate faculty at Colorado State University.

  Job Kievit

Prof. of Quality in Healthcare
Leiden University Medical Centre

Prof Job Kievit, MD, PhD, is a surgeon, and since 2012 professor of Quality in Healthcare at the Leiden University Medical Centre, and chief of the LUMC-Quality of Care-Institute. Prior to this professorship, he was a professor of Clinical Decision Analysis for 16 years, and chief of the LUMC Medical Decision Making Unit. Through this combined clinical and analytic expertise, he serves/has served on various (inter)national committees, such as the Dutch Health Council, the Advisory Council on Health Research (as vice-chair), the Advisory Committee on Package (ACP) of the Health Institute Netherlands (ZINL), the NFU Quality of Care Consortium, and (as LUMC-representative) in the Rd. Foster Global Comparators initiative. His particular interest lies in the tension between the macro and micro levels of care, between policy making on the one hand, and the perspective of individual patients and their caregivers on the other.

  Jacek Pachocki

Senior Consultant
Royal HaskoningDHV

Jacek Pachocki is a Senior Consultant at Royal HaskoningDHV. He has been assigned to the Municipality of Amsterdam to work on the Noord-Zuidlijn project where he fulfills the role of cost estimator, risk manager and planning manager. He designs and builds deterministic, probabilistic and parametric calculation models to run simulations, examine what-if scenarios, analyze data. He is a member of Special Interest Group Parametric Analysis and Special Interest Group Probabilistic Risk Analysis of the Dutch Association of Cost Engineers (DACE).

  Emile ‘t Gilde

Procurement Officer CAPEX
Van Oord Shipmanagement

Studied Logistics in Amsterdam, shipyard - quality manager, proposal manager (‘93-‘99), subcontracting manager at an international shipbuilder (’99-’06), Program manager naval architect and marine engineering (‘06-’07), head of purchasing at Van Oord (’08-’12); ad interim supply chain manager for Van Oord project at a insolvent shipyard for newbuilding of windfarm installation vessel Aeolus ( ’12-’14). Procurement officer CAPEX (’14-now)/p>

  Peter Vanneck

Trainer and Consultant
Palisade Corporation

Peter Vanneck is a trainer and consultant for Palisade Corporation. Peter is a part-time professor and academic director in the Master of Real Estate program at the Antwerp Management School (Business School of the University of Antwerp in Belgium), where he also teaches simulation with @RISK. Peter graduated as an agricultural engineer at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium and obtained later on a Ph.D. in environmental engineering at the University of Ghent, of which 2 years for his Ph.D. research were spent at the University of Texas at Austin in the U.S.A. He worked for almost 10 years in the environmental remediation arena, as well as consultant for a few international environmental consulting companies as project engineer and technical director for the environmental division of the DEME group (Dredging Environmental and Marine Engineering). Since 2004 he is active as a founding partner of an investment company specializing in brownfield redevelopment and complex real estate development. In 2006 he also obtained a Master in Real Estate and since then he is also MRICS certified by the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (www.rics.org). Through his own consulting company he also provides independent advice on business decision making primarily regarding environmental and real estate problems focusing on feasibility studies, investment analysis, cost calculations, (real option) valuation and business plan development using simulation and modeling techniques.

  Kees Vermeij

Head Estimating Dept
Ballast Nedam Construction

Kees Vermeij is working 40 Years for several large Dutch Contractors, the last 10 years for Ballast Nedam.

He worked on large Civil and Industrial projects both in the Netherlands as well as abroad, the last 25 years mainly in Cost Engineering . Since 15 Years as Head of Estimating Department / Cost Engineering.

Started using probabilistic estimating nearly 6 Years ago and developed for Ballast their own model.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in Amsterdam
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

  Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Palisade General Manager Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Peter Vanneck
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

This presentation will give an entry-level introduction to @RISK using some industry examples and provide an overview of simulation methods and their role in decision making and risk quantification as well as their relationship to sensitivity, scenario analysis and optimization. We will also highlight some core principles in the design of risk models.

  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Emile ‘t Gilde
Van Oord Shipmanagement

» Download the presentation

Brief introduction of the company, what we do and what I do. The big picture of the procurement process and how @Risk helps in quick analysis. How @RISK aids to the risk management process. Evaluation process of the different procurement directions and how @RISK helps in the evaluation (by using models). Not in depth statistical details, more the procurement processes and how @RISK supports.

  Risk management at the Noord-Zuidlijn, the new metro line in Amsterdam

Jacek Pachocki
Royal HaskoningDHV

Amsterdam is building a new metro line, the Noord-Zuidlijn. Due to major setbacks the expected construction time and the costs are well passed what was originally foreseen. The Project Management Department in general and the Risk Management Team in particular take care that the remaining existing risks are timely detected, monitored and mitigated. The possible financial consequences of those risks are simulated using calculation models based on @RISK.

  Finding the right Distribution

Peter Vanneck
Palisade Corporation

» Download the presentation

This session covers the choice of the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will also discuss the availability of compound processes and highlight some potential pitfalls associated with distribution approximations.

  Lessons from @RISK case-studies: How to Build Accurate and Decision-Focused @RISK models?

Huybert Groenendaal
EpiX Analytics

» Download the presentation

How do you develop and build accurate @RISK models? What distributions should you use? Should you include correlations in your model, and if so, what is the best way to do this? How to best present results to support decisions?

The objective of this session is to help answer the previous questions in a practical manner using a variety of real-life case studies. Emphasis will be on a specialty chemical company that deals with many uncertainties in its business development efforts, while working on build a balanced portfolio of projects.

Real-life @RISK example models will be shown during this presentation.

  Using @RISK to quantify attributable risk and proportional liability

Job Kievit
Leiden University Medical Centre

» Download the presentation

In medical liability cases two ways of reasoning collide. On the one hand, legal reasoning seeks a clear-cut answer on the question whether a person or agent is yes or no guilty of having caused harm, using an almost causal-deterministic approach. On the other hand the practice of medicine is highly probabilistic, using scientific evidence for the notion that not only can one cause have many outcome-consequences, but also that likewise one outcome may have many causes. In statistics and epidemiology such 'causes' are indicated by the term 'determinants', and determinant-outcome relationships are quantified using odds ratio’s or relative risks.

The present legal case dealt with the fate of a pregnant young woman with a slight and variable pregnancy related hypertension, who suffered a severe stroke in the course of the birth of her child. The case focuses on the issue whether the quality of care provided, and in particular the substandard monitoring of blood pressure, had caused the stroke and the consequent health damage. The essence of the legal controversy is as follows:

  • the plaintiff argued that care quality had been substandard, and that (unobserved and thus uncorrected) blood pressure elevation had caused the harm, while
  • the defendant argued that giving birth is a high risk situation per se, and that the stroke could just as well have occurred when care quality would have been flawless

This legal deadlock persisted for almost ten years, after which parties agreed on a proportional liability approach, based on evidence based simulation.

A simulation model was created for two scenario’s: an ‘as it went‘-scenario and an ‘intensive monitoring’-scenario, the latter simulation the care that should have been provided according to professional standards. The results of simulation of 2 x 100.000 cases in @RISK indicated a 20% attributable risk, providing arguments in favour of a 20% (evidence based) proportional liability. The court accepted the model and its results, but decided on a not-guilty verdict, because of the low probability of events in both scenarios.

Both technical and (some of the) legal-societal aspects of the case will be discussed.

  Probabilistic Cost Engineering

Kees Vermeij
Ballast Nedam Construction

» Download the presentation

The chances and pitfalls for Probabilistic Cost Engineering in infrastructure Projects using @RISK Pro’s and cons in Estimating and Cost Control

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Amsterdam

Wyndham Apollo Hotel Amsterdam
Apollolaan 2
1077 BA Amsterdam (ingang Stadionweg)
T: +31 (0)20 673 5922
For more information, see the hotel website

Palisade Corporation
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