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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
August 4, 2015 New York
2015
2015
  PALISADE

Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

August 4th, 2015 • New York

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day conference in New York. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“Very good conference with good usage of time.”

Mark Mendonca, Program Risk Management, Ernst & Young


“Excellent conference. If there are numbers that vary, you should be here.”

George Chiang, Independent Cost Analyst, Boeing Company


“Excellent conference. Very informative. Great topics.”

Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk Management at CenterPoint Energy


“It was a great conference that was very well organized. The round tables were great. As always, I would highly recommend your conference to others. Lastly, @RISK v6 and the interface with MS Project is great.”

Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP, Manager - Business Solutions and Risk Management / Vice President Cardno Entrix


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“It was an outstanding opportunity to update current knowledge about the software.”

Dr José Raúl Castro Esparza, BUAP


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


“Another great conference - well done! It's always a stimulating and thought-provoking experience, and great hospitality.”

Michael Brand, Captum Capital

Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer two types of sessions to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Networking Opportunities – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. Lunches, breaks and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2015 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2015 include Rio de Janeiro, Johannesburg, Madrid, Melbourne, Munich, São Paulo, Oslo, Moscow, Zurich, London, Dubai and New Orleans.

Information about 2015 Conferences

Schedule

  Networking Sessions      
   Software Presentations      
  Industry Case Studies

Tuesday 4 August 2015

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration
9:00 - 9:15
WELCOME

Welcome and Conference Introduction
Dave Bristol
Palisade Corporation

9:15 - 10:00
CASE STUDY

Value and Risk - Residual Cash Earnings and Monte Carlo Simulation
Marwaan Karame
Fortuna Advisors

10:05 - 10:50
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Applying @RISK to Your Unique Situation
Fernando Hernandez
Palisade Corporation

10:50 - 11:15
Break
11:15 - 12:00
12:00 - 12:45
Lunch
12:45 - 1:30
CASE STUDY

Ensemble Models for Superior Risk Analysis
Albert Fensterstock
Albert Fensterstock Associates

1:35 - 2:20
CASE STUDY

Building Realistic Health Care Claim Models for Capital Modeling
Dave Wilson, Tim Robinson, Kris Rountree
Windsor Strategy Partners

2:20 - 2:45
Break
2:45 - 3:30
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Value at Risk (Var) Model for an Investment Portfolio
Fernando Hernandez
Palisade Corporation

3:35 - 4:00
Closing Remarks

Final Thoughts: Stepping Up Your Decision-Making
Randy Heffernan
Palisade Corporation

4:00 - 6:00
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Dave Bristol

Sales Manager
Palisade Corporation

Dave Bristol has been with Palisade since 1997 and worked out of the Ithaca HQ for over a decade before moving to Vermont in 2009. Dave started out in marketing, and then spent some time working with the QA team. In 2002, he oversaw the opening of Palisade’s first regional office, Palisade Europe in London. Upon returning to the states he joined the sales team and has been the US Eastern Region Sales manager for the last decade. His interest in sports analytics dovetails nicely with Palisade’s simulation and decision analysis software packages, and his love of fishing serves as a constant reminder that nothing can be predicted with 100% certainty.

  Albert Fensterstock

Managing Director
Albert Fensterstock Associates

Albert Fensterstock (Albie) is Managing Director of Albert Fensterstock Associates, a consulting company that specializes in the development and implementation of decision support systems based on various types of predictive analytics including statistical analysis, neural networks (ensemble models) and simulation technology. Their solutions are frequently used to improve management and operational efficiency and to improve risk analysis capability and collection department efficiency. Albie founded CreditRiskMonitor.com Inc., the first Internet-based financial information analysis and news service created specifically for the corporate credit function. Credit Today has named him one of the 50 most influential people in credit.

  Randy Heffernan

Vice President
Palisade Corporation

Randy Heffernan started with Palisade in 1997, and helped the company expand with its first overseas office in Plymouth, England, in 1998. Further geographic expansions included London in 2002 and Sydney, Australia in 2005. He has held a variety of roles in sales, marketing, and management, and currently oversees much of the corporate operations. Randy works closely with the sales staff to understand client needs and liaise with software development. Randy holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Management and Marketing, and an MBA, both from Cornell University.

  Fernando Hernández

Senior Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Fernando Hernández' areas of expertise are banking, finance, manufacturing, project evaluation, market forecasting and pricing. Fernando currently owns and operates InfoMasters, a company geared towards training, consulting and developing financial applications and decision making models for financial and manufacturing companies, using Microsoft Office and Palisade software. He has developed and taught courses including Intro to Corporate Finance, and Financial Simulation and Investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has created financial models, risk analyses and feasibility studies using @RISK. Fernando earned his licentiate degree in Finance Administration from the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar, he completed his MBA at Indiana University majoring in Finance & MIS.

  Chris Johnson

Process Engineer
Biogen

Chris Johnson has worked for Biogen Idec (now simply Biogen) for the past four years as a Process Engineer in the Operations Technology and Innovation department. Chris has been involved in various areas of engineering simulation, including computational fluid dynamics modeling, biologics drug substance manufacturing facility analytics, new technology financial modeling, and risk assessment. Before joining Biogen, he received a Bachelor’s in Engineering Sciences and a Master’s in Engineering Management from Dartmouth College.

  Marwaan Karame

Consultant
Fortuna Advisors

Marwaan Karame is a Vice President for Fortuna Advisors, consulting businesses from a variety of industries, including Automotive, Food & Beverage, Healthcare, Industrial Manufacturing, and Oil & Gas. By applying managerial and financial economics to strategic planning, process improvement, financial reporting, incentive compensation design, and executive training, he assists CEOs in maximizing value and generating long-term excess returns for shareholders.

Previously, Mr. Karame worked in investment banking for Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette (DLJ) and Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) advising companies in the areas of M&A, Private Placement, Debt Financing, and IPOs.

Prior to DLJ and CSFB, he worked as a Value Based Management (VBM) Consultant for Stern Stewart & Co., leading Fortune 500 companies to create sustainable gains to shareholder wealth by adopting the concepts of Economic Value Added (EVA).

Preceding Stern Stewart, he managed Ivey Business Consulting Group, a boutique business-consulting firm that served small to middle market companies. Mr. Karame started his professional career working for one of the world's top sales organizations, Xerox, where he managed executive relationships with Canada's largest companies, selling Xerox's high-end information technology and services.

Mr. Karame has been a keynote speaker for several Wall Street Research Analyst seminars and has conducted workshops for 1,000+ Fortune 500 executives, lecturing on the topics of Value Based Management and M&A.

Mr. Karame holds an MBA in finance from Richard Ivey School of Business at the University of Western Ontario and a B.Sc. in Mathematics and Economics from St. Lawrence University.

  David Wilson

President
Windsor Strategy Partners

David is the founder and President of Windsor Strategy Partners, LLC. Windsor Strategy Partners is specialized healthcare strategy firm helping clients develop and implement strategic growth initiatives. David leads the firm’s marketing and research effort and acting as a senior advisor to our clients and partners. David has been active in the health insurance arena for over 30 years. He is recognized as a leading expert in healthcare insurance and reinsurance. He has been a strategic advisor to start-up and established companies in the health insurance field.

David was the co-founder and Managing Director of the APEX Management Group; a healthcare actuarial firm located in Princeton, New Jersey. Prior to The Apex Management Group, Inc., David was Principal & senior healthcare actuary at Foster Higgins, a Principal at William M. Mercer, Vice President of the Home Life Insurance Company of New York and an officer of the Great-West Life Assurance Company.

David graduated with an MS in Statistics from the University of Manitoba. He is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, a Fellow of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries.

Abstracts

  Welcome and Conference Introduction

Dave Bristol
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Regional Sales Manager Dave Bristol will set the stage for maximizing the benefits you’ll receive from the conference. After reviewing the conference goals, he will give some context about Palisade as a company. He will then give a brief introduction to quantitative decision-making using @RISK, demonstrating the powerful methodology that underpins the case studies to follow.

  Value and Risk - Residual Cash Earnings and Monte Carlo Simulation

Marwaan Karame
Fortuna Advisors

Measuring value is a critical part of business decision making, whether it’s to invest in a new technology, product, or market segment or make an acquisition. Regardless of the investment, there are fundamental principles of finance and economics that determines what something is worth and the risk associated with it. In this brief introduction, we will quantify the uncertainty and risk that plagues most every business decision by utilizing a superior yet simplistic method of analysis known as Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, we question whether Cash is King? We explore the concepts of Residual Cash Earnings (a cash flow based version of Economic Value, Economic Value Added, EVA, Residual Income, or Economic Profit), and discuss its benefits in simplifying the Monte Carlo simulation by limiting the inputs to only five required value drivers.

  Applying @RISK to Your Unique Situation

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Senior Consultant Fernando Hernandez will draw on experience in several different industries to illustrate how you can apply Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques to your situation. We’ll review models taken from real-world problems in supply chain, project management, banking, and other sectors. You’ll experience straightforward Excel spreadsheet models as well as more robust, customized solutions built on @RISK using VBA. @RISK and other tools in the DecisionTools Suite will be touched upon.

  Managing Uncertainty in Biologics Drug Substance Manufacturing Capacity Forecasting

Chris Johnson
Biogen

The pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries are both characterized by the need to manage risk and uncertainty on several levels: risks to patients from potent therapies, risks to investors from uncertain pipeline readouts, and risks to corporate profitability from shifting regulations in a dynamic global political environment. The biopharmaceutical industry faces unique risks to supplying patient populations due to the scale, complexity, and capital cost of producing drug substance from biological sources. Biogen uses risk management technologies such as @RISK software to incorporate pipeline, supply chain, and market uncertainties into decision making surrounding capital outlays for drug substance manufacturing capacity. This presentation will share one of the risk management approaches Biogen uses to prepare for discrete outcome scenarios that influence the company’s ability to supply the market with the amount of drug substance it needs when it needs it.

  Ensemble Models for Superior Risk Analysis

Albert Fensterstock
Albert Fensterstock Associates

» Download the presentation

An ensemble model is the product of combining diverse models (neural networks, random forests, decision trees, etc.) in an attempt to produce one that is stronger than any individual model. In this application, an ensemble model was used to determine the inherent risk in a given lease application. We show how the ensemble model was constructed by combining five different neural nets and resulted in a far better predictor of credit risk than any individual model developed during the model building process. Our presentation will review the entire model building process from start to finish including:

  • Analyzing several thousand randomly drawn accounts for the purpose of determining which of the over 100 variables available, to use in the individual neural models.
  • The ad-hoc procedure for creating approximately 100 neural nets from the data sample.
  • Determining which models should be included in the ensemble.
  • Determining how the selected models should be weighted.
  • Determining the maximum risk to take on an individual lease application.
  • Developing a procedure for monitoring the predictions, thereby, improving model results, over time.

Ensemble models can be used to predict almost anything. As an example, Netflix awarded $1 million to a team of scientists who developed an ensemble model that best improved their recommendation system’s ability to predict which movies their subscribers will like.

  Building Realistic Health Care Claim Models for Capital Modeling

David Wilson
Windsor Strategy Partners

» Download the presentation

How do we make a healthcare risk simulation model more realistic? This session will examine considerations for recognizing “parameter risk” when modeling healthcare claims. What are the sources of this risk and how can we reflect them in our models? We will review practical techniques for making healthcare risk models more realistic and ultimately more useful for capital modeling.

  Value at Risk (Var) Model for an Investment Portfolio

Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

The VaR of a portfolio at a future point in time is usually considered as the loss in value of a portfolio at a certain point in time given a certain confidence level. Thus, considering the price change of a portfolio of financial assets and their correlation, it is possible to simulate the VaR of the portfolio at different levels of confidence intervals. This methodology performed with Monte Carlo simulation allows overcoming the inherent disadvantages of traditional parametric methods of calculating VaR; i.e., the possibility of incorporating nonlinear assets in the portfolio and the possibility of considering non-normal returns.

The objective of the model consists in determining the value at risk (VaR) of the portfolio under conditions of asset correlations. Moreover, the model also contains an automatically updated feature in order to forecast the predicted value of the portfolio versus its actual performance. This allows the establishment of a daily management system for subsequently controlling stress tests and systems for assembling and self -calibrating the model thru back testing.

Through a forecasting methodology via time series, this model stochastically predicts correlated prices of the instruments that make up the portfolio. The time series methods and Monte Carlo simulation work together as complementary methodologies in order to forecast the value of the investment portfolio and therefore the calculation of VaR.

  Final Thoughts: Stepping Up Your Decision-Making

Randy Heffernan
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Vice President Randy Heffernan will close the conference with thoughts on questions you’ve undoubtedly been asked: “What is risk analysis and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many cases, and even now companies still struggle to understand risk. How do we avoid missteps, and how can we apply probabilistic methods most effectively?

Hyatt Regency San Francisco Airport


The Palisade Risk Conference will be held at the beautiful Hyatt Regency San Francisco Airport.

Address: 1333 Old Bayshore Hwy, Burlingame, CA 94010
Phone: (650) 347 1234
Website: Hyatt Regency San Francisco Airport

Palisade Corporation
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800 432 RISK (US/Can)
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