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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
January 13, 2015 Mumbai
2015
2015
  PALISADE

Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

January 13th, 2015 • Mumbai

Delegates Gather in Mumbai for a Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

On January 13th, we brought our popular Risk Conference series to India’s financial capital, Mumbai, for the first time, gathering at the Palladium Hotel. This event explored quantitative risk and decision analysis for professionals across a range of industries. More than 80 attendees represented various interests, from banking, insurance, management consulting, energy to even construction/engineering and project risk management.

The Conference was opened by Craig Ferri, Managing Director, Palisade EMEA & India, who gave an Introduction to Palisade, followed by a presentation on "The World of Probabilistic Analysis.” Over the course of the day there were in-depth software demonstration sessions from Sarah Sherry, Trainer and Consultant at Palisade, and Aman Bajaj, Business Development Manager for India who introduced @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite. Examples of solutions from Finance, Manufacturing, and Project Management were presented to delegates.

Throughout the day a number of highly educational case studies were presented by guest speakers:

  • From L&T Institute of Project Management - Dr. Chakradhar Iyyunni - “Insights into Schedule Risks from Quantitative Analysis”
  • From BluOpal Advisors LLP - Shashi Ranjan Kumar - “Modeling Return Optimization on Stocks / Indices Futures and Options”
  • From S. P. Jain Institute of Management & Research - Dr. R. Sesha Iyer - “Teaching Decision Modeling to MBA Students”.
  • From The Energy and Resources Institute - Anandajit Goswami – “Application of @RISK Software for Rare Event Analysis such as Accidents.”
  • From Institute of Actuaries - Vanita Duggal – “Modelling Uncertainty in Claims Experience to Price General Insurance Contracts.”

» Download presentations in the Abstracts section

Delegates took advantage of the chance to network with each other as well as communicate with Palisade experts, who helped participants, improve their understanding of the topics and gain useful insight to issues they may have been facing.

To find out more about this or any of our upcoming conferences, visit http://www.palisade.com/Conf/.

Join a Global Group

The 2015 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2015 include Rio de Janeiro, Johannesburg, Madrid, Melbourne, Munich, São Paulo, Oslo, Moscow, Zurich, London, Dubai and New Orleans.

Information about 2015 Conferences

Schedule

  Networking Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Tuesday 13 January 2015

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

08:30 - 09:30
Registration and Coffee
09:30 - 10:00
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri, Director
Palisade Corporation

10:00 - 11:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis with @RISK
Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

11:00 - 11:20
Break
11:20 - 12:00
CASE STUDY

Insights into Schedule Risks from Quantitative Analysis
Dr. Chakradhar Iyyunni
L&T Institute of Project Management

12:00 - 12:40
CASE STUDY

Modeling Return Optimization on Stocks / Indices Futures and Options
Shashi Ranjan Kumar
BluOpal Advisors LLP

12:40 - 1:40
Lunch
1:40 - 2:20
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Selecting the Right Distribution in @RISK 6
Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

2:20 - 3:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

50 Shades of Optimization with RISKOptimizer
Aman Bajaj
Palisade Corporation

3:00 - 3:20
Break
3:20 - 4:00
CASE STUDY

Teaching Decision Modeling to MBA Students
Dr. R. Sesha Iyer
S. P. Jain Institute of Management & Research

4:00 - 4:40
CASE STUDY

Application of @RISK Software for Rare Event Analysis such as Accidents
Anandajit Goswami
The Energy and Resources Institute

4:40 - 5:20
5:20 - 5:25
Closing Remarks



5:25 - 6:25
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Aman Bajaj

Regional Sales & Business Development Manager – India
Palisade Corporation

Aman joined Palisade towards the end of 2012 with a focus on growing the business for Palisade software and training services in India. During the last two years, Palisade has had considerable success in terms of winning new key customers on both the academic and industry side of the business in India. Aman holds a Bachelor of Engineering from Gulbarga University and also completed a Post Graduate Diploma in Capital and Financial Markets from Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, New Delhi. Having passed CFA Level 1 in 2010, he is also studying towards the next level of this certification.

  Vanita Duggal

Actuary
Institute of Actuaries

Vanita is a qualified actuary with more than ten years of experience in P&C commercial lines insurance for businesses in UK, Europe and USA. She has provided actuarial recommendations on reserving and financial reporting for various lines spanning property, general liability, marine, aviation, energy and speciality liability covers for directors and officers, architects, lawyers and other service professionals. She has handled several projects ranging from parameterising the capital model, assessing the cost of excess of loss reinsurance, performing a profitability study on captive accounts and preparing portfolio performance scorecards. She has extensively priced individual accounts for casualty business and delivered technical premium recommendations to underwriters. Vanita holds an honours bachelors degree in mathematics and is a qualified actuary from the Institute of Actuaries, India.

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  Anandajit Goswami

Fellow, Green Growth and Resource Efficiency
The Energy and Resources Institute

Anandajit Goswami is an economist by training and has been working on areas of socioeconomic modelling and scenario building, integrated CGE modelling for understanding policy relevant issues, risk modelling, climate policy, biofuel pricing and energy policy, resource security, trade and sustainable development, trade in biofuels, commodity trade, trade and governance issues, econometric modelling on trade issues and general equilibrium modelling to analyse aspects of resource security. He has also worked with United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and has coordinated research activities of TERI in Africa from 2009 – 2012 and has contributed in setting up TERI office in Africa with the support of Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre and Network. Currently, his core research is dealing with applications of computable general equilibrium modelling and macroeconomic modelling to understand green growth and development implications for developing and emerging countries. He is also engaged in macroeconomic general equilibrium and partial equilibrium modelling for understanding the implications of tax, subsidy changes on economic welfare of developing countries. Additionally, he is engaged in conducting rare event modelling by applying Monte Carlo simulation structures.

Goswami has been associated with The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) since 2004 and has led and worked on research projects pertaining to trade and sustainable development, economic modelling which has been supported by ICTSD (International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development),UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Sustainable Development). He has been associated with various South South Cooperation knowledge exchange processes with the support of UNECA, UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Developmental Organization), Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, Ministry of Water and Energy, Government of Ethiopia, Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre and Network, Addis Ababa University. He has published papers in peer reviewed journals and contributed chapters to books. He has co-authored a book titled “Sustainability Science for Social, Economic, and Environmental Development," and has co-authored a booklet on South South Cooperation and Knowledge Exchange issues. He has also edited a booklet related to regulatory issues on biofuels. He has been giving talks on “Integrated Modelling applying CGE”, “Economics of Sustainability” in TERI university and South South Knowledge exchange programmes. In addition, he has contributed popular articles in newspapers and blogs for Economist, Reuters Foundation. Presently, Anandajit is a member of International and Indian Society for Ecological Economics. He is pursuing Ph.d at TERI University and has obtained Masters in International Economics with Specialization in World Economy from the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

  Dr. R. Sesha Iyer

Director
S. P. Jain Institute of Management & Research

Dr. R. Sesha Iyer is Director of S. P. Jain Institute of Management & Research since 2007. Before joining SPJIMR, Dr. Iyer was the Principal of Fr. Conceicao Rodrigues College of Engineering, affiliated with the University of Mumbai. He joined the Engineering College from the time of its inception in 1984.

Before coming to Academics, Dr. Iyer worked for 14 years in Public Sector Undertakings, FACT, HMT, and Kochin Refineries. He has conducted many Management Development Programmes for corporations in the areas of Supply Chain Management and Six Sigma & Decision Science.

Iyer holds a BE in Mechanical Engineering, M.Tech in Production Engineering, Ph.D in Operations Management, and is also a Fellow of the Institute of Cost & Works Accountants of India.

  Shashi Ranjan Kumar, MBA

Partner
BluOpal Advisors LLP

Mr. Kumar completed his MBA education in 2013 from IIM Ahmedabad, India's most esteemed business school. He is also an alumnus of IIT Bombay. After publishing an international journal paper as an undergrad at IIT Bombay, Mr. Kumar led a team of four in MarketRx Pvt Ltd. and contributed significantly in the evolution of a European business from $30k to $6.5M in four years. He interned for Sequoia Capital private equity portfolio firm, where he worked on revenue growth strategy of the portfolio firm. A winner at RPG and Mahindra national business case competitions, Mr. Kumar also has interest in entrepreneurship, and has just started his own partnership firm, BluOpal Advisors LLP, with his colleague from IIM Ahmedabad. BluOpal is a hedge fund which employs proprietary strategies on stocks/ indices futures and options to generate a greater return than the market, with smaller risk than indices.

  Dr. Chakradhar Iyyunni

L&T Institute of Project Management

With 24+ years of academic and industrial research experience in oil & gas, energy utilities, and aerospace industries, and an earned Ph.D in Mechanical Engineering, Dr. Chakradhar Iyyunni conducts research on risk and decision-making. His goal is to create best practices by understanding experiential aspects of current projects. Grounded in optimization theory and nonlinear modeling, he believes that scientific, systematic and innovative project management techniques will lead to successful project execution. The focus on project control can be affected by scope or risk models, queuing theory-based scheduling concepts, communication protocols and managing people effectively. Dr. Iyyunni is a faculty member at the L&T Institute of Project Management.

  Sarah Sherry

Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Sarah Sherry is a software consultant for Palisade Corporation. Sarah was previously a Senior Lecturer at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. She taught spreadsheet modelling techniques and programs in the DecisionTools Suite for over thirteen years, and was nominated for the Kelley School’s highest teaching award four times, and received it once. After graduating, many of her former students and teaching assistants seek her advice and counsel in their places of work (accounting firms, loan departments, manufacturing operations, hospitals, political campaigns, and so on), on difficulties ranging from issues with data integrity to troubles in spreadsheet modeling.

Sarah collaborated with Dr Wayne Winston on two Harvard Business School Press courses, Spreadsheet Modeling and Mathematics for Management, and she is currently co-authoring an introductory business analytics textbook, to be published by Indiana University Press.

Sarah earned an M.A. in Applied Linguistics at Indiana University and completed the required coursework for a Ph.D. in Linguistics.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in Mumbai
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

  Conference Welcome & Introduction

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Palisade General Manager Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

Software Presentations

  50 Shades of Optimization with RISKOptimizer

Aman Bajaj
Palisade Corporation

Do you know what kind of problems optimization solves? Is optimization too complex? Have you ever considered implementing optimization in your business? Should you attempt to build an optimization model yourself, or hire an external provider? Did you know that optimization can help your company to save money? Can you tell your goals, from your variables, from your constraints?

In this short presentation we will evaluate optimization methods, present basic concepts, discuss case studies, and list the various benefits of using optimization. We will present RISKOptimizer models from Prof. Wayne Winston’s books based on real case studies, to help you build your first optimization model.

  Selecting the Right Distribution in @RISK 6

Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

This session covers the choice of the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.

Case Studies

  Insights into Schedule Risks from Quantitative Analysis

Dr. Chakradhar Iyyunni
L&T Institute of Project Management

» Download the presentation

Risk management framework and processes are becoming more important in today’s dynamic and uncertain environment. This talk will provide a brief look into new risk measures, risk parameters and discussion of process effectiveness. We will address estimating schedule risks that stem from uncertainty in resource availability, and plans via Monte Carlo simulation technique. We make two assertions: first, related to the need for 10-20% more effort than a most-likely estimate, and secondly, related to putting this extra effort in, say, 90%, of the schedule. Time permitting, we will propose new methods for understanding risk interactions and mechanisms.

  Modeling Return Optimization on Stocks / Indices Futures and Options

Shashi Ranjan Kumar
BluOpal Advisors LLP

» Download the presentation

The proposed presentation will aim to highlight the application of @RISK in capital market models. One of the most important parameters of any financial model is risk management. Also, there are multiple variables, such as momentum, P/E, volume, delivery, change in OI, etc., which impact the investment return analysis. These parameters need to be optimized simultaneously with risk controls. The proposed presentation will explore optimization when multiple variables are involved, as well as risk analysis with help of @RISK.

  Teaching Decision Modeling to MBA Students

Dr. R. Sesha Iyer
S. P. Jain Institute of Management & Research

This presentation will introduce the need for developing skills in decision making under uncertainty in a fast changing world, as well as stochastic models in Decision Science and the role of simulation. Dr. R. Sesha Iyer will also examine the application of simulation, and how to develop skills in simulation modeling. Applications in Operations and Supply Chain, Finance, and other fields will be discussed.

  Application of @RISK Software for Rare Event Analysis such as Accidents

Anandajit Goswami
The Energy and Resources Institute

» Download the presentation

The proposed presentation will aim to highlight the application of @RISK for rare event analysis. In order to do that, a particular rare event will be explored. In this case it will be severe accidents. Implications of severe accidents on energy value chain risks will be explored. The presentation will begin with a general framework of risk, and will then ascertain how severe accident-related risks in the energy value chain contribute to such a risk. The illustration will be done by means of an analytical framework with the application of @RISK software.

  Modelling Uncertainty in Claims Experience to Price General Insurance Contracts

Vanita Duggal
Institute of Actuaries

» Download the presentation

A substantial component of the premium charged to provide insurance cover, against you or your business' liability arising from unforeseen events, is the expected loss on your policy. So how do insurance companies estimate the cost of losses arising from events that may (or may not!) happen during the course of your cover? This presentation is aimed to give an insight into how insurance experts arrive at the number of claims you are likely to make in the next one year and how much would they cost. We look at how @RISK is being used in the Property & Casualty Insurance industry to model loss experience and price not just the conventional covers but also those with more complicated structures involving deductibles.

Palladium Hotel

The Palisade Risk Conference will be held at the beautiful Palladium Hotel, located at 462, Senapti Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400013. India.
For more information, see the hotel website.

Palisade Corporation
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