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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
May 21, 2015 Melbourne
2015
2015
  PALISADE

Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

May 21st, 2015 • Melbourne

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day conference in Melbourne. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“Very good conference with good usage of time.”

Mark Mendonca, Program Risk Management, Ernst & Young


“Excellent conference. If there are numbers that vary, you should be here.”

George Chiang, Independent Cost Analyst, Boeing Company


“Excellent conference. Very informative. Great topics.”

Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk Management at CenterPoint Energy


“It was a great conference that was very well organized. The round tables were great. As always, I would highly recommend your conference to others. Lastly, @RISK v6 and the interface with MS Project is great.”

Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP, Manager - Business Solutions and Risk Management / Vice President Cardno Entrix


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“It was an outstanding opportunity to update current knowledge about the software.”

Dr José Raúl Castro Esparza, BUAP


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


“Another great conference - well done! It's always a stimulating and thought-provoking experience, and great hospitality.”

Michael Brand, Captum Capital

Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer two types of sessions to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Networking Opportunities – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. Lunches, breaks and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2015 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2015 include Rio de Janeiro, Johannesburg, Madrid, Melbourne, Munich, São Paulo, Oslo, Moscow, Zurich, London, Dubai and New Orleans.

Information about 2015 Conferences

Schedule

  Networking Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Thursday 21 May 2015

Please note the conference schedule may change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration
9:00 - 9:15
WELCOME

Duncan Hickman
Palisade Corporation

9:15 - 10:15
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Fifty Shades of Decision Making
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

10:15 - 10:30
Break
10:30 - 11:30
11:30 - 12:30
CASE STUDY

Modelling uncertain construction costs in post-earthquake Christchurch
Dace Caldwell
PricewaterhouseCoopers

12:30 - 1:30
Lunch
1:30 - 2:30
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Risk Register Application
Fernando Hernández
Palisade Corporation

2:30 - 3:15
CASE STUDY

Betting on a Rainy Day
Ben Qin
Marsh & McLennan Companies

3:15 - 3:30
Break
3:30 - 4:15
CASE STUDY

Further Insights Into The Use of Monte Carlo to Evaluate New Ventures
Dr. Clint Steele
Swinburne University of Technology

4:15 - 5:00
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Optimisation with Evolver and RISKOptimizer
Rishi Prabhakar
Palisade Corporation

Presenters

  Fernando Hernández

Senior Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Fernando Hernández' areas of expertise are banking, finance, manufacturing, project evaluation, market forecasting and pricing. Fernando currently owns and operates InfoMasters, a company geared towards training, consulting and developing financial applications and decision making models for financial and manufacturing companies, using Microsoft Office and Palisade software. He has developed and taught courses including Intro to Corporate Finance, and Financial Simulation and Investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has created financial models, risk analyses and feasibility studies using @RISK. Fernando earned his licentiate degree in Finance Administration from the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar, he completed his MBA at Indiana University majoring in Finance & MIS.

  Dace Caldwell

Associate Director
PricewaterhouseCoopers

Dace is a specialist financial and risk modeller in PwC’s Corporate Finance practice, based in Christchurch, focusing on the primary, infrastructure and utilities sectors. Dace previously worked in the Auckland Finance & Economics team and remains a key member of the wider national advisory group. Dace has worked on a number of large and complex asset valuations for major energy, dairy, irrigation, electricity and utility providers in New Zealand, as well as risk modelling in the construction sector. He also has experience with business case preparation for commercial and public infrastructure projects (including the New Zealand Treasury’s Better Business Case framework). Dace is a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder and holds a BA in Economics and a BCom in Finance & Accounting from the University of Canterbury.

  Rishi Prabhakar

Trainer, Consultant
Palisade Corporation

Rishi brings a broad range of experience and expertise to the Palisade team. He has worked in and consulted to the energy industry, telecommunications, scientific research, banking, and finance with an emphasis on operational risk and Basel II. Rishi has expert skills in the areas of statistical analysis, simulation, time series forecasting, risk/capital modelling, extreme value theory, and survey design and analysis. He holds a BSc Mathematics from the University of Technology, Sydney.

  Ben Qin

Head of Analytics, Pacific; Head of Weather Specialty Products, Asia Pacific
Marsh & McLennan Companies

Ben’s current responsibilities within Marsh include managing a team of specialist practitioners in actuarial science and statistics, servicing a diverse range of client base across Australia, New Zealand and Asia-Pacific region. He is responsible for the roll-out of the Marsh iMap platform and Economic Cost of Risk analytics for clients in Australasia.

In particular, he has been involved as part of the insurance renewal process and supported some of Marsh’s largest clients, by providing key advice and recommendations on technical pricing, programme design, captive strategic retention plans, Risk Financing Optimisation reviews.

Before joining Marsh, Ben has worked as a consulting and corporate actuary in Australia, Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia in insurance pricing and Enterprise Risk Management.

  Dr. Clint Steele

Mechanical Engineer
Swinburne University of Technology

Clint Steele is a qualified mechanical engineer with a PhD in probabilistic design and a Master of Entrepreneurship and Innovation. He is currently based at Swinburne University, but worked in the areas of product development in Australia (Davey) and China (DETEKT) beforehand. His interest has always been the effects of randomness and the successful commercialization of new technologies.

Abstracts

  Introduction to @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite: Using Monte Carlo Simulation under Uncertainty

Rishi Prabhakar
PALISADE CORPORATION

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications for an entry-level introduction to @RISK and the other products in the DecisionTools Suite, to give you an excellent briefing on how to use and get the most from these tools.

The session begins with a tutorial on @RISK, walking you through a trial risk analysis using various example models. Key features of @RISK will be highlighted. You will experience the intuitive interface of @RISK as you define distributions, correlations, and other model components. During simulation, you will be able to see all charts, thumbnails, and reports update in real time, and can view your results with a variety of graphing and reporting options. We’ll also point out useful tricks to make risk modeling even easier.

The second half of the session will cover the DecisionTools Suite, an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty. You will learn how the products of the Suite — @RISK, RISKOptimizer, Evolver, PrecisionTree, TopRank, StatTools, and NeuralTools — work together to solve practical problems in the real world. We’ll demonstrate how these tools integrate completely with your Excel program, how to browse, define and analyze your data, and we’ll reveal key tips for using the products together.

  Modelling uncertain construction costs in post-earthquake Christchurch

Dace Caldwell
PricewaterhouseCoopers

In the wake of the earthquakes that hit Christchurch in 2010 and 2011, there is a highly uncertain environment for the development and construction of key civic works under the reconstruction plan. Dace will discuss the assistance that PwC has provided to the City Council’s development team, modelling construction cost and schedule risk in respect of one of its major projects. Dace will discuss the process followed, how inputs were sourced for the stochastic model, the client experience, the challenges faced and how they were overcome.

  Betting on a Rainy Day

Ben Qin
Marsh & McLennan Companies

Corporates are exposed to weather risk every day, it is sometimes an unavoidable aspect of doing business and despite the various risk mitigation measures being put in, the residual risk often could still significantly impact their bottom line. I will be presenting on examples of where we, at Marsh have used @RISK models to determine and measure the financial impact of weather risk for these corporates and how best to use these tools to identify and secure the most cost effective risk financing strategy.

  Further Insights Into The Use of Monte Carlo to Evaluate New Ventures

Dr. Clint Steele
Swinburne University of Technology

In past presentations the use of Monte Carlo to new venture analysis has been shown. The major benefit was that risks of unknown probability became more quantifiable. This helped entrepreneurs focus their skills on a fewer number of areas that remained uncertain. Since then, research into the way a model can be best set up give the stage of the venture, the nature of the venture and required information has been conducted. This presentation will share the findings of this research to that you will then know how to best use @RISK to evaluate a new venture.

  Optimisation with Evolver and RISKOptimizer

Rishi Prabhakar
PALISADE CORPORATION

RISKOptimizer and Evolver use powerful algorithms to perform optimization in Microsoft Excel. RISKOptimizer – an advanced analytical tool that comes with @RISK Industrial – builds on traditional optimization by adding Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertain (stochastic), uncontrollable factors in your optimization problem. RISKOptimizer and Evolver have long used genetic algorithms to arrive at solutions that are impossible to find using most traditional methods. New version 6.0 introduces new optimization methods that can find optimal solutions even faster than genetic algorithms.

This session introduces you to these powerful tools, showing you how to set up a model, define constraints within the model, and ultimately arrive at the optimal outcome. These steps will be illustrated by means of a detailed retirement portfolio optimization example.



Melbourne

Stamford Plaza Melbourne
111 Little Collins Street
Melbourne Victoria 3000
Australia
Tel: 61-3 9659 1000
http://www.stamford.com.au/spm

Palisade Corporation
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Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
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sales@palisade.com
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