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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
October 22, 2015 London
2015
2015
  PALISADE

Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

October 22nd, 2015 • London

London 2015 Risk Conference Brought Together Experts in Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

On October 22nd, we brought our popular Regional Risk Conference series to London again, gathering at the beautiful ‘DoubleTree by Hilton’ Hotel. This event explored quantitative risk and decision analysis for professionals dealing with risk across any industry. The attending delegates represented varied interests, from financial analysis to construction project risk assessment.

The Conference was opened by Palisade Managing Director – Craig Ferri. He gave an Introduction to both the conference and Palisade EMEA. Craig was followed by Palisade’s owner and founder Sam McLafferty. Sam’s session gave an overview to what's new in Version 7 & Palisade's NEW product BigPicture. Over the course of the day there were further sessions from Palisade Consultants, Doug Oldfield, Sarah Sherry and Dr. Javier Ordonez who introduced to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK, explained Risk & Decision Analysis Solutions and presented Best @RISK features which might not be used.

Throughout the day a number of highly educational case studies were presented by guest speakers from RD&I Consulting - Hans Schjær-Jacobsen “Financial uncertainty profiles of the Fehmarn Belt immersed tunnel project by @RISK analysis”, Department of Energy and Climate Change - Roger Lampert “Meeting the UK’s Carbon Budgets – Modelling with @RISK at the Department of Energy and Climate Change”, Captum Capital Limited - Chris Brand “So…How Does it Make Money?” and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP - Dan Zubaida/Gerard Hoey “Practical applications of stochastic modelling to support strategic decision making”.

Delegates also found opportunities to network and share ideas during breaks and the evening networking session over a glass of wine.

If you want to find out more about this or any of our upcoming conferences visit http://www.palisade.com/Conf/.

» View photos from the conference

Testimonials from the 2015 Conference

"Educative and informative conference."

Abiodun Olayide, Richmond Borough


"Another great conference. We always learn something new."

Michael Brand, Captum Capital Limited


"It was a nice conference. Helped to network with the people around the same business as well as learn the new @RISK features."

Ankit Bhadana, Chase Cooper

Join a Global Group

The 2015 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2015 include Rio de Janeiro, Johannesburg, Madrid, Melbourne, Munich, São Paulo, Oslo, Moscow, Zurich, London, Dubai and New Orleans.

Information about 2015 Conferences

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Thursday 22 October 2015

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:10
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri, Managing Director Palisade EMEA
Palisade Corporation

9:10 - 9:40
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Palisade, what's new in Version 7 & Palisade's NEW product BigPicture
Sam McLafferty, Palisade Founder & President
Palisade Corporation

9:40 - 10:40
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

10:40 - 11:10
Break
11:10 - 11:55
11:55 - 12:40
12:40 - 1:40
Lunch
1:40 - 2:25
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Risk & Decision Analysis Solutions
Dr. Javier Ordóñez
Palisade Corporation

2:25 - 3:10
CASE STUDY

So…How Does it Make Money?
Chris Brand and Michael Brand
Captum Capital Limited

3:10 - 3:55
CASE STUDY

Practical applications of stochastic modelling to support strategic decision making
Dan Zubaida and Gerard Hoey
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP

3:55 - 4:15
Break
4:15 - 5:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Best @RISK features you might not be using
Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

5:00 - 5:05
Closing Remarks


Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

5:05 - 6:00
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Chris Brand

Senior Associate
Captum Capital Limited

Chris Brand is a senior associate at Captum Capital Limited, which provides innovation support services to life science companies. In addition to strategic and financial consulting, the company offers a series of MasterClasses in business development: valuation of companies, licenses and technology; business modelling; risk assessment.

Chris is a PhD candidate in psychological science at Birkbeck, University of London, where he researches Bayesian modelling and decision making. He holds a BSc from the University of Keele, an MA from the University of York and an MSc from University College London. He is an Associate Fellow of the Higher Education Academy and a member of the British Psychological Society.

  Michael Brand

Director
Captum Capital Limited

Michael Brand is a founding director of Captum Capital Limited, an innovative consulting company which provides business development services to early stage life science companies. Captum offers a series of training courses in business development, including the highly successful Valuing Life Science Technology MasterClass, which has been attended by over 350 executives. Michael spent most of his career in the USA holding senior executive level positions in multi-national corporations, including a venture capital company. He has successfully negotiated international joint venture, licensing and investment agreements. He holds a PhD from Imperial College, London, a MBA from the Sloan School, MIT, Boston, and the Investment Management Certificate of the CFA Society of the UK; he is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry.

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  Gerard Hoey

Senior Consultant
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP

Gerard Hoey is a Senior Consultant in the Actuarial Services Practice within PwC. Having been at the firm for nearly 4 years Gerard’s areas of expertise are in the Insurance and Capital Projects & Infrastructure sectors. He has a keen interest in stochastic modelling, data visualisation and model validation. His clients have been both large and mid-sized insurers as well as a large UK defence client.

  Hans Schjær-Jacobsen

Senior Consultant
RD&I Consulting

Hans Schjær-Jacobsen holds a M.Sc. and Ph.D. from the Technical University of Denmark and a B.Com. degree from Copenhagen Business School. He has held leading positions in industry as well as academia. His major research interest is now in uncertainty and risk analysis where he contributed to the understanding, representation and calculation of aleatory as well as epistemic uncertainty, primarily in connection with large infrastructure projects. He pursues his scientific interests as a senior consultant in RD&I Consulting which he founded after recently retiring as a professor and director at the Technical University of Denmark.

  Roger Lampert

Senior Analyst
Department of Energy and Climate Change

Roger is a member of the Central Modelling Team at the UK government’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). Following his PhD in chemistry from the University of Southampton, Roger joined the Civil Service, carrying out atmospheric dispersion modelling and probabilistic risk analyses of radiation release incidents.

In 1990, he joined the Department of Energy and has remained there throughout its various incarnations and the fall and rise of energy and its associated emissions as an issue of concern to the government. During this time he has worked on acid rain policy, the hydrogen economy, emissions from the natural gas distribution system, combined heat and power systems and modelling of emissions from the refining and iron and steel industries. In 2000 he undertook the macroeconomic analysis of the effects of the tanker drivers’ strike underpinning the report submitted to the Trade and Industry Select Committee. He has also worked as programmer of the UK Energy Model and particularly on the linear programming based optimisation of the electricity supply model.

Following creation of the Climate Change Committee in 2008, DECC’s annual projections of UK energy consumption and emissions have included analysis of our ability to meet the statutory carbon budgets set by the committee. Roger leads on the uncertainty analysis and Monte Carlo modelling necessary to assess the efficacy of policies to meet these budgets.

Roger has a diploma in economics from the Open University and is training with the British Horological Institute to repair clocks.

  Sam McLafferty

Founder & President
Palisade Corporation

Sam McLafferty is Palisade's founder, president, and CEO. He started the company in 1984 with the release of PRISM, a stand-alone Monte Carlo simulation package for DOS on the PC. PRISM later evolved into @RISK for Lotus 1-2-3, and then for Excel. Sam is Palisade's lead developer, with over thirty years of programming experience. He works closely with the technical and sales staff, ensuring that customer feedback is heard. He personally oversees the development and evolution of every one of the fifteen software products Palisade sells. Prior to Palisade, he was a risk analysis consultant.

  Doug Oldfield

Sales and Business Development Manager
Palisade EMEA

Doug Oldfield joined Palisade in 2008 and is responsible for sales and business development in the Middle East. In his 6 years at Palisade, Doug has worked extensively with clients in lots of different industries, and has good experience of modelling business risk and opportunity. Prior to joining Palisade, Doug worked 8 years at an IT recruitment company in London, and also managed various retail shops around the UK, including "The Busiest Shop in the World" (according to the Guinness Book of Records). Doug holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Politics and Philosophy from the University of Warwick in the UK.

  Dr. Javier Ordóñez, PMP

Director of Custom Solutions
Palisade Corporation

Dr Javier Ordóñez holds a BS in Civil Engineering from the Universidad de Cuenca, Ecuador and a MS in Project Management from the University of Maryland. Javier earned his PhD from the University of Maryland performing research on project risk analysis. His current research deals with cost and schedule integration and correlation issues through the use of Bayesian belief networks.

Javier's experience is in the areas of construction and project management, optimal project and capital investments selection, earned value management, engineering and project risk analysis, and operations research applications to engineering and management problems.

Javier has taught as an adjunct professor in the Project Management Program at University of Maryland and provides training in risk and decision analysis. He is also registered as a Project Management Professional (PMP).

  Sarah Sherry

Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Sarah Sherry is a software consultant for Palisade Corporation. Sarah was previously a Senior Lecturer at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. She taught spreadsheet modelling techniques and programs in the DecisionTools Suite for over thirteen years, and was nominated for the Kelley School’s highest teaching award four times, and received it once. After graduating, many of her former students and teaching assistants seek her advice and counsel in their places of work (accounting firms, loan departments, manufacturing operations, hospitals, political campaigns, and so on), on difficulties ranging from issues with data integrity to troubles in spreadsheet modeling.

Sarah collaborated with Dr Wayne Winston on two Harvard Business School Press courses, Spreadsheet Modeling and Mathematics for Management, and she is currently co-authoring an introductory business analytics textbook, to be published by Indiana University Press.

Sarah earned an M.A. in Applied Linguistics at Indiana University and completed the required coursework for a Ph.D. in Linguistics.

  Dan Zubaida

Principal Consultant
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP

Dan Zubaida is a Principal Consultant in the Actuarial Services Practice within PwC. Dan joined the firm in 2007 and has been a Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries since 2012. Dan’s areas of expertise are in risk management systems, long term financial modelling, data visualisation and model validation. His clients have been large multinational oil & gas producers, investment banks, steel producers, clearing houses and a global aerospace support provider.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in London
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

  Conference Welcome & Introduction

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Palisade General Manager Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

  Introduction to Palisade, what's new in Version 7 & Palisade's NEW product BigPicture

Sam McLafferty
Palisade Corporation

  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst’s toolbox. Manuel Carmona will also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  Financial uncertainty profiles of the Fehmarn Belt immersed tunnel project by @RISK analysis

Hans Schjær-Jacobsen
RD&I Consulting

» Download the presentation

The Fehmarn Belt immersed tunnel project approved by the Danish parliament on 28 April 2015 is supposed to be built, owned (apart from the German land works), and operated by a Danish state agency Femern A/S, a subsidiary of Sund & Bælt Holding A/S, and financed by loans guaranteed by the Danish government. The loans are going to be amortized by incomes from the tunnel users. According to official plans construction work will start full scale this fall (awaiting clarification of three major uncertainty issues, though: 1) obtainable subsidies by the EU, 2) total construction costs, and 3) approval by German authorities) and the tunnel is going to be inaugurated and opened to public traffic by the beginning of 2022. Since the official financial model of Femern A/S is publically unavailable the uncertainty profiles presented in this paper are based on a model developed by the author and validated in terms of project payback period within an absolute accuracy of ±1 year compared to published results generated by the official model. Such features as subsidies by EU, inflation, nominal and real interest rates, depreciation, VAT, and joint taxation with Sund & Bælt Holding A/S are included. Based on publically available information the project is critically recalculated with respect to realistic uncertainty analyses not hitherto presented to the public. Uncertainty is represented and calculated by probabilistic uncertainty representation and Monte Carlo simulation by @RISK. The resulting project uncertainty profiles are presented in terms of a traffic light metaphor: Green light corresponds to a payback period less than 40 years, yellow to 40-50 years, and red to larger than 50 years. It turns out that the likelihood of financial project failure in terms of the payback period being outside of the green light zone is substantially larger then acknowledged by the project proponents and presented to the Danish parliament. This is primarily due to apparently too optimistic base case assumptions of critical, but uncertain, project variables and methodologically insufficient partial sensitivity analyses.

  Meeting the UK’s Carbon Budgets – Modelling with @RISK at the Department of Energy and Climate Change

Roger Lampert
Department of Energy and Climate Change

» Download the presentation

In addition to ensuring energy supplies for the UK, the Department of Energy and Climate Change is responsible for developing policies which will reduce the UK’s energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions are required to comply with statutory targets set by the Climate Change Committee. As part of this work, the Central Modelling Team at DECC uses @RISK to create annual projections of energy demand and emissions, most recently in ‘Energy and Emissions Projections 2015’, published in September.

This presentation will cover a range of issues relating to these projections. It will include aspects of the magnitude of the problem facing the UK, the policies that affect domestic and industrial energy users, the technical problems of obtaining and parameterising the data and the difficulty of presenting uncertainty results to the general public.

  Risk & Decision Analysis Solutions

Dr. Javier Ordóñez
Palisade Corporation

For 30 years Palisade have been well known for their tools which add additional capabilities to Excel, such as @RISK and PrecisionTree. However, this is by no means all Palisade has to offer in 2015. Palisade are seen today as a ‘solution provider’, and year on year have seen their Consulting & Custom Solutions division grow from strength to strength. As well as consulting projects this team also build bespoke application solutions for customers all over the world. In this presentation, we’ll see examples of the types of solutions on offer.

  So…How Does it Make Money?

Chris Brand
Captum Capital Limited
Michael Brand
Captum Capital Limited

» Download the presentation

Business Model Generation (Osterwalder and Pigneur, 2010) introduced the concept of business modelling as a design process, and the Business Model Canvas, a conceptual framework for designing business strategies. The Business Model Canvas has been widely and enthusiastically adopted as a simple, user friendly approach to business planning by both start-ups and larger organizations. The Canvas comprises nine segments built around the Value Proposition of the organization, which seeks to solve customer problems and satisfy customer needs. This is the usual starting point for model design, although in theory it is possible to start with any of the nine building blocks.

Included in the nine building blocks are Revenue Stream and Cost Structure segments. Because the concept of the Business Model Canvas design process is largely creative and descriptive in nature, the Revenue and Cost segments tend to be neglected and are usually not quantified.

A notable lack in the Business Model Canvas design process is any consideration of risk at even a qualitative level. The recommended procedure is to test the model in real world situations, and make appropriate corrections in an iterative process, until the model functions robustly.

Captum has designed an Excel spreadsheet financial model to supplement the Business Model Canvas as a universal, simple and user friendly approach to completing the Revenue and Cost segments. Further, by using @RISK, the risk profiles of the various scenarios developed during creation of a Business Model can be evaluated.

In this presentation, Captum will explain the risk model, and suggest how it can be effectively incorporated into the Business Model canvas design process.

  Practical applications of stochastic modelling to support strategic decision making

Dan Zubaida
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP
Gerard Hoey
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP

» Download the presentation

Demonstrate, using examples from across a range of industries, short examples of where we have helped clients validate, evidence and interrogate their strategic risk decisions using @RISK.

  Best @RISK features you might not be using

Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

In this session, we will explore some lesser known features of @RISK, “hidden gems” that expand probabilistic modeling options and analytical insights. Topics to be covered have generated enthusiasm in training and consulting work with participants from diverse domains, and include alternate parameter distribution functions; the RiskGeneral distribution function; uses of the RiskTruncate function; probabilistic scenarios, themselves employed with some probability; the use of RiskSimtable to investigate the effects of a change in decision; summarizing the value of such a change in decision; the use of RiskMakeInput to control sensitivity inputs, including to treat aggregated inputs as one input for sensitivity purposes. Other popular “sleeper” features may be addressed, time permitting.

DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel

DoubleTree by Hilton HotelThe Palisade Risk Conference will be held at the beautiful DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel

DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel
London - West End
92 Southampton Row
London, WC1B 4BH, United Kingdom
Tel +44-207-2422828.
For more information, see the hotel website.

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