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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
12 May 2015 Johannesburg
2015
2015
  PALISADE

Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

12 May 2015 Johannesburg

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day conference in Johannesburg. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“Very good conference with good usage of time.”

Mark Mendonca, Program Risk Management, Ernst & Young


“Excellent conference. If there are numbers that vary, you should be here.”

George Chiang, Independent Cost Analyst, Boeing Company


“Excellent conference. Very informative. Great topics.”

Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk Management at CenterPoint Energy


“It was a great conference that was very well organized. The round tables were great. As always, I would highly recommend your conference to others. Lastly, @RISK v6 and the interface with MS Project is great.”

Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP, Manager - Business Solutions and Risk Management / Vice President Cardno Entrix


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“It was an outstanding opportunity to update current knowledge about the software.”

Dr José Raúl Castro Esparza, BUAP


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


“Another great conference - well done! It's always a stimulating and thought-provoking experience, and great hospitality.”

Michael Brand, Captum Capital

Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer two types of sessions to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Networking Opportunities – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. Lunches, breaks and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2015 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2015 include Rio de Janeiro, Johannesburg, Madrid, Melbourne, Munich, São Paulo, Oslo, Moscow, Zurich, London, Dubai and New Orleans.

Information about 2015 Conferences

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Tuesday 12 May 2015

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 9:00
Registration and Coffee
9:00 - 9:30
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri, Director
Palisade Corporation

9:30 - 10:20
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Making Better Decisions: @RISK and the Rightness of Ranges
Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

10:20 - 10:50
Break
10:50 - 11:30
11:30 - 12:10
CASE STUDY

Investing Against Uncertainty: An Optimized Approach with @RISK
Jaco van Der Merwe
Deloitte South Africa

12:10 - 12:50
CASE STUDY

Using @RISK to quantify impact on Project Controls in mega projects
Gordon Howes
Ernst & Young South Africa

12:50 - 1:50
Lunch
1:50 - 2:30
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

The Palisade Greengrocer: @RISK is not the only Fruit
Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

2:30 - 3:10
3:10 - 3:50
Break
3:50 - 4:30
CASE STUDY

Optimising Mine Production using @RISK
Hugo De Vos
VBKom

4:30 - 5:10
CASE STUDY

Ranking risks in a programme of projects
Francois Joubert
Kwanto Risk Management Ltd

5:10 - 5:15
Closing Remarks

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

5:15 - 6:00
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Quinton van Eeden

Risk and Value Management Specialist
TPG GRC

Quinton is a decision analysis, quantitative risk analyst and value management specialist with more than 15 years’ experience in programme/project risk management. He is a lawyer by training and holds advanced level professional certifications in project- and project risk management. He specialises in project risk management and the application of quantitative analysis techniques to model and simulate the effect of uncertainty on project schedules and estimates.

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  David Holland

Senior Advisor
Credit Suisse

David Holland is a Senior Advisor to Credit Suisse and independent consultant based in Cape Town, South Africa. Until 2011, he was a Managing Director at Credit Suisse based in London. David was in charge of HOLT Valuation and Analytics, the research and development arm of Credit Suisse HOLT, and ran HOLT's global Custom Solutions Group. He was responsible for improvements to the Cash Flow Return On Investment (CFROI) framework and other Credit Suisse valuation models; the development of custom solutions and investment products based on HOLT's intellectual property; and the generation of HOLT content for fund managers.

David joined CSFB in May 2002 from Fractal Value Advisors, a corporate strategy and finance advisory business he owned in South Africa. Fractal advised on the use of the HOLT CFROI framework at South Africa's leading corporations, parastatals and asset management firms.

David's experience is quite varied. Before becoming expert on the measurement of cash flow, he was an expert in measuring fluid flow, giving presentations throughout the world on the subject of rheology. David holds degrees in Chemical Engineering from the University of Illinois (BS) and Stanford University (MS). He earned his MBA at the University of Cape Town. He recently earned a professional certificate in Strategic Decision and Risk Management from Stanford University. He has presented at investment conferences, lectured at universities and written a book on equity valuation, “Beyond Earnings: A User’s Guide to Excess Return Models and the HOLT CFROI Framework.”

  Gordon Howes

Associate Director
Ernst & Young South Africa

For the last 10 years Gordon have applied himself and become an expert in the field of project and corporate risk management. He has facilitated over 500 hours of risk workshops, has developed qualitative and quantitative risk registers, risk policies, risk appetite and tolerance statements, risk frameworks, risk reporting, and constructed risk management procedures in line with client’s internal risk regulatory control systems. He was the manager of the Risk Services for Africa at Turner & Townsend where he managed risk managers. He was a manager at Marsh for the Risk Analytics Business Unit, where he led the calculations of insurance structures for Marsh clients, and also advised on the risk management procedures and controls of large blue chip clients. Gordon was the risk lead on a multibillion dollar oil & gas Transnet project (540km pipeline, 2 x 12 x tank farms, pump stations, control system, and operations centre) for 3 years where he also managed a team of risk managers. He has completed multi projects in oil & gas, LNG plants in Doha, analysing cost and schedule risk, as well as African projects for Transnet, Anglo American, ThyssenKrupp, BP and Sasol determining EPC projected milestone dates variances with risk loaded schedules. He led the risk procedures of the concept, feasibility, and FEL1 stages of the new Durban Harbour in South Africa, a 15 Billion USD project. He has completed multi projects in Energy, utilising his expert capability in Monte Carlo Simulation analysis using Palisade’s @RISK, Oracle Primavera Schedule Risk analysis, and engineering background. Projects include Power stations and a string of mining projects. He is a Project Management Professional (PMI-PMP). In the last 10 years his project risk experience was at a very high level and mostly in large scale projects in oil & gas, ports, mining, energy, and construction infrastructure. In 2012 Gordon won the SA Risk Manager award sanctioned by the South African Institute of Risk Management (IRMSA), where he is also a senior associate member.

  Francois Joubert

Principal Consultant
Kwanto Risk Management Ltd.

Areas of Expertise: Project Risk Management, Construction, Engineering, Facilitation, Public Sector Capital Projects, Risk Management Process and Training, Risk Auditing, Value Engineering.

Francois Joubert, the Principal Consultant, is a project risk specialist. He graduated as a mechanical engineer in 1994 and has since obtained a MEng (Technology Management), MBA and MPhil (Ethics) and is planning to complete a PhD titled “Risk simulation in a portfolio of port and rail capital projects” towards the end of 2015.

In addition to his role as risk specialist, he has extensive experience on the systems and processes related to quality management, project contingency management and project change management. He served as a panel member for various disciplines on several project gate reviews.

He lectures Project Risk Management and Project Risk Simulation at the University of Pretoria as well as the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University in Port Elizabeth (South Africa).

  Jaco van Der Merwe

Director
Deloitte South Africa

Jaco is the director responsible for heading up the Short Term Insurance Actuarial practice for Deloitte in South Africa. Jaco has over 11 years of actuarial consulting experience and is the appointed statutory actuary to a number of Short Term Insurers both locally and abroad. He has also designed numerous software tools such as stochastic reserving, pricing and capital optimisation models for a range of clients, including Government bodies, Insurers, Medical Schemes, TelCo companies and Motor manufacturers. He serves on the Short Term Insurance Committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa and chairs the Professional Guidance subcommittee. He was involved in the syllabus development of the South Africa professional actuarial examinations and was previously an examiner for the South African actuarial fellowship exams. He often presents to professional bodies such as ASSA, SAICA and IISA on a wide range of topics including Solvency II/SAM/FCR, Avian Flu, Pricing, Reinsurance, Capital & Reserving and other regulatory matters.

  Doug Oldfield

Sales and Business Development Manager
Palisade EMEA

Doug Oldfield joined Palisade in 2008 and is responsible for sales and business development in the Middle East. In his 6 years at Palisade, Doug has worked extensively with clients in lots of different industries, and has good experience of modelling business risk and opportunity. Prior to joining Palisade, Doug worked 8 years at an IT recruitment company in London, and also managed various retail shops around the UK, including "The Busiest Shop in the World" (according to the Guinness Book of Records). Doug holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Politics and Philosophy from the University of Warwick in the UK.

  Sarah Sherry

Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Sarah Sherry is a software consultant for Palisade Corporation. Sarah was previously a Senior Lecturer at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. She taught spreadsheet modelling techniques and programs in the DecisionTools Suite for over thirteen years, and was nominated for the Kelley School’s highest teaching award four times, and received it once. After graduating, many of her former students and teaching assistants seek her advice and counsel in their places of work (accounting firms, loan departments, manufacturing operations, hospitals, political campaigns, and so on), on difficulties ranging from issues with data integrity to troubles in spreadsheet modeling.

Sarah collaborated with Dr Wayne Winston on two Harvard Business School Press courses, Spreadsheet Modeling and Mathematics for Management, and she is currently co-authoring an introductory business analytics textbook, to be published by Indiana University Press.

Sarah earned an M.A. in Applied Linguistics at Indiana University and completed the required coursework for a Ph.D. in Linguistics.

  Hugo De Vos

Industrial Engineer
VBKom

Hugo de Vos is currently employed at VBKom Projects (Pty) Ltd in the capacity of Decision Support Consultant, where he employs his Industrial Engineering skills to solve client problems in the Mining sector. Hugo heads-up the company’s simulation offering and specialises in numerical Monte Carlo-based simulations as well as discreet event simulation. He has employed his numerical & simulation skills on a host of mining projects over the past 6 years and has been personally responsible for the overheating of a few CPU’s whilst running too much complex calculations!

Hugo is a graduate Industrial Engineer (University of Pretoria) and has also obtained an international accreditation in Project Management (PRINCE 2 Practitioner). He is married to the love of his life, Madeleen, and together they stay in Centurion Pretoria. His interests include astronomy, technology, nature, making music, and getting lost in Wikipedia.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in Johannesburg
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

  Conference Welcome & Introduction

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Palisade General Manager Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

Software Presentations

  Making Better Decisions: @RISK and the Rightness of Ranges

Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

The spreadsheet has long been the toolkit of choice for companies looking to model investment opportunities, build business cases, and make plans for the future. Palisade’s @RISK software gives additional capabilities to the spreadsheet of choice – Microsoft Excel - for companies who want to avoid investment pitfalls, develop robust proposals, and plan for all possible futures.

In this presentation Doug will give an overview of the foundations of @RISK: probability distributions and Monte Carlo simulation. Then, using simple example models, he’ll explain and demonstrate the powerful methodology which underpins the case studies that follow this session.

Case Studies

  Analysing Systemic Risk in Capital Projects with the PDRI

Quinton van Eeden
TPG GRC

» Download the presentation

Best practice in capital programmed/project risk analysis requires that a distinction is made between systemic and project-specific risk.

The term systemic implies that the risk is an artefact of the project “system”, culture, politics, business strategy, process system complexity, technology, and so on. A challenge for contingency estimating, is that the link between systemic risks and cost impacts is stochastic in nature making it very difficult for individuals or teams to understand and to directly estimate the impact of these risks on particular items or activities. For this reason, the use of models incorporating parametric data such as the Hackney and RAND models are recommended for the analysis of systemic risk.

A @RISK-enabled Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) model is proposed as an alternative model for the analysis of systemic risk and determination of contingency. The model will be defined and demonstrated with reference to its application in a current infrastructure build programme.

  Investing Against Uncertainty: An Optimized Approach with @RISK

Jaco van Der Merwe
Deloitte South Africa

» Download the presentation

The ability to quantify risk and uncertainty is undoubtedly invaluable to any organisation. However, it is not enough to simply be aware of your risk. The ability to put in place appropriate plans and strategies with which to mitigate this and navigate towards a desired objective is of cardinal importance. One such area, where the use of @RISK has proven successful is that of investment and funding planning. This is a business question that we often receive from a wide range of clients including insurers, banks, mines, retirement & other funds. We have found that @RISK provides a very pragmatic way of simplifying and answering such questions for our clients. In this case-study, we demonstrate how @RISK enabled us to assist a large mining company with its mine rehabilitation funding. All mining companies are required to perform rehabilitation of their mining sites on closure and thus set up rehabilitation funds to provide for the significant costs expected to be incurred many years into the future. A key question that arises is how to best manage this fund & investment, in a way that minimises the risk of under-funding but also maximizes the amount of investment return on the funds. We show how the variability of the potential outflow, as well as that of the investments can be captured with @RISK, and how the use of efficient frontiers allows us to arrive at an optimized funding strategy. This case-study translates very well to many other real-world challenges such as funding for retirement or general investment strategy formulation.

  Using @RISK to quantify impact on Project Controls in mega projects

Gordon Howes
Ernst & Young South Africa

The successful execution and delivery in terms of cost and schedule of medium to mega projects depends largely on the Project Controls function. Project Controls is a definitive subset of project management and is concerned with the control of cost, schedule, and risk, and is defined with an interlinking triangular with the 3 mutually inclusive components. The management of risk within this system is key to the control of cost and schedule for successful project delivery. In order to manage risk effectively, the continuous and accurate quantification of all risks in projects becomes very important, it will provide the project owner, project manager, and project risk manager with crucial metrics to estimate final cost and completion dates of projects. General project costing and planning of projects come as a baseline, non-risk loaded; it is the task of the project risk manager to apply quantitative techniques and load the baseline with the prevalent risks and their impact quantifications, and therefore to ensure that the Project Controls function in successfully implemented. This presentation will focus on the techniques used to most accurately calculate the impacts of risks in projects using simulation software such as @RISK.

  The Palisade Greengrocer: @RISK is not the only Fruit

Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

This presentation explores some of Palisade’s other products, including PrecisionTree & TopRank, two popular tools from Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Then, we’ll see an overview of the exciting new solutions that Palisade Professional Services team have been working on.

  Money on the table: How should corporate boards and executives assess idiosyncratic risk?

David Holland
Credit Suisse

» Download the presentation

Corporate managers typically use arbitrary, in-house hurdle rates to account for investment-specific idiosyncratic risk and inflated forecasts. An ad hoc risk premium is added to a market-related discount rate, thereby creating a hurdle rate, which can turn favorable projects into unfavorable ones. Subjective hurdle rates can subvert the capital budgeting process. There are better ways to assess company-specific risk than arbitrarily bumping up the cost of capital used to discount future cash flows. In this presentation, which is based on a report issued through Credit Suisse, you will see prolific use of PrecisionTree and its utility function to calculate Certainty Equivalent values. This report is of great relevance to corporate and fund managers trying to quantify risk appetite and tolerance.

  Optimising Mine Production using @RISK

Hugo De Vos
VBKom

» Download the presentation

Determining the most economical method in extracting the maximum economic wealth from an underground mineral resource is crucial. Without good planning a mineral resource can be underutilised or "abused", and thus its full economic potential never realised. In the development cycle of a mineral resource mining engineers are tasked to optimise the method in which a resource can be extracted. Once the sequence of mining the resource has been determined, various equipment options need to be evaluated. This paper presents the optimisation of these equipment types, especially various options in crushers throughout the resource, the movement strategy of these crushers and the associated mining fleet, by using Theory of Constraint (TOC). The changing distances between the various crusher placement and movement strategies drives the usage of the associated mining equipment and thus the possible capacity the equipment can add. The mining equipment comprises of Dump Trucks, Front end Loaders, Crushers and Conveyor Belts. As the mining faces move deeper into the mine, the model adapts to the changes in distances. The @RISK model simulates various crusher and associated mining fleet simultaneously over 17 years on a month to month basis. The model was designed to simulate each month independently and results in simulating a large number of input variable for each simulation. The results of the @RISK model concluded which crusher movement strategy should be used as well as the required mining equipment required per month of the mining schedule.

  Ranking risks in a programme of projects

Francois Joubert
Kwanto Risk Management Ltd

How does one use @RISK, 86 existing quantified risk registers, some project categories, some project management knowledge to determine which risks matters most and can be controlled in a portfolio of projects?

The presentation will cover the following topics:

  • Process overview
  • Preparation of model
  • Creating output distributions
  • Running the simulation
  • Ranking the risks

The presentation will conclude with a discussion of the outcomes of the simulation results on project management.

Hilton Sandton

The Palisade Risk Conference will be held at the beautiful Hilton Sandton, located at 138 Rivonia Road, Sandton 2196, South Africa. Tel: +27 11 322 1888. For more information, see the website: sandton.hilton.com.

Palisade Corporation
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