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Palisade Risk Conference
Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis
August 27, 2015 Calgary
2015
2015
  PALISADE

Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

August 27th, 2015 • Calgary

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive 1-day conference in Calgary. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The programme will also include practical software training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

This event it is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“Very good conference with good usage of time.”

Mark Mendonca, Program Risk Management, Ernst & Young


“Excellent conference. If there are numbers that vary, you should be here.”

George Chiang, Independent Cost Analyst, Boeing Company


“Excellent conference. Very informative. Great topics.”

Laurie Rutherford, Director, Enterprise Risk Management at CenterPoint Energy


“It was a great conference that was very well organized. The round tables were great. As always, I would highly recommend your conference to others. Lastly, @RISK v6 and the interface with MS Project is great.”

Timothy J. Havranek, MBA, PMP, Manager - Business Solutions and Risk Management / Vice President Cardno Entrix


“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development


“It was an outstanding opportunity to update current knowledge about the software.”

Dr José Raúl Castro Esparza, BUAP


“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems


“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin


“Another great conference - well done! It's always a stimulating and thought-provoking experience, and great hospitality.”

Michael Brand, Captum Capital

Learn from the Experts

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer two types of sessions to maximize your experience.

Case Studies:

Hear users in the field describe how they apply @RISK and DecisionTools software to their real-life problems. Case studies come from a wide range of industries and disciplines.

Software Training:

Here’s your chance to get exposure to the latest in risk and decision analytics software and techniques. Get more from @RISK and each of the products in Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite. Sessions are taught by Palisade’s expert consultants and trainers. Learn direct from the source!

Networking Opportunities – Learn from Each Other

The Palisade Risk Conference will offer plenty of opportunities to mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. Lunches, breaks and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2015 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2015 include Toronto, Chicago, New York, San Francisco/San Jose and New Orleans.

Information about 2015 Conferences

Schedule

  Networking Sessions      
   Software Presentations      
  Industry Case Studies

Thursday 27 August 2015

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:00 - 09:00
Registration
9:00 - 9:15
WELCOME

Welcome and Conference Introduction
Jeff Evans
Palisade Corporation

9:15 - 10:00
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Applying @RISK to Your Unique Situation
Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

10:05 - 10:50
CASE STUDY

Quantifying Management Reserve Fund
John Zhao
Encana Corporation

10:50 - 11:15
Break
11:15 - 12:00
12:05 - 12:50
CASE STUDY

Probabilistic Analysis of Pipeline Corrosion Integrity Programs
Sherif Hassanien and Karmun Cheng
Enbridge Pipelines

12:50 - 1:45
Lunch
1:45 - 2:30
CASE STUDY

Novel Applications of Quantitative Risk Assessment using @RISK
Martin Gough
Revay and Associates Limited

2:35 - 3:20
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Exploring Oil and Gas Applications of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite
Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

3:20 - 5:00
Networking Reception

Presenters

  Dean Cardno

Consultant
BC Hydro

Dean Cardno qualified as a Chartered Accountant with Coopers & Lybrand (now PwC) in 1987. After leaving public practice, Dean worked with companies involved in mining, heavy civil construction, and real estate development. For the past 15 years Dean has been a consultant in project evaluation, development, and financing, with an emphasis on economic valuation and project risk identification and management. Dean concentrates his practice in the energy sector, primarily natural gas transmission and distribution, and electricity generation and transmission.

  Karmun Cheng


Enbridge Pipeline Inc

 

  Martin Gough, P.Eng

Senior Consultant
Revay and Associates Limited

Martin Gough has thirty-five years of diverse project based experience including the project management of utility and infrastructure development projects; the engineering management of petrochemical, industrial, and infrastructure development projects; the construction management of industrial and commercial project; and structural design for petrochemical, nuclear power generation, and utility and infrastructure development.

Martin has also been involved in the planning and development of numerous projects ranging from oil-sands mines and bitumen recovery plants to sustainable building design and first-nations affordable housing initiatives.

Martin has taught project management at both undergraduate and graduate levels at the University of Calgary Schulich School of Engineering, and for the Executive Education Program of the University of Alberta School of Business. He volunteers time to the Centre for Affordable Water and Sanitation Technology, a Canadian humanitarian organization providing education and training in water and sanitation technology in developing countries.

  Sherif Hassanien

Senior Manager, Integrity Reliability
Enbridge Pipeline Inc

Sherif's areas of specialty include Structural Analysis and Design, Project Management, Risk Analysis, Reliability Analysis, Structural Optimization, and Undergraduate and Postgraduate Teaching.

  Sarah Sherry

Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Sarah Sherry is a software consultant for Palisade Corporation. Sarah was previously a Senior Lecturer at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. She taught spreadsheet modelling techniques and programs in the DecisionTools Suite for over thirteen years, and was nominated for the Kelley School’s highest teaching award four times, and received it once. After graduating, many of her former students and teaching assistants seek her advice and counsel in their places of work (accounting firms, loan departments, manufacturing operations, hospitals, political campaigns, and so on), on difficulties ranging from issues with data integrity to troubles in spreadsheet modeling.

Sarah collaborated with Dr Wayne Winston on two Harvard Business School Press courses, Spreadsheet Modeling and Mathematics for Management, and she is currently co-authoring an introductory business analytics textbook, to be published by Indiana University Press.

Sarah earned an M.A. in Applied Linguistics at Indiana University and completed the required coursework for a Ph.D. in Linguistics.

  John Zhao

Advisor, Project and Risk Management
Encana Corporation

With a total of 27 years’ experience in the heavy construction industry of the petrochemical and oil & gas sectors, John has spent 8 years with international contractors (Far/Middle East), 7 years with EPC consulting firms (Canada), and the past 12 years with major oil & gas companies (North America and Europe). His knowledge, skills, and experience add value to project organizations in the specialty areas of Project Management, Cost Controls, and Risk Management.

Holding MSc. (Distinction) and BSc. (Honors) from England, John developed a proprietary RISCOR simulation model to evaluate the probability of major projects’ cost overruns at a given budget / AFE in consideration of potential delays and systemic risks. He has presented often on the topics of risk management, contracting strategy, and project contingency simulations. His presentations have included talks at Canadian Institute conferences in Calgary 2014 & 2013, SPE in Denver 2011, Palisade in London 2010 and Miami in 2007, IQPC in Abu Dhabi 2008, and AACE in Las Vegas in 2005.

John’s area of focus is risk quantification technique, but he also skillfully weaves risk practices into complex contracting and procurement strategy, which provide a semi-quantitative tool to conduct bids evaluation and contract selection. John volunteers to coach and mentor young professionals, contributing services to local universities. As an advisor developing a risk-based Project Management Gate review and scoring system, his work is applicable in the industries of energy, mining, petrochemicals, and commercial construction.

Abstracts

  Welcome and Conference Introduction

Jeff Evans
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Regional Sales Manager Jeff Evans will set the stage for maximizing the benefits you’ll receive from the conference. After reviewing the conference goals, he will give some context about Palisade as a company. He will then give a brief introduction to quantitative decision-making using @RISK, demonstrating the powerful methodology that underpins the case studies to follow.

  Applying @RISK to Your Unique Situation

Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

Palisade Consultant Sarah Sherry will draw on experience in several different industries to illustrate how you can apply Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques to your situation. We’ll review models taken from real-world problems in supply chain, project management, banking, and other sectors. You’ll experience straightforward Excel spreadsheet models as well as more robust, customized solutions built on @RISK using VBA. @RISK and other tools in the DecisionTools Suite will be touched upon.

  Quantifying Management Reserve Fund

John Zhao
Encana Corporation

» Download the presentation

» Example Model

With the rapid growth of risk management practices in the capital project world, quantifying project cost and schedule contingencies has become part of the normal project planning cycle thanks to the availability of easy-to-use simulation software such as @RISK. However, the concept of management reserve, a.k.a. a project risk reserve fund, continues to confuse many risk practitioners, not to mention the challenges of quantifying the amount of management reserve. Some scholars even suggest that “management reserve is a random figure,” which imparts a large subjectivity to its calculation. “RiskBinomial” in @RISK offers one of many ways to quantify a project risk reserve fund. This is achieved through subjectively but systematically identifying rare-event-driven and residual risk items, and then aggregating the simulated impacts of each individual risk item. This presentation will demonstrate the method to risk practitioners through a real life project example in the oil and gas industry, and will also provide a ratio comparison to simulated project contingency.

 

  Dam Rehabilitation Project using Large PrecisionTree Model

Dean Cardno
BC Hydro

» Download the presentation

The spillway for BC Hydro’s WAC Bennett Dam (which impounds the second-largest reservoir in North America, by volume) needed repairs. BC Hydro had to choose a winter or summer construction schedule. The choice affects capital costs, the risk that the spillway would be needed while out of service, worker safety during construction, ultimate product quality, and the chance of project delays. BC Hydro used Palisade’s PrecisionTree and @RISK to evaluate the trade-off between these factors, and to select a preferred construction schedule.

  Probabilistic Analysis of Pipeline Corrosion Integrity Programs

Sherif Hassanien and Karmun Cheng
Enbridge Pipeline Inc.

The corrosion threat management program is a comprehensive program with several levels of analysis. The program includes In-Line Inspection (ILI) data quality check, assessment of the corrosion threats on the pipeline, recommendation of proper mitigation, and trending of the corrosion data based on field data. As part of ILI data analysis, depth Corrosion Growth Rate (CGR) is calculated to determine the next ILI inspection required before the existing features reach critical depth. Several CGR models exist to calculate the depth CGR deterministically and probabilistically. In this presentation, the use of probabilistic models to estimate CGR, evaluate the ILI re-inspection interval, and assess the health of the pipeline with several corrosion defects using Monte Carlo Simulation (@RISK©) are discussed.

The uncertainty associated with the ILI data may result in meaningless negative corrosion growth rates. The probabilistic CGR model used in this work is based on developing a normal or Weibull distribution from the corrosion feature CGR value and filtering out the negative CGR from the distribution including the ILI tool errors. The result is a positive distribution of feature CGR. Monte Carlo simulation has been used to assess the CGR distributions and determine the deterministic value of feature CGR at any certainty level. Moreover, in order to assess the CGR at pipeline joint/segment level containing numerous corrosion features, a combined nested CGR distribution for all corrosion features is developed sing @Risk©. Further to the calculation of CGR and the determination of forecasted depths of corrosion features, Probability of Failure (POF) of the pipeline can be estimated using @RISK©. The capability of the software in defining several distributions, fitting multiple functions to the generated distribution from the data, and assessing the goodness-of-fit has been a valuable asset for this work.

  Novel Applications of Quantitative Risk Assessment using @RISK

Martin Gough
Revay and Associates Limited

» Download the presentation

From humble beginnings as a tool for stochastic analysis of future cost and value uncertainty, Monte Carlo probabilistic analysis has become the application of choice for quantitative analysis wherever metrics can be expressed as expected future numeric data. This presentation will introduce novel uses of quantitative stochastic analysis. Topics include analysing past uncertainty (claims analysis and lessons learned); a quantitative technique for analyzing non-quantitative risk outcomes (such as reputation and other corporate enterprise concerns); and uncertainty-based planning (a precursor to detailed scheduling). The presentation will also anticipate the next step of developing a unified enterprise-level risk report consisting of concomitant risk input from multiple business units.

  Exploring Oil and Gas Applications of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

The DecisionTools Suite is widely used in oil and gas exploration, production, and project decisions. For decades, @RISK has helped engineers and finance managers estimate unknown reserves, value new projects against each other, and craft optimal strategies. PrecisionTree, another tool in the DecisionTools Suite, is commonly used for drilling strategy discussions, production siting problems, and other multi-stage, sequential decisions. RISKOptimizer comes into play when companies need to determine the best “mix” of projects in their portfolio in order to maximize overall returns.

This presentation will demonstrate how @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite can be applied to common types of issues faced by oil and gas producers, such as: estimation of unknown reserves, analysis of multi-play concessions, structure of complex partnership agreements, optimization of uncertain project portfolios, and more.

International Hotel Calgary


The Palisade Risk Conference will be held at the beautiful International Hotel Calgary

Address: 220 4th Avenue SW, Calgary, AB T2P 0H5
Phone: 1 800-661-8627
Website: International Hotel Calgary

Palisade Corporation
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Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
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