Monday 31 March 2014
Schedule is subject to change without notice.
On March 31st, we brought our popular Regional Risk Conference series to Copenhagen, gathering at the Bella Sky Comwell hotel. This event explored quantitative risk and decision analysis for professionals dealing with risk across any industry. The attending delegates represented varied interests, from financial analysis to construction project risk assessment.
The Conference was opened by Palisade Business Development Manager Manuel Carmona. He gave an overview of Palisade, and a presentation on "The Power of Probability” including hints and tips on @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite. Over the course of the day there were further sessions from Palisade Consultants Sarah Sherry and Dr. Javier Ordóñez, who demonstrated what to pay attention to when selecting the right distribution, how to simplify, automate and customise models, as well as improving the usability and accessibility of the methodologies and tools across the enterprise.
Throughout the day a number of highly educational and thought provoking case studies were presented. Laurits Søgaard Nielsen of Visual Reporting ApS delivered “A Generic Business Case Model in Excel using @RISK.” Hans Schjær-Jacobsen of the Technical University of Denmark spoke about “True Worst and Best-case Analysis of Economic Project Uncertainty by @RISK.” Hans Læssøe of Lego Group addressed “Three Examples of Value from @RISK in Decision Making at the LEGO Group,” and Frank Lyhne Hansen of Deloitte presented “Using @RISK to Help Optimise Start-Up Companies in the FSI Segment.” These presentations covered industry case studies from fields as diverse as finance, optimisation, project management and business development. View presentations below in the Abstracts section.
Delegates also took advantage of one-to-one Expert Sessions. Offered by Palisade consultants and technical experts, these hands-on consulting sessions helped participants improve their risk models and answer problematic questions.
Delegates also found opportunities to network and share ideas during breaks and the evening networking session over a glass of wine. See images from the event in the Photo Gallery.
The 2014 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2014 include Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Dubai, Madrid, London, Frankfurt, and Johannesburg, with more dates to come.
Schedule is subject to change without notice.
Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.
Manuel joined Palisade UK Ltd in 2003 as European sales director. He currently works with Palisade’s European customers to help them implement @RISK and other Palisade products in their organisations. He has spent most of his career in Europe working in various management and business development positions in the software industry. In 1994 he received a diploma in Computing for Commerce and Industry from the University of Barcelona, and an MBA from the University of Westminster in 2002.
Laurits Søgaard Nielsen is the CEO of Visual Reporting ApS – a small company working with Excel modelling, data visualisation and programming. Visual Reporting ApS works for small companies as well as large corporations and have built the Danish Government Business Case Model for large IT projects.
Sarah Sherry is a software consultant for Palisade Corporation. Sarah was previously a Senior Lecturer at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. She taught spreadsheet modelling techniques and programs in the DecisionTools Suite for over thirteen years, and was nominated for the Kelley School’s highest teaching award four times, and received it once. After graduating, many of her former students and teaching assistants seek her advice and counsel in their places of work (accounting firms, loan departments, manufacturing operations, hospitals, political campaigns, and so on), on difficulties ranging from issues with data integrity to troubles in spreadsheet modelling.
Sarah collaborated with Dr Wayne Winston on two Harvard Business School Press courses, Spreadsheet Modeling and Mathematics for Management, and she is currently co-authoring an introductory business analytics textbook, to be published by Indiana University Press.
Sarah earned an M.A. in Applied Linguistics at Indiana University and completed the required coursework for a Ph.D. in Linguistics.
Hans Schjær-Jacobsen is Professor at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). He was Rector of the Copenhagen University College of Engineering prior to its merger with DTU by January 1, 2013. He obtained his Masters and Ph.D. degrees in Electrical Engineering from DTU and a business degree from Copenhagen Business School. Before joining the academic world he held leading positions in industry. The current research interest of Hans Schjær-Jacobsen is focused on theoretical and practical methods for risk and uncertainty management comprising possibility and probability methods for modelling and calculation of economic uncertainty.
Dr Javier Ordóñez holds a BS in Civil Engineering from the Universidad de Cuenca, Ecuador and a MS in Project Management from the University of Maryland. Javier earned his PhD from the University of Maryland performing research on project risk analysis. His current research deals with cost and schedule integration and correlation issues through the use of Bayesian belief networks.
Javier's experience is in the areas of construction and project management, optimal project and capital investments selection, earned value management, engineering and project risk analysis, and operations research applications to engineering and management problems.
Javier has taught as an adjunct professor in the Project Management Program at University of Maryland and provides training in risk and decision analysis. He is also registered as a Project Management Professional (PMP).
Hans Læssøe, M.Sc., is the LEGO Group head of and senior director on strategic risk management, a function he established in 2006 and 2007. Læssøe has more than 30 years of LEGO Group experience from a number of areas which provides him with a strong business insight and network to drive the task of proactive strategic risk management. He is a founding member of a Danish ERM network, an executive member of the European Council of Risk Management, and a specialist member of the IRM. He is a member of the RIMS Strategic Risk Management Development Council. The LEGO Group and Læssøe have won multiple European awards for its unique risk management approach. Læssøe has authored and co-authored articles in international magazines and speaks at international risk management conferences.
Frank has extensive experience in operational, financial and strategic risk management. This includes the development, description and analysis of models as well as implementation, discussion and elaboration of economic models for the total economic optimisation and preparation of management reporting.
Frank has served as project and program manager on several major projects both in Denmark and abroad. In addition, Frank has longtime experience as an associate professor in the finance department of Copenhagen Business School, where he teaches risk management. Frank has taught at CBS since 1996 and has a large network and extensive experience teaching risk management, statistics and finance.
Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in Copenhagen
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)
Palisade’s European Managing Director, Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve likely been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” Today many companies are still trying to figure out how to grapple with risk, and how to unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. Craig will explore these concepts using case studies to illustrate how some companies have been particularly successful in this area.
This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK and the other products in the DecisionTools Suite, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst’s toolbox. Manuel Carmona will also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.
Visual Reporting has built a generic Excel model for standardised reporting of business cases for small or large projects. We will talk about how this model can be used to improve risk assessment of projects using Monte Carlo simulation as well as how you as a modeler can use Test Driven Development in Excel to ensure the quality of the Excel models you build. The model we present is a generic business case model that standardised input and output for any business case – and it allows for better management comparison of different projects in a large portfolio of projects.
This session covers the choice of the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.
Large projects are most often characterised by cost overruns and shortfall of benefits and a number of explanations of this have been suggested, such as optimism bias, strategic misinterpretation (deception) and selection bias. Recently, inspired by the Black Swann metaphor by Taleb, alternative explanations along the lines of events with vanishing likelihood of occurrence but with extreme impact have been proposed. The purpose of this paper is to further investigate possible reasons for the observed large discrepancies between ex ante predictions of project performance with ex post realisation. A central concept is true worst and best case analysis: We want to identify the ultimate extreme outcomes of any uncertain project performance variable (like cost, cost-benefit ratio, payback time or net present value) given a set of uncertain input variables defined on finite domains as triangular probability or possibility distributions. It is shown that true worst and best case results can be readily obtained with a standard economic model by appropriate interval analysis methods as well as @RISK Monte Carlo simulation, provided correlation is substantial. Practical examples of investment in large infrastructure projects with many uncertain variables are presented.
@RISK and DecisionTools Suite software ship with fully-featured development environments that allow you to create custom applications using Palisade technology directly in Excel (Excel Developer Kits or XDKs). You can customise the application interface to include only what the users need, hiding unused @RISK functionality and preventing user access to the underlying model logic. You can also automate processes like reporting, generating only the charts and data you want. The result is a perfectly tailored application ready to roll out to your workgroup. And because the application is in Excel, the training required for users is minimal.
Palisade Custom Development has written applications for cost estimation, asset management, retirement planning, oil and gas prospecting, and more – all utilising @RISK technology in Excel. In this presentation, we will cover as many examples of custom applications as time allows.
In addition to being a CEO and owner of his own company, over the past decade Frank has also held senior consulting positions at Marsh, PricewaterhouseCoopers and more recently Deloitte. At all of these he has used Palisade tools to help in the analysis of risk and decision-making. During this presentation Frank will talk about how he has used his wealth of experience, @RISK and quantitative methodologies to start up his own bank and insurance company.
Palisade Risk Conference at the Bella Sky Comwell in Copenhagen
Palisade's Sarah Sherry and Javier Ordóñez
Palisade's Jacky Pey and Sarah Sherry greet delegates at the Copenhagen conference.
Break time and networking, enjoying the Bella Sky Comwell.