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2014
PALISADE

Regional Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

March 31st, 2014 • Copenhagen
2014
  PALISADE

Regional Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

March 31st, 2014, Copenhagen, Denmark

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

On March 31st, we brought our popular Regional Risk Conference series to Copenhagen, gathering at the Bella Sky Comwell hotel. This event explored quantitative risk and decision analysis for professionals dealing with risk across any industry. The attending delegates represented varied interests, from financial analysis to construction project risk assessment.

The Conference was opened by Palisade Business Development Manager Manuel Carmona. He gave an overview of Palisade, and a presentation on "The Power of Probability” including hints and tips on @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite. Over the course of the day there were further sessions from Palisade Consultants Sarah Sherry and Dr. Javier Ordóñez, who demonstrated what to pay attention to when selecting the right distribution, how to simplify, automate and customise models, as well as improving the usability and accessibility of the methodologies and tools across the enterprise.

Throughout the day a number of highly educational and thought provoking case studies were presented. Laurits Søgaard Nielsen of Visual Reporting ApS delivered “A Generic Business Case Model in Excel using @RISK.” Hans Schjær-Jacobsen of the Technical University of Denmark spoke about “True Worst and Best-case Analysis of Economic Project Uncertainty by @RISK.” Hans Læssøe of Lego Group addressed “Three Examples of Value from @RISK in Decision Making at the LEGO Group,” and Frank Lyhne Hansen of Deloitte presented “Using @RISK to Help Optimise Start-Up Companies in the FSI Segment.” These presentations covered industry case studies from fields as diverse as finance, optimisation, project management and business development. View presentations below in the Abstracts section.

Delegates also took advantage of one-to-one Expert Sessions. Offered by Palisade consultants and technical experts, these hands-on consulting sessions helped participants improve their risk models and answer problematic questions.

Delegates also found opportunities to network and share ideas during breaks and the evening networking session over a glass of wine. See images from the event in the Photo Gallery.

Join a Global Group

The 2014 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2014 include Copenhagen, Amsterdam, Dubai, Madrid, London, Frankfurt, and Johannesburg, with more dates to come.

Information about 2014 Conferences

Schedule

  Networking Sessions      
  Case Studies      
  Software Training

Monday 31 March 2014

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

08:30 - 09:00
Registration and Coffee
09:00 - 09:30
WELCOME

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

09:30 - 11:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Introduction to @RISK & DecisionTools Suite: Overview, Hints & Tips
Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

11:00 - 11:30
Break
11:30 - 12:15
CASE STUDY

A Generic Business Case Model in Excel using @RISK
Laurits Søgaard Nielsen
Visual Reporting ApS

12:15 - 1:00
SOFTWARE TRAINING

Selecting the Right Distribution in @RISK 6
Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

1:00 - 2:00
Lunch
2:00 - 2:45
CASE STUDY

True Worst and Best-case Analysis of Economic Project Uncertainty by @RISK
Hans Schjær-Jacobsen
Technical University of Denmark

2:45 - 3:30
3:30 - 4:00
Break
4:00 - 4:45
4:45 - 5:30
CASE STUDY

Using @RISK to Help Optimise Start-Up Companies in the FSI Segment
Frank Lyhne Hansen
2L Consulting
Deloitte

Closing Remarks



5:30 - 6:30
Reception

Presenters

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  Manuel Carmona

Business Development Manager
Palisade EMEA, UK

Manuel joined Palisade UK Ltd in 2003 as European sales director. He currently works with Palisade’s European customers to help them implement @RISK and other Palisade products in their organisations. He has spent most of his career in Europe working in various management and business development positions in the software industry. In 1994 he received a diploma in Computing for Commerce and Industry from the University of Barcelona, and an MBA from the University of Westminster in 2002.

  Laurits Søgaard Nielsen

CEO
Visual Reporting ApS

Laurits Søgaard Nielsen is the CEO of Visual Reporting ApS – a small company working with Excel modelling, data visualisation and programming. Visual Reporting ApS works for small companies as well as large corporations and have built the Danish Government Business Case Model for large IT projects.

  Sarah Sherry

Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Sarah Sherry is a software consultant for Palisade Corporation. Sarah was previously a Senior Lecturer at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. She taught spreadsheet modelling techniques and programs in the DecisionTools Suite for over thirteen years, and was nominated for the Kelley School’s highest teaching award four times, and received it once. After graduating, many of her former students and teaching assistants seek her advice and counsel in their places of work (accounting firms, loan departments, manufacturing operations, hospitals, political campaigns, and so on), on difficulties ranging from issues with data integrity to troubles in spreadsheet modelling.

Sarah collaborated with Dr Wayne Winston on two Harvard Business School Press courses, Spreadsheet Modeling and Mathematics for Management, and she is currently co-authoring an introductory business analytics textbook, to be published by Indiana University Press.

Sarah earned an M.A. in Applied Linguistics at Indiana University and completed the required coursework for a Ph.D. in Linguistics.

  Dr Hans Schjær-Jacobsen

Director, Vice Dean, Professor
Technical University of Denmark

Hans Schjær-Jacobsen is Professor at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). He was Rector of the Copenhagen University College of Engineering prior to its merger with DTU by January 1, 2013. He obtained his Masters and Ph.D. degrees in Electrical Engineering from DTU and a business degree from Copenhagen Business School. Before joining the academic world he held leading positions in industry. The current research interest of Hans Schjær-Jacobsen is focused on theoretical and practical methods for risk and uncertainty management comprising possibility and probability methods for modelling and calculation of economic uncertainty.

  Dr Javier Ordóñez

Director of Custom Solutions
Palisade Corporation

Dr Javier Ordóñez holds a BS in Civil Engineering from the Universidad de Cuenca, Ecuador and a MS in Project Management from the University of Maryland. Javier earned his PhD from the University of Maryland performing research on project risk analysis. His current research deals with cost and schedule integration and correlation issues through the use of Bayesian belief networks.

Javier's experience is in the areas of construction and project management, optimal project and capital investments selection, earned value management, engineering and project risk analysis, and operations research applications to engineering and management problems.

Javier has taught as an adjunct professor in the Project Management Program at University of Maryland and provides training in risk and decision analysis. He is also registered as a Project Management Professional (PMP).

  Hans Læssøe

Head of and Senior Director of Strategic Risk Management
The LEGO Group

Hans Læssøe, M.Sc., is the LEGO Group head of and senior director on strategic risk management, a function he established in 2006 and 2007. Læssøe has more than 30 years of LEGO Group experience from a number of areas which provides him with a strong business insight and network to drive the task of proactive strategic risk management. He is a founding member of a Danish ERM network, an executive member of the European Council of Risk Management, and a specialist member of the IRM. He is a member of the RIMS Strategic Risk Management Development Council. The LEGO Group and Læssøe have won multiple European awards for its unique risk management approach. Læssøe has authored and co-authored articles in international magazines and speaks at international risk management conferences.

  Frank Lyhne Hansen

Director
Deloitte

Owner
2L Consulting

Frank has extensive experience in operational, financial and strategic risk management. This includes the development, description and analysis of models as well as implementation, discussion and elaboration of economic models for the total economic optimisation and preparation of management reporting.

Frank has served as project and program manager on several major projects both in Denmark and abroad. In addition, Frank has longtime experience as an associate professor in the finance department of Copenhagen Business School, where he teaches risk management. Frank has taught at CBS since 1996 and has a large network and extensive experience teaching risk management, statistics and finance.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in Copenhagen
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

Plenary Sessions

  Welcome: Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Palisade’s European Managing Director, Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve likely been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” Today many companies are still trying to figure out how to grapple with risk, and how to unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. Craig will explore these concepts using case studies to illustrate how some companies have been particularly successful in this area.

  Introduction to @RISK & the DecisionTools Suite: Overview, Hints & Tips

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK and the other products in the DecisionTools Suite, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst’s toolbox. Manuel Carmona will also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  A generic Business Case Model in Excel using @RISK

Laurits Søgaard Nielsen
Visual Reporting ApS

Visual Reporting has built a generic Excel model for standardised reporting of business cases for small or large projects. We will talk about how this model can be used to improve risk assessment of projects using Monte Carlo simulation as well as how you as a modeler can use Test Driven Development in Excel to ensure the quality of the Excel models you build. The model we present is a generic business case model that standardised input and output for any business case – and it allows for better management comparison of different projects in a large portfolio of projects.

  Selecting the Right Distribution in @RISK 6

Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

This session covers the choice of the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.

  True Worst and Best Case Analysis of Economic Project Uncertainty by @RISK

Hans Schjær-Jacobsen
Technical University of Denmark

» Download the presentation

Large projects are most often characterised by cost overruns and shortfall of benefits and a number of explanations of this have been suggested, such as optimism bias, strategic misinterpretation (deception) and selection bias. Recently, inspired by the Black Swann metaphor by Taleb, alternative explanations along the lines of events with vanishing likelihood of occurrence but with extreme impact have been proposed. The purpose of this paper is to further investigate possible reasons for the observed large discrepancies between ex ante predictions of project performance with ex post realisation. A central concept is true worst and best case analysis: We want to identify the ultimate extreme outcomes of any uncertain project performance variable (like cost, cost-benefit ratio, payback time or net present value) given a set of uncertain input variables defined on finite domains as triangular probability or possibility distributions. It is shown that true worst and best case results can be readily obtained with a standard economic model by appropriate interval analysis methods as well as @RISK Monte Carlo simulation, provided correlation is substantial. Practical examples of investment in large infrastructure projects with many uncertain variables are presented.

  Custom Solutions: Simplify, Automate and Customise your Models, and Improve the Usability across the Enterprise

Dr Javier Ordoñez
Palisade Corporation

@RISK and DecisionTools Suite software ship with fully-featured development environments that allow you to create custom applications using Palisade technology directly in Excel (Excel Developer Kits or XDKs). You can customise the application interface to include only what the users need, hiding unused @RISK functionality and preventing user access to the underlying model logic. You can also automate processes like reporting, generating only the charts and data you want. The result is a perfectly tailored application ready to roll out to your workgroup. And because the application is in Excel, the training required for users is minimal.

Palisade Custom Development has written applications for cost estimation, asset management, retirement planning, oil and gas prospecting, and more – all utilising @RISK technology in Excel. In this presentation, we will cover as many examples of custom applications as time allows.

  Three Examples of Value from @RISK in Decision Making at the LEGO Group

Hans Læssøe
The Lego Group

» Download the presentation

  1. Risk exposure consolidation and alignment with a risk tolerance
    This is based on the way we consolidate the exposure of our ERM risk portfolio and monitor this exposure vs. a defined risk tolerance … and also how we have actively used this to discuss taking on more risks (rather than relentlessly being paranoid risk averse)
  2. Cross project risk consolidation and management reporting
    This is about having a set of risks and opportunities for each of a set of major business projects … and how we use @RISK to consolidate the exposure across projects and report to management on overall certainty of success key risks (across projects) to which they should direct their attention
  3. Performance analysis and volatility assessment
    This is about how we have used @RISK to analyse past performance and performance volatility in order to enable a valid simulation on the planned performance … and hence provide management with a simulation based range of potential outcomes on e.g. earning. In fact this eventually has led to us abandoning doing budgets as the real value was much less than the turmoil and burden of doing it.

  Using @RISK to Help Optimise Start-Up Companies in the FSI Segment

Frank Lyhne Hansen
2L Consulting
Deloitte

» Download the presentation

In addition to being a CEO and owner of his own company, over the past decade Frank has also held senior consulting positions at Marsh, PricewaterhouseCoopers and more recently Deloitte. At all of these he has used Palisade tools to help in the analysis of risk and decision-making. During this presentation Frank will talk about how he has used his wealth of experience, @RISK and quantitative methodologies to start up his own bank and insurance company.

Bella Sky Comwell

The Palisade Risk Conference will be held at the beautiful Bella Sky Comwell hotel at Center Boulevard 5, 2300 København S, Denmark. Tel +45 3247 3000, email hotel@bellasky.dk. For more information, see the hotel website.

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