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2014
PALISADE EMEA

Regional Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

October 7th, London
2014
  PALISADE EMEA

Regional Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

October 7th, London

London 2014 Risk Conference Brought Together Experts in Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

On October 7th, we brought our popular Regional Risk Conference series to London again, gathering at the beautiful ‘DoubleTree by Hilton’ Hotel. This event explored quantitative risk and decision analysis for professionals dealing with risk across any industry. The attending delegates represented varied interests, from financial analysis to construction project risk assessment.

The Conference was opened by Palisade Managing Director, Craig Ferri. He gave an Introduction to Palisade, and a presentation on "The World of Probabilistic Analysis”. Over the course of the day there were further sessions from Palisade Consultants Doug Oldfield, Sarah Sherry, Manuel Carmona and Dr. Javier Ordonez who demonstrated how to get the most out of @RISK, introduced the DecisionTools Suite, explained the conundrum of selecting the right distribution, described ‘50 Shades of Optimization’ with RISKOptimizer, as well as suggested how to customise the applications you want and improve usability across the enterprise.

Throughout the day a number of highly educational and thought provoking case studies were presented by guest speakers from Cranfield University - Dr Athanasios Kolios “Multi-disciplinary risk assessment under uncertain inputs”, Peter Wood Associates and Halfacre - Peter Wood & Dean Halfacre “Project Risk Analysis - the Devil vs. the Helicopter”, Risk Advantage Limited - Peter Campbell “Risk Registers Made Easy”, and The Strategic Decision Group - Ritske Van der Meer “Number Cruncher or Decision Professional?”. The keynote presentation was both an interactive and educational session from Unilever’s - Andrew Evans, titled “What's in a Decision?”

» View presentations in the Abstracts section

Delegates also took advantage of one-to-one ‘Expert Sessions’. These were offered by Palisade consultants and technical experts, these hands-on, consulting sessions helped some of the participants improve their risk models and answer some problematic questions.

If you want to find out more about this or any of our upcoming conferences visit http://www.palisade.com/Conf/.

» View photos from the conference

Join a Global Group

The 2014 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis. Events in 2014 include London, Amsterdam, Dubai, Madrid, London, Frankfurt, and Johannesburg, with more dates to come.

» Information about 2014 Conferences

Schedule

  General Sessions      
  Software Presentations      
  Industry Case Studies

Tuesday, 7 October 2014, London

Schedule is subject to change without notice.

 

8:30 - 9:15
Registration and Coffee
9:15 - 9:45
Conference Welcome & Introduction

Introduction to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
Craig Ferri, Director
Palisade Corporation

9:45 - 11:00
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Getting the most out of @RISK - What's new, and helpful hints and tips
Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

11:00 - 11:30
Morning coffee & refreshments
11:30 - 12:15
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Introduction to the DecisionTools Suite
Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY

Multi-disciplinary risk assessment under uncertain inputs
Dr Athanasios Kolios, Dr Arturo Rodríguez Tsouroukdissian
Cranfield University, Alstom Wind

12:15 - 1:00
CASE STUDY

Project Risk Analysis - the Devil vs. the Helicopter
Peter Wood, Dean Halfacre
Peter Wood Associates, Halfacre Business Growth And Guidance

1:00 - 2:00
Lunch
2:00 - 2:45
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

50 Shades of Optimization with RISKOptimizer
Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

CASE STUDY

Risk Registers Made Easy
Peter Campbell
Risk Advantage Limited / APM Risk SIG

2:45 - 3:30
SOFTWARE PRESENTATION

Selecting the Right Distribution
in @RISK 6

Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

3:30 - 4:00
Afternoon coffee & refreshments
4:00 - 4:45
CASE STUDY

What's in a Decision?
Andrew Evans
Unilever

4:45 - 6:45
Networking drinks reception

Presenters

  Peter Campbell

Director
Risk Advantage Limited
Chairman
APM Risk SIG

Professional Qualifications: FAPM MIRM MBCS MIET, Member of Society for Risk Analysis

As a consultant, Peter has held various senior Risk Management posts in the Communication, Aviation, Construction, Defence, Central and Local Government and Nuclear sectors supporting senior management in the development and implementation of quantitative and qualitative risk management processes. Peter produces and delivers Risk Management training and has worked with professional bodies, including RICS, ICE, IGD, APS and NEC3 providing guidance on implementing Risk Management at Portfolio, Programme and Project levels.

Peter is an active supporter of Risk Management being the Chairman of the Association for Project Management (APM) Risk Management Specific Interest Group and a British Standards Institution Risk Management committee member. Peter has been a contributing author for guides and books such as ‘Integrating Risk and Earned Value Management’, the ‘Project Risk Analysis and Management Guide’, the APM ‘Body of Knowledge’, the Office of Government Commerce Management of Risk Guide and the recent BS31100 Code of Practice. Additionally; Peter has written articles on the application and benefits of quantitative Risk Management and provides risk and estimating training, workshops and presentations for academic, professional bodies and commercial clients.

  Manuel Carmona

Business Development Manager
Palisade EMEA, UK

Manuel joined Palisade UK Ltd in 2003 as European sales director. He currently works with Palisade’s European customers to help them implement @RISK and other Palisade products in their organisations. He has spent most of his career in Europe working in various management and business development positions in the software industry. In 1994 he received a diploma in Computing for Commerce and Industry from the University of Barcelona, and an MBA from the University of Westminster in 2002.

  Andrew Evans

Decision Analyst
Decision Analysis Group, Unilever

Andrew Evans is a Decision Analyst within Unilever’s Decision Analysis Group. His role includes providing a specialist consultancy for complex projects and decisions, training and coaching colleagues in Decision Quality and developing new approaches for the application of Decision Analysis. Andrew is a Fellow in the Society of Decision Professionals, has an MBA from Cranfield University and a certificate in Strategic Decision and Risk Management from Stanford University. Prior to joining Unilever, Andrew worked in the Mobile Resource Management (MRM) sector of the IT industry.

  Craig Ferri

Managing Director
Palisade EMEA & India

Craig Ferri was promoted to Managing Director of Palisade Europe in 2005, having joined as sales and marketing director for the region in 2003. During that time the company has shown year on year growth. In addition to increasing brand awareness in EMEA and ensuring outstanding customer service, Craig’s helm at Palisade EMEA has seen the company continue to expand throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and more recently into India. Craig built up nine years’ experience of sales and marketing roles in niche technology sectors prior to working at Palisade. Key positions included global marketing director at software company Infomax Incorporated, and European marcomms manager at networking company Anixter. Craig holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business and Marketing, and an MBA.

  Dean Halfacre

Director
Halfacre Business Growth and Guidance

Dean is an Industrial Management Consultant and Chartered Mechanical Engineer specialising in Material Handling and Risk Assessments. In a career spanning nearly 40 years he has worked as a project engineer, project manager, project director, specialist consultant and analyst. Industrial projects he has contributed to and learned from include airports, factories, pharmaceuticals and transport.

  Dr Athanasios Kolios

Lecturer
Cranfield University

Dr Athanasios Kolios (DipEng, MSc, PhD, PGCAP, CEng MIMechE, FHEA) is currently a Lecturer in Engineering Risk Analysis in the Energy & Power Engineering Division at Cranfield University. Dr Kolios has been involved in several research projects related to development and analysis of complex renewable energy systems especially focusing on quantifying their risk performance. He leads the Risk and Reliability Engineering, Computer Simulations in Engineering Design and Renewable Energy Technologies, Policy and Market modules for several MSc courses and runs the Executive short course in Renewable Energy (certified by RenewableUK).

  Doug Oldfield

Sales and Business Development Manager
Palisade EMEA

Doug Oldfield joined Palisade in 2008 and is responsible for sales and business development in the Middle East. In his 6 years at Palisade, Doug has worked extensively with clients in lots of different industries, and has good experience of modelling business risk and opportunity. Prior to joining Palisade, Doug worked 8 years at an IT recruitment company in London, and also managed various retail shops around the UK, including "The Busiest Shop in the World" (according to the Guinness Book of Records). Doug holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in Politics and Philosophy from the University of Warwick in the UK.

  Dr Javier Ordóñez

Director of Custom Solutions
Palisade Corporation

Dr Javier Ordóñez holds a BS in Civil Engineering from the Universidad de Cuenca, Ecuador and a MS in Project Management from the University of Maryland. Javier earned his PhD from the University of Maryland performing research on project risk analysis. His current research deals with cost and schedule integration and correlation issues through the use of Bayesian belief networks.

Javier's experience is in the areas of construction and project management, optimal project and capital investments selection, earned value management, engineering and project risk analysis, and operations research applications to engineering and management problems.

Javier has taught as an adjunct professor in the Project Management Program at University of Maryland and provides training in risk and decision analysis. He is also registered as a Project Management Professional (PMP).

  Sarah Sherry

Consultant and Trainer
Palisade Corporation

Sarah Sherry is a software consultant for Palisade Corporation. Sarah was previously a Senior Lecturer at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. She taught spreadsheet modelling techniques and programs in the DecisionTools Suite for over thirteen years, and was nominated for the Kelley School’s highest teaching award four times, and received it once. After graduating, many of her former students and teaching assistants seek her advice and counsel in their places of work (accounting firms, loan departments, manufacturing operations, hospitals, political campaigns, and so on), on difficulties ranging from issues with data integrity to troubles in spreadsheet modeling.

Sarah collaborated with Dr Wayne Winston on two Harvard Business School Press courses, Spreadsheet Modeling and Mathematics for Management, and she is currently co-authoring an introductory business analytics textbook, to be published by Indiana University Press.

Sarah earned an M.A. in Applied Linguistics at Indiana University and completed the required coursework for a Ph.D. in Linguistics.

  Dr Arturo Rodríguez Tsouroukdissian

Technical Leader Coordinator
Alstom Wind

Ph.D. from Department of Applied Mathematics III (UPC, Barcelona), M.Eng. from Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and B.S., Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SUNY at Buffalo, NY), with 5 years in the wind industry, 3 years of research, and more than 2 years in the civil engineering industry. Professional experience focused on research and non-conventional structural design of Civil Engineering Structures, Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. Technical Leader Coordinator of Offshore Substructures in ALSTOM Wind R&D Department, Structural Engineering at SNC Lavallin for Tunnels, Bridges, and Building design; Researcher at different universities such as Kinki University & Kobe University (Japan), and Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (Spain), and Structural Engineer at AMATRIA Ingeniería. Author of two patents regarding damping devices for tower & direct drive, 8 journals and 17 conferences.

  Ritske Van der Meer

Consultant
Strategic Decision Group

Ritske van der Meer is a consultant in the Düsseldorf office of management consulting firm Strategic Decisions Group. He has 12 years of experience in technology, manufacturing, oil & gas, and life sciences. He specializes in applying decision analysis to R&D and product portfolios and he develops and evaluates strategic alternatives for new and existing businesses and assets.

Before joining SDG, Mr. van der Meer was a senior decision support analyst with ASML in the Netherlands and a quantitative research analyst with DAF Trucks Eindhoven, a subsidiary of US-based PACCAR Corporation.

In addition to being a member of the Society of Decision Professionals, Mr. van der Meer is secretary of the European Decision Professional Network Foundation (Stichting EDPN), a growing professional community in Europe. For EDPN, Mr. van der Meer organizes annual face-to-face events for decision analysis practitioners together with other active members of EDPN.

Mr. van der Meer holds an MS in econometrics from the Tilburg School of Economics and an MS in innovation sciences from Eindhoven University of Technology – the Netherlands.

  Peter Wood

Director
Peter Wood Associates

Peter is a Chartered Architectural Technologist who developed project management skills with the US Navy Europe. He then joined the engineering consultants WS Atkins and made the transition to project consultancy, risk analysis and management. His experience includes private and public sector clients in sectors including rail, infrastructure, construction, defence, utilities, process and nuclear industries. He is now a director of a consultancy that specialises in risk-based decision support to capital investment.

Abstracts

Download zip file of presentations from the Palisade Risk Conference in London
(Individual presentations are also linked below.)

  Conference Welcome & Introduction

Craig Ferri
Palisade Corporation

Palisade General Manager Craig Ferri, will open the conference by giving a brief overview of Palisade. He will then address the questions you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

Software Presentations

  Getting the most out of @RISK: What's new, and helpful hints and tips

Doug Oldfield
Palisade Corporation

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK and the other products in the DecisionTools Suite, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst’s toolbox. Doug Oldfield will also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  Introduction to the DecisionTools Suite

Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

In this presentation, we will provide an overview of the seven programs in the DecisionTools Suite. The discussions of TopRank and @RISK will assume some familiarity with the software; our goal will be to shine a light on a few lesser-known aspects of those programs. We will also deliver a basic introduction to Evolver, for optimization; RISKOptimizer, for optimization in the presence of uncertainty; PrecisionTree, for mapping out problems with a branching structure of sequential decisions and/or chance events; StatTools, for both powerful and user-friendly statistical analysis of a dataset; and NeuralTools, for data understanding and forecasting using artificial neural networks.

  Custom Solutions: Simplify, automate and customize your applications and improve the usability across the enterprise

Dr Javier Ordóñez
Palisade Corporation

@RISK and DecisionTools Suite software ship with fully-featured development environments that allow you to create custom applications using Palisade technology directly in Excel (Excel Developer Kits or XDKs). You can customise the application interface to include only what the users need, hiding unused @RISK functionality and preventing user access to the underlying model logic. You can also automate processes like reporting, generating only the charts and data you want. The result is a perfectly tailored application ready to roll out to your workgroup. And because the application is in Excel, the training required for users is minimal.

Palisade Custom Development has written applications for cost estimation, asset management, retirement planning, oil and gas prospecting, and more – all utilising @RISK technology in Excel. In this presentation, we will cover as many examples of custom applications as time allows.

  50 Shades of Optimization with RISKOptimizer

Manuel Carmona
Palisade Corporation

Do you know what kind of problems optimization solves? Is optimization too complex? Have you ever considered implementing optimization in your business? Should you attempt to build an optimization model yourself, or hire an external provider? Did you know that optimization can help your company to save money? Can you tell your goals, from your variables, from your constraints?

In this short presentation we will evaluate optimization methods, present basic concepts, discuss case studies, and list the various benefits of using optimization. We will present RISKOptimizer models from Prof. Wayne Winston’s books based on real case studies, to help you build your first optimization model.

  Selecting the Right Distribution in @RISK 6

Sarah Sherry
Palisade Corporation

This session covers the choice of the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.

Case Studies

  Multi-disciplinary risk assessment under uncertain inputs

Dr Athanasios Kolios, Dr Arturo Rodríguez Tsouroukdissian
Cranfield University, Alstom Wind

» Download the presentation

This session covers the choice of the appropriate distribution in @RISK. A variety of approaches are presented and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.

  Project Risk Analysis - the Devil vs. the Helicopter

Peter Wood
Peter Wood Associates
Dean Halfacre
Halfacre Business Growth And Guidance

» Download the presentation

Risk analysis is used in both the public and private sectors to support strategic investment decisions. Yet the people who make the key decisions are likely to recognise that at the point of commitment there remains a large amount of uncertainty and may, quite reasonably, have doubts about the reliability of results presented to them.

There is sometimes a feeling that risk analysis cannot be reliable until the project plan is comprehensive and mature, though by this point the venture may have passed the point of no return.

This presentation will look at the tensions between the strategic level desire for a ‘helicopter’ view of an enterprise, and the conventional wisdom that ‘the devil is in the detail’. It will explore areas of possible weakness in decision-making with regard to risk modelling, describe how @RISK can overcome some of these problems, and suggest some approaches for presenting results in terms useful to non-experts. It will be of interest to anyone who is presented with risk analysis as a cornerstone of decision-making, and to risk analysts who are required to present results to decision-makers.

  Risk Registers Made Easy

Peter Campbell
Risk Advantage Limited / APM Risk SIG

» Download the presentation

It is commonly accepted that Projects deliver change and change is a driver for Risk. It is also generally accepted that unless you manage this risk, project failure is far more frequent if not inevitable. However, there are some who would say that Risk Management is just a process, and is too complex and does not add value. They can easily become confused and put off by the terminology and detail being requested by a risk manager: Probability of occurrence, Cost, Time and Performance impacts, Mitigation cost, Fall-back plans, and much more.

In an attempt to reduce this confusion and show that the use of a risk register is beneficial, Peter has developed an Excel workbook that is aimed to take the strain out of Risk Management. This ‘Risk Management Assessment Tool’ uses a number of Excel functions to provide a semi-qualitative risk evaluation process that provides meaningful output data which can be used by all within a project delivery organization.

In this presentation Peter will demonstrate the Risk Assessment Tool and how this can be enhanced by @RISK to provide a full quantitative capability.

  Number Cruncher or Decision Professional?

Presentation on behalf of the Society of Decision Professionals

Ritske Van der Meer
Strategic Decision Group

» Download the presentation

The Society of Decision Professionals (SDP) supports decision professionals to become the trusted advisors of choice for decision makers facing important and complex decisions. The Society fosters collaboration, continual learning, and networking amongst its members and other professional societies and organizations so that as a growing community we can bring clarity and insight to Decision-Makers.

SDP focuses on:

  • Bringing Decision Quality to important and complex decisions
  • Providing quality insights and direction through the use of practical tools and robust methodologies
  • Promoting high professional standards and integrity in all work done by decision professionals
  • Advancing the profession to the benefit of mankind through helping Decision-Makers

In this presentation we will discuss the challenges that analysts may have to support decision making in their organization.

What are the challenges you have in supporting decision makers with making decisions or addressing risk?

Plenary Session

  What's in a Decision?

Andrew Evans
Unilever

» Download the presentation

This is the highly interactive session where participants have the opportunity to participate in a highly uncertain investment situation. Participants learn how to apply a rigorous methodology to uncertain situations and also learn about their own attitude to risk. Note, to make this simulation as real as possible, participants bids with their own money and have the opportunity to win a prize.




DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel

The Palisade Risk Conference will be held at the beautiful DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel at London - West End, 92 Southampton Row, London, WC1B 4BH, United Kingdom. Tel +44-207-2422828. For more information, see the hotel website.

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